No John A. Macdonald

If it weren't for John A. Macdonald, how would Confederation be affected? Would certain parts of Canada be annexed by the US? What about Louis Riel?
 
Without John A. MacDonald, it's quite likely that the Maritime provinces form the "Maritime Union" that they initially wanted to create. However, the Maritime Union would not assuage fears of the US conquering British North America, so some sort of entity from Canada East to British Columbia would certainly be created by the mid-1870s, at least.

In regards to Riel, most Anglophones migrating to Manitoba were Ontarians, so I can't see his rebellions being deeply affected by this.
 
Without John A. MacDonald, it's quite likely that the Maritime provinces form the "Maritime Union" that they initially wanted to create. However, the Maritime Union would not assuage fears of the US conquering British North America, so some sort of entity from Canada East to British Columbia would certainly be created by the mid-1870s, at least.

In regards to Riel, most Anglophones migrating to Manitoba were Ontarians, so I can't see his rebellions being deeply affected by this.

Unless you get some butterflies from MacDonald absence beforehand a maritime union is just not gonna happen. PEI feared to be drown by the numerically superiors other maritime colonies and refused to go for it unless Charlottetown was made capital. That was a no deal for Nova Scotia, who saw the very idea of anybody else then Halifax (far more significant at the time then today) as an insult.

OTL MacDonald and the rest of the delegation at Charlottetown had a mere observer status at first, its only when those differences sunk the idea of a Maritime Union that the delegates present allowed them to present the concept of the canadian confederation.
 
With no Macdonald, assuming everything in Canadian history proceeds as normal post 1815, then you run into a political crisis sometime in the late 1850s early 1860s. Politically, the system in the Province of Canada was unworkable in the long run with the people of Canada unable to accomplish anything in the assembly due to the double majority needed in the Assembly as stipulated by the Act of Union in 1840. Now without Macdonald it's not clear whether the Great Coalition of 1864 is totally workable since it was Macdonald's charm and political savvy which helped build the bridges between the French and English sides. However, its also conceivable that men like Cartier and Brown would be able to make a shaky alliance of convenience to reform the political system.

The biggest question is whether Cartier could convince others in Canada to pursue the goal of Confederation like he desired. He might be able to overhaul the political system in the Province of Canada, but getting the Maritime provinces on side might take time as they had a vocal portion of the population who declined confederation until the last minute. It's possible that economic pressure and the almost inevitable construction of a Halifax-Quebec railroad will push them together sometime in the 1870s, but there's things that may prevent that from happening.
 
You could conceivably have a united Maritime province within a greater confederation by the 1880's.

I genuinely feel that Canadian Confederation was going to happen, too much pressure from London, and fear of American manifest destiny. Too many characters like Cartier, Brown and McGee are in play for there not to be political unification of some form.

Contrary to the popular opinion of some, confederation even happening is evident of a very strong desire to not be swallowed up by the USA in the population and establishment. Consider every government up until the 1988, that even breathed a word of free trade with the USA, and you get an idea of the peoples attitude to the neighbor below.

With a later confederation I dont think the constrictive policies (ie the national policy) that focused attention on the Great Lakes and St Lawrence valley, and crippled Maritime industry, would get the go ahead.

A wagon trail to BC would still be persued by the Canadian government, as their driving goal was not to be surrounded by the USA.
 
Confederation isn't an out and out impossibility without John A. I agree, I just think it may have been delayed 10 years or so without him to push the process along a little bit. All the economic and military incentive was there, it had been suggested as early as 1858, and once a rail road connects Halifax and Montreal (or hell the abortive railroad between St. John and Riviere-du-Loup actually was constructed) then there's going to be an impetus to connect the two politically.

BC is a bit of an issue. Unless Canada purchases Rupert's Land the idea of a wagon road is a bit of a non starter, and you might see more debate regarding annexation into the United States, but if Canada became a thing by 1870 (with attendant purchase of Rupert's Land) then the same pressure to join Canada proper would still exist. You'd need a much more expansionist US to change that I think, which could jump start the process anyways.

The only way (in my mind) to completely derail Confederation is if the Reform policies of Baldwin and Lafontaine fail after 1840, which could see an acrimonious divide develop in pre-Confederation Canada and completely polarize the French and English speaking communities. There were those concerned the only way to move forward with the political/economic problems facing Canada was to settle the language question once and for all.
 
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