No Moroccan Invasion of Songhay

In OTL in year 1591, Morocco under Ahmad Al Mansur Al Saadi invaded Morocco to recover his kingdom's finance from the exhaustion brought by Battle of Ksar el Kebir 14 years prior. Say, perhaps Ksar el Kebir had led to even worse financial situation for Morocco, perhaps actual bankruptcy, or that he listened to his advisors about not attacking fellow muslims, or he perhaps died earlier. Anything that prevented him from attacking. What will it do to Sahel ? Songhay was quite in her prime during the invasion, under the reign of Askia Ishaq, and was just about to consolidate into a more centralized empire. In Songhay Empire, the elite were muslim, but the majority of population still adhered to traditional religions. The collapse of Songhay Empire led to the rise of anarchy that gave way to widespread slaving industry and fertile ground for radical Jihad movements by followers of Tijaniyah Tariqat. With an enduring Songhay Empire, how much will it change West Africa ? Will we see less Atlantic slave trade ? If so, have we canceled Europea colonization of the interior West Africa altogether long before it has even begun ? How about West African society and culture ?
 
Most likely the slave trade is lessened in the Sahel, with more slaves coming from the coastal kingdoms or further south like the Kongo (major slaver kingdom). As for a powerful Songhai, it might allow for the flourishing of classical African Literature and advances in development in most of the neighbouring regions. Europe in the long run might see Africa more like it saw the Americas or Asia and not like a backwards place of savages. On the other hand, rebellion and division may emerge against centralization some point down the road, simply delaying slave trade throughout the region. Time will tell.
 
Wait, pardon me. I confused Askia Ishaq with Askia Muhammad The Great that indeed brought the zenith of the empire. Askia Ishaq only rose after a 6 years long civil war, but he seemed to have kept the empire intact if vulnerable. Anyway, without Moroccan invasion it still means that the region won't simply be thrown into disarray, but then it will raise other questions, such as whether the region will see more moderate balkanization or that there will be a successor empire. In general though, I see a more enduring unity of Upper Niger Valley region.

Another big question will be the Fula people. Will their migration be hindered or halted, or in fact will they be the next unifier of the region ?
 
Another big question will be the Fula people. Will their migration be hindered or halted, or in fact will they be the next unifier of the region ?

I was about to say that you've probably butterflied the rise of the Fula. Without the 17th-century power vacuum, they'll probably become vassals of the Songhai empire for as long as it lasts, or even be kept out of the western Sahel entirely. Songhai can't last forever, of course, but as with Ghana and Mali before, it would more likely be replaced by a successor state from within its own borders. A Fulani state might eventually arise in the eastern Sahel, although without the kind of leadership it had during the OTL jihads, it might not be able to overcome the Hausa states and Bornu.

As I mentioned to you off-list, the 19th-century Tijaniyyah expansion in West Africa, which had a lot to do with Umar Tall, has probably also been butterflied; indeed, there might not be a Tijani movement at all. The Songhai empire would probably enforce nominal orthodoxy, leading to a more gradual Islamization of the subject peoples. Some kind of oppositional Sufism may eventually arise as it did in Algeria, possibly via a Qadiri expansion such as occurred in the eastern Sahel in OTL (albeit not through the Fulani vector).

I agree with Diez Mil Cantos that the West African slave trade would be reduced. However, it wouldn't be eliminated. Songhai was an inland empire, so the slave-trading coastal kingdoms would still exist, and they'd take captives from peoples such as the Yoruba and Igbo who aren't part of the empire. Depending on when the collapse of Songhai occurs, the wars that follow the collapse might also fuel the slave trade, although if it lasts until the early 19th century, that consequence can probably be avoided.
 
Wait, you lost me. I thought the Fula were only able to spread east due to power vacuum from the collapse of Songhay. Or was it the other way around ? That the Songhay territory served as their bridge to reach as far as Nigeria ?

Also, how did the Fula convert to Islam in the first place ?

From what I see so far, that is from quick skimming in wikipedia, they seem to be the most dynamic of the Songhay subjects, and the most likely candidate to succeed the Songhay. Remember, I previously confused Askia Muhammad (The Great) with Askia Ishaq, I've already corrected that. With the Pod during the former Askia, they can butterflied away, but after Ksar El Kebir ?
 
You're right, I got mentally reversed somehow and was thinking that the Fula originally came from the east. Of course they didn't. So yeah, they'd be Songhai vassals in TTL and would spread, via the military, to wherever the empire held sway. And I could see them being the successors, albeit as a military caste of some kind rather than via the nineteenth-century jihads.

I'll still say that some branch of the Qadiri movement is the most likely form of West African Sufism in TTL.
 

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Is it possible to get a Songhai revival that establishes firm coastal control?
 
I think it's possible. By 1591 they were already pretty weakened, though. They'll might rebound, but I'm not sure. How was the climate in the region during this time ?
 
I frankly didn't know the Songhays employed the Fula like Gurkhas back then. Cool !

Like many nomadic peoples, the Fula were excellent cavalry; the Songhai empire did recruit them as soldiers, and I expect that they'd become more important as time went on and the center of the empire declined, somewhat like the Roman foederati.
 
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