No Islamic Revolution: who wins in '80?

What RogueBeaver said.

EDIT: Oops! What SlideAway said.:eek:

I would actually amend what I said before slightly. I said Carter would probably win a modest reelection over Reagan. In fact, a substantial - i.e. 10+ point - Carter win would be entirely possible. Every postwar presidential reelection up to then - 1956, 1964, 1972 - and, later, 1984 - were massive landslides. Pre-1990s, a far larger proportion of the electorate - about 25% - were up for grabs, and Carter didn't have the same weakness most post-68 Democrats had in the South.

Remember that absent Iran collapsing into revolution, the economy may well have continued to perform solidly. Carter's approvals were in the low-to-mid 50s in early 1979, and they may have continued to stay at that level. Throw in Reagan's perceived extremism and his many campaign trail gaffes, and something like a 54-44 (no Anderson) or 51-41-7 victory is entirely possible.
 
And Reagan didn't have his first cousin in the newsroom at a then nonexistent Fox News Channel to call the election for him.:rolleyes:

True (though his bit part was minor), plus data collection and communication was slower then as well.

I wonder though, could Billy Carter somehow play the Ellis role in TTL's '80 campaign (rather than plugging Billy Beer & the Libyan government)? Nahhh, to ASBish! :D
 
True (though his bit part was minor*), plus data collection and communication was slower then as well.

*-I can't disagree strongly enough. Cousin Bush made the call, Fox made the call for Bush first, every other news service played lemming once they announced, W got the presumption of victory, and it led to Gore's incredibly early concession to Bush, that gave Shrub the "moral high ground", that James A. Baker III made sure W never lost in the public's eye.

Fox News elected Shrub.
 
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I think that it would be closer, but assuming that the economy is still bad then Reagan wins. All Reagan has to do is keep hammering Carter on the misery index and Carter is toast.



I hate to point this out to Peelitebkearns, but Reagan v. Carter was 1980 not 1976.

I realise Reagan was the 1980 nominee, not 1976. I mentioned Reagan (along with Ford and Carter) because they all could have potentially won the 76 election, in Reagan's case he came close to winning the 76 nomination OTL.

My point was that whoever won in 1976 was almost bound to lose in 1980, for simelar reasons Carter lost OTL. This includes Ford, Reagan or any other potential candidate who could have ended up winning the 1976 election, if everything until that point plays out as it did OTL.
 
My point was that whoever won in 1976 was almost bound to lose in 1980, for simelar reasons Carter lost OTL. This includes Ford, Reagan or any other potential candidate who could have ended up winning the 1976 election, if everything until that point plays out as it did OTL.

Isn't the whole point of the OP that events don't play out as it did OTL...

I agree that without the oil shock, the recession in the US will be postponed, and with a strong economy Carter should really win.

The question is, what policies does he try to enact, and what does Congress look like?
 
*-I can't disagree strongly enough. Cousin Bush made the call, Fox made the call for Bush first, everyone other news service played lemming once they announced, W got the presumption of victory, and it led to Gore's incredibly early concession to Bush, that gave Shrub the "moral high ground", that James A. Baker III made sure W never lost in the public's eye.

Fox News elected Shrub.

Did Fox News make a mistake - yes
Did multiple national news networks get egg on their faces several times that night due to their miscalculations, incomplete information and competitive fervor - yes
How much, apart from everything else that transpired that election day, did the 2:30am Fox Network declaration set the narrative for what transpired over the ensuing days - that's open to discussion
Did Fox News elect G. W. Bush POTUS - no

Here's a relevant Time Magazine article on this subject: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,998547-2,00.html
 
Did Fox News make a mistake - yes(1)
Did multiple national news networks get egg on their faces several times that night due to their miscalculations, incomplete information and competitive fervor - yes
How much, apart from everything else that transpired that election day, did the 2:30am Fox Network declaration set the narrative for what transpired over the ensuing days - that's open to discussion(2)
Did Fox News elect G. W. Bush POTUS - no(3)

Here's a relevant Time Magazine article on this subject: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,998547-2,00.html

1) No. They did not. They were following the deliberate orders of Bush's first cousin and the SOP of Roger Ailes.

2) Not according to Fixed News. From the moment they declared for Bush, their mantra was "Bush Wins! Gore concedes! Wait, Gore retracts!? Gore Sore Loser! It's Ancient History! Its all over! Hooray for President Bush! Its Ancient History! Its all over! Boo on the Enemy of Democracy Gore! Its Ancient History! Its all over! Gore trying for rigged Recount! Its Ancient History! Its all over!" Did I mention that they said it was ancient history and it was all over?:rolleyes:

3) Uh, yes, actually. Its called presumption (and perception) of victory. Very important in politics. And Fixed News gave it to Shrub on a solid gold platter.:mad: Mind, CBS and Dan Rather declared for Gore very early on based on Florida. Considering Rather's history with the Bushes, I could see an argument the other way. IF: The rest of the media had done their lemming charge upon Rather's announcement, Gore's first cousin worked at CBS and made the call for Gore, and Teddy Kennedy was running CBS News.:p

Did you know that a recount done AFTER the inauguration of W, using the same strictest standards of recounting demanded by the Bushies and Baker's people, that Gore won by THREE votes?:eek:
 
As we will not likely come to a meeting of the minds nor will either of change the other's opinion on this matter, and, most importantly, as this thread is about 1980 not 2000 I am done discussing Bush v. Gore in this thread.
 
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