No Miracle at the Marne

What if the Germans won the battle of the Marne, and the Schlieffen Plan continues? Would this mean an automatic Entente loss, or what?
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If the BotM is the PoD, then no - or at least not right away.

At that point they've reached Paris, so they have two choices - either divide their armies, with one swinging west of Paris and the others east of it (which leaves a huge gap) or else shorten their line and have all armies pass east of Paris, which exposes them to a flank attack from the city. If they try to fight their way into Paris, street by street, they probably haven't the manpower to do it, and certainly can't both do that and at the same time defeat the French field armies.

So at this point things will bog down. But it still matters. A victory on the Marne could lead to the Germans doing a whole lot better in the Race to the Sea. You could get a Western Front running through the suburbs of Paris and hitting the Channel somewhere near Abbeville or even Dieppe. This allows German artillery to disrupt the French railway system (which radiated from Paris) while the BEF has fewer convenient ports to supply it. That could lead to an eventual German win in later 1915 or 1916, but not an immediate KO. Istr Wiking did a thread where this happened.
 
If the Germans do not retreat but continue the fight,
- 1. GE Army will beat 6. FR Army by attacking their left flank. 6. FR Army will retreat towards BEF and 5. FR Army.
- 2. GE Army will stand its ground and continue wrecking 9. FR Army.
- 3. GE Army will push into the gap already opened between 9. and 4. FR Armies and advance on Troyes, cutting the rail link between Paris and the FR armies in the east.
- 4. and 5. GE Armie will encircle Verdun and push into the back of the FR Armies holding the Verdun-Toul-Epinal-Belfort fortress line, forcing 4., 3., 2. and 1. FR Armies to retreat south towards the Langres Plateau, abandoning the fortress line.

Paris will not be a primary German objective. It isn't defended, but the Germans don't know this. The French forces and the BEF will be forced to retreat south. And the Germans will have their hand full consolidating their gains (putting Verdun under siege, perhaps also the fortresses at Toul and Epinal). I would guess that 6. and 5. FR Armies and BEF are re-directed to occupy Paris, before the Germans can gather enough strength to preempt this.

The situation of the Entente is much worse than OTL, but the field forces are still there. France has lost a large chunk of territory - and will lose more in the ensuing race to the sea, which may well happen along the Seine. All this may induce France to ask for terms in 1915, but they may also decide to fight on.
 
The Germans had reached and most likely passed their culmination point by the Marne, I think a win there would simply be entrenchment close to OTLs maximum advance but would allow a win in the Race to the Sea.

I think winning the Race to the Sea is a war winner for Germany, but in 1916 or so when the changed balance from OTL has time to work its magic.
 
In OTL the Germans got close enough, that the French government evacuated and only returned after the miracle. If the front stabilizes into trench warfare with the Germans not taking Paris , but in it's suburbs aka most of Paris within range of heavy artillery, not only will they be able to drastically reduce it's utility as a rail and industry hub the government will stay evacuated.
The German chances - of lack thereof - of actually taking a city the size of Paris nonwithstanding, the gouvernment of France being seen as having "run for the hills" will drastically influence the perception of how the war is going amongst 3rd parties.
Assuming by 1915 after the winter the Entente launches an offensive with whatever they got to try and push the Germans back and fail to do so, not only might we see opportunistic jumping on the CP bandwagon, but U.S. lenders might get cold feet. The same lenders that will already be needed much more than in OTL.
 
How would Italy's entry into the war be affected in this kind of situation. Would they be as willing to declare war on the Central Powers if German artillery was shelling Paris? If the Italians simply stay out, how does the Austro-Hungarian war against the Russians change? I think it's safe to say that an Italian entry on the CP side would seal France's fate.
 
How would Italy's entry into the war be affected in this kind of situation. Would they be as willing to declare war on the Central Powers if German artillery was shelling Paris? If the Italians simply stay out, how does the Austro-Hungarian war against the Russians change? I think it's safe to say that an Italian entry on the CP side would seal France's fate.

You could see Italy pull what it did in WWII. Wait until France is on the verge of falling and join in to get a seat at the negotiating table.
 
It all but guarantees German victory, on land at least. But not at once: IIRC, by the time the battle began, German supply lines and communications were already being stretched to the limit. They could probably surround Paris, but I don't see the German generals attempting to storm the city. Instead they'd starve it out, and consolidate their holdings/strengthen (?) their lines of supply and communications back to Germany. This would give the Entente time to regroup, and while the Germans have a better chance of winning the Race to the Sea.

However, regardless of who wins the Race to the Sea, France (and the ground war) are lost. Germany now controls all of France's industrial heartland, and knocked out the French transportation network, which was centered on Paris. There will be butterflies on the Eastern Front due to the large numbers of German troops needed to hold the massively-expanded Western Front, but I don't think too much will change.

The British will prop up the French though, probably enough to keep them (barely) going through 1915. The war in the west will probably end by 1916 however, as the dual task of supporting the French economy and war machine along with their own economy and war machine will drive the British economy to the limit. The breaking point will probably be American loans, which will probably be cut at some point in late 1916, as CP successes along the Eastern Front, the Balkans, and possibly the Middle East together with the hopelessness of the Western Front lead American bankers to realize there's no point shelling money in into a useless venture. Once American funding ends, it's over.
 
I think it would convince Italy to enter the war on the CP side with Germans shelling Paris. In late 1914 Paris and Verdun are besieged, and Entente moral drops to an all time low. Germany wins the race to the sea, and despite massive counterattacks by the entente to drive the Germans away from Paris, it fails. Along with Italy's entrance on the CP side, French people riot, and France surrenders. With France gone, and more countries join the CP, the British Empire agrees to an armistice. This treaty is versailles in reverse, and even worse (Germans IOTL had planned a brutal treaty on all of the Entente)
Treaty of Vienna in 1916
France:
France is in for a big one. A treaty was planned to make Versailles a slap in the face. France would lose her colonies, deal with occupation, pay massive war reparations, and be demilitarized.
-France loses all of her colonies, Italy gains Corsica, Nice and Savoy, French Tunisia and Eritrea. Rest go to Germany
-France is occupied until 1920, no fortifications to Paris until 1935, reparations of 500 billion marks
-Demilitarized France
-France loses some channel coast to Belgium (German puppet)
-Germany annexes Luxembourg and Wallonia, Belgium becomes a German protectorate

Britain:
Some say Britain would get a white peace, this is ridiculous. Germany had ambitions to gain a huge number of colonies. Should they triumph, there is nothing to stop them from stripping Britain of her colonies. Some may get occupied by the US to prevent them from falling into the Reich.
-British Malaysia, Guinea, and most African colonies are seceded to Germany, British Somalia is awarded to Italy, making Italian East Africa. Gibraltar is returned to Spain and Malta to Italy, making a Central Powers "Mare Nostrum". Kuwait, Cyprus, Egypt, and Arabian colonies are returned to the Ottomans. Ireland, Canada, India, and Australia are given independence.

After this triumph France and Great Britain have their own "Hitler", but without colonies they get nowhere.
 
Except that Britain would reject the terms against them as there is no way for CP to threaten British holdings.

A German Marine Korps with marine divisions, long range coastal artillery, uboats and destroyers occupying the French channel ports is such a threat to Britain itself that she will gladly buy off Germany with her holdings. The war was decided in northern France, not out in the British Empire.
 
I'm curious about what a German 'victory ' at the Marne would entail. Does it simply mean the allied attacks from Paris and into the gap don't happen, or that they are roundly defeatedor perhaps that one of the allied armies is encircled or what?

I know it sounds pedantic but there is a huge difference between these options in terms of outcomes.
 
A German Marine Korps with marine divisions, long range coastal artillery, uboats and destroyers occupying the French channel ports is such a threat to Britain itself that she will gladly buy off Germany with her holdings. The war was decided in northern France, not out in the British Empire.

None of which can credibly threaten an invasion as none of those can destroy mobile fleets. Germany would have sortie to deal severe damage to the Royal Navy to make an invasion not suicidal.
 
None of which can credibly threaten an invasion as none of those can destroy mobile fleets. Germany would have sortie to deal severe damage to the Royal Navy to make an invasion not suicidal.

Britain doesn't need to be invaded to surrender, a successful blockade will do the trick. What's more Britain won't be thinking about an invasion in the current war, but rather an invasion in the next war after Germany has had years to build up the capabilities.
 
The German threat from the Channel Ports might be considerable enough for Britain to accept some losses (Mittelafrika, most likely). Dismantling the whole Empire? Not until Germans are goosestepping on Piccadilly Circus.

I am also skeptical that the Germans can enforce the surrender of all French colonies, given how they were defeated in Africa and I don't see the Marne making a difference in the Middle East either. Taking all of British Africa, PLUS Malaysia and Singapore? Even if they had the chance to do that, it would sooner be taken by the Japanese. I think you forgot about them altogether.
 
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