If the battle of Manzikert is avoided (Arp Aslan never wanted battle) and a peace settlement is acheived between the Romans and the Turks, would the 1st Crusade happen? How long before it would, if it happens at all?
Aslan was mostly focused on securing Fatimid Egypt. If his initial campaign goes wrong in Anatolia, its much more likely he'd focus the Turkish raids onto the Levant and Egypt. The Romans may have been a paper tiger at the time, but no one knew it. You have a successful Manzikert you keep and reinforce that outward appearance of superiority, and that's going to convince people to attack them all the more harder.The Seljuks were out for Roman blood. Alp Arslan will not be deterred so easily---Anatolia was rich, and he knew that, and he (and his clan) wanted it. The Romans at this time were ruled by the totally incompetent Doukids, and even if Romanos manages to beat the Seljuks (necessitates a number of things to magically go in his favor that didn't IOTL; such as losing half his army before the actual battle, or his biggest political enemy initiating a premature retreat, taking his part of the army with him) at Manzikert, there will likely still be another 'Manzikert', if you follow. The ERE was a shaky house of cards in the 1060s/70s, and all that was needed was one staggering defeat to knock it down.
Without a defeat at Manzikert, no capture of Romanos, no generalized civil war, and far less possibilities for Turks to advance in Anatolia, less opportunities for Normans to take advantage, that wouldn't lead to byzantine ambassadors at Piacenza calling for support.If that is the case then perhaps Manzikert isn't a direct cause of the Turkish takeover of Anatolia and it still occurs without victory at Manzikert, which means there will still be a good chance of a Crusade.
Aslan was mostly focused on securing Fatimid Egypt. If his initial campaign goes wrong in Anatolia, its much more likely he'd focus the Turkish raids onto the Levant and Egypt. The Romans may have been a paper tiger at the time, but no one knew it. You have a successful Manzikert you keep and reinforce that outward appearance of superiority, and that's going to convince people to attack them all the more harder.
Not to dismiss the question, but wouldn't no East-West Schism have a bigger impact?
To get rid of annoying tribesman before they started messing things up in Persia. However, there was never a time that, to my knowledge, Aslan was among them. He was always more focused on taking Egypt.But it -had- gone wrong, several times in fact, prior to Manzikert. If he didn't care that much, why keep coming back?