No Mediterranean theatre => no Pacific theatre?

In the scenario described in the OP, Japan...

  • ... goes to war with the Western Allies (France, UK, Netherlands) only

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    21
Let's say the Nazi invasion of France goes less well, Mussolini thinks better of entering the war and the French fleet goes to North Africa or joins the RN. Does Japan still attack Allied possessions in the Pacific? And what about the United States?
 

Deleted member 9338

It all depends on how "less well". If France is defeated, but it takes longer and Britain and France maintaining the alliance I can see the French Army escaping to Algeria and the Battle of Britain happening over the Med. The French Navy is maintained in North Africa away from Germany.

Italy may be forced to enter the war by Germany so they can get at the French forces.

The US may than be bought into the conflict sooner to aid the French with need supplies. A stronger US may deter the Japanese or at least allow the US to have a superior diplomatic position to avert a war in the Pacific.
 
The Europeans didnt have much input into why Japan went to war and why the US opposed them. European events will have little bearing on war in the Pacific.
 
The Japanese had enough military suicide on their plate already by attacking the US, the French fleet isn't going to scare them off.
 
The important factor isn't the French navy - it's French Indochina. Japan occupied northern Vietnam from the Vichy government in September 1940, and basically got a free hand in Indochina in June 1941, both of which depend on a Vichy government being recognized as having authority over Indochina. The US responded to the first event with a scrap-metal embargo against Japan, and to the second with an oil embargo and a freeze on Japanese financial assets in the US; the second embargo was especially important in the run-up to war, as it forced Japan into a situation where it had to either try to back down in China (and face the wrath of the Kwantung Army and its sympathizers, who often used assassination as a political maneuver) or to somehow seize the resources it needed to continue to prosecute the war in China (leading to the OTL war in the Pacific, or at least a facsimile thereof).

Avoid the occupations of Indochina... and things get messy. The US may end up embargoing the Japanese anyway. Even if they don't, there will be a lot of pressure coming from Japanese commanders in China to get cut and keep cut the railway lines running from Hanoi to Kunming and into Guangxi. Still, it's possible (not likely, but possible) that Japan muddles on through the '40s fighting only in China.
 
Thinking about this I'm inclined to say no war, Japan's decision to go to war was driven by a desperate need for oil and other resources even so the decision was the subject of heated discussions in the Government and even many of those who favoured war expected Japan to lose in the medium term. The Malaya operation was arguably the most important as it was in SE Asia that the resources Japan needed where. IOTL Yamashita's army was on it's last legs when the British surrendered, Japan was lucky to encounter a poorly trained and equipped army led by a complete imbecile. No Med /N Africa theatre means most of OTL's Eighth Army and Desert Air Force could be sent to Malaya and Borneo, as well as the RN's first team, given how stretched the Japanese were in OTL it's very difficult to see how they could have pulled off the same operation against a much stronger foe. So the Japanese Government could well have opted not to go to war.

Then again the Japanese at this time were so obsessed with military power that they may have done it anyway in which case the operation would need to be revised to take account of the stronger opposition.
 
Just a thought, how well would the RN's first-rate battle line have done against the IJN's carriers? Sunk at sea, able to close in to gun range, or somewhere in between?
 
Just a thought, how well would the RN's first-rate battle line have done against the IJN's carriers? Sunk at sea, able to close in to gun range, or somewhere in between?

jaybird

Apart from isolated units, such as PoW OTL, the new ships would almost certainly be kept in Europe until the war was over there. The main threat would be to the homeland and that would take top priority. Also, once the power of the Japanese carrier force was realised it would probably be recognised by the RN that the best bet is to keep a force in being seeking to safeguard Malaya and western Indonesia, which are unlikely to fall in TTL.

Steve
 
Are we assuming that Free France is established based on the French colonial empire backed by the French fleet and any army units, industry, gold...that can be moved to North Africa or are we assuming that France itself manages to hold out?

Even the former, if Italy stays out of the war, means a potentially much stronger Allied position in SE Asia.
 
Guys

I would say war still occurs and all western powers get attacked as I think the main factors prompting the war are still in place. The US and Britain [less distracted due to the better position in Europe] are going to oppose the Japanese attacks on China. Its probable that sooner or later the US at least will impose economic sanctions and Britain, needing US support will likely follow suit. Alternatively, even if this doesn't occur sooner or later, probably sooner, Japan is going to run out of funds so they won't be able to buy the supplies they need anyway.

Its possible that facing the more difficult problem of seizing the southern resources without initially holding FIC and possibly with a stronger allied position in the region, Japan may be willing to give up and ultimately concede the China war. However this would be seen as a huge loss of face by the military leaders so I suspect its unlikely.

Steve
 
Are we assuming that Free France is established based on the French colonial empire backed by the French fleet and any army units, industry, gold...that can be moved to North Africa or are we assuming that France itself manages to hold out?

Even the former, if Italy stays out of the war, means a potentially much stronger Allied position in SE Asia.

In my opinion the French mainland holding out against the Germans is ASB without a POD in the '30.
I would say just the French government relocating to Algiers or even France falling to a Vichy government but admiral Darlan defecting to fight on with the British.
The main point is that the UK completely dominates the Mediterranean. Of course they would still need some ships to beware of Italy (after all if Mussolini betrayed the Germans he could betray them too!) but it would still be a much more formidable enemy for the Japanese to fight.
 
A Meds theatre wouldn't have anything to do with Japans ambitions to control the pacific nor their need for supplies for their war with China. the US would still pose an embargo on Japan, so Japan would historically attack.
 
Top