Reagan, but the networks won't be able to call it until 11pm EST (as opposed to 8:15pm EST in OTL)
What RogueBeaver said.
EDIT: Oops! What SlideAway said.![]()
And Reagan didn't have his first cousin in the newsroom at a then nonexistent Fox News Channel to call the election for him.![]()
True (though his bit part was minor*), plus data collection and communication was slower then as well.
I think that it would be closer, but assuming that the economy is still bad then Reagan wins. All Reagan has to do is keep hammering Carter on the misery index and Carter is toast.
I hate to point this out to Peelitebkearns, but Reagan v. Carter was 1980 not 1976.
My point was that whoever won in 1976 was almost bound to lose in 1980, for simelar reasons Carter lost OTL. This includes Ford, Reagan or any other potential candidate who could have ended up winning the 1976 election, if everything until that point plays out as it did OTL.
*-I can't disagree strongly enough. Cousin Bush made the call, Fox made the call for Bush first, everyone other news service played lemming once they announced, W got the presumption of victory, and it led to Gore's incredibly early concession to Bush, that gave Shrub the "moral high ground", that James A. Baker III made sure W never lost in the public's eye.
Fox News elected Shrub.
Did Fox News make a mistake - yes(1)
Did multiple national news networks get egg on their faces several times that night due to their miscalculations, incomplete information and competitive fervor - yes
How much, apart from everything else that transpired that election day, did the 2:30am Fox Network declaration set the narrative for what transpired over the ensuing days - that's open to discussion(2)
Did Fox News elect G. W. Bush POTUS - no(3)
Here's a relevant Time Magazine article on this subject: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,998547-2,00.html
As we will not likely come to a meeting of the minds nor will either of change the other's opinion on this matter, and, most importantly, as this thread is about 1980 not 2000 I am done discussing Bush v. Gore in this thread.