No Lenin what happens in WW1

Had Lenin not lived and got to Russia I believe that the Bolshevik coup, aka the Great October Revolution would not have happened.

In the election that did happen (after the Bolshevik national seizure of power) Social Revolutionaries, as I understand it a peasant party easily won.

Many Russians were war weary.

Does Russia do some kind of deal or fight on.

I presume that without having thrown in the towel as the Boslsheviks had done something better than Brest Litovsk would have been on offer.

Does Germany do that deal. If not does it collapse faster than otl.
 
This has to be the weirdest coincidence in ages, because I just talked about this with a friend of mine.

Unfortunately I won't get too in-depth now, but I believe Trotsky would have taken over. He was effectively Lenin's right hand, though he was a more militaristic person (considering his role as the founder of the Red Army). Would have an effect on at least the Russian Civil War, though I have no guesses regarding its possible outcome in this scenario.
 
Had Lenin not lived

An easier way to prevent Lenin's arrival into Petrograd is to have the Germans refuse to send him there on a sealed train.

He doesn't have to die for there to be no Russian revolution.

the Bolshevik coup

IMHO I don't believe that it was a coup. The October Revolution was a process lasting several days, beginning with the Provisional Government seizing the Bolshevik press.

The Military Revolutionary Committee (or MRC) was predominately Bolshevik but was primarily an organization under the direction of the Petrograd Soviet.

Furthermore, the Provisional Government by October 1917 was bankrupt, with Lenin urging his party away from supporting the Provisional Government.

After all, this was a government which launched a massive offensive along the Eastern Front even after it said it would only be fighting a defensive war.

It failed to carry out land reform. Fuel shortages were still prevalent in Petrograd. The war hadn't ended yet (and in fact had intensified), etc.

The October Revolution was the result of these many factors.

the soviets had been effectively operating alongside the Provisional Government in a phenomenon known as dual power.

Sooner or later the Provisional Government would either have to make a move against the soviets, or the soviets would have to make a move against the Provisional Government.

In the election that did happen (after the Bolshevik national seizure of power) Social Revolutionaries, as I understand it a peasant party easily won.

The Right SR Party had split in 1917 into a Left SR Party, which joined the Bolsheviks in a coalition government after the Second All-Russian Congress of Soviets.

The thing about the Constituent Assembly was that it did not differentiate between Right and Left SR; only the Right SR party was represented, even though the Left SR party had gained a significant following in the countryside over that of the Right SR party.

The Bolsheviks, if the Left Party had been represented inside the Constituent Assembly, very well could've have won a majority with their partner the Left SR party.

The Constituent Assembly was shut down because the Bolshevik-Left SR parties saw it as a threat to soviet power.
 
An easier way to prevent Lenin's arrival into Petrograd is to have the Germans refuse to send him there on a sealed train.

A less known aspects of The Great War was how both blocks tried to bribe neutrals into joining the war. How Lawrence of Arabia got the beduins to revolt against the Ottoman Empire is a classic, but there were a lot of less successful agents out there.

For example, the germans spent a lot of money and energy to create a muslim jihad against their British, French and Russian enemies, since all three countries had million of muslims within their borders/colonies.

By early 1917 it was clear to the Germans that
a) they would lose the war due to pure attrition even without the US joining the Entrete.
b) but Russia was in all ways the weakest of the Entrete countries, due to internal turmoil, inept political leadership and many structural problems.

So the German intelligence was almost predestined to try some destabelizig operation against Russia to push them out of the war. And the easiest way would be to use the Bolshievik party - ruthless, energetic and ready to make any deals to gain power. And Lenin was the best leader for the Bolshieviks.

But lets assume Lenin died. The German agents would just find another ally, give him as much money and support that Lenin got and be sent to the Finland Station. What happens next is another question. Internal powerstruggles among the communists, distracting them from the bigger picture? Would a more agressive leder like Tolstoy create an anti-bolsjevik force among the provisional government?
 
If their is no Lenin would their even be any attempt at a revolution? Trostky was Lenin's right hand man, but he was disliked for being an ex-Menshivik and Jewish. Would Kerensky and company still screw things up big time with the 1917 offensive, if so we could see a different Russian Civil War out an alternate peace treaty between Russia and Germany.
 
There might still be a revolution, but if Trotsky isn't as effective a leader as Lenin, you may have the Kerensky government succeed, and if by some chance the Reds win, then it would be easier for Stalin to get rid of Trotsky than Lenin.
 
There might still be a revolution, but if Trotsky isn't as effective a leader as Lenin, you may have the Kerensky government succeed, and if by some chance the Reds win, then it would be easier for Stalin to get rid of Trotsky than Lenin.

Stalin being important in the revolution is nowhere near a certainty, the dude could have easily died early on and been forgotten. And Trotsky really isn't a worse leader for the civil war than Lenin, he was the military man of the bolsheviks in the civil war and that skill won't change here.
 
Revolution still possible....

After the February 1917 Revolution, the Provisional Government set the stage for a second revolution (the Bolshevik's October Revolution) by refusing to withdraw the war-weary Russian Empire from World War I.

Lenin, who returned to Russia from exile in Switzerland as fast as he possibly could during wartime, arrived in St. Peterburg in mid-April of 1917. Lenin, through his April Theses plan, was instrumental in selling his fellow Bolsheviks and other Russian revolutionaries on the importance of a second and almost immediate communist revolution against the bourgeois Provisional Government. Lenin's fellow revolutionaries in Russia were inclined to support the Provision Government in accordance with Marxist theory, which held that a bourgeois (or middle-class democratic) revolution was necessary first, to be followed much later by a communist revolution.

After the failure of the Russian Army's summer "Kerensky Offensive" against the Austrian and German forces in July of 1917, the collapse of the Russian Army's will to fight (with mass desertions and refusals of soldiers to fight except defensively) and the continued refusal of the Provisional Government to pursue an armistice with the Germans probably doomed Russia to either a second revolution or a Russian military coup in late 1917 or early 1918 with or without Lenin. If the revolution was successful, then history follows much the same course for the next few years with another assuming Lenin's leadership role. If the revolution was unsuccessful, then a dictatorship under Kerensky or some Russian general was likely.

It is difficult to see how any Russian government could continue the war on the side of Western allies against the Germans after 1917. Lenin or no-Lenin, an armistice ending Russia's involvement in World War I was likely in early 1918, though perhaps not as harsh as the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
 
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