No Korean War - Effects on Japan

Suppose that the Korean War is either avoided or is far shorter (and less expensive) than OTL - maybe Stalin doesn’t give the go ahead, maybe Mao loses the Chinese Civil War, or maybe China just doesn’t intervene. In any event - Japan is still defeated by the Allies, but TTL doesn’t get the massive wartime economic stimulus in the early 1950’s.

How does this specific economic change affect this specific country? How, if at all, is the US Occupation affected? How does this prolonged economic hardship affect Japanese society in the short term? How do these changes affect Japan going forward? And how do all these changes, taken together, affect the wider world - be it the dynamics of the Cold War in the East, global pop culture, or what have you?
 
Interesting question.
Some thoughts:
If the KW is just shorter it will depend entirely on why it is shorter; NK win, NK lose or early stalemate. If NK win then the Red scare will be much bigger and more money headed from the USA to Japan...massive boost to Japanese economy many times greater than OTL.
If NK lose quickly, US triumph of arms alters the Red scare to "easily containable", so some boost to Japan, far less than OTL. The bigger effect would be on the world economy; no Korean War boost for Germany, no massive inflation in the price of commodities. That actually helps the UK economy because no need to re-arm, no conscription, no manpower shortage...earlier recovery from the effects of WW2 (note: it may encourage an attempt to prolong the Empire...a very bad economic choice for later on....)
If no KW at all, no Red scare, Japan and Germany don't get an economic boost, no massive re-armament in the West, less inflation but the Uncle Ike years not so prosperous...possibly more US unemployment (?). No re-armament may mean no Military Industrial Complex arising in the USA...no arms race of great magnitude.
Culturally US popular culture still pretty much sweeps the world; it is the culture of the country which won WW2 and is attractive both in itself and as a symbol of a democratic system which has raised living standards for the mass of its people.
 

trurle

Banned
Suppose that the Korean War is either avoided or is far shorter (and less expensive) than OTL - maybe Stalin doesn’t give the go ahead, maybe Mao loses the Chinese Civil War, or maybe China just doesn’t intervene. In any event - Japan is still defeated by the Allies, but TTL doesn’t get the massive wartime economic stimulus in the early 1950’s.
Or the Pusan Perimeter collapses under North Korean assault, leading to rapid end of Korean War the other way. In this case, US investment to Japan will be even larger than IOTL, starting from industry of body bags.

In case of rapid US plus South Korean victory, i do not predict the Japan will be seriously affected in 195x - the buildup against Soviet Union will open markets for Japanese business anyway, and markets are going to be larger - due to larger united Korea. On the other hand, Japanese stagnation (lost decade etc.) is likely going to happen earlier compared to OTL, under competitive pressure from Korea.
 
An amendment to my first post:
Conscription in the UK began in 1949 but was increased in length to two years in 1950....because of the KW.
So conscription would still be extant but if no KW not increased and possibly ended earlier.
 
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