No Italian colonization, Who gets Somalia and Eritrea

Say Italy doesn't colonize Somalia and Eritrea

Who else could get them

Would whatever power that gets Somalia and Eritrea be able to successfully annex Ethiopia
 
Say Italy doesn't colonize Somalia and Eritrea

Who else could get them

Would whatever power that gets Somalia and Eritrea be able to successfully annex Ethiopia
Honestly? Somalia probably goes to Britain, while Ethiopia just outright annexes Eritrea.
 
Britain would probably get the rest of Somalia and Eritrea - Somaliland was a logistics base for Aden, and the security of the colony (Dervish rebellion etc) would necessitate expansion into the region.

Eritrea is a more interesting case. Egypt had centuries-old interests in Eritrea but had slowly lost control to Ethiopia after wars in the 1870s. Italian firms also had commercial interests there and prior to unification sought protection under the French. The French certainly had an interest in expanding their Djibouti toehold on the Suez Canal route for the security of their own Asian empire. Ethiopia had an obvious interest in getting a port but it's not clear if it could actually compete with the Europeans given its weaker ability to enforce its authority over outlying regions.

So I see several outcomes for Eritrea:

1) Britain enforces Egypt's claim and annexes it to vehement French protest.
2) Britain makes a deal with France: Eritrea if France concedes Egypt and the Upper Nile.
3) Britain signs pact with Ethiopia, helping Ethiopia to take Eritrea as a means of stymying France. Ethiopia therefore plays the role Italy played in Eritrea OTL. Maybe a path to Ethiopia being a protectorate of UK?

Unlikely Britain will take Ethiopia (unless over some really unwise Ethiopian provocation vs South Sudan), or let France take it.
 
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Depending on how the situation in the Horn of Africa plays out, you could see Ethiopia annexing Eritrea after winning the Ethiopian-Egyptian War while Somalia either becomes British or French.
 
Other than a stepstone for taking Ethiopia/Abyssinia, it's pretty worthless desert. British Somaliland made kinda sense, being the opposite shore of Aden, but the rest...
 
I could see Britain making a play for it all and Ethiopia as a protectorate - Somalia is just north of Kenya, and would leave Britain essentially in charge of the entire East African coast minus Mozambique. The region has mineral resources, so if those are known, there is money to be made in the region.
 
I could see Britain making a play for it all and Ethiopia as a protectorate - Somalia is just north of Kenya, and would leave Britain essentially in charge of the entire East African coast minus Mozambique. The region has mineral resources, so if those are known, there is money to be made in the region.
Obviously Tanganyika isn't a thing anymore.
 
I would likely see Anglo-Egyptian Sudan,s wallowing most of IOTL Erythrea as it was already a focus for Egypt in the XIXth even if they were beaten. Less trough a direct control than a protectorate/dominance over local autonomies and polities eventually making the situation closer to British Somalia.

Until 1888, French Somalia (Djibouti) was more northern-centered so I could see a French presence in southern Erythrea leading to a bigger Djibouti equivalent.
Furthermore, without Italy, French previously existing claims on the rest of Somalia would be partly unchallenged, even if I could see several concessions made to Britain in Jubaland or Somaliland, but may advance further than Italians in Ogaden due to interests on mineral wealth of Somalia.

Roughly, possibly something like this.

@profxyz
You're right I wouldn't see either Britain or France managing to get a dominant position in Abyssinia, but I think a possible condominium would be possible, a mix of what existed in New Hebrides, Suez Canal and Morroco.
 

Lusitania

Donor
In terms of scramble for Africa. Who gets Somalia and Eritrea depends on who gets Libya. For it was about balance of power. Britain could not get Libya, Eritrea and Somalia that’s too much (even if Egypt is one who takes over Eritrea).

Does France or Britain get Libya? The answer to that will determine who gets rest. My idea - Britain get Somaliland and Easter Libya. France gets western Libya and Eritrea while Germany gets ready of Somalia.
 
In terms of scramble for Africa. Who gets Somalia and Eritrea depends on who gets Libya. For it was about balance of power. Britain could not get Libya, Eritrea and Somalia that’s too much (even if Egypt is one who takes over Eritrea).
Libya wasn't annex by Italy until 1911
 
Germany IOTL launched a few expeditions into Somalia, mostly as an effort to strengthen their colony of Wituland. However it's quite likely that Britain could pursue annexing "Puntland" as an extension of British Somaliland in order to keep control over the Gulf of Aden, a worry that the Sultan of Majerteen had.

Eritrea might stay Ethiopian, or maybe Russia could push for a fort there. The northwestern portion of Eritrea might also be attached to the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.

Libya is quite open though. It could stay Ottoman for a few years longer than it did IOTL, or considering how the butterfly flaps its wings, it could go to the French, the British, Egypt... Or maybe something "out there" like Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary, or Greece. Possibly even an independent state or two...?
 

Lusitania

Donor
Germany IOTL launched a few expeditions into Somalia, mostly as an effort to strengthen their colony of Wituland. However it's quite likely that Britain could pursue annexing "Puntland" as an extension of British Somaliland in order to keep control over the Gulf of Aden, a worry that the Sultan of Majerteen had.

Eritrea might stay Ethiopian, or maybe Russia could push for a fort there. The northwestern portion of Eritrea might also be attached to the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.

Libya is quite open though. It could stay Ottoman for a few years longer than it did IOTL, or considering how the butterfly flaps its wings, it could go to the French, the British, Egypt... Or maybe something "out there" like Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary, or Greece. Possibly even an independent state or two...?

If Ottoman Empire keeps it though will there be an Italian invasion still and more importantly Balkan Wars?
 
If Ottoman Empire keeps it though will there be an Italian invasion still and more importantly Balkan Wars?

I mean the premise here is that Italy never goes colonialist, so obviously there wouldn't be an Italian invasion even if history otherwise doesn't change until 1914 and the outbreak of WW1.

Also the Ottomans keeping Libya for three more years wouldn't really affect the Balkan Wars, like at all.

What is interesting is could avoiding the Italo-Turkish War save the Ottoman Empire/shake up the alliances of Europe in a way which allows the Ottomans to either be neutral or not in danger of a British invasion once WW1 starts, which is plausible and could allow Istanbul to maintain control over Libya possibly indefinitely.
 
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