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Change is simple-Elizabeth of Luxembourg is not pregnant when her husband, Albert Habsburg died on 27 October 1439. Thus Elizabeth could not hope that she'll give birth to a son who will inherit his father's and grandfather's thrones. Hungarians would still elect 15 years old Vladislaus III of Poland to the throne and just like IOTL would convince Elizabeth to marry young Polish king. IOTL pregnant Elizabeth agreed for this proposition initialy-only to buy some time. ITTL she have nothing to wait for. Would she really marry Vladislas in such case? Seemingly it is only chance for her to stay in touch with the throne. If so changes would be really interesting...
Hungary would avoid civil war, Jiskra would not estabilish himself as de facto ruler of Upper Hungary. And the most important thing-without conflict between Vladislas and Elizabeth there is no need for mediation, so pope Eugenius IV would not send to Hungary fanatic cardinal Cesarini who encouraged Vladislas to break peace with Ottomans and start crusade that cost 20 years old king his life?
Elizabeth, being intelligent and ambitious would quickly realise that Vladislav is easy to manipulate. IOTL he was manipulated by bishop Zbigniew Oleśnicki in Poland, then in Hungary by his advisor Mikołaj Lasocki, send to Buda with king by Oleśnicki, and finally by cardinal Cesarini. Maybe ITTL king will be manipulated by his wife instead? Especially if her death at age 33 is butterflied away.
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