No Mongol invasion of Europe

I'd say that the russians winning the Battle of The Kalka River in 1223 would be the best scenario, but that'd also require continuous competence and victories on part of the russians, including studying the mongol cavalry's tactics.
Thus, we need not one PoD for this, but a string of them.
 
Considering that Eastern Europe is steppe like Central Asia only more fertile and the sheer numbers of the Mongols, not really.Plus the fact that they absorbed other steppe tribes in the process,not to mention the fact they had gunpowder and infighting amongst some of the European forces . The Mongol Invasions were inevitable, in fact I'd wager they did as much damage as the later Conquistadors.
 
Is there a way to a avoid the mongol invasion of Europe but still have them invade the middle east?
Not really IMO : while you could fairly easily butterfly away Mongol build-up early on, at the point Mongols were able to takeover central Asian khaganates and as such have a clear door into Persia and Middle-East, they as well pushed westwards.
 
Is there a way to a avoid the mongol invasion of Europe but still have them invade the middle east?

I mean honestly, probably have the Alans/Cumans/Bulgars/Russians/Georgians agree to pay tribute instead of trying to fight :p

Which isn't the mostly likely thing on earth, granted.

Alternatively (even less likely), have any or all of the above in any combinations actually resist effectively long enough for someone important to die due to butterflies and have the next Khagan be from an opposing branch of the dynasty and more interested in going south instead of north.

Basically once they are on the borders of Desht-Kypchak, why would they want to stop until they have conquered it?
 
Considering that Eastern Europe is steppe like Central Asia only more fertile and the sheer numbers of the Mongols, not really.Plus the fact that they absorbed other steppe tribes in the process,not to mention the fact they had gunpowder and infighting amongst some of the European forces . The Mongol Invasions were inevitable, in fact I'd wager they did as much damage as the later Conquistadors.
Eastern Europe - at least, the parts of Eastern Europe which actually mattered - was not steppe.
 
Is there a way to a avoid the mongol invasion of Europe but still have them invade the middle east?
It depends on your definition of 'Europe' of course, but yes, there's a way to save some parts of Europe from the Mongol invasion.

Ögedei Khaan dies earlier, let's say after the conquest of Volga Bulgaria.
The Grand Imperial campaign immediately stops, most of the princes with their troops come back to Mongolia proper for the election of the new Great Universal Khaan.
Batu is left in his Ulus of Jouchi with bare minimum of the ethnic Mongols to consolidate the Mongol power in this newly conquered part of the Empire - and that will be taking his full attention together with keeping an eye on the long process of the Khaan election, which might take years.

If in this ATL the new Great Khaan is his enemy (like in OTL) the next years will be spend on the preparation for the inevitable clash between Batu and the new Khaan; no time for any conquests in the West.
If in this ATL the new Khaan is a neutral figure with no old grievances against Batu personally (and the House of Jouchi in general), then the Great Khaan might authorize some expansion of Batu in the West, but with Batu's local troops only and at his own risk, without too much prospects for success as in this ATL the Jouchi Ulus is dramatically smaller and weaker than in OTL.

Even if the new Khaan is friendly towards Batu, it is against the Empire's interests to strengthen the Jouchi Ulus too much. Chengizz Khan created the Mongol World Empire, but at the same time he himself started the process of the Empire disintegration by leaving his will to make an enormous Ulus of Jouchi with virtually independent ruler Batu.
Ögedei Khaan as a good son followed Chengizz Khan's will, as Ögedei Khaan felt secure having himself a lot of authority, prestige and power.
But I cannot imagine any other Great Khaan being ready to expand the Ulus of Jouchi with the help of the Mongol imperial forces - that would weaken the Mongol Empire.
Any other directions of the Mongol expansion would get the conquered territories under the direct imperial control without any Jouchid intermediaries.
 
It depends on your definition of 'Europe' of course.
Europe as Christendom Europe without the Caucasus.

Ögedei Khaan dies earlier, let's say after the conquest of Volga Bulgaria.
The Grand Imperial campaign immediately stops, most of the princes with their troops come back to Mongolia proper for the election of the new Great Universal Khaan.
Batu is left in his Ulus of Jouchi with bare minimum of the ethnic Mongols to consolidate the Mongol power in this newly conquered part of the Empire - and that will be taking his full attention together with keeping an eye on the long process of the Khaan election, which might take years.

If in this ATL the new Great Khaan is his enemy (like in OTL) the next years will be spend on the preparation for the inevitable clash between Batu and the new Khaan; no time for any conquests in the West.
If in this ATL the new Khaan is a neutral figure with no old grievances against Batu personally (and the House of Jouchi in general), then the Great Khaan might authorize some expansion of Batu in the West, but with Batu's local troops only and at his own risk, without too much prospects for success as in this ATL the Jouchi Ulus is dramatically smaller and weaker than in OTL.

Even if the new Khaan is friendly towards Batu, it is against the Empire's interests to strengthen the Jouchi Ulus too much. Chengizz Khan created the Mongol World Empire, but at the same time he himself started the process of the Empire disintegration by leaving his will to make an enormous Ulus of Jouchi with virtually independent ruler Batu.
Ögedei Khaan as a good son followed Chengizz Khan's will, as Ögedei Khaan felt secure having himself a lot of authority, prestige and power.
But I cannot imagine any other Great Khaan being ready to expand the Ulus of Jouchi with the help of the Mongol imperial forces - that would weaken the Mongol Empire.
Any other directions of the Mongol expansion would get the conquered territories under the direct imperial control without any Jouchid intermediaries.
That wil do, thanks:D
 
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