No Meiji Restoration?

The Industrialization was pretty much guaranteed at that point. The main differences will be in politics and culture with more minor effects on industrialization. One thing thats been brought up before is traditional clothes being retained.
 
The issue was that the Tokugawa Shogunate was heavily pressured both from internal and external groups, and crumbled to the pressure

Internal pressure was from Daimyos dissatisfied with the rule, mainly because they were seen as outsiders (tozama) since they were late to the party supporting the Tokugawa'ian push for power back in late 1590's, and was 'punished' for that with distrust (lack of appointment in high ranking government seats) and forced to hand off strategically important places such as forts near major roads and important cities to faithful Tokugawa leaning daimyos, and they semi-regularly ended up in a pseudo cold war with the regime.

the External pressure came from specially US (in the guise of Commodore Matthew C. Perry), and to a lesser degree the British and Dutch, to open trade routes, which the southwestern tozama Daimyos had usually been more willing to do, but disallowed by the central state. This fractured the government in factions either for or against war, and largely unable to handle such a internal disargeement, juggling with the national security.

to stop Meiji Restoration you'd probably have to handle, at least, these two things ...
1. Less disenfranchisement of the Tozama Daimyo's rolling them into the system instead of badmouthing them for centuries.
2. Less aggressive isolationist politics against foreign traders
 
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