no molotov rippentrop pact

WI Hitler decided not to make the pact with the Soviets but to simply just go a head and invade Poland and start the war with no aid from the Soviets
 
there will be epic failure on the side of the Nazis as the Soviets crush the shit out of them at the Poland-Russian Border.
 
German-soviet border is further east. Soviets, seeing easy german victory decide to grab Balts while they are still up for grabs. Red Army, however, does not advance so far west as in OTL, moving from repared positions into new one which would take time to prepare. Germany doesn't get sweet deal for raw materials, but Stalin might sell them anyway, both to get money and keep Germany off his back for a while. Germany has to cough up something in return and stalin would want to right away. Germany still has to deal with UK & France so we might see something similar to OTL offensive. How successful it is without soviet supplies is anybody's guess.

If something OTLeque happens and Hitler decides to invade SU in 1941 similar to OTL anyway Germany starts further east (big plus) but advances into prepared positions, abandoned in OTL. Which one would outweight other one is hard to say. amybe they cancell each other out but i suspect soviet losses would be somewhat lower.
 

Typo

Banned
Now this is actually pretty interesting.

I can't see the Soviets immediately go to war with the Nazis over Poland, but Stalin is definitely much less blind to the idea of a Nazi invasion in the early 40s.

One interesting possibility I could see is that the western allies try to reach some deal with the Soviets to open up the eastern front in exchange for letting the Soviets having the eastern parts of Poland and the former parts of the Tsarists empire.
 
Now this is actually pretty interesting.

I can't see the Soviets immediately go to war with the Nazis over Poland, but Stalin is definitely much less blind to the idea of a Nazi invasion in the early 40s.

One interesting possibility I could see is that the western allies try to reach some deal with the Soviets to open up the eastern front in exchange for letting the Soviets having the eastern parts of Poland and the former parts of the Tsarists empire.

Well, stalin was interested in deal with UK & France but they were dragging their feet so he cut a deal with Germany. Without such deal Stalin didn't close those doors and UK & France may be interested in a deal after they DoW Germany.
 

Typo

Banned
Yes, also at very least once the battle for France goes badly Britain is going to want some sort of ally
 

Cook

Banned
The Nazi-Soviet Pact gave Stalin a free hand in occupying the Baltic States so without it not only would all of Poland would be within the German sphere but so would Lithuania and possibly the other Baltic States.

Moldova would remain as part of Rumania.

The Germans may have felt the need to put a stronger garrison in Poland and Lithuania to deter Soviet aggression, and there is the question of whether the Winter War against Finland would take place.

Significantly the Pact gave Germany large amounts of recourses from the Soviet Union, without which the German economy would have been hampered, probably not enough to alter the course of 1940, but possibly significant after that.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Without a Molotov- Ribbentrop pact the USSR will join the Allies, and enter Eastern Poland to "assist" the Poles, whether Poland want it or not. Germany can't fight a two front war at this point. Nazis lose, USSR keep Eastern Poland, and accuse the Baltic States of being Nazis, and bully them to allow Soviet troops on their territory. Then they get annexed like OTL. The USSR becomes the new bogeyman of Europe.
 

Stalker

Banned
First and foremost, without the pact with the USSR, Hitler will not risk invading Poland in the first place.
 

Geon

Donor
Munich II

First and foremost, without the pact with the USSR, Hitler will not risk invading Poland in the first place.

I have to agree with Stalker here.

Hitler would not have invaded Poland if he knew there was a chance Russia could possibly get involved. Hitler knew he was in a race wth Great Britain and France to secure some sort of deal wth Moscow. In OTL Germany won this race and was able to secure Russian assurances in non-interference in Germany's conquests.

But, if Hitler had not gotten those assurances would he have continued with his plans for invasion? The question one needs to ask here is this: Would Hitler be willing to repeat the Kaiser's mistake in World War I and fight a two front war? The fact that he sought a treaty with the man he considered his deadliest enemy (Stalin) answers a resounding no.

Here is a possible scenario of what might happen if there is no Ribbentrop/Molotov treaty.

With no treaty Hitler backs down on his demands for the Danzig corridor. He won't risk a two front war just yet. But he also wants to buy time. He attempts to pull off another Munich. He invites the leaders of the major European powers to Berlin to discuss the Polish crisis. He even invites a representative from Russia. As with the first Munich crisis, Poland, the source of the present problem is not invited.

Great Britain and France might have had naive leaders but they were not fools. They had seen just how much Hitler's word meant after the first Munich conference gave him Sudetenland. They are much more cautious coming to the Conference table this time. And they demand that Poland be included in the talks. Hitler reluctantly agrees. Stalin sees the conference as the opportunity to sell his influence to whoever makes him the best offer.

The most likely result of Munich II is that the Western powers agree to let Germany have the Danzig corridor back and "persuade" Poland (on threat of renouncing their guarantees of its independence) to accept the "minor border changes." The Western powers feared Stalin as much as they do Hitler and see a strong militaristic Germany as a bulwark against Russian aggression. Hitler uses this to get Danzig and buy time. Stalin gets parts of Eastern Poland thought not as much as he would have with the treaty he got in OTL. Poland remains an independent nation--for now.

What happens after Munich II is subject to a great deal of speculation. Consider, Hitler now has time to greatly improve and enlarge his army and can concentrate on one enemy at a time. Where do we go from here?

Geon
 

Maur

Banned
The most likely result of Munich II is that the Western powers agree to let Germany have the Danzig corridor back and "persuade" Poland (on threat of renouncing their guarantees of its independence) to accept the "minor border changes." The Western powers feared Stalin as much as they do Hitler and see a strong militaristic Germany as a bulwark against Russian aggression. Hitler uses this to get Danzig and buy time. Stalin gets parts of Eastern Poland thought not as much as he would have with the treaty he got in OTL. Poland remains an independent nation--for now.

What happens after Munich II is subject to a great deal of speculation. Consider, Hitler now has time to greatly improve and enlarge his army and can concentrate on one enemy at a time. Where do we go from here?
Germany bankrupts ;)

Also, Poland giving up anything apart from the city of Danzig is ASB. The "corridor" and anything to USSR is pure fantasy.
 
Originally posted by Geon
The most likely result of Munich II is that the Western powers agree to let Germany have the Danzig corridor back and "persuade" Poland (on threat of renouncing their guarantees of its independence) to accept the "minor border changes." The Western powers feared Stalin as much as they do Hitler and see a strong militaristic Germany as a bulwark against Russian aggression. Hitler uses this to get Danzig and buy time. Stalin gets parts of Eastern Poland thought not as much as he would have with the treaty he got in OTL. Poland remains an independent nation--for now.
What happens after Munich II is subject to a great deal of speculation. Consider, Hitler now has time to greatly improve and enlarge his army and can concentrate on one enemy at a time. Where do we go from here?

Notice, that even in 1939 IOTL Hitler did not actually demand the Corridor - he demanded Danzig and extraterritorial highway across the Corridor. To be honest, Poland had heard similar ideas even earlier and under western pressure might agree. To save face Polish government agrees to the highway and plebiscite in Danzig. Germany wins, no doubt about it. But Poland already has Gdynia, so it is not such a terrible strike, except to Polish pride. In exchange Polish gets guarantees of its independence and new borders from Germany, Britain and France.
I do not see any reason for Stalin getting eastern Poland. I'm not sure if he would have even demanded it. Too risky. It might give Poland a reason to join Anti-Komintern Pact, with full blessing from France and Britain. Hey, if Hitler and Stalin want to fight, why should they stop them, as long as they do it far from Paris and London. And if Poland gets in the way... who cares?
Of course it wouldn't have happened. Maur is right, German economy was dangerously close to a breakdown.
 
Without a Molotov- Ribbentrop pact the USSR will join the Allies, and enter Eastern Poland to "assist" the Poles, whether Poland want it or not. Germany can't fight a two front war at this point. Nazis lose, USSR keep Eastern Poland, and accuse the Baltic States of being Nazis, and bully them to allow Soviet troops on their territory. Then they get annexed like OTL. The USSR becomes the new bogeyman of Europe.

This is the most likely, IMHO, assuming Hitler gets couped by the military and the military agrees to disgorge Czechoslovakia. It could be a pretty white peace, both because educated opinion in the WAllies is that Germany deserves a place in the sun and because the WAllies leadership is going to be spooked by the Red Menace.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
This is the most likely, IMHO, assuming Hitler gets couped by the military and the military agrees to disgorge Czechoslovakia. It could be a pretty white peace, both because educated opinion in the WAllies is that Germany deserves a place in the sun and because the WAllies leadership is going to be spooked by the Red Menace.

Also with the Soviets now bordering Czechoslaviakia it might end up being more of a Soviet than a French sattelite; or you'd probably see influence wars between the two over who controls the central and south european minors. With Italy probably posturing in the process.
 

Typo

Banned
Hitler would not have invaded Poland if he knew there was a chance Russia could possibly get involved. Hitler knew he was in a race wth Great Britain and France to secure some sort of deal wth Moscow. In OTL Germany won this race and was able to secure Russian assurances in non-interference in Germany's conquests.
I disagree

This is -Hitler- we are talking about, I doubt he'd cancel case white mere days before it starts.

I think more likely he attacks Poland, then hands it as a fait accompli to Stalin and maybe work out some sort of deal from there.
 

Cook

Banned
I disagree

This is -Hitler- we are talking about, I doubt he'd cancel case white mere days before it starts.

I think more likely he attacks Poland, then hands it as a fait accompli to Stalin and maybe work out some sort of deal from there.


Agreed.

The Nazi-Soviet Pact was signed just days before the Germans were to invade Poland, all preparations were already complete; the Pact was meant to weaken Anglo-French resolve to go to war to assist Poland.
 
Originally posted by Cook
The Nazi-Soviet Pact was signed just days before the Germans were to invade Poland, all preparations were already complete; the Pact was meant to weaken Anglo-French resolve to go to war to assist Poland.

Polish-British pact was signed on 25th of August 1939, right after Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. After hearing that Hitler temporarily called off invasion of Poland planned on 26th of August (a few German units were not informed in time so they attacked, but they were quickly withdrawn). Anyway, the are two questions:
1. Would the British have signed the pact with Poland without Ribbentrop-Molotov pact? If not, I think Hitler would have attacked.
2. Would Hitler have attacked anyway against Polish-French-British alliance without having ensured Stalin's silent or not so silent support? Here, I have my doubts.
 
Possibly you would have to go back a few days to the signing of the German-Soviet commercial agreement on August 19. 1939 following which the Soviets left tri-partite military talks with the WA on August 21.

Of course Stalin might not trust Hitler to engage in a secret protocol on the partition of Eastern Europe but still to trade with him.

If there were no Ribbentrop-Molotov pact Hitler might have had second thoughts about the attack as he might have counted on the Western Allies as in the case of Czechoslovakia Allies to do his job, i.e. force the Poles to concessions to avoid war.
Had the Soviets left the tri-partite talks Hitler might discover this and use it to his advantage knowing that the Poles would get no immediate help in the event of war and thus feel free to increase pressure on or attack Poland.
Should the Poles prove stubborn but without allies Hitler's going to invade.
If the Western Allies still doesn't feel like stopping Hitler whats next on his agenda - France?
 
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