What if the Arctic and Persian routes were far more heavily guarded by German U Boats than in OTL and the Japanese would block Russian ships in bringing material form the US? As a result nearly no Lend Lease would come through to the USSR.
Here some numbers: From Autumn 1941 to Summer 1945 Lend Lease delivered to the Russians:
14 795 aircraft, 7056 tanks, 1800 self propelled guns, 131 633 Submachines guns, 345 735 Short tons of explosives, 90 cargo vessels, 105 submarine chasers, 197 torpedo boats, 7784 marine engines.
1981 locomotives, 11 155 freight cars, 51 503 jeeps, 375 833 trucks,
35 170 motorcycles, 3 786 000 tyres, machinery + equipment in value exeeding 1 Billion dollar, Construction machinery value exeeding 11 million dollar.
2 800 000 short tons of steel, 802 000 shorst tons of non-ferrous metals, 2 670 000 short tons petrochemicals, 842 000 short tons ordinary chemicals.
106 900 000 yards of cotton cloth, 62 500 000 yards of wool cloth,
49 860 short tons of leather, 15 417 000 pair of army boots and
4 478 000 000 short tons foodstuff.
Additionally Great Britain and Canada delivered some 7869 aircraft, 4699 tanks and 114 000 tons of rubber.
From December 41 to May 42 the Western Allies (US+GB+Canada) delivered to Russia 1441 aircraft and 1678 tanks
From May 42 to November 42 some 2601 aircraft and 2904 tanks were delivered.
From November 42 to July 43 some 4355 aircraft and 2413 tanks were delivered.
From July 43 to January 44 some 4851 aircraft and 1385 tanks were
delivered.
From January 44 to June 44 another 3103 aircraft and 1310 tanks were delivered.
From June 44 to January 45 the Allies supplied 3356 aircraft and 1913 tanks.
From January 45 untill July 45 the last 1914 aircraft and 836 tanks were delivered.
From June 22nd to 1 st January 1944 some 173 000 trucks and 33 000 jeeps were delivered, from 1st January 44 to July 1945 another 190 000 trucks and 19 000 Jeeps.
Source: Mark Harrison Soviet planning in peace and war. 1938-1945.
Here the possible options:
Without Lend Lease Russia is pushed back bit by bit. The war in the East "ends" once the Germans reach the Urals and establish a defence perimiter there.
Stalemate on the Front as it was in November 1942. The Germans cant take Stalingrad but the Russians cant mount an counteroffensive and kick them out from the Caucasus.
With much greater casualties than in OTL the Russians manage to push the Germans back to the Dnepr where the Russian offensive is haltet.
With much greater casualties than in OTL the Red Army meets the Allied forces near Warsaw in late August 1945, just a few days before the simultaneous German-japanese surrender on September 2nd 1945.
Is there another option and which is the most likely?
Fire away with criticism
