No Louisiana Purchase?

So, let's say Napoleon makes peace with his brothers and never sells Louisiana - something that Joseph in particular hadn't liked, as he'd been the one negotiating to get it back.

What next?
 
UNless Napoleon can get Haiti back - by force or negociation - or gets peace with Uk to keep longer, the question is simply who will invade it first : US or Uk.

OTOH, if the later, it may be given back to France after Napoleon's defeat ( just to keep some balance of power in North America ).

Could be interesting.....

Thought it likely means a franco-US war in the 1830s, I would say. WHich likely would mean Huge butterflies in both France and USA, whoever is the victor.
 
It could even be divided between US & UK thus leading to UK dominance over all of Oregon.
More likely there'll be war over the territory once Napoleon is defeated as per OTL - I believe it unlikely that any butterflies will reach Europe over the "nonsale" since France didn't receive the money till after Napoleon's defeat.
 
I'd imagine the US gets involved in the Napoleonics to try and grab it (its a better target than Canada). Britain would likely grab the coast though.
But whatever.
The American effects are irrelevant. Far more important is what happens to Napoleon with such a big slice of his warchest missing.

It could even be divided between US & UK thus leading to UK dominance over all of Oregon.
More likely there'll be war over the territory once Napoleon is defeated as per OTL - I believe it unlikely that any butterflies will reach Europe over the "nonsale" since France didn't receive the money till after Napoleon's defeat.
Really? I've not heard that.
I remember they didn't get the full sum until long after the war (as was always the plan, America just didn't have the money available) but they did get quite a large down payment.
 
US settlers would have just moved into the upper reaches of Louisiana and the French would be unable to do anything about it. Exactly what would be done with the Indians that eventually settled (or were forced to) west of the Mississippi probably mirrors OTL. US acquisition of the port of New Orleans is crucial, so one can expect that while France may lose northern Louisiana, by default to encrouchment, it may be able to extract the full historic price for southern Louisiana and New Orleans.
 
US settlers would have just moved into the upper reaches of Louisiana and the French would be unable to do anything about it. Exactly what would be done with the Indians that eventually settled (or were forced to) west of the Mississippi probably mirrors OTL. US acquisition of the port of New Orleans is crucial, so one can expect that while France may lose northern Louisiana, by default to encrouchment, it may be able to extract the full historic price for southern Louisiana and New Orleans.

You can't just Texas anywhere.
With Texas it was a area on the periphery of a unstable, weak nation with no influence. If Americans move to area owned by a country of substance then its a case of 'so what?', its like all those Brits, Germans, etc... who moved to the US.
 
You can't just Texas anywhere.
With Texas it was a area on the periphery of a unstable, weak nation with no influence. If Americans move to area owned by a country of substance then its a case of 'so what?', its like all those Brits, Germans, etc... who moved to the US.

Actually you can. The settlement of Louisiana would be much more like the US settlement of the Oregon Territory and Mexican California. And you do have an area, Louisiana, that is on the periphery of an unstable nation - France.
 
In 1803 Spain which controlled the Port of New Orleans, Had some problems with River Men and their keel boats [Mike Finn, et al].
In response, Spain Closed the Port Of New Orleans to American Traffic.

Due to this Jefferson prepared to send a Delagation to Spain, However just before sailing they recived word of France taking back the Territory.

OTL They arrived in Paris and Bought Louisana.

However the US had a second string to it's bow

In Mississippi, plans were under way to have the State Militia take the the Port, if the Delagation couldn't get the Port reopened.

In fact the word of the Purchase arrived just before the Invasion was launched.

IIRC there were only about 6~700 Spanish Soldiers in the Territory, with Napoleon planning to send another 1200 as reinforcements.

If Napoleaon hadn't sold, these French Soldiers would have arrived to find the Port in the hands of the US.

Leading to the ATL Franco/American War of 1803.
 
Funny, I was wondering about what would happen if the purchase never happened, a few months ago, and if another country popped up there instead.
 
Actually you can. The settlement of Louisiana would be much more like the US settlement of the Oregon Territory and Mexican California. And you do have an area, Louisiana, that is on the periphery of an unstable nation - France.

Oregon?
That was not 'Texased'. It was given to America just to keep them happy as the government didn't care about it.
 
You can't just Texas anywhere.
With Texas it was a area on the periphery of a unstable, weak nation with no influence. If Americans move to area owned by a country of substance then its a case of 'so what?', its like all those Brits, Germans, etc... who moved to the US.

Actually, Louisiana might have been far easier for the US, even in the early 19th century than Texas and California were 30 years later. It comes down to the fact that for much of the Napoleonic Wars, the French fleet was effectively bottled up by the British. Without a fleet, there is little practically that France can do to hold the territory. The British are not likely to stop the Americans while they are fighting the French. If anything, they might have been willing to help.

--
Bill
 
Jefferson has felt out the British in this event and the US enters the Napoleonic Wars on the British side. No War of 1812, no diversion of British forces to North America, probably no Andrew Jackson presidency...
 
Actually, Louisiana might have been far easier for the US, even in the early 19th century than Texas and California were 30 years later. It comes down to the fact that for much of the Napoleonic Wars, the French fleet was effectively bottled up by the British. Without a fleet, there is little practically that France can do to hold the territory. The British are not likely to stop the Americans while they are fighting the French. If anything, they might have been willing to help.

--
Bill

It takes more than 10 years to get the big movements of people needed though.
Britain would be fully supporting of it should it happen but I don't think it could
 
Oregon?
That was not 'Texased'. It was given to America just to keep them happy as the government didn't care about it.

There was a 'co-dominion' sort of status arrived at before the Canadian-US border was lengthened to the Pacific. British interests couldn't trump the growing US population there.
 
I think the scenario for the USA taking Louisiana would be somewhat different than Texas and California. In this case, it all centers around New Orleans. Once the peace between Britain and France expires in 1803, the British might try to blockade New Orleans. The USA, which relies on New Orleans for shipping much of its goods that are produced West of the Appalachians to the outside world might protest to England. England, might say that it will not lift the Blockade, but it would not be opposed to the United States taking New Orleans. The rest of Louisiana comes later, but without access to the ocean, it really can't be held by France.

--
Bill
 
Once the peace between Britain and France expires in 1803, the British might try to blockade New Orleans. The USA, which relies on New Orleans for shipping much of its goods that are produced West of the Appalachians to the outside world might protest to England. England, might say that it will not lift the Blockade, but it would not be opposed to the United States taking New Orleans. The rest of Louisiana comes later, but without access to the ocean, it really can't be held by France.
Except by the time the Treaty of Ameims collapses, the US will already be in procession of the Port.
Mississippi was preparing it's forces, when word of the sale arrived.
 
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