No Miracle on the Vistula

What if the Soviets had won the Battle of Warsaw, overrun Poland, and then swarmed into Germany for communism? What would be different?
 
Well they don't sawrm into Germany in the first place more likely they reach a deal with the Germans.

Remeber it was the Poles that started the war, the Soviets didn't really want it.
 
Originally posted by The Red
Remeber it was the Poles that started the war, the Soviets didn't really want it.
No, it is notr exactly true. Polish-Soviet conflict actually started in January 1919, when Soviets troops marching west met with Polish troops pushing east near a small town of Mosty in today's Belarus (close to present Polish border). Soviet forces were executing operation "Target Vistula" (at that time mostly recon mission), Polish troops were trying to stop them. It is not known who actually fired the first shot.
After capturing Vilnius in 1919 Poles stopped and started negotiations with the Soviets (Piłsudski didn't want to help "white" Russians since they were against independence of Poland). However, in early 1920 both sides were ready to fight. Soviets concentrated their forces in north, preparing to attack on Belarus front, but Poles were faster: they allied themselves with Petlura and attacked in the Ukraine, capturing Kiev. We all know the rest.
Soviets wanted that war, since they wanted to spread their revolution. Piłsudski wanted independent Poland (like all the Poles) and Intermare (Międzymorze - not like all the Poles). Neither side was exactly blameless, but it is not true that Polish imperialists attacked peace loving Soviets.
 
What if the Soviets had won the Battle of Warsaw, overrun Poland, and then swarmed into Germany for communism? What would be different?

This, we've concluded, is pretty damn unlikely. The Soviets had outrun their supply lines and their command and control was fraying, classic overstretch, whereas the Poles had withdrawn into their heartland. They had the internal LoC, and so their supply and organisation was in good shape. A vigorous counterattack was going to disloge them, and why would the Poles not launch one?

If we have Warsaw fall hypothetically... there are quite a lot of questions. The Soviets certainly won't swarm into Germany: that would be even more overstretch, and in late 1920 they weren't going to be met by people waving red flags everywhere they went. The Soviets did recognise the 1914 borders, but they had started to hem and haw about that when they thought Warsaw was within reach, IIRC. However, France still considered Germany a bigger, more immediate threat than the Soviets. If Germany helps itself to the 1914 borders, France will not sit quietly. Also, there were presumably be a Polish government evacuated to Krakow, speaking of which what do the Czechs do? And what of the Baltics? They had already made peace (in Latvia's case, days before the battle of Warsaw) but if the Soviets and Germans can make a deal, they're awfully isolated and may well have to become Soviet dependencies at least.
 
Last edited:
Is it possible that there could have been a Turkish-Soviet war? The Turks and Russians did engage in a few battles in 1921 before signing a peace treaty. Without their loss in Warsaw, perhaps the Soviets would feel confident enough to continue that war.
 
Is it possible that there could have been a Turkish-Soviet war? The Turks and Russians did engage in a few battles in 1921 before signing a peace treaty. Without their loss in Warsaw, perhaps the Soviets would feel confident enough to continue that war.

I'd be interested to hear more about these battles. The Soviets were Turkey's only friend and sponsor during the Turkish War of Independence, so I imagine they they just the two advancing armies running into eachother without clear orders (you got similar skirmishes in Poland, 1939). It would be in neither side's interest to make war: Turkey would pick a fight with its only ally, and the Soviets have to waste forces in a mountainous border area that they could be using in Europe.
 

ninel

Banned
Soviets wanted that war
Well, the truth lies in the middle – in Soviet government, there were factions, that supported the war with Poland, but there were also factions that opposed it. But I think, that Poles should get the most blame – they were fighting for lands, that weren’t their, but Lithuanian, Belorussian and Ukrainian, due to some kind of irrendentism, based on will to recreate the First Polish Republic. Not to mention the Kyïv Offensive…

But returning to the main topic, I think that Soviets after their victory would only subjugate Poland to USSR (but probably only as satellite buffer state, not part of the USSR), and thats all – contrary to the current Polish propaganda, Bolshevik goal weren’t to military conquer the Western Europe, but to have better strategical position for control of the communist revolutions there.
 
Well, the truth lies in the middle – in Soviet government, there were factions, that supported the war with Poland, but there were also factions that opposed it. But I think, that Poles should get the most blame – they were fighting for lands, that weren’t their, but Lithuanian, Belorussian and Ukrainian, due to some kind of irrendentism, based on will to recreate the First Polish Republic. Not to mention the Kyïv Offensive…

But returning to the main topic, I think that Soviets after their victory would only subjugate Poland to USSR (but probably only as satellite buffer state, not part of the USSR), and thats all – contrary to the current Polish propaganda, Bolshevik goal weren’t to military conquer the Western Europe, but to have better strategical position for control of the communist revolutions there.

My, a fellow who insists that Lwow and Wilno weren't Polish lands while referring to himself as "yet another Polish troll"! What a promising debut!

Okay, maybe I'm being presumptive, but with the Extrasolar Angel "incident" (and I use the word in the Chinese sense) still memorialised by Thande's signature I think I can be forgiven.

And he's apparently a communist, which as you all know I'm not fond of.
 

Susano

Banned
My, a fellow who insists that Lwow and Wilno weren't Polish lands while referring to himself as "yet another Polish troll"! What a promising debut!
Eh, well, I took that as a sort of self-irony, and he did argue the stance contrary to the Polish view here, so it might well be... of course, I do disagree with calliung the PLC the First Polish Republic, thats a sign in the other direction!

Anyways, yes, the common meme here that the Soviets would enter Poland like the Mongolian Horde is of course wrong. Now, much depends on the reaction of France and the UK, obviously... if France really seeks to compensate the loss of Poland as a thorn in Germanys side by aggressive measures against Germany, things could get ugly (because logically, communism might then appear very... appealing to the Germans).
 
Eh, well, I took that as a sort of self-irony, and he did argue the stance contrary to the Polish view here, so it might well be... of course, I do disagree with calliung the PLC the First Polish Republic, thats a sign in the other direction!

Anyways, yes, the common meme here that the Soviets would enter Poland like the Mongolian Horde is of course wrong. Now, much depends on the reaction of France and the UK, obviously... if France really seeks to compensate the loss of Poland as a thorn in Germanys side by aggressive measures against Germany, things could get ugly (because logically, communism might then appear very... appealing to the Germans).

Damn! PM him and he's already there!
 
if France really seeks to compensate the loss of Poland as a thorn in Germanys side by aggressive measures against Germany, things could get ugly (because logically, communism might then appear very... appealing to the Germans).

Indeed, the Hungarian Bolsheviks were quite happy to mix nationalism with communism, the Germans might follow suit.
 
According to some of the books I was reading about the Russian Civil War, the Soviet leaders had a great big map where they were tracking the westward progress of their armies in Poland while hoping it would provoke revolution further west.

However, there was also talk of some kind of deal with Germany where they'd partition Poland (again), with the Germans reclaiming the territory given to Poland at Versailles. That might be the more realistic possibility.

A more interesting possibility would be, if Poland falls at the right time, the Soviets could interfere in Hungary, which briefly had a Bolshevik government that was overthrown by Admiral Horthy.
 
Originally posted by ninel
Well, the truth lies in the middle – in Soviet government, there were factions, that supported the war with Poland, but there were also factions that opposed it. But I think, that Poles should get the most blame – they were fighting for lands, that weren’t their, but Lithuanian, Belorussian and Ukrainian, due to some kind of irrendentism, based on will to recreate the First Polish Republic. Not to mention the Kyïv Offensive…

Also Soviets did not fight for "their" lands. I agree that those lands were Lithuanian, Belarussian and Ukrainian (with some exceptions, especially regarding Vilnius and Lvov) - and did Soviet Russia ask local people if they wanted to be part of "communist paradise"? ("who says yes may put down his hands and step away from the wall").
Piłsudski's idea of Intermare/Międzymorze was not exactly recreation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. He wanted to create a federation or an alliance of states under Polish leadership - that is not the same as making them a part of Poland. Personally, I think he was too idealistic - there were too many conflicts between nationalisms/patriotisms to make it work. But if he had succeeded it would be better than being part of USRR.
The Kiev Offensive was in fact another step in Polish-Soviet conflict. Notice, that Piłsudski had no intention of conquering Kiev for Poland. He wanted to create independent Ukraine, allied with Poland - that is why Petlura's army fought hand in hand with Polish troops (and Poland paid Ukrainians soldiers badly for their efforts).
 

ninel

Banned
I agree that those lands were Lithuanian, Belarussian and Ukrainian (with some exceptions, especially regarding Vilnius and Lvov)
Vilnius and Lvov also weren’t Polish – Vilnius was the historical capital of Lithuania, and regions roughly corresponding to polish interwar provinces of lwowskie, tarnopolskie and stanisławowskie were only sparsely populated by Poles…

He wanted to create a federation or an alliance of states under Polish leadership - that is not the same as making them a part of Poland.
But it was the same megalomaniac Polish imperialism.
 
But it was the same megalomaniac Polish imperialism.

The Poles were not megalomaniacs they were frightnened. After all they had only been a proper state for over a year and it's easy to see how recon missions from a seemingly invincible Red Army would lead them percieving it as a threat.

Not that the Soviets werent a threat they just had more on their mind at the time.
 
Vilnius and Lvov also weren’t Polish
The cities themselves were most definitely Polish.
Vilnius was the historical capital of Lithuania
True, but that was at the time of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

As to main topic, I think two factors are important:
1. Are the remaining Polish forces capable of launching a timely and successful counteroffensive?
2. Does the Entente take the fall of Warsaw as sign that the Communist advance is a serious problem and starts pouring significant help into Polish forces? (More money, more equipment, maybe troops?)

If both are true, then Poland may end up in even better situation than OTL.
If 1 is true, but 2 is false, then the conflict is fiercer and a bit longer, but the end result is more or less the same.
If 2 is true, but 1 is false, then the situation may be very interesting. Poland would probably regain Warsaw and defend its independence, but wouldn’t gain as much land in the east. Also, there is a potential for escalating German-French conflict.
If both are false, then Polish Independence is in peril. Germany has enough time to organize themselves and march into Poznań/Posen, and IMHO this is not dependent on whether or not they reach a formal deal with the Soviets. In the meantime Soviets probably take Lwów and have some time to consolidate they forces which makes dodging them harder than OTL.
 
Vilnius and Lvov also weren’t Polish – Vilnius was the historical capital of Lithuania, and regions roughly corresponding to polish interwar provinces of lwowskie, tarnopolskie and stanisławowskie were only sparsely populated by Poles…

Not what the word "sparse" means. When you have a city with a clear and substantial Polish majority such as, say, Lwow in 1919, that's not "sparse." And Roxburgh is the historical capital of Scotland.

But it was the same megalomaniac Polish imperialism.

The Nazis engaged in "megalomaniac imperialism". During the Polish-Soviet War, Poland was motivated partly by a desire to defend its own newly won independence, which is pretty much the exact opposite. Even the most ambitious schemes were roughly based on Polish ethnic habitation, beefed up with the intervening East Slav countryside.
 
What if the Soviets had won the Battle of Warsaw, overrun Poland, and then swarmed into Germany for communism? What would be different?
Back to The OP ...

Well, I Probably NEVER would have been Born, as One Branch of My Family Actually Left Poland, as a Direct Result of The Soviet Loss ...

However that Being Said, The Man who in OTL Became My Great-Great Grandfather would have been Named The Governor of Warsaw or Something!

:eek:
 
Top