No Mayan collapse

So back in the 8th century or so a lot of Mayan cities, mostly in the southern parts of their lands, were abandoned for reasons not entirely known to historians. This seemed to have been a major setback for their civilization causing loss of trade routes, a technological and cultural decline as well as the loss of what was at the time a fairly powerful "empire" of sorts.

Now, assuming this collapse didn't happen what sort of New World could we expect to see by the time the Spanish arrive? I would expect that there would be no Aztec triple alliance, and we might see a more unified resistance to colonization. I am not sure if this means the Mayans could survive being invaded by Europeans down the line, but it might mean the Spanish have to chose a slightly more peaceful form of colonization in Mexico than in OTL. This is of course pure speculation, and even if the Mayans can resist invasion they are still going to go through periods of massive disease outbreaks.

But what do you guys think? Can we make a scenario in which the Mayans can survive for at least a while as the regional power in Central America even after European arrival?
 
Maybe if they aquired horses and oxen from the Spanish, and learned to use them? What really set all the Mesoamerican cultures back was their lack of riding and draft animals. They did have the wheel, as I understand, but without draft animals, it's useless.
More important than the actual utility of cavalry was the psychological effect mounted troops had on the indigenes, who had never seen horses.
 
So back in the 8th century or so a lot of Mayan cities, mostly in the southern parts of their lands, were abandoned for reasons not entirely known to historians. This seemed to have been a major setback for their civilization causing loss of trade routes, a technological and cultural decline as well as the loss of what was at the time a fairly powerful "empire" of sorts.

Now, assuming this collapse didn't happen what sort of New World could we expect to see by the time the Spanish arrive? I would expect that there would be no Aztec triple alliance, and we might see a more unified resistance to colonization. I am not sure if this means the Mayans could survive being invaded by Europeans down the line, but it might mean the Spanish have to chose a slightly more peaceful form of colonization in Mexico than in OTL. This is of course pure speculation, and even if the Mayans can resist invasion they are still going to go through periods of massive disease outbreaks.

But what do you guys think? Can we make a scenario in which the Mayans can survive for at least a while as the regional power in Central America even after European arrival?
Aha! I was planning on starting a detailed TL based on this premise, beginning from the Collapse. Anyways, surviving the initial waves of conquest would be easy, considering how well they did at first OTL. Now, unlike the popular misconception, the Mayans (just as the Aztecs did) lost because they were too divided. It is a popular claim that the Aztecs fell as quickly as they did because they were very centralized, which is only a small reason, the main reason was that they had too many enemies. Now, in the case of the Mayans, there were 16 independent states upon Contact and as in the Classic Era they followed a system of alliances, but more loosely. When the Spanish came, the area was racked with warfare between factions supporting either the Cocom or Tutul Xiu families, based on a conflict with roots back to Chichen Itza.

No Classic Collapse means they will be much richer, have more resources, and gives time for one major power to have everyone else, or at least enough people, under a tight hegemony. This means no Mayan king in his right mind will ally with the vastly outnumbered Spanish, and that the Spanish (even assuming they somehow got a large army, which would be impossible under the circumstances) could not win by capturing the High King or taking his city. The Mayans would suffer badly from diseases, but they could survive, which is important. Eventually they'd have to strike a deal with a European power, protection and autonomy in return for exclusive trade rights or something like that. That is the basis of the TL I am planning, but more complicated, so complicated by new research I'm having problems actually.
 
Maybe if they aquired horses and oxen from the Spanish, and learned to use them? What really set all the Mesoamerican cultures back was their lack of riding and draft animals. They did have the wheel, as I understand, but without draft animals, it's useless.
More important than the actual utility of cavalry was the psychological effect mounted troops had on the indigenes, who had never seen horses.

Well, if Cortez and his conquistadors fail their attempts at invasion eventually horses are going to end up in Mayan hands. And there is always the possibility that the Spanish seeing the riches of the Mayans (they were very wealthy and good merchants before the collapse, apparently) they are going to want to trade with them. Horses, as well as weaponry and armour, are probably going to be one of the first things the Mayan traders ask for once they've realized what those things can do.
 
I might add that they were very good merchants after collapse too. Apparently even the leaders of cities and states went on trade missions. It's how one of the Cocoms survived the destruction of Mayapan.

Oh, just something I've been wondering, am I the only one here who has extensive knowledge of Mayans? As in, knows what the hell Cocom and Mayapan refer to?
 

Keenir

Banned
So back in the 8th century or so a lot of Mayan cities, mostly in the southern parts of their lands, were abandoned for reasons not entirely known to historians.

actually, several large reasons are known - the biggie being archetecture: in order to make temples, pyramids, and other structures, the Mayans needed mortar which included charcoal and ashes -- at the height of the Mayan reign, you could stand on the taller pyramids, and you wouldn't see a single tree between you and the horizon.

make it too far to get wood, and the Mayans will have a crisis (like OTL).

But what do you guys think? Can we make a scenario in which the Mayans can survive for at least a while as the regional power in Central America even after European arrival?

I suppose its possible that a later (and larger) collapse of Mayan society might innoculate Mayan culture for the ravages of the Spaniards, enabling the Mayans to survive as a cohesive unit(s) after European contact.
 
Aha! I was planning on starting a detailed TL based on this premise, beginning from the Collapse.

Great minds think alike. :D

Anyways, surviving the initial waves of conquest would be easy, considering how well they did at first OTL. Now, unlike the popular misconception, the Mayans (just as the Aztecs did) lost because they were too divided. It is a popular claim that the Aztecs fell as quickly as they did because they were very centralized, which is only a small reason, the main reason was that they had too many enemies. Now, in the case of the Mayans, there were 16 independent states upon Contact and as in the Classic Era they followed a system of alliances, but more loosely. When the Spanish came, the area was racked with warfare between factions supporting either the Cocom or Tutul Xiu families, based on a conflict with roots back to Chichen Itza.

A strong surviving Mayan civilization would have had to exist for several hundred years longer than OTL. In that time I would expect to see a tendency towards a more centralized situation. This would of course mean a more unified front against the Spanish.

No Classic Collapse means they will be much richer, have more resources, and gives time for one major power to have everyone else, or at least enough people, under a tight hegemony. This means no Mayan king in his right mind will ally with the vastly outnumbered Spanish, and that the Spanish (even assuming they somehow got a large army, which would be impossible under the circumstances) could not win by capturing the High King or taking his city. The Mayans would suffer badly from diseases, but they could survive, which is important. Eventually they'd have to strike a deal with a European power, protection and autonomy in return for exclusive trade rights or something like that. That is the basis of the TL I am planning, but more complicated, so complicated by new research I'm having problems actually.

Yeah, unless the Mayans manage to modernize quickly (which is not that far fetched really. They would eventually get horses and with European trade find out about techniques that would allow them to make steel and gunpowder. All the resources were already there.) I imagine them ending up as a Spanish vassal state of sorts. Especially once other European powers arrive in the area.
 
I had two important ideas as to how to stop the Collapse from actually happening:

1. Introduce Terra Preta. In other words, Slash-and-char. This has been proven to have been a very efficient farming technique. This is necessary to feed the burgeoning population, which at times reached the density of Los Angeles county in places, and do so without losing the forest completely.

2. Some of the changes marking the Postclassic will have to happen. One biggie, governments become less centralized, the Popol Naah (House of the mat, meaning the Ruling Council) gains as much authority as the king if not more, and therefore there is less emphasis on massive building projects and giant pyramids are no longer as important, shrines at home becoming the main places of worship. Although the Postclassic is called decadent the rulers had much more sense, mainly because they witnessed the consequences of the more grandiose Classic. Maybe the PoD would be realizing the consequences after El Mirador falls?
 
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