Originally posted by Socrates
IIRC Pugachev was a Cossack who called the peasants to fight the noblemen (among other things). All aristocracy in the Russian Empire will back Catherine in fight against him.
Then perhaps East Prussia is given to Wettins without making it part of the PLC. Technically, PLC did not fight in Seven Years War, while Saxony did. OTOH Russia would want some territorial gains from its Victory and taking lands from PLC without some kind of compensation might stir troubles among Poles. BTW, was there any chance of complete partition of Prussia leaving the Hohenzollerns throneless? Sweden takes western Pomerania, Saxony takes Brandenburg, Austria takes Silesia, Russia takes East Prussia and exchanges it with PLC for some its eastern territories and Courland.
Russia would like that solution because since PLC is Russian puppet, Petersburg gains some lands from PLC and still keeps some control over East Prussia. Wettins, being offered Brandenburg, won't give a damn about East Prussia. Prussian nobility will be unhappy, but won't be able to do much, because Russia can keep a strong garrison in Konigsberg and other towns, naturally just as a friendly gesture towards Warsaw, since Polish army is too weak.
The only power that might be unhappy with that are Habsburgs, because now it is Saxony that becomes main protestant power in northern Germany - and they won't like that.
The Tsarina had wanted to see Frederick II reduced to nothing more than a mere electorate....Which implies that he would keep a severely reduced throne, so throneless is not likely. Reduced to Brandenburg though is probably the worst that it will get, but they could still wangle holding on to Further Pomerania, though If that had gone to Sweden it would give them a land frontier with the Commonwealth. Kolberg is still a useful port. It also makes Brandenburg completely dependent on the Swedes for their external trade as all commerce probably passes through their controlled ports until Hannover gains Bremen - Verden. Its a recipe for disaster though unless the Swedes and Brandenburgers can come to a future rapprochement of some sort. That sees them largely acting in tandem for mutual benefit. Could happen I suppose. Bremen-Verden, Wismar and Pomerania allow them to continue to retain control of the exits of all the major rivers that would carry commerce to the Sea. There will probably be a great many tolls that the Swedes can continue to levy on such transits through their territories.
Enough of Sweden though, F-A-R alliance will probably hold in the immediate term, but with the Prussian menance gone..the Hapsburgs and French will eventually drift apart, but it won't be immediate., Depends on events, but for Britain The continental power capable of checking France is now really only an Austrian led German coalition so eventually there could be a rapprochement between the Brits and the Austrians. Depends on how heated any Franco Austrian rivalry were to become over interests in the HRE, the low countries or Italy. Could go several routes there, from complete break-down in the aftermath to a further cementing of the the Franco-Austrian hegemony on West and Central Europe.
Poland could be a flashpoint of course. As stated earlier its likely that Prussia, already hereditary will remain so as a Duchy of Poland in the Wettin family. Given that the Russians were disillusioned with further Wettin Rule in the Commonwealth, if the Wettins were in turn backed by the Austrians and perhaps the French this would disrupt the the Austro - Russian alliance. However if the status quo were to remain, and it could if Peter continues as Tsar, Catherine may still pursue a course of indirect control. In that case it depends on if a significant anti- Russian faction arises that descends into civil War, and Two whether the Wettins become the alternative candidate for said faction and accept to be said champion. or if they continue in the Status quo with their former Russian allies. Without allies the Wettins would not prevail in the long run, but the Commonwealth could very well become ungovernable.. The likely hood of partition becomes greater. This is not an outcome desirable to the Austrian Hapsburgs. From their point of view the best of all worlds is a continuing de jure independent Commonwealth under an electoral regime that leaves it weak militarily and open to manipulation is the preferred course. Partition that aggrandizes Saxony and Russia is not welcome to them. France has kept their colonies, so unless their are some colonial disputes that arise at the same time...Britain and France are likely to not become involved.
honestly, what happens to Peter III in the aftermath. probably determines your course in the immediate term. he's a Holstein-Gottorp so relations with Sweden might remain cordial at least for a while, but they will be decidedly anti Danish were Holstein is concerned. His Russian Domestic policy and his Polish policies will determine the Agenda in Eastern Europe at least. I don't think its a given that he will be overthrown this time around, events and how they play out will determine that. Given that the Russian succession laws are shall we say somewhat fluid in this time period. Russia will be interesting under Peter III if he should last. honestly i think it would definitely be interesting to see a Russia develop under Peter III and then succeed directly to Paul without a Catherine in between.
mind you, Catherine and Peter are both Germans, but from completely different dynasties that will shape their outlook.
btw..Did you say that Saxony obtained Magdeburg, basically Saxony-Anhalt.?