No Lincoln assassination

Zeus

Banned
What would happen if the assassination attempt against Lincoln had failed and no other successful attempts would be made throughout Lincoln's Presidency? Would Reconstruction have ended differently? Also, would race relations in the U.S. have began improving much sooner? Finally, would Grant still run in 1868 and would Republicans still dominate the Presidency for several decades as in OTL?
 
What would happen if the assassination attempt against Lincoln had failed and no other successful attempts would be made throughout Lincoln's Presidency? Would Reconstruction have ended differently? Also, would race relations in the U.S. have began improving much sooner? Finally, would Grant still run in 1868 and would Republicans still dominate the Presidency for several decades as in OTL?

#1: Not very likely.

#2: No.

#3: Quite possibly, but quite possibly not as well. Depends on certain specifics.

#4: As with #3.
 
What would happen if the assassination attempt against Lincoln had failed and no other successful attempts would be made throughout Lincoln's Presidency? Would Reconstruction have ended differently? Also, would race relations in the U.S. have began improving much sooner? Finally, would Grant still run in 1868 and would Republicans still dominate the Presidency for several decades as in OTL?

1) No. It might have reached its end sooner and less bloodily, but there's no reason for the outcome itself to be any different.

2) Ditto. The racial divide in the South (and indeed even in the North) ran very deep and one man was never going to change it in any big way.

3) Yes and yes. After Lincoln, Grant was the North's number one hero, and the all but inevitable successor. OTL, the Republicans retained the White House most of the time even without a single electoral vote from the South. So no reason for much to change.
 
I think it's very hard to say how Reconstruction would turn out under Lincoln.

Lincoln would have insisted black freedman be protected unlike Johnson, but he also would have supported a less harsh policy towards ex-Confederates unlike what the Radical Republicans wanted. And unlike Johnson, he would have had a lot more credibility to pursue a more lenient policy. Lincoln could remove harsh and unpopular military governors and not been opposed like Johnson was.

The issue is whether the freedman would have been better protected in the long term. Obviously there would be a lot of racial animosity still, but I think Lincoln (and the likely future Grant administration) would have maintained Federal protection of freedman even after confederate states were readmitted. It might take another constitutional amendment, but it could be done.

If that happens, then it is possible that a strong Republican Party is built in the south based on those who remained unionists during the war, freed blacks, ex-Whigs who sided with the confederacy, and those who hope to gain patronage under the dominant GOP of the era. If so, then there are competitive elections, and old planter aristocracy will not make a comeback to dominate local politics.

If blacks are kept enfranchised (under Federal protection), it's going to happen. Only if blacks are not kept enfranchised will everything happen as IOTL. Everything depends on the precendents Lincoln will set in first few years.

When Grant's second term is over, the election of 1876 might be very different. If someone like Winfield Scott Hancock wins the Democratic nomination and the general election, then even a Democratic presidency might not rollback established Federal protections of freedman (to be honest, even Tilden or any other nothern Democrat might do so). So we might have 20 years of continuous bipartisan national support of civil rights.

So that is the critical question. Depending on the specifics one thinks will happen, lots of things can become plausible. I think this is one of those time periods where lots of things are in play.
 
It depends on what the POD is. If it's in 1864 Reconstruction may not resemble OTL. If it's 1865, the key question is whether or not Lincoln, when he hears of CS soldiers still in CS uniforms murdering freedmen ignores it like Johnson did or authorizes Grant to take the gloves off. If he does nothing, OTL with a somewhat-more-Radical leader than Johnson. If he does something, politics by the 20th Century would be alien to our own USA.
 
If Lincoln live this wouldn't be the same USA. Civil Rights wouldn't been still aa slow time but after the First Great War you will see a more color blind US. The US would be in a lot better position on race, and everything else.
 
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