No Israel

So lets say Israel doesn't exist for some reason. Either they settle somewhere else to don't gain enough political clout to form a nation? How does the Arab world develop without Israel as a unifying force? What stance do the Middle Eastern states take in the Cold War?







And yes, this does stem from an argument I read in Political Chat.
 
So lets say Israel doesn't exist for some reason. Either they settle somewhere else to don't gain enough political clout to form a nation? How does the Arab world develop without Israel as a unifying force? What stance do the Middle Eastern states take in the Cold War?

And yes, this does stem from an argument I read in Political Chat.

I have never seen this bandied about great question. lets say for the sake of convience the Holocaust doesn't happen but post ww2 decolonization of the ME still does. Economic factors seem to say that colonization was a passing fad anyway.

I would say it is fractured along Sunni and Shia (spelling?) lines with each faction gaining the support of either the USA or the USSR. Or the states fracture based on religion and secularism. I still think there is a division; its just to vital to each nation's national interest (USSR and USA) to let these nations fall into one bloc or the other. But post ww2 ME is not my strongest area.
 

Cook

Banned
I think you'll find that there was a thread of this very question only about a month ago.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Even beyond Sunni-Shia, a lot more Arab on Arab violence and wars, unfortunately. Lebanon + Black September (though different cause & particulars) + Iran-Iraq, on steroids.


Might very well be much more violence than OTL, without a stronger power like Israel keeping the powder dry, even if it is frustrating.
 
I have never seen this bandied about great question. lets say for the sake of convience the Holocaust doesn't happen but post ww2 decolonization of the ME still does. Economic factors seem to say that colonization was a passing fad anyway.

I would say it is fractured along Sunni and Shia (spelling?) lines with each faction gaining the support of either the USA or the USSR. Or the states fracture based on religion and secularism. I still think there is a division; its just to vital to each nation's national interest (USSR and USA) to let these nations fall into one bloc or the other. But post ww2 ME is not my strongest area.

I think a less drastic POD could do the job, maybe like pushing some sort of diplomatic solution more, or another nation offering a haven for the Jewish people(Vietnam? Australia?). But I agree that the Shia-Sunni split may lead to trouble in Iraq.

I think you'll find that there was a thread of this very question only about a month ago.

Oops! My search function has never really worked properly, could you provide a link?



Even beyond Sunni-Shia, a lot more Arab on Arab violence and wars, unfortunately. Lebanon + Black September (though different cause & particulars) + Iran-Iraq, on steroids.


Might very well be much more violence than OTL, without a stronger power like Israel keeping the powder dry, even if it is frustrating.

So many questions.
-Would the West support Lebanon against Syria? For how long?
-The Turkish have had disputes with Syria over the Hatay Province and water disputes. Without Israel, could this lead to war?
-Why would more Iran-Iraq wars break out? I always thought that the war was more of a power grab by Saddam Hussein than anything else.
-Wouldn't no Israel butterfly Black September?
 
I think a less drastic POD could do the job, maybe like pushing some sort of diplomatic solution more, or another nation offering a haven for the Jewish people(Vietnam? Australia?). But I agree that the Shia-Sunni split may lead to trouble in Iraq.

Well, no Holocaust certainly would do it, or you might possibly have something like the Uganda or Madagascar plans being implemented (though I would say the plausability of that it is rather low, if not ASB). As to not having a Holocaust, just replace Hitler with some other right-winger who is slightly less anti-Semetic, and thinks the Nuremberg Racial Laws (which will go away after *Nazi Germany looses the war) are enough.


-Would the West support Lebanon against Syria? For how long?
Lebanese internal politics will be very different ITTL. The presence of Palestinian refugees and the PLO inside Lebanon, and Israel on its southern border (both of which amplified Lebanon's sectarian problems in OTL) will be removed, so the Lebanese Civil War might not even happen, and if it does it will be quite different from OTL. But as to the original question, I would say most likely yes. In the event of a civil war, the National Pact (which was set up before the POD) will almost certainly produce a pro-western government opposed by Arab Nationalist (and to American minds pro-Soviet) rebels, so Cold War politics will dictate an intervention of some sort.

-The Turkish have had disputes with Syria over the Hatay Province and water disputes. Without Israel, could this lead to war?
Possible, but not all that likely. Syria is much less powerful than Turkey, and if they tried to invade Turkey to gain Hatay, they'd almost certainly loose.
-Why would more Iran-Iraq wars break out? I always thought that the war was more of a power grab by Saddam Hussein than anything else.
Well, I would say an anti-Shah revolution in Iran is still quite likely (his unpopularity had much more to do with his domestic policies than his support for Israel), so yes, its quite possible. In fact, I think the history between Iran and Iraq would likely mirror OTL to a large degree.
-Wouldn't no Israel butterfly Black September?
As their will be no PLO, yes.

To make a few more comments-Arab Nationlism was an essentially anti-colonialist ideal-Arab Nationalists resented Europeans for (in their view) promising independence to the Arabs in WWI and then carving their territory up and either directly colonizing it or establishing puppet monarchies. Thus, it will be a factor in Arab politics, Israel or no. Gamel Abdul Nasser will still rise, still nationalize the Suez Canal and be invaded by Britain and France, and probably be remembered in the Arab world as a very successful and positive figure without the disaster in 1967 to tarnish his record. In the Arab world, Israel is generally percieved as a European settler colony established by taking land from Arabs and giving it to Europeans (this perception-not blanket anti-Semetism-is behind much of the Arab resentment towards it). Its non-existence will likely take some of the edge off of Arab anti-Westernism, and will make the rise of Islamism much less likely (the Arab defeats against Israel largely discredited Arab nationalism, allowing Islamism to step into the vacuum). The Middle East will quite likely be much more peaceful place than OTL.
 
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What about a Monarchist/Nasserist split with the Monarchists (Jordan, Saudi, Oman, UAE, etc) in the Western camp and the Nasserists (Egypt (natch), Syria, a Yemen (possibly), et al) in the Soviet bloc?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
So many questions.
-Would the West support Lebanon against Syria? For how long?

The cynical part of me says..."Would the West care?"

-The Turkish have had disputes with Syria over the Hatay Province and water disputes. Without Israel, could this lead to war?

That's an interesting one. America likes to have a sugar baby in every region, and since the British already got Jordan then Uncle Sam might decide to start building up those airbases in Turkey even more than in OTL to make sure nothing untoward happens.


-Why would more Iran-Iraq wars break out? I always thought that the war was more of a power grab by Saddam Hussein than anything else.

The Iraqis and Iranians fought a brief conflict over the Shatt al-Arab waterway in the mid '70s, in 1975 or 1976, I think. There was always a sovereignty issue there about who controlled access to the waterway. Both sides wanted all of it and when a treaty was signed giving both some, it didn't make either side happy.

Even with no Israel you may have had a coup in Iran. You most certainly would've had American and British arms flowing into the country prior to the Shah's fall, because the political reasons for arming regime had nothing to do with Israel, they were aimed north towards the Soviets. That's why we sold them the F-14s.
 
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