HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
Greetings everyone, this is a concept I've been kicking around for quite a long time and have yet to find any timelines that really cover an in-depth analysis of how not only Iran but the politics of the Middle East as a whole would be affected by the preservation of the Pahlavi Monarchy and the failure of Khomeini's revolution. While this is certainly up to discussion I thought I'd throw a few talking points out there as to how it could happen and the things it could affect.
1. Death of Khomeini, while the revolution was certainly not Khomeini alone and there's always the risk that his death would lead to his being used a martyr in a revolution, there's also the consideration that his death would deal a blow to the movement's morale, while it certainly wouldn't knock several years of discontent down like a house of cards, whatever chaos goes down following Khomeini's death among the revolutionary movement could give SAVAK the time it needed to catch the major leaders of the dissident movement.
2. US intervention, borderline ASB because of the Carter Administration's aversion to "putting boots on the ground" in other nations so to speak and the recent memory of the misadventure in Vietnam to the American public and the Pentagon, I wouldn't rank it as being an incredibly high probability of either being attempted or being successful at all. At least to me, the Shah would be so strongly perceived as a Western puppet at that point that the Iranian populace wouldn't need Khomeini's doctrine to let them know.
3. A more moderate revolution, this is one more peaceful alternative I can definitely see happening within the realm of realism where either Khomeini severely tones down the fiery revolutionary rhetoric or simply doesn't come to lead the movement at all. The basic idea would be that a moderate Islamic leader of some sort would consent to a power-sharing agreement with the Shah, restoring powers to the Majis and including some theocratic elements in his government, etc. Would probably have to come after a long, protracted conflict.
Possible Effects
1. Major Power Shift, the Middle East's conflict would see a very different outlook as Muslim (but Shia) Iran continues to pursue good relations with Israel and attracts the ire of the Arab Islamic world. We might see a staunch anti-Iran movement spearheaded by an opportunistic Sadaam Hussein. Whether the Iran-Iraq War would still happen is debatable, Hussein would still have a motivation at the personal level to attack Iran though the idea of war with a US-supplied nation would be a deterrent at best, so the extent to which Iran-Iraq relations would sway towards either war or peace is a debate in and of itself.
2. A more pro-Soviet Iraq. With the US having strong relations with three regional Mideast powers (Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia), the Soviet Union might have no choice but to make a shot at winning favor with staunchly anti-communist Ba'ath Iraq. Ultimately it comes down to a decision of whether or not it's profitable for Iraq's interests and in the case of an Iraq looking for a leg up in the Middle East, it would be beneficial to make a bid for the USSR's support.
1. Death of Khomeini, while the revolution was certainly not Khomeini alone and there's always the risk that his death would lead to his being used a martyr in a revolution, there's also the consideration that his death would deal a blow to the movement's morale, while it certainly wouldn't knock several years of discontent down like a house of cards, whatever chaos goes down following Khomeini's death among the revolutionary movement could give SAVAK the time it needed to catch the major leaders of the dissident movement.
2. US intervention, borderline ASB because of the Carter Administration's aversion to "putting boots on the ground" in other nations so to speak and the recent memory of the misadventure in Vietnam to the American public and the Pentagon, I wouldn't rank it as being an incredibly high probability of either being attempted or being successful at all. At least to me, the Shah would be so strongly perceived as a Western puppet at that point that the Iranian populace wouldn't need Khomeini's doctrine to let them know.
3. A more moderate revolution, this is one more peaceful alternative I can definitely see happening within the realm of realism where either Khomeini severely tones down the fiery revolutionary rhetoric or simply doesn't come to lead the movement at all. The basic idea would be that a moderate Islamic leader of some sort would consent to a power-sharing agreement with the Shah, restoring powers to the Majis and including some theocratic elements in his government, etc. Would probably have to come after a long, protracted conflict.
Possible Effects
1. Major Power Shift, the Middle East's conflict would see a very different outlook as Muslim (but Shia) Iran continues to pursue good relations with Israel and attracts the ire of the Arab Islamic world. We might see a staunch anti-Iran movement spearheaded by an opportunistic Sadaam Hussein. Whether the Iran-Iraq War would still happen is debatable, Hussein would still have a motivation at the personal level to attack Iran though the idea of war with a US-supplied nation would be a deterrent at best, so the extent to which Iran-Iraq relations would sway towards either war or peace is a debate in and of itself.
2. A more pro-Soviet Iraq. With the US having strong relations with three regional Mideast powers (Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia), the Soviet Union might have no choice but to make a shot at winning favor with staunchly anti-communist Ba'ath Iraq. Ultimately it comes down to a decision of whether or not it's profitable for Iraq's interests and in the case of an Iraq looking for a leg up in the Middle East, it would be beneficial to make a bid for the USSR's support.