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Let's say that, due to subtle changes in the behaviour of the Mongols after 1368, the Manchus never invade China, and Li Zicheng's Shun Dynasty replaces the Ming. What effects might this bring in the subsequent eras?

I would think that the Shun, because of the lack of Mongolian connections and support, wouldn't have been able to influence the game of the post-Yuan steppes like the Qing did, and probably wouldn't have managed to conquer the Dzungars.

beyond that, I'm unclear. What might the potential effects of this be in future?
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