No Ladislaus the Posthumous

[Jan Olbracht]

Change is simple-Elizabeth of Luxembourg is not pregnant when her husband, Albert Habsburg died on 27 October 1439. Thus Elizabeth could not hope that she'll give birth to a son who will inherit his father's and grandfather's thrones. Hungarians would still elect 15 years old Vladislaus III of Poland to the throne and just like IOTL would convince Elizabeth to marry young Polish king. IOTL pregnant Elizabeth agreed for this proposition initialy-only to buy some time. ITTL she have nothing to wait for. Would she really marry Vladislas in such case? Seemingly it is only chance for her to stay in touch with the throne. If so changes would be really interesting...
Hungary would avoid civil war, Jiskra would not estabilish himself as de facto ruler of Upper Hungary. And the most important thing-without conflict between Vladislas and Elizabeth there is no need for mediation, so pope Eugenius IV would not send to Hungary fanatic cardinal Cesarini who encouraged Vladislas to break peace with Ottomans and start crusade that cost 20 years old king his life?
Elizabeth, being intelligent and ambitious would quickly realise that Vladislav is easy to manipulate. IOTL he was manipulated by bishop Zbigniew Oleśnicki in Poland, then in Hungary by his advisor Mikołaj Lasocki, send to Buda with king by Oleśnicki, and finally by cardinal Cesarini. Maybe ITTL king will be manipulated by his wife instead? Especially if her death at age 33 is butterflied away.

 

[kasumigenx]

Change is simple-Elizabeth of Luxembourg is not pregnant when her husband, Albert Habsburg died on 27 October 1439. Thus Elizabeth could not hope that she'll give birth to a son who will inherit his father's and grandfather's thrones. Hungarians would still elect 15 years old Vladislaus III of Poland to the throne and just like IOTL would convince Elizabeth to marry young Polish king. IOTL pregnant Elizabeth agreed for this proposition initialy-only to buy some time. ITTL she have nothing to wait for. Would she really marry Vladislas in such case? Seemingly it is only chance for her to stay in touch with the throne. If so changes would be really interesting...
Hungary would avoid civil war, Jiskra would not estabilish himself as de facto ruler of Upper Hungary. And the most important thing-without conflict between Vladislas and Elizabeth there is no need for mediation, so pope Eugenius IV would not send to Hungary fanatic cardinal Cesarini who encouraged Vladislas to break peace with Ottomans and start crusade that cost 20 years old king his life?
Elizabeth, being intelligent and ambitious would quickly realise that Vladislav is easy to manipulate. IOTL he was manipulated by bishop Zbigniew Oleśnicki in Poland, then in Hungary by his advisor Mikołaj Lasocki, send to Buda with king by Oleśnicki, and finally by cardinal Cesarini. Maybe ITTL king will be manipulated by his wife instead? Especially if her death at age 33 is butterflied away.

I think she can have a son with Vladislav which will settle the Polish/Casimir III succession.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

It is possible, Vladislas would also took Czech throne-there was large support for Jagiellons among Czechs and Habsburg heir was never born.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

But still it would be better if Vladislas do not live too long. Three kingdoms would not be easy to manage and his brother Casimir was more capable ruler than him.
Say Vladislas and Elizabeth have single son: Sigismund, born 1 May (feast of St. Sigismund) 1442. Vladislas do not came to Varna but still dies young killed by disease in 1451 aged 27. His 9 years old son is elected to the thrones of Hungary and Bohemia as Sigismund II. Meanwhile in Poland his brother Casimir get Polish crown restoring Polish-Lithuanian union.

 

[kasumigenx]

Any issue of Elizabeth and Vladislaus is the legitimate heir of Casimir III, perhaps the daughters of Elizabeth such as Margaret get married to the other siblings of Vladislaus to keep the succession in the family.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Being descendant of Casimir III do not guarantee election to the Polish throne, for nobles of Poland union with Lithuania is more profitable than union with Hungary so Casimir is still going to be elected even if Vladislas has a son. And I'm not sure if Casimir would marry his brother's step-daughter.

 

[kasumigenx]

Being descendant of Casimir III do not guarantee election to the Polish throne, for nobles of Poland union with Lithuania is more profitable than union with Hungary so Casimir is still going to be elected even if Vladislas has a son. And I'm not sure if Casimir would marry his brother's step-daughter.

perhaps a marriage with Margaret of Austria, the eldest daughter of Elizabeth would work as a compromise.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

perhaps a marriage with Margaret of Austria, the eldest daughter of Elizabeth would work as a compromise.

You mean Anna of Austria (born 1432)? She was maried to Wettin duke in 1446. It is unlikely she'll marry Casimir, especially during her step-father lifetime. From Vladislas' POV Casimir has "stolen" Lithuania from him (he send Casimir to Lithuania in 1440 as his governor, instead once in Vilnius Casimir was crowned Grand Duke of Lithuania) so relations between brothers would not be very warm. I suppose Casimir would marry after he is elected to Polish throne and would look for wife in Brandenburg to get ally against Teutonic Order.

 

[kasumigenx]

You mean Anna of Austria (born 1432)? She was maried to Wettin duke in 1446. It is unlikely she'll marry Casimir, especially during her step-father lifetime. From Vladislas' POV Casimir has "stolen" Lithuania from him (he send Casimir to Lithuania in 1440 as his governor, instead once in Vilnius Casimir was crowned Grand Duke of Lithuania) so relations between brothers would not be very warm. I suppose Casimir would marry after he is elected to Polish throne and would look for wife in Brandenburg to get ally against Teutonic Order.

perhaps Anna and Elizabeth get married to loyal vassals of Casimir like the Duke of Mazovia to guarantee succession of his son(s).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Daughters of King of the Romans are not going to marry mere Dukes of Mazovia, and Casimir would not be the one deciding about their future.
BTW how would the last will of Albert Habsburg looks like? IOTL he predicted that he's going to have son and made his unborn child heir of all his lands and titles (despite fact that not all of them were hereditary).

 

[kasumigenx]

Daughters of King of the Romans are not going to marry mere Dukes of Mazovia, and Casimir would not be the one deciding about their future.
BTW how would the last will of Albert Habsburg looks like? IOTL he predicted that he's going to have son and made his unborn child heir of all his lands and titles (despite fact that not all of them were hereditary).

I don't think Wladyslaw is going to be stupid if he has sons he might live longer.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Yes, not going to Varna means Władek lives longer, but I want him to still die young (but at least he'll not die in disastrous battle and would leave son ITTL) because longer he lives = more problems he generates, especially in Poland where in absence of king Oleśnicki would still dominate. Vladislas would not appoint his brother as his governor in Poland fearing that he'll do the same thing he did in Lithuania (where he also was intended to be just his brother's hand).