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Lets say that for whatever reason (enough grain from the ukraine, something else) that the Germans don't go on the offensive in March 1918 and prepare themselves for the allied offensives and hopefully respond with a few good counterattacks Cambrai style. This means that they are able to hold out for the rest of the year and are hoping for enough allied blood to be spilled so that they can negotiate a reasonable peace. It is not a perfect plan, but all that they can hope for, as it is realized that their offensive would not end the war and the allies won't agree to a peace just yet.

So what are their chances? My thoughts are not good. The main reason for the large allie advances later that year were the loss of moral, the loss of the last remaining quality troops, and the overextended nature of their troops. Frankly, I don't know what they could say to get their troops to continue fighting, but without the Stormtrooper units being formed on the large scale, much of the quality of the regular army units is retained and perserved. Hopefully (for the Germans) the extra time will enable them to get extra lines ready in depth with enough strong points to bleed the French and Brits to death, while forcing the Americans to realize how much it would take to force the issue to the end.

This would make the OTL giant leap and Black day of the German army disappear. Without the massive losses French and Brits could not afford the casualties that would be coming, but the Americans would. The question is, what would be too many casualties? I would think that the American public would have a limit to how many sons it would sacrifice for that European war.

So what do you gentlemen think? Could the Germans hold out long enough to force a 'fair' peace?
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