No miracle of Brandenburg

Just a doubt: this POD assumes that Empress Elizabeth of Russia lives longer in order to Russian armies defeat the Prussians. But when Peter III becomes the Tsar, even if it happens after the peace treaties, wouldn't he try to revert the decisions to benefit Prussia?

Actually I doubt it...as Frederick will almost certainly have sought the most honourable death he could find on the battlefield to allow his minister to salvage what he can for his nephew. Prussia will be seeking an armistice almost certainly by the fall of '62 at the latest, and Frederick will probably have died in battle during the Spring or Summer campaigns. With Prussia seeking terms, the British have to make a major diplomatic decision. They either come to the table while they are still ahead or watch their bargaining chips on the continent disappear. Al their gains and strengths that remain are overseas.

Spain and Portugal are both new combatants In terms of armies, the French Spanish are probably the stronger against the British Portuguese...and if the war drags on for them...a siege of Gibralter at some point is inevitable. At sea the forces still favour the R/N and Portuguese but the disparity is not as great, and if Portugal were to be defeated at some point on land? The R/N will be hard pressed. It only takes one fleet with regular troops to successfully land and undo many of the Br. gains in the colonies.

Fr. India and Fr. North America are currently held by the Br. and the British bargaining position is likely to be strongest at this point unless the French with perhaps some nominal support from the Swedes have occupied Hannover. In which case its hopeless.

French India at his point is probably too far away and the French are not as invested as they are in North America and the Caribbean. So you can probably argue that things will largely o the same their except for perhaps a few minor points...

The French probably don't want the Austrians on their northern border, with Prussia so reduced. so having fulfilled their obligations to the Hapsburgs for re-obtaining Silesia they will get the Austrian Netherlands to dispose of as they wish. If the British are not at the table they will have no say in what that is...

and while the Austrian Neth. were to go to the Duke of Parma with Parma going to the Hapsburgs, I suspect it would get modified to put pressure on the British, or at least their would be the threat of it....

the Duke of Parma only getting Luxembourg with Flanders, Hainault and S. Brabant directly to France or under another Branch of the French Bourbons perhaps. From a Hapsburg prospective, Parma is of far greater strategic value to them than holding on to the S. Netherlands.
 
Actually I doubt it...as Frederick will almost certainly have sought the most honourable death he could find on the battlefield to allow his minister to salvage what he can for his nephew. Prussia will be seeking an armistice almost certainly by the fall of '62 at the latest, and Frederick will probably have died in battle during the Spring or Summer campaigns. With Prussia seeking terms, the British have to make a major diplomatic decision. They either come to the table while they are still ahead or watch their bargaining chips on the continent disappear. Al their gains and strengths that remain are overseas.

So what bargaining chips do you think they would use? Would France give up the Austrian Netherlands if it meant regaining Canada and their Caribbean possessions?

Spain and Portugal are both new combatants In terms of armies, the French Spanish are probably the stronger against the British Portuguese...and if the war drags on for them...a siege of Gibralter at some point is inevitable. At sea the forces still favour the R/N and Portuguese but the disparity is not as great, and if Portugal were to be defeated at some point on land? The R/N will be hard pressed. It only takes one fleet with regular troops to successfully land and undo many of the Br. gains in the colonies.

Would the Royal Navy be that hard pressed? They had already destroyed much of the French navy, and by the end of the war they had an effective blockade on every French harbour, while still having ships free to raid colonial possessions. Even if France and Spain have extra men free after knocking out Prussia, Hannover and Portugal (and occupation will take a fair few) it doesn't do them much good if Britain has the naval supremacy to stop them getting anywhere. I can see the British capturing more Caribbean islands and possibly the River Plate too...
 
Top