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If Prussia had collapsed sooner in the Seven Year's War, such that the Austro-Russian carve up was a done deal by 1762, what effect would this have on Russia and Poland?

This would mean that Peter III would not have given Prussia back its pre-war borders: would this have prevented his unpopularity and the coup d'etat against him? If so, what knock-on effects would this have on the election of the next Polish king? If Austria had regained Silesia, would it want more control over Poland?
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