No MARKET GARDEN

[Croesus]

Continuing from the Americans at Arnhem thread...

Late afternoon on 15 Sep, Kriegsmarine divers arrive at the HQ of the SS Kampfgruppe responsible for penning the British bridgehead over the Albert Canal.

That night, together with a section of hastily trained Luftwaffe signalmen, the divers manhandle a 500kg naval mine into the Albert Canal, upstream from the Allied Bridgehead. In the darkness and murky water, two of the divers become disoriented, are lost and captured. The remaining two lose control of the mine, which rolls along the bottom of the canal. One of the divers mistakenly surfaces and is killed by British sentries, on a higher alert to cover the build up of the Irish Guards for the GARDEN push up the MARKET corridor.

Quickly sensing disaster, local British officers, faced with two captured Kriegsmarine divers and a diver shot in the water, phone the alarm to the bridge which goes to full alert. Traffic over the bridge is halted and confusion reigns at the bridgehead itself as nervous sentries start firing into the water. While the situation is being calmed the remaining diver is attempting to work out his proximity to the bridge while he attempts to gain control over the mine.

At this point the SS guarding the bridghead decide to send in a fighting patrol and the firing that erupts from this contact re-ignites the tension on the far bank and more fire is put into the water in... at this point the remaining diver is spotted as he swims for safety (mistakenly for the Allied positions), mortars start to engage the SS fighting patrol and the first bracket falls short, detonating the mine.

When the air clears, the Irish Guards find in horror that the bridge is completely missing one of its forward sections and a suspension pylon is hanging loose, the bridge supports beneath blown out. After a short time of shocked silence, the SS begin to sense what has happened and attack the bridgehead. Although much mortar and artillery fire are poured in on the position, the forward units are lost, though some men manage to swim the canal to safety.

As for the bridge, the Irish Guards are stuck on the other side of it and stiffening German resistance in the area, directed in from the General Staff, result in huge difficulties for the engineers to assemble Bailey bridges in order to reclaim the bridgehead and fix the badly damaged main bridge.

It soon becomes apparent from aerial reconnaisance that the Germans have significantly reinforced the immediate and surrounding area and Horrocks raises the first doubts that the GARDEN operation is untenable. Montgomery keeps pushing but the seeds of doubt already existing about the rashness of the MARKET operation results in its cancellation by Eisenhower.

What happens now?

Croesus

 

[DMA]

Well Monty's plans are stuffed that's for sure. Patton, meanwhile, is jumping for joy & immediately contacts Ike with his plans for a push into central/southern Germany.

Ike, with no chance of a northern offensive, goes with Patton. Patton wastes no time & pushes forward. The Germans are in trouble from the start as their forces facing Patton are weak due to their Lorraine Offensive only a few days before.

The airborne divs may still get a job though, but don't expect anything like the original Market operation.

If things go Patton's way, he could very well be in Berlin by the beginning of 1945 if not earlier. It makes for an interesting post-WW2 period. The Cold War probably starts much earier.

 

[Redbeard]

If things go Patton's way, he could very well be in Berlin by the beginning of 1945 if not earlier. It makes for an interesting post-WW2 period. The Cold War probably starts much earier.

But he could also end up too far forward and taking a fatal jab in the flank. In autumn of 1944 nobody believed Germany any longer was capable of gathering forces for anything offensive, but just some of the forces historically used for the battle of the bulge wuld be enough for a short decisive counter strike towards a overstretched Patton eager to be first in Berlin - and firmly believeing that the Germans are only capable of uncoherrent defence. By late 1944 the German railway system still was frightfully effective and could in short time (at night) move entire armies without the allies finding out.

In such a TL we would at AH boards discuss what Market Garden would have meant if launched and the conclusion would be that it had the same (small) chances of succeeding but less fatal if failing.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[DMA]

But he could also end up too far forward and taking a fatal jab in the flank. In autumn of 1944 nobody believed Germany any longer was capable of gathering forces for anything offensive, but just some of the forces historically used for the battle of the bulge wuld be enough for a short decisive counter strike towards a overstretched Patton eager to be first in Berlin - and firmly believeing that the Germans are only capable of uncoherrent defence. By late 1944 the German railway system still was frightfully effective and could in short time (at night) move entire armies without the allies finding out.

Now much of this is true, but you're working on the assumption that Patton won't be supported by the two other US armies in theatre (1st & 9th) whilst Patton will be stopped somewhere sticking out like a sore thumb. So yes, you can only try to counter-attack someone like Patton, in the manner you're suggesting, if he decides to stop akin to Monty in the aftermath of Market Garden. Yet Patton wont stop, nor be that careless.

However, there's also the problem of where do the Germans attack. The Ardennes was a rather obvious place to attack. Furthermore, making Antwerp their objective would significantly change the strategic situation on the Western Front. It seemed very good on paper. Of course, at this stange in the war, it was also futile, but that never worried Hitler. So I can't see how the Germans would do any better against Patton. Afterall, in Lorraine, the German's attack to trap Patton ended in a disaster for the Germans. I see something similar for any attack on Patton in this AH.

Naturally, though, Patton wouldn't just go straight for Berlin. You'd see the centre & south-west of Germany cleared first, then followed by a sweep up to Berlin from the south. The entire German Western Front is thus completely threatened with encirclement, so I dare say the Germans will be more concerned about withdrawal, rather than counter-attacking Patton. Once Patton has taken Berlin, the Germans might try something involving the forces involved in the OTL Ardennes, but in reality it's all over by that stage for Germany. The Allies end up with a flea bite, whilst Germany still loses the war.

In such a TL we would at AH boards discuss what Market Garden would have meant if launched and the conclusion would be that it had the same (small) chances of succeeding but less fatal if failing.

Well the problem with Market Garden is that it invited the Battle of the Bulge for a couple of reasons, but in this instance (in comparing the two examples), there was a weak flank &, far more importantly, Market Garden failed forcing the British to, more or less, stop their advance due to that failure.

 

[Croesus]

Agreed that the torch passes to Patton.

As often happens, Patton appears as the white knight for alternative history at this point. The same principle that makes me hesitate to slate Montgomery leads me to balk at seeing Patton as a colossus. Dying in his military prime does tend to polish your image somewhat. Still, he had momentum and was fighting the right kind of war in the right place.

I've given no thought to what might occur as a result. The Ardennes would probably go ahead anyway as the strategic imperative that led to it OTL (hitting Antwerp and severing its supply linkage) still exists as Antwerp falls before this TL occurs.

There is also the issue of lengthening supply lines caused by, what seems to be the general impression, Patton punching into Germany. There are many attendent problems to that, esp. in light of Rundstedt's reorganizations that led to the strong OTL reaction to the MARKET landings.

German operational doctrine had many standard works dealing with shearing the head of narrow front advances and things will get tougher the closer to Germany Patton gets. We have only to look at the major damage was done to the Soviets leading up to and including the Battle of Berlin to see how Patton might run into all sorts of strife at several points of an advance.

There is also a case to be made for the circumstances that led to the exhaustion that halted the advance immediately prior to MARKET GARDEN (that the Germans at the time couldn't understand as their structure were completly broken up) recurring at several other points in the advance up the European plain.

While Pattons offensive potential, and the other Allied armies, was most formidable, they find themselves up against a well motivated, even desperate, enemy who has been perfecting retrograde actions for the last two to three years and who is falling back onto their own shortening supply lines. The Germans had already demonstrated the capacity of their operational brand of warfare to upset the managerial brand of the Americans.

It shouldn't be assumed that Patton takes the war to a conclusion where there is no MARKET GARDEN.

An interesting sub-text to this TL is what happens to the Airborne divisions. Finding a use for them contributed to the MARKET GARDEN problem and as was seen in the troubled VARSITY, just because there are lots of paras and the Germans are dead on the ropes doesn't mean that a lot of casualties won't be taken in a short time. Yet they have to be used; perhaps there is a reversion to the use the Fifth Army made of them in Italy, as line infantry?

Croesus

 

[DMA]

Again interesting thoughts here Croesus. I don't overly disagree, because sure, things may have been more difficult for Patton, but I've got a couple of observations.

The first is the Ardennes business. Now if there's no Market Garden, the British aren't stretched awkwardly northward through Belgium & Holland. Instead they're concentrated around Brussels. If the Germans do then launch Wacht am Rhein , well they'll be attacking right into 2nd UK Army. In doing so, the Germans will get slaughtered.

Now the next thing is, if they do launch Wacht am Rhein, who's going be around to stop Patton's offensive in the south-west & centre of Germany? The Germans, by this stage, just didn't have the troops to fight effectively on all fronts. Just as importantly, the Germans had already exhausted themselves opposite Patton in Lorraine. The thing that saved the Germans was the fact that Patton had to stop so that Monty could launch Market Garden. But if there's no Market Garden, well the resources earmarked for Monty can be quickly transported to 3rd US Army.

Now fair enough, Berlin may have been a hard nut to crack for Patton, but the fact that Patton is on the outskirts means that the rest of the Western Front is in taters for the Germans. The British will be able to move freely into Holland & then northern Germany. Likewise, 7th US Army & 1st French Army can take over southern Germany, thus cutting off Italy. And 1st US & 9th US Armies can, more or less, surround Berlin if need be. So Berlin may indeed hold out, yet the Western Allies take over the rest of Germany.

As for the airbourne divisions - well if Patton does get stuck somewhere prior to advancing on Berlin, I'd imagine they'd be used to dislodge whatever German defence is holding up Patton.

Italy, meanwhile, is a side show. I'd wouldn't expect any change taking place in this AH other than a repeat of the OTL.

PS: IMHO Patton was a nutcase.

 

[Croesus]

Yes, its an interesting situation. I don't think I'll be comfortable making a stab at an ATL until I've had a look at the what the Allied planners at the time would see.

It goes without saying that Germany falls, the question is when and to whom? Given German preference for a western conqueror over an eastern, it may well be that, following a couple of minor disasters events play right into Eisenhowers hands and Third Army charges all the way.

As for the Ardennes, I've always felt that the climate in OKW at this time was sufficiently degraded to allow a Bulge to be fought regardless of the actual situation. NORDWIND was an example of a foolish last ditch German attack and WACHT AM REIN may well go ahead anyway.

Looks like I'll be reshuffling my reading list again...

I've always liked Pattons style. There's something alluring about crazy generals meeting the craziness of war head on. I've always wondered what might have happened had Patton become involved in Korea.

Croesus

 

[DMA]

I guess Germany falls to the Western allies as the Russians are still in Poland etc in early 1945. So the German army, for all intents & purposes, has been swept from Germany as strange as that sounds.

The thing with Wacht am Rhein is that it's launched in December. Now if Patton starts his offensive in late September, instead of Market Garden, well the Western Front would have already been pushed back from the Ardennes. So it makes it impossible for Wacht am Rhein .

The other thing, of course, is something similar is launched against Patton. But the Germans tried that in Lorraine & it was a total failure. IMHO the Germans will be hard pressed to just stop Patton, when he's on the move with full logisitical support, let alone launch a counter-attack.

Well Patton in Korea may not have come up with Inchon, but I'd doubt he would have stuffed up later on near the Chinese border.