No July Crisis, Austro-Hungarian Civil War

Rumania was still allied with A/H at this point. Even after the outbreak of WW1 it waited two years before risking intervention. Why would it risk butting in when there is no general war to join, and they have no guarantee of finding any allies?

As for Serbia, it wasn't looking for a fight in 1914. Look at the way it accepted 90% of the Austrian ultimatum, despite having far more hope of Russian support than it would have in this situation, where it is launching an unprovoked attack for no reason except that it doesn't happen to like the Emperor.

That's true for 1914. But the OP's premise involves Franz Ferdinand taking the throne "some time in late 1910s", I'm guessing 1916/1917 (based on Franz Joseph's OTL lifespan). Many things will change by that time.

King Carol of Romania will die, and with his death A-H loses practically its only friend in the Romanian leadership. By 1914 Romania's alliance was already just polite neutrality - Carol himself declared that it's impossible to honor the alliance since public opinion in Romania is too strongly against A-H. After his death, the weak ties to A-H were and will be completely broken.

Serbia will mostly recover from the human and material losses of the Balkan Wars. It might not be confident enough yet to actively look for a fight, but if the Habsburg monarchy experiences such a huge breakdown of order as a civil war...ditto Romania. And they will likely not be alone.
 
I don't understand the idea that the Romanians and Serbs would get involved, given that it is the Hungarians who are oppressing Romanians and Serbs within the Monarchy, not the Austrians.

Only partially true. It is the Hungarian elites which are oppressing the Romanians, not the Austrians - but for half a century they've been doing it with Austria's consent.

The Romanians' faith in Vienna was badly shaken after 1848 and especially in the 1890s (when Franz Joseph refused to even read an important Romanian petition). Franz Ferdinand was a bit more popular, so he has a chance to keep the Romanians on his side, but only if he settles on federalization. And only if the less popular sides of FF's plans stay hidden (his overall reactionary ideas; or how FF was against any improvement in Romanian rights in the 1910s because he thought it would weaken his position). Otherwise they might very well look for a solution outside Austria and Hungary.

As for the Serbs, not really. Their oppression and other problems in Bosnia and Croatia were mostly related to the Monarchy itself, not to the Hungarians. The Hungarian elites, bad as they were, were sometimes even the voice of moderation when compared to the state's more radical ideas and actions against the Serbs.
 
The civil war would be over very fast, maybe even by christmas?

Let's see:
-The Hungarian state is unpopular with 50% of its population
-The Hungarian leadership is unpopular with anyone capable of voicing his opinion
-The Hungarian army is underfunded and underequipped (hungarians arent stupid and know all this, would they even fight?)
-Hungariy is an agrarian state while Austria (and Bohemia) are industrialized
-Austria has Germany while Hungary has no one
-A Russian intervention is virtually out of question, the last thing Russia wants is even more Poles in the empire
-Serbian/Romanian intervention can happen but they'd then have to face the Austrian army, it might be a hard fight but they'd lose without a foreign sponsor (getting attacked is easier to sell to foreigners than attacking).
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The civil war would be over very fast, maybe even by christmas?

Let's see:
-The Hungarian state is unpopular with 50% of its population
-The Hungarian leadership is unpopular with anyone capable of voicing his opinion
-The Hungarian army is underfunded and underequipped (hungarians arent stupid and know all this, would they even fight?)
-Hungariy is an agrarian state while Austria (and Bohemia) are industrialized
-Austria has Germany while Hungary has no one
-A Russian intervention is virtually out of question, the last thing Russia wants is even more Poles in the empire
-Serbian/Romanian intervention can happen but they'd then have to face the Austrian army, it might be a hard fight but they'd lose without a foreign sponsor (getting attacked is easier to sell to foreigners than attacking).

Agree here- the only risk is a Russian led intervention. I would say its a little more likely than "virtually out of the question" because of the long history of Austria resisting Russia in the Balkans.

Of course, the Russians might be bought off with some compensation to eliminate the danger- the Straits and the Black Sea drainage basin for example
 
if there is full scale civil war, the Russians, Romanians, Italians and Serbs are likely to jump in and take what they want. The French and Germans be damned.

The Germans won't like it but what can they do? Without Austrian help, they really have nothing and with Austria in a civil war, the Germans have nothing

If Germany mobilizes, France mobilizes and the Germans would have to face the Franco-Rusian coalition by herself. Not going to happen

Germany would probably be given Germanic lands but their days of being a great power are effectively over

Uhhh... Germany wasn't a Great Power just because of their alliance with Austria-Hungary. They were a Great Power because they were incredibly strong economically, militarily, industrially, etc. The fact of the matter is that Germany was THE most powerful single nation on continental Europe at the outbreak of WWI. Against any other Great Power besides the UK in a one versus one scenario, they would have been victorious. Consider how much of a fight they put up when half the goddamn planet was fighting against them. Even after Versailles they were still one of the most powerful nations on the planet... even today, they have the 4th largest economy by nominal GDP.

If Germany gets Germanic areas of AH then they will be even more powerful than OTL, with more land, resources, and population.
 
Agree here- the only risk is a Russian led intervention. I would say its a little more likely than "virtually out of the question" because of the long history of Austria resisting Russia in the Balkans.

Of course, the Russians might be bought off with some compensation to eliminate the danger- the Straits and the Black Sea drainage basin for example

The Austrians arent in charge of the Straits, the Russians might as well ask them for Alaska.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The Austrians arent in charge of the Straits, the Russians might as well ask them for Alaska.


Austria's opposition is really the only that was holding the Russians back. Britain had long lost interest and France isn't going to object. Germany would love to see Austria and Russia settle their differences in the Balkans and Italy is not a power of much account.

Germany would back anything that Austria agreed to- so yes, Austria is really the last stumbling block
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
Austria's opposition is really the only that was holding the Russians back...Germany would back anything that Austria agreed to- so yes, Austria is really the last stumbling block

Assuming that that's the case -- and I'm not 100% certain that it is, given German investment and interest in the Ottoman Empire -- it must be noted that Franz Ferdinand wanted to patch up differences with Russia as well; he was reportedly quite fond of the idea of reforming the League of Three Emperors.

Given that Russia was purportedly planning for an attack on Turkey somewhere in the late 1910s once they felt the Black Sea Fleet was in proper shape to support the assault, and that the prospect of a Third Balkan War between Greece and Turkey before that was strong, it's not inconceivable that Russia would be in a position to make good on an effort to seize the Straits just about the time that Austria would be willing to concede the point. It may even be that a Christian reclaiming of Constantinople might appeal to then-Emperor Franz's piety, as long as he could overlook that it was Orthodoxy and not Catholicism that was doing so.
 
The civil war would be over very fast, maybe even by christmas?

Let's see:
-The Hungarian state is unpopular with 50% of its population
-The Hungarian leadership is unpopular with anyone capable of voicing his opinion
-The Hungarian army is underfunded and underequipped (hungarians arent stupid and know all this, would they even fight?)
-Hungariy is an agrarian state while Austria (and Bohemia) are industrialized
-Austria has Germany while Hungary has no one
-A Russian intervention is virtually out of question, the last thing Russia wants is even more Poles in the empire
-Serbian/Romanian intervention can happen but they'd then have to face the Austrian army, it might be a hard fight but they'd lose without a foreign sponsor (getting attacked is easier to sell to foreigners than attacking).



Another point which I haven't seen raised - the Hungarian railway system.

This was almost entirely radial from Budapest, sometimes to the point of absurdity. Frex, if you wanted to get from Vienna to Agram (now Zagreb) in those days, you had to go all the way to Budapest and change trains. And almost all travel between different parts of Hungary had to go through the capital.

Thus, as soon as the Austrians have restored order in Budapest, Hungary is effectively fragmented. Any rebellious bands which might have popped up elsewhere would find it difficult or impossible to co-ordinate their activities.

Ditto for any intervention by Serbia or Rumania. In the (imho wildly unlikely) event of this happening, they might be able to cross the border, but the lack of lateral communications would mean that they could not co-operate effectively, and would be exposing themselves to defeat in detail.

Nor would there be any reason for Russia to help them. While the Tsar obviously doesn't want them conquered by Austria (which Austria on this scenario would have far too much else on its plate to attempt) neither does he particularly want them aggrandised. After all, the bigger and stronger they get, the less need they have of Russian support or protection. So Nicky has no incentive to risk a full-blown European war just to give them an extra province or two.
 
Why? Wilhelm II and Franz Ferdinand were on excellent terms.

True. But Wilhelm II might make the calculation that Austria is doomed, and rather than go down with it in a continental wide war or stand by and let it be regime changed by a Franco-Russian alliance, it may cut a deal a la the German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact whereby, Germany and Russia agree to a mutual partition of the unfortunate state wedged between them.
 
True. But Wilhelm II might make the calculation that Austria is doomed, and rather than go down with it in a continental wide war or stand by and let it be regime changed by a Franco-Russian alliance, it may cut a deal a la the German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact whereby, Germany and Russia agree to a mutual partition of the unfortunate state wedged between them.


Why should he think it was doomed? There had been no insurrections since 1849, and a few deputies throwing inkpots at the Speaker does not of itself indicate the end of a great power.

Indeed, as of 1914 the Romanovs' throne looked more precarious than the Habsburgs'.
 
True. But Wilhelm II might make the calculation that Austria is doomed, and rather than go down with it in a continental wide war or stand by and let it be regime changed by a Franco-Russian alliance, it may cut a deal a la the German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact whereby, Germany and Russia agree to a mutual partition of the unfortunate state wedged between them.

The primary goal of German pre-WWI policy was containment of Russia. Indeed, the war was instigated in part because German estimates put Russia as overcoming Germany by 1917 in industry and military (we know, with hindsight, that his is unrealistic and that Russia is a paper tiger, but the perception at the time didn't really notice that). Secondly, it was the conservatives (predominantly Prussian - those that dominated Germany in many ways) that were major proponents of backing Austria-Hungary to the hilt.

Wilhelm II making such a decision would be wildly out of character, both for him and for Germany as a whole. While he was willing to consider an alliance with Russia (on German terms ... notably, both the German and Russian foreign ministries very much weren't in favour), he's unlikely to reduce Germany's status/power in favour of Russia by effectively depriving Germany of its one reliable Germanic ally (however worthless it might but, but which Germany can influence and Russia can't).

The only people who might be in favour of throwing Austria-Hungary to the wolves are Pan-Germanists (a fringe group at that, the majority of conservatives didn't want Austria and Bohemia in the Empire - too many Catholics, plus liable to threaten Prussia's primacy in Germany) and, in theory, the Socialists. And Wilhelm II was very much not a friend of Socialists of any stripe. And you'd need to go a long way before the pan-Germanists got the kind of popular appeal to be able to influence the ever-mercurial Wilhelm for the length of time needed for him to reach such a decision and stick to it.
 
Another point which I haven't seen raised - the Hungarian railway system.

This was almost entirely radial from Budapest, sometimes to the point of absurdity. Frex, if you wanted to get from Vienna to Agram (now Zagreb) in those days, you had to go all the way to Budapest and change trains. And almost all travel between different parts of Hungary had to go through the capital.

Thus, as soon as the Austrians have restored order in Budapest, Hungary is effectively fragmented. Any rebellious bands which might have popped up elsewhere would find it difficult or impossible to co-ordinate their activities.....


Hmm...but wasn't this also the case in 1848-1850 when the Austrians sent an army into Buda and Pest in January 1849 (easily taking the cities) but Hungarian revolution still raged with Kossuth garnering support in the provinces and the Hungarians eventually retaking Buda-Pest in a few months?
 
Hmm...but wasn't this also the case in 1848-1850 when the Austrians sent an army into Buda and Pest in January 1849 (easily taking the cities) but Hungarian revolution still raged with Kossuth garnering support in the provinces and the Hungarians eventually retaking Buda-Pest in a few months?


There were far fewer railways in 1849. It's now much easier for the Austrians to bring their force to bear.

And Hungary had a separately organised army then. In 1914 it only had a militia with no artillery units.

The art of war has moved on since Kossuth's time. The days when bands of peasants with rough and ready weapons could take on an army are long gone. Bulgaria/1877-8 was about the last one - and until a (Russian) regular army intervened, even then the Turks were getting the better of it.
 
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