No Miracle of Dunkirk?

[Vivisfugue]

Quick and dirty - could the German Wehrmacht have overrun the BEF and prevented any large-scale evacuation across the Channel? If so, would Britain sue for peace, and if not, could she fight on? Would the diversion of forces and the glut of prisoners affect the front against the French? Essentially, the POD would be no "stop order" on 24 May, and the Wehrmacht keeping up a relentless pressure on the BEF and associated French and Belgians after Arras.

 

[mowque]

I know some members on here argue that the UK would have thrown in the towel.

 

[Shaby]

1. If British panic, sure, they might ask for terms.
2. This is by no means debilitating for their war effort. Troops evacuated from Dunkirk needed a year or so to recover and receive full complement of equipment.
3. Everything British did until first half of 1941 was done without any trops from Britain. Whatever troops were in Britain remained there for next year.

While there is the possibility of demoralization in Britain, which cannot be disproven unless put to real test, if they had time to cooly and rationally consider and collect themselves, they would realize that war is not lost in Dunkirk. Some argued that loss of NCOs and officers would make it impossible for British to remake their army. I guess they would evacuate as many officers and specialists as they could, just like Jerries did in Stalingrad. How much would they succeed depends on the nature of defeat and time remaining for it.

 

[LOTLOF]

Churchill would never have considered making peace.

Following the fall of France and Hitler publicly offering the British an armistice would public opinion be strong enough to lead to Churchill's fall. Whether or not England makes peace depends entirely on who is Prime Minister. So long as Churchill is in charge England will fight on no matter what.

 

[Reichenfaust]

If Churchill is in charge, then no way will the British capitulate, or request an armistice. However, how is this achieved? Stronger tank, or air arm?

 

[Saint_007]

This is assuming the Germans don't inexplicably stop and turn their attentions south instead of mopping up the remnants of the BEF, right?

Well, Churchill will have to work more to restore the morale of the British, who have just lost their peace-time army. Less of their army to focus elsewhere means a freer hand for Germany in SE Europe and the Middle East, though how free I can't say.

 

[LOTLOF]

A total defeat at Dunkirk might make the US more eager to provide aid, but even less eager to join the war. Japan would be more tempted to declare war on the UK and Stalin would see the British as being written off.

This would change in a few months assuming the Battle of Britain goes as per OTL, but even then the rest of the world might see the war as a stalemate. The Germans unable to conquer England but the British with no hope of liberating France and Europe. This could lead to a stronger peace movement and greater pressure for the British to end the war.

 

[Reichenfaust]

Yes a possible greater expansion for the Axis in North Africa. However, the Axis still have Britannia to contend with, and that is still going to be hard, and they probably will still lose the Battle of Britain.

 

[Riain]

Churchill wanted the Germans to suffer a defeat before he offered terms, terms offered after inflicted a defeat on the Germans would be much better than those offered after a string of defeats. So if the Brits only managed to get 80,000 or less off the beaches they`d still fight in order to get a win on the board before throwing in the towel.

 

[Chookie]

Quick and dirty - could the German Wehrmacht have overrun the BEF and prevented any large-scale evacuation across the Channel?

Quick and dirty answer - no. The spearhead of the Heer was the tanks which were over-extended, needing urgent maintenance and resupply. OK. they could get fuel from civilian establishments without paying, but where did they get the replacement tracks, engine parts or ammunition?

Dunkirk wasn't the only place that was used for BEF evacuation (in OTL a second BEF was sent to France after Dunkirk IIRC). Cherbourg and Le Havre were also used as embarkation ports. Hell, some troops were evacuated from St. Valery two weeks after the Dunkirk operation ended.

 

[ivanotter]

Alan Brooke was sent to France after Dunkirk to see if a British presence in France could achieve anything.

Churchill was not finished with the French operation in any way. Brooke was realistic enough to get as much out aqs possible.

That said, the German operation did not achieve its stated goal. Blitzkrieg was having as a goal: Conquer France and neutralise BEF. It was not on the carsd to have them sailing away. They should have been surrounded and made to surrender (or get killed). That was the whole idea behind it. It is stated quite precisely by Deighton in his book: Blitzkrieg.

So, let's imagine it goes according to plan: BEF (not only Dunkirk) is made to surrender, which entails all the later top generals are now POW's (Monty, Alexander, Brooke, etc etc).

UK's army of 350,000 just gone, all materiel gone, top leadership gone, etc.

If Germany would not attempt any Battle of Britain, nor Sea Lion, it would be a stalemate.

Would US support Britain? maybe not. After all Kennedy et al were not impressed with British war efforts.

Would Britain have accepted terms? If Churchill's cabinet should fall, Halifax would have been in (as speculated in other threads). That may have made it possible.

Without US involvement and with a Britain defeated on the continent, I cannot see any major European war effort.

Middle East would have been different if Rommel had started earlier (chuck him another 3-4 divisions), Battle of Atlantic would not have happened if the US didn't support UK.

However, that would all have required a much more strategic or even global world view, which Germany simply did not have at that time (Raeder was the only one trying to present a "global" war plan - much like Brooke had a "global" war plan).

Ivan

 

[MattII]

The US forces on D-Day get 3 beaches to themselves, the British get one shared with the Free French. The British may not even get to be a proper army, more a mobile reserve.

 

[Shaby]

The US forces on D-Day get 3 beaches to themselves.

Why? By that time, most of British Army would be back from Africa and I presume that in three years they might turn out enough officers to man at least few divisions in time for Overlord.

 

[Gingerdave]

Although it's debatable whether Hitler's "Stop Order" was what let the BEF escape to Dunkirk, it's not hard to imagine a TL where the BEF is trapped.

Perhaps the German advance in the north is slightly slower, or the danger from the Ardennes breakthrough isn't realised until later. Perhaps the Germans manage to get a screen of light troops across the BEF's line of retreat - nothing strong enough to stop them, but enough to slow them and allow the main German force to encircle the BEF. German casualties will be slightly higher than OTL, but probably considered justified.

There was an evacuation at St. Valery, but IIRC the 51st Division went into the POW cage there.


Assuming the BEF is trapped and destroyed, what then? I agree with the posters above that Churchill wouldn't surrender, but would the government survive? It might be enough to have Churchill replaced with a government that would make peace.

It would be difficult for the British to rebuild their army. The BEF was a significant fraction of the army at the time - the majority of the commanders at D-Day were in the BEF, usually 2-3 grades lower. More importantly, the NCOs and junior officers who built the army the British used over the next 5 years were in the BEF. Without these men, there's no-one to train the rest!

Assuming the few regulars who do escape are involved in building the new army, it may be impossible to send significant British force to the Western Desert. In OTL, the Dominion governments were upset that their armies were doing all the work - the 50th and 51st were sent to Egypt partially to calm this down. If this doesn't happen, the Australians in particular may be brought home when the Japanese start to move.

It will be possible for the British to build another army - but I suspect no offensive action will be taken until the invasion of the continent. Which will be in 1943-4, simply due to the lack of landing craft.


The scariest change may be that with the BEF gone, the Germans may decide all they have to do is take the ferry to Dover and demand a British surrender. Cue Operation Sealion . . . if they can beat the RAF.

 

[MattII]

Some of the former NAfrican forces will come home, most will be keeping the Germans pinned down in Italy. Also, the British had enough trouble keeping momentum up OTL, with a great many fewer troops, one beach is probably all they can deal with. The RN and RAF won't be so badly impacted though, and they'll probably still take Caen, but I wouldn't expect much more after that. be interesting to see how the Bulge would have played out if the allies had had a few hundred more Fireflys and Achilles to call on.

 

[Gunnarnz]

The scariest change may be that with the BEF gone, the Germans may decide all they have to do is take the ferry to Dover and demand a British surrender. Cue Operation Sealion . . . if they can beat the RAF.

They also have to beat the RN. Neither of those are easy tasks, and both are probably impossible for any Germany resembling OTL's. I don't think we have to worry about unmentionable marine mammals waddling ashore at Dover.

 

[Grey Wolf]

IF the BEF is destroyed/defeated/captured then the effect on morale is going to be immense. And don't forget, that if the Germans have 200,000+ British prisoners then making peace gets them home - that is going to be in people's minds too.

The Americans aren't going to jump in MORE if the BEF is wiped out - there was a battle royale in Washington anyway between those who thought the Germans would win/had already basically won, and those who believed the British would still prevail. Kennedy is going to be seen as vindicated in his views with the BEF destroyed, and this viewpoint is going to become more, not less, dominant on the backs of a staggering British defeat.

Also, what is this defeat going to be compared to? When had the British last suffered a military disaster of this magnitude?

And as released cabinet papers make clear 1) its not up to Churchill to decide British policy, its a CABINET decision, 2) the cabinet was not averse even in OTL to debating coming to terms, and even some of its members arguing in favour of this (despite the official histories glossing this aspect over)

If the Germans offer terms that are basically they will take nothing from Britain, and will return all PoWs, then this is going to be seriously debated by the cabinet

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[SAVORYapple]

For a good WI book on this, go read The Afrika Reich, by Guy Saville. Basically, around 1-2 decades later, after the BEF was destroyed and Britain came to terms, the POV of the book follows a British Agent as he is inserted into TTL Nazi controlled Africa.

 

[Gingerdave]

They also have to beat the RN. Neither of those are easy tasks, and both are probably impossible for any Germany resembling OTL's. I don't think we have to worry about unmentionable marine mammals waddling ashore at Dover.

Dammit, didn't make myself clear.

To be more precise, the German thought process would be: The British Army is gone, they can't stop us when we're over there, let's invade!

They'll fail, vs the RAF and RN, but with the BEF gone, the Germans may try Sealion - with the belief that all they have to do is get a corps or two across the Channel and they won't face serious opposition.

So they try, and the RN stomps all over them.

 

[eltf177]

Dammit, didn't make myself clear.

To be more precise, the German thought process would be: The British Army is gone, they can't stop us when we're over there, let's invade!

They'll fail, vs the RAF and RN, but with the BEF gone, the Germans may try Sealion - with the belief that all they have to do is get a corps or two across the Channel and they won't face serious opposition.

So they try, and the RN stomps all over them.

That's my thinking too, especially as most of the officer corps thought of the Channel as simply a wider river...