No Lend Lease for Russia

BlondieBC

Banned
The most important item the USA provided the USSR was trucks. Both the truck and the Panzer is required for functional tank armies. Without trucks, massed tanks can break through lines, but the army grinds to a halt when the tank runs low on fuel and ammo. Imagine a tank army that is partially supplied by horse logistics or the constructions of railroads.

In 1941, the USSR had disbanded the tank armies and the time line is likely to be near OTL. There could be some butterflies that really help the Nazis a lot, but I don't really see any that are likely.

Japan unexpectedly blocking the trade routes is the first big departure. The USSR would have likely declared war on Japan, since the stopping of trade ships is an act of war. The Soviets deployed transfer Siberian troops around Moscow in December 1941. This will still happen, however, the USSR will likely need to transfer troops back to Siberia, so they will be somewhat weaker in 1942.

The Summer campaign is likely to be much like OTL. Stalingrad still occurs, and wears down the german army. The Russians will have fewer trucks, so their tank army may move a bit slower; however, they still likely cut off the German forces in Stalingrad. Again, some potential butterflies, but unlikely major help to the Germans. The major butterfly would be part or all of the 6th Army surviving.

In 1943, the Germans will attack again. Maybe not Kursks, but some where. Losses will be heavy on both sides. The real question is will the Soviets have the forces to launch a major winter offensive in the winter of 43/44. IMO, it is likely the offensive would occur, but be much weaker.
With fewer trucks, planes, and armor;, the summer 44 offensive is likely to be modest soviet success, and the rapid advance of 1944 does not occur. The Americans and British take a lot more casualties in the West. The war lasts long enough for atomic bombs to be used on Germany, and this means the USA invades Japan in the fall of 45.
 
Well,

without landlease the russians are significant weaker...
they are strong enough to stop the germans in 1941, but
a.) if they have to produce all the stuff themself they lack a lot men (and more important material, esp, locomotives to move the stuff and cloths for the soldiers..!)
b.) if they lack all the needed fuel and materials to use in their weapons they are seriously weaker... so no strong counteroffensive in winter 1942... they lack the men and the material

in 1943 it will be worse... they are nearly immobile, so they will make a peace with germany if the western allies don´t invade. If they invade they get problems... without russia being such a pain in the butt for the germans (cause they too cannot advance, so it is basically a stalement,mabye a failed german try to capture leningrad, another (failed) try to catch the caucasus, thats it, the russians could assault, but after some failures they will stop, they will loose to much troops, so they will try to produce more needed things (no weapons! food and fuel and transport capacity), but if the wallies do nothing (at last it looks like) they could make a deal with hitler...

but it is totally asb that russia do not get its landlease-stuff... i just want to make clear, without it russia cannot win. it can´t loose either, but winning is not possible without the landlease-stuff.
 
I'm not seeing how this brings Japan into the war against the Sovs....:confused::confused: Attacks on Sov-flagged transports, or even U.S. transports bound for Vladivostok, didn't happen OTL. Why would that change?:confused:
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'm not seeing how this brings Japan into the war against the Sovs....:confused::confused: Attacks on Sov-flagged transports, or even U.S. transports bound for Vladivostok, didn't happen OTL. Why would that change?:confused:

If there is no lend-lease, that means likely there is no FDR. So assume no oil embargo, and the Army wins the argument and Japan moves against the Northern Resource area.

Or maybe Stalin declares war on Japan, much like Hitler declare war on the USA after Pearl Harbor.
 
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