No miracle of Brandenburg: effect on Russia and Poland

I don't know about a total partition, that would probably only happen after a series of wars. At first all parties will want a compensation; but OTOH they might feel that Brandenburg can still be useful, furthermore other nations, even those not initially involved, might object to this.
 
Originally posted by Socrates

BTW, was there any chance of complete partition of Prussia leaving the Hohenzollerns throneless? Sweden takes western Pomerania, Saxony takes Brandenburg, Austria takes Silesia, Russia takes East Prussia and exchanges it with PLC for some its eastern territories and Courland.
Russia would like that solution because since PLC is Russian puppet, Petersburg gains some lands from PLC and still keeps some control over East Prussia. Wettins, being offered Brandenburg, won't give a damn about East Prussia. Prussian nobility will be unhappy, but won't be able to do much, because Russia can keep a strong garrison in Konigsberg and other towns, naturally just as a friendly gesture towards Warsaw, since Polish army is too weak.
The only power that might be unhappy with that are Habsburgs, because now it is Saxony that becomes main protestant power in northern Germany - and they won't like that.


The German Princes as a whole would be unhappy, seeing it as a dangerous precedent. Nothing like it had happened since the bad old days of the Thirty Years War.

Iirc Saxony was to get a part of Brandenburg, the former Bishoprics of Magdeburg and Halberstadt, but I don't recall any suggestion of her getting the whole of it.
 
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IIRC Pugachev was a Cossack who called the peasants to fight the noblemen (among other things). All aristocracy in the Russian Empire will back Catherine in fight against him.

I appreciate the point. But the American revolutionaries were colonists demanding independence from a European imperial power, yet France still backed them. It's quite possible that the Poles and Balts will take the chance of monarchical weakness to demand concessions/automony, despite them agreeing with the cause.

Then perhaps East Prussia is given to Wettins without making it part of the PLC. Technically, PLC did not fight in Seven Years War, while Saxony did. OTOH Russia would want some territorial gains from its Victory and taking lands from PLC without some kind of compensation might stir troubles among Poles.
The Poles will definitely be unhappy, but then, it's no worse than what happened to them during the partitions in OTL. The key difference here would be that it's their own King screwing them. Would he risk that? I don't know: it would be good if there were other examples of a ruler trading part of one country to get an extra realm somewhere else.

OTOH, the Poles will know the deal protects them more from becoming a protectorate of Russia. The more I think about this, I can definitely see a big fight between the Wettins and the Romanovs over the next Polish King. Which side would the Austrians back? Who would a compromise candidate be? I can't see a Habsburg being acceptable to anyone, and the Habsburgs would block the Bourbons. Maybe a Hannover?

BTW, was there any chance of complete partition of Prussia leaving the Hohenzollerns throneless? Sweden takes western Pomerania, Saxony takes Brandenburg, Austria takes Silesia, Russia takes East Prussia and exchanges it with PLC for some its eastern territories and Courland.
Russia would like that solution because since PLC is Russian puppet, Petersburg gains some lands from PLC and still keeps some control over East Prussia. Wettins, being offered Brandenburg, won't give a damn about East Prussia.
I can't see the Austrians accepting this for one moment. They're not going to have spent so much effort destroying a major power on their Northern border to create another one in Saxony. Both Austria and Russia have vetos over any element of the original peace deal (although Austria may have limited influence over later swaps.)

Iirc Saxony was to get a part of Brandenburd, the former Bishoprics of Magdeburg and Halberstadt, but I don't recall any suggestion of her getting the whole of it.

I can't see Saxony getting any more than the Bishoprics in the original peace deal, as they haven't done much in the war. However, they could gain more in later deals with Russia, but, as you say, the whole of Brandenburg-Prussia wouldn't be on the cards.
 
Guys

Another problem with a complete annexation is that Brandenburg, like Saxony, was an electorate so what happens to it's vote? Would be a lot of objection if Saxony tried to have two votes and imagine the in-fighting if it was decided to allocate it somewhere else.

Steve
 
Guys

Another problem with a complete annexation is that Brandenburg, like Saxony, was an electorate so what happens to it's vote? Would be a lot of objection if Saxony tried to have two votes and imagine the in-fighting if it was decided to allocate it somewhere else. Steve

If they followed precedent then Brandenburg's electoral vote would simply disappear. That would drop the total number of Electors from nine to eight, and butterflies permitting to seven in 1777 when the Palatine Elector became Elector of Bavaria as well.
 
I fully agree that Austria wouldn't accept Saxony to get Brandenburg as this would simply their Prussian rivals by Saxon rivals. Brandenburg will loose Ducal Prussia and Pommerania as well as its western holdings. I can imagine that Saxony gets some small territories along the border. But Hohenzollerns would still rule in what remains of their former lands.
 
Saxony would still be way weaker than Austria, and pre-war Prussia, let alone the fact that it was way less militarized.

More important: If it isn't butterflied away, Austria may exchange Belgium for core Bavaria, so the Wittelsbachs would reign Belgium, Jülich-Kleve-Berg and the Palatinate then. (And several decades after, Austria would have to fight to prevent France taking over this state - unless a wonder happens and it makes a good buffer state between France and Austria / the HRE.)
 
Saxony would still be way weaker than Austria, and pre-war Prussia, let alone the fact that it was way less militarized.

All true, but it still creates a sizable power on Austria's border, for no additional gain for Austria or Russia. Why wouldn't they just leave a rump Brandenburg?

More important: If it isn't butterflied away, Austria may exchange Belgium for core Bavaria, so the Wittelsbachs would reign Belgium, Jülich-Kleve-Berg and the Palatinate then. (And several decades after, Austria would have to fight to prevent France taking over this state - unless a wonder happens and it makes a good buffer state between France and Austria / the HRE.)

There's every chance Austria would already have traded Belgium for Parma to the Bourbons at the end of 7YW, as that was part of the deal for the alliance to regain Silesia in the first place.
 
Originally posted by Socrates
I appreciate the point. But the American revolutionaries were colonists demanding independence from a European imperial power, yet France still backed them. It's quite possible that the Poles and Balts will take the chance of monarchical weakness to demand concessions/automony, despite them agreeing with the cause.

Maybe yes, maybe not. Supporting revolution far over the ocean is one thing; supporting revolution on your doorstep is something completely different.

OTOH, the Poles will know the deal protects them more from becoming a protectorate of Russia. The more I think about this, I can definitely see a big fight between the Wettins and the Romanovs over the next Polish King. Which side would the Austrians back? Who would a compromise candidate be? I can't see a Habsburg being acceptable to anyone, and the Habsburgs would block the Bourbons. Maybe a Hannover?

PLC already was pretty much Russian protectorate since 1717-1733, although Russian influence in PLC varied in various times. I also doubt if Wettin would dare to mess with Russia on their own: after all Russia was the big winner of the last war and Russian army was quite impressive.
I believe Russia still would be able to put its candidate on Polish throne - they did it in IOTL without problems. If Saxony is out, only Austrians might oppose, and they didn't do it IOTL, so why should they do it ITTL?

I can see that complete annihilation of Prussia met with almost universal disapproval. Oh well, it was just a question.
 
Maybe yes, maybe not. Supporting revolution far over the ocean is one thing; supporting revolution on your doorstep is something completely different.

They probably wouldn't think it would lead to revolution though. They probably just would think of it as a useful distraction.

PLC already was pretty much Russian protectorate since 1717-1733, although Russian influence in PLC varied in various times. I also doubt if Wettin would dare to mess with Russia on their own: after all Russia was the big winner of the last war and Russian army was quite impressive. I believe Russia still would be able to put its candidate on Polish throne - they did it in IOTL without problems. If Saxony is out, only Austrians might oppose, and they didn't do it IOTL, so why should they do it ITTL?

You've persuaded me. So Stanislaw II August still comes to the throne then. What about when he later falls out with Catherine? Could he depend on Austrian, Saxon-Prussian, or Brandenburg support? He was stymied by a very conservative Prussia in our timeline, but Austria might be a bit more supportive here.
 
Originally posted by Socrates
You've persuaded me. So Stanislaw II August still comes to the throne then. What about when he later falls out with Catherine? Could he depend on Austrian, Saxon-Prussian, or Brandenburg support? He was stymied by a very conservative Prussia in our timeline, but Austria might be a bit more supportive here.

Stanisław played very difficult game, trying to modernize and reform PLC without antagonizing Catherine. He is still somewhat controversial character in Polish history - some see them as Russian puppet, some as reformer who had to play very bad cards. Truth, as always, is somewhere in between, IMHO. Besides, Stanisław was not the only or even main leader of Polish progressive faction. And falling out with Catherine, you mean the times of the Great Sejm and May Constitution?
Anyway, I think the main powers pushing for partition of Poland IOTL were Russia and Prussia - Austria just used the opportunity without being enthusiastic about it. Now, Prussia is out, Saxony is much weaker, and Saxon kings still might thnk about Polish crown (May Constitution offered it to them after Stanisław's death), so they will not do it. Austria and Russia have a common enemy (Ottomans) but OTOH reformed PLC might also be useful as an ally to Vienna, is mostly Catholic and keeps Russia from being too strong. Therefore it is possible that Saxony and Austria will grant some kind of support to PLC, although I doubt they would go to war for Warsaw. Some political support, military instructors (general Bruhl!), perhaps some money.
 
Originally posted by Socrates


IIRC Pugachev was a Cossack who called the peasants to fight the noblemen (among other things). All aristocracy in the Russian Empire will back Catherine in fight against him.



Then perhaps East Prussia is given to Wettins without making it part of the PLC. Technically, PLC did not fight in Seven Years War, while Saxony did. OTOH Russia would want some territorial gains from its Victory and taking lands from PLC without some kind of compensation might stir troubles among Poles. BTW, was there any chance of complete partition of Prussia leaving the Hohenzollerns throneless? Sweden takes western Pomerania, Saxony takes Brandenburg, Austria takes Silesia, Russia takes East Prussia and exchanges it with PLC for some its eastern territories and Courland.
Russia would like that solution because since PLC is Russian puppet, Petersburg gains some lands from PLC and still keeps some control over East Prussia. Wettins, being offered Brandenburg, won't give a damn about East Prussia. Prussian nobility will be unhappy, but won't be able to do much, because Russia can keep a strong garrison in Konigsberg and other towns, naturally just as a friendly gesture towards Warsaw, since Polish army is too weak.
The only power that might be unhappy with that are Habsburgs, because now it is Saxony that becomes main protestant power in northern Germany - and they won't like that.

The Tsarina had wanted to see Frederick II reduced to nothing more than a mere electorate....Which implies that he would keep a severely reduced throne, so throneless is not likely. Reduced to Brandenburg though is probably the worst that it will get, but they could still wangle holding on to Further Pomerania, though If that had gone to Sweden it would give them a land frontier with the Commonwealth. Kolberg is still a useful port. It also makes Brandenburg completely dependent on the Swedes for their external trade as all commerce probably passes through their controlled ports until Hannover gains Bremen - Verden. Its a recipe for disaster though unless the Swedes and Brandenburgers can come to a future rapprochement of some sort. That sees them largely acting in tandem for mutual benefit. Could happen I suppose. Bremen-Verden, Wismar and Pomerania allow them to continue to retain control of the exits of all the major rivers that would carry commerce to the Sea. There will probably be a great many tolls that the Swedes can continue to levy on such transits through their territories.

Enough of Sweden though, F-A-R alliance will probably hold in the immediate term, but with the Prussian menance gone..the Hapsburgs and French will eventually drift apart, but it won't be immediate., Depends on events, but for Britain The continental power capable of checking France is now really only an Austrian led German coalition so eventually there could be a rapprochement between the Brits and the Austrians. Depends on how heated any Franco Austrian rivalry were to become over interests in the HRE, the low countries or Italy. Could go several routes there, from complete break-down in the aftermath to a further cementing of the the Franco-Austrian hegemony on West and Central Europe.



Poland could be a flashpoint of course. As stated earlier its likely that Prussia, already hereditary will remain so as a Duchy of Poland in the Wettin family. Given that the Russians were disillusioned with further Wettin Rule in the Commonwealth, if the Wettins were in turn backed by the Austrians and perhaps the French this would disrupt the the Austro - Russian alliance. However if the status quo were to remain, and it could if Peter continues as Tsar, Catherine may still pursue a course of indirect control. In that case it depends on if a significant anti- Russian faction arises that descends into civil War, and Two whether the Wettins become the alternative candidate for said faction and accept to be said champion. or if they continue in the Status quo with their former Russian allies. Without allies the Wettins would not prevail in the long run, but the Commonwealth could very well become ungovernable.. The likely hood of partition becomes greater. This is not an outcome desirable to the Austrian Hapsburgs. From their point of view the best of all worlds is a continuing de jure independent Commonwealth under an electoral regime that leaves it weak militarily and open to manipulation is the preferred course. Partition that aggrandizes Saxony and Russia is not welcome to them. France has kept their colonies, so unless their are some colonial disputes that arise at the same time...Britain and France are likely to not become involved.

honestly, what happens to Peter III in the aftermath. probably determines your course in the immediate term. he's a Holstein-Gottorp so relations with Sweden might remain cordial at least for a while, but they will be decidedly anti Danish were Holstein is concerned. His Russian Domestic policy and his Polish policies will determine the Agenda in Eastern Europe at least. I don't think its a given that he will be overthrown this time around, events and how they play out will determine that. Given that the Russian succession laws are shall we say somewhat fluid in this time period. Russia will be interesting under Peter III if he should last. honestly i think it would definitely be interesting to see a Russia develop under Peter III and then succeed directly to Paul without a Catherine in between.

mind you, Catherine and Peter are both Germans, but from completely different dynasties that will shape their outlook.

btw..Did you say that Saxony obtained Magdeburg, basically Saxony-Anhalt.?
 
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