No Italo-Turkish War in 1911-1912

CaliGuy

Banned
What if Italy's government would have decided that going to war with the Ottoman Empire in 1911 for Libya simply isn't worth it and thus the Italo-Turkish War of 1911-1912 would have been completely butterflied away?

What would have happened afterwards in this TL? Would the Balkan Wars have still occurred? Also, if World War I still approximately breaks out on schedule, what exactly happens to Libya during and after WWI in this TL?

Also, what effect would the lack of an Italo-Turkish War in 1911-1912 have on both Italian and Ottoman domestic politics?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
The Balkan countries would probably have less confidence than OTL because the Italo-Turkish War proved that the Ottoman Empire had severely weakened and it can be defeated. Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro COULD still form the Balkan League and fight the Ottomans, but it's much less likely and they'd have less chances at succeeding, because the Italians dealt heavy blows to the Ottomans in their quest for Libya. Italy would probably focus more on domestic pride and showcase more animosity towards Austria-Hungary for their possession of South Tyrol, Istria, and the Dalmatian Coast. Heck, World War I may even begin between Austria-Hungary and Italy. The Ottomans would possess more confidence and perhaps seek to annex the Balkan countries in order to expand it's empire and regain lost land. This would bring the Ottomans serious conflict with Austria-Hungary and Russia, yet another legitimate incentive for World War I to begin. As for Austria-Hungary and Serbia, the OTL events can still occur, but Serbia would certainly have less weight behind it. Several possibilities are present with the absence of the Italo-Turkish War.
 
Maybe Italy looking for other targets to gain colonial prestige and gets in conflict with other estalished powers . Iam not sure, what ressources and manpower Lybia could provide to the Ottoman Empire and how developed it was in general. What happens to Lybia would depend on the Ottoman allegiance, if they side with the Central Powers, than England and or France and Italy could easily invade Lybia. Maybe we see the Ottomans and the Italians even in the same camp with the rest of the Central Powers, which would be spectacular. If Ottoman is in the Allied Camp, the Central Powers could give Italy a Blanco check to gain Lybia for themself. Maybe than, the Entente wants to stop them and the Kaiser has to send troops to help the Italians out ( I don´t know how realistic it is to send troops to Africa through the Mediterranian during WW1 considering the British sea power). But even with Lybia, the Ottoman Empire remains relatively weak- for this reason, it was a target in the first place.

Edit: Artistic Critic made good points
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
The Balkan countries would probably have less confidence than OTL because the Italo-Turkish War proved that the Ottoman Empire had severely weakened and it can be defeated. Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro COULD still form the Balkan League and fight the Ottomans, but it's much less likely and they'd have less chances at succeeding, because the Italians dealt heavy blows to the Ottomans in their quest for Libya.

OK.

Italy would probably focus more on domestic pride and showcase more animosity towards Austria-Hungary for their possession of South Tyrol, Istria, and the Dalmatian Coast. Heck, World War I may even begin between Austria-Hungary and Italy.

Agreed.

The Ottomans would possess more confidence and perhaps seek to annex the Balkan countries in order to expand it's empire and regain lost land. This would bring the Ottomans serious conflict with Austria-Hungary and Russia, yet another legitimate incentive for World War I to begin.

Wouldn't it be very risky for the Ottoman Empire to try pursuing expansion in Europe at this point in time, though?

As for Austria-Hungary and Serbia, the OTL events can still occur, but Serbia would certainly have less weight behind it. Several possibilities are present with the absence of the Italo-Turkish War.

Agreed.

Also, though, if WWI still breaks out at approximately the same time as in our TL, who exactly would get Libya in the post-WWI peace talks in this TL?
 
The Balkan countries would probably have less confidence than OTL because the Italo-Turkish War proved that the Ottoman Empire had severely weakened and it can be defeated. Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro COULD still form the Balkan League and fight the Ottomans, but it's much less likely and they'd have less chances at succeeding, because the Italians dealt heavy blows to the Ottomans in their quest for Libya. Italy would probably focus more on domestic pride and showcase more animosity towards Austria-Hungary for their possession of South Tyrol, Istria, and the Dalmatian Coast. Heck, World War I may even begin between Austria-Hungary and Italy. The Ottomans would possess more confidence and perhaps seek to annex the Balkan countries in order to expand it's empire and regain lost land. This would bring the Ottomans serious conflict with Austria-Hungary and Russia, yet another legitimate incentive for World War I to begin. As for Austria-Hungary and Serbia, the OTL events can still occur, but Serbia would certainly have less weight behind it. Several possibilities are present with the absence of the Italo-Turkish War.

Maybe Ottomans are trying to regain Bosnia, than and the old Habsburg-Ottoman enemyship lives on ? Could see Italy further expanding on the Balkan and trying to grab Albania .
 
Italy can simply accept the Bosnia (or Tunisia) -like agreement proposed at the eve of the war, basically Italian de-facto control but de-jure possession by the Porte, Giolitti refused for various reason, among them to 'avenge' Adwa and to show that Italy was a great power after A-H annexation of Bosnia.

Also, what effect would the lack of an Italo-Turkish War in 1911-1912 have on both Italian and Ottoman domestic politics?

For Italy well a much quiet period of internal developement, the war was costly and had come when a period of economic stagnation started; without that waste the situation will be much more manageable.
Another factor will be the socialist not being burned by the support of the war and probably much less antagonist in case another war begun

Relations between Wien and Rome will be probably even a little better as the A-H empire basically acted as a de-facto ally of the Ottoman during the war
 
I very much doubt the Ottomans will be much into expansion in Europe, the lack of war probably b uys them some to retrench and maybe prevent the Balkans from exploding. They'll save some money, some prestige but mostly stability. A couple of years breathing room would make a world of difference.
 
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