No Jagiellons

Say that Jogaila's third wife Elżbieta Granowska outlived him, thus he dies without sons and do not start new dynasty. He still have daughter from his second marriage, Jadwiga (Hedwig) born in 1408. She was engaged with Frederick Hohenzollern, born in 1413, son of Elector of Brandenburg but eventually she died unmarried in December 1431. With her brothers never born her marriage would be more important question than IOTL but say that she still dies young and childless (there were rumors that Jadwiga was poisoned by her stepmother but there is no proof for it, so let's assume that she died from natural cases).
In 1430 Grand Duke of Lithuania Vytautas died. Jogaila wanted his own brother Švitrigaila to replace him. Švitrigaila has no heir so Jogaila hoped that he'll leave Lithuanian throne to his sons. ITTL Jogaila has no sons but he could hope for GDL throne for his daughter or future grandkids so he could still support Švitrigaila (who would still have enough time to piss him off before Jadwiga's death). So would Jogaila turn his support to Žygimantas when his daughter dies and Švitrigaila's lack of heirs is no more an advantage in Jogaila's eyes? Žygimantas would propably still prevail over Švitrigaila anyway. And the winner of the struggle for Lithuanian throne is most likely candidate to get additional throne in Cracow.
 
In 1430 Grand Duke of Lithuania Vytautas died. Jogaila wanted his own brother Švitrigaila to replace him. Švitrigaila has no heir so Jogaila hoped that he'll leave Lithuanian throne to his sons. ITTL Jogaila has no sons but he could hope for GDL throne for his daughter or future grandkids so he could still support Švitrigaila (who would still have enough time to piss him off before Jadwiga's death). So would Jogaila turn his support to Žygimantas when his daughter dies and Švitrigaila's lack of heirs is no more an advantage in Jogaila's eyes? Žygimantas would propably still prevail over Švitrigaila anyway. And the winner of the struggle for Lithuanian throne is most likely candidate to get additional throne in Cracow.
Jogaila and Poland never supported Švitrigaila, for a simple reason - he was a stubborn opponent of the Polish-Lithuanian union and had been constantly staging revolts against Vytautas for a grand total of 40 years. And as we see in OTL, upon becoming the Grand Duke, he immediately broke all ties with Poland, cancelled the Union of Horodlo and thus caused a Polish-Lithuanian war.

Jogaila supported Žygimantas. And while he had heirs, it did not matter at all, because as gratitude for Polish support, Žygimantas simply declared that his successor will be a Jagiellon.
 
Jogaila and Poland never supported Švitrigaila, for a simple reason - he was a stubborn opponent of the Polish-Lithuanian union and had been constantly staging revolts against Vytautas for a grand total of 40 years. And as we see in OTL, upon becoming the Grand Duke, he immediately broke all ties with Poland, cancelled the Union of Horodlo and thus caused a Polish-Lithuanian war.

Jogaila supported Žygimantas. And while he had heirs, it did not matter at all, because as gratitude for Polish support, Žygimantas simply declared that his successor will be a Jagiellon.
So situation is clear-Žygimantas is the winner, at least in GDL. In Poland situation would be a bit complicated-Polish nobles want union to continue but Jogaila would propably not be able to secure succession for Žygimantas between 1431 and 1434. So there will be long negotiations like after Vladislav III's death. If Žygimantas is finally crowned I think he'll keep title of Highest Duke of Lithuania but his son Michael would get title of Grand Duke. So Žygimantas death in 1440 is butterflied away, perhaps Švitrigaila's supporters would murder his son instead?
 
So situation is clear-Žygimantas is the winner, at least in GDL. In Poland situation would be a bit complicated-Polish nobles want union to continue but Jogaila would propably not be able to secure succession for Žygimantas between 1431 and 1434. So there will be long negotiations like after Vladislav III's death. If Žygimantas is finally crowned I think he'll keep title of Highest Duke of Lithuania but his son Michael would get title of Grand Duke. So Žygimantas death in 1440 is butterflied away, perhaps Švitrigaila's supporters would murder his son instead?
As far as I know, Žygimantas lacked any ambitions for the throne of Poland (he lacked ambition in general, anyway), so any initiative to hand him the throne of Poland would have to come from the Polish nobility.

It is definitely possible that Mykolas or Žygimantas are assassinated, and perhaps even more than that. When Casimir IV was picked as the King of Poland, the Lithuanians only let him off once he basically signed away any real power over the Grand Duchy in the form of the Casimir Privileges - unless Žygimantas does something like that, the opposition against the restoration of the personal union is going to be fierce.
 
So Žygimantas could be assassinated earlier by Švitrigaila's fraction if he is going to accept Polish throne? What would happen then with Mykolas vs Švitrigaila quarrel?
Perhaps if Michael wins and then is proposed Polish Crown he's going to give Lithuanian magnates priviledges to avoid his father's fate?
 
Last edited:
Let's talk about another option-Jogaila's daughter survives and marry Frederick of Brandenburg. Žygimantas is Grand Duke and de facto ruler of Lithuania but he officially recognize Jadwiga as Highest Duchess and/or her husband as Highest Duke. In Poland Jadwiga was already accepted as heiress in 1413, she'll be 26 years old at the time of her father's death while Frederick will be 21. So with pair of adult monarchs there is no need for regency and bishop of Cracow Zbigniew Oleśnicki never achieves his OTL position. In 1440 Frederick's father dies-he considered his oldest son John incompetent and skipped him in succession leaving electorate to Frederick, ITTL he had to choose either John or his third son Albert Achilles. In 1439 King of Germany, Hungary and Bohemia Albert Habsburg dies-whom would Hungarians invite to the throne? Frederick unlike Vladislav of Varna is king iure uxoris, already married (so he can't promise to marry Albert's daughter). In 1440 (let's say this event is not changed) Žygimantas is assassinated-what happen in GDL? Frederick is foreigner, Jadwiga is a woman, if they have kids they are small children now, so who is going the throne of GDL? Maybe Mykolas promises to recognize Jadwiga's right as High Duchess and in turn recives Polish help against Švitrigaila and then rule like his father before him?
Another question-once both Mykolas and Švitrigaila are gone-which member of House of Gediminas is most likely to claim title of Grand Duke?
 
Last edited:
Another question-once both Mykolas and Švitrigaila are gone-which member of House of Gediminas is most likely to claim title of Grand Duke?
Well, there weren't many members of the House of Gediminas left to claim the throne, most were either too distant or had died out by then.

Off the top of my head, Aleksandras Olelka/Olelko Vladimirovich seems to have been the most interested in the throne, but he and his dynasty were depowered after Žygimantas seized his possessions upon taking power. Perhaps a new dynasty could arise if there was no successor to pick. The Čartoriskiai/Czartoryski, Manvydai, Belsky, Trubetskoy and all the millions of families who descended from Kaributas were all around and had blood of Gediminas.
 
Well, there weren't many members of the House of Gediminas left to claim the throne, most were either too distant or had died out by then.

Off the top of my head, Aleksandras Olelka/Olelko Vladimirovich seems to have been the most interested in the throne, but he and his dynasty were depowered after Žygimantas seized his possessions upon taking power. Perhaps a new dynasty could arise if there was no successor to pick. The Čartoriskiai/Czartoryski, Manvydai, Belsky, Trubetskoy and all the millions of families who descended from Kaributas were all around and had blood of Gediminas.
If Mykolas and/or Švitrigaila lives untill mid 15th century sons of Jadwiga and Frederick (if they have any) would be in their twenties/late teens then. So one of them may be called to the throne of GDL by Lithuanian magnates as grandson of Jogaila.
 
Without Vladislav III's Hungarian adventure Hunyadi likely get power in Hungary earlier.
Poland due to dinastic ties with Brandenburg get ally against Teutonic Order (Hohenzollerns have quarrels with Teutonic Knights about New March). Perhaps Brandenburg participate in alternate 13 Years War on Polish side?
 
Frederick's Polish marriage would spoil Brandenburg's relations with Sigismund of Luxembourg and Teutonic Order and would provide Poland with much better ally against TO than Lithuania. Without Oleśnicki's rise to power there is no pro-Luxembourg switch in Polish foreign policy. I wonder if Czechs would still invite Polish king to their throne (it would give Hohenzollerns another electoral vote) after Sigismund's death-he is German after all.

Year 1440 in Lithuania should be interesting in Chinese sense-Frederick, Mykolas and Švitrigaila claims throne of GDL. Who has best chance to win?
 
Top