No Iran revolution but a Saudi Arabia revolution instead

A what if: in 1975 due some reason in Saudi Arabia a revolution broke out where the royal family was toppled and the Islamic Republic of Arabia was proclaimed. As a responds the shah of Iran not wanting to remove himself begins making reforms which prevents the 1979 revolution from taking place. How will the future look like with the Islamic Republic of Arabia (OTL version of Iran) and the Empire of Iran (OTL version of Saudi Arabia) facing each other.
 
Excellent question.
On face value, the Saudi Royal family is less stable than the Shah of Iran.

OTL the House of Saudi has ruled the Arabian Penninsula for a mere hundred years while the Shah has ruled Persia for thousands of years.
In recent years, Al Queda and other dissident groups have staged numerous raids within Saudi Arabia in recent years. Meanwhile, Trucial States, United Arab Emirates and Yemen have enjoyed extensive military support from Britain, USA, etc.
 
If this revolution is in 1975, note that Gerald Ford is still president.

My take is given the geography of Saudi Arabia in comparison to Iran, I definitely could see a stronger response from the U.S. towards this, from Ford probably Carter as well. The oil crisis is still going on and the president simply cannot let the Saudi's oil fall to radicals (or Saddam, who would have a easily time defeating them compared to Iran), so he'll react sharply. His reaction would definitely decide the 1976 election. The earlier Ford defeats the Saudi radicals and begins pumping out oil for the American market again the better.

Anyway it makes a very interesting PoD. Good question.
 
Excellent question.
On face value, the Saudi Royal family is less stable than the Shah of Iran.

OTL the House of Saudi has ruled the Arabian Penninsula for a mere hundred years while the Shah has ruled Persia for thousands of years.
In recent years, Al Queda and other dissident groups have staged numerous raids within Saudi Arabia in recent years. Meanwhile, Trucial States, United Arab Emirates and Yemen have enjoyed extensive military support from Britain, USA, etc.

The House of Pahlavi actually postdates the House of Saud and never had as much legitimacy. I'm no saudi fan but Reza Shah Pahlavi was a parvenu as royals go.
 
Wait, you mean US boots on the ground In Saudi Arabia simple to keep a royal family in place that most likely has used force to crush the revolution and is now not beloved by its people.
 
The House of Pahlavi actually postdates the House of Saud and never had as much legitimacy. I'm no saudi fan but Reza Shah Pahlavi was a parvenu as royals go.

And when compared to the Saudis, the Pahlavis were amateur plotters who were not up to the task of ruling Iran.
Then again the Saudi monarchy is not infallible either.
One possible POD to achieve this might be a situation where King Faisal and his groomed successors die at some horrible accident during the Yom Kippur War, leaving some hapless 3rd-rate Saudi prince to meet a crisis with disputed succession and internal strife. This might just do the trick in the right circumstances, but as others have pointed out, the geography in Saudi Arabia deems Western intervention much more likely.
 
A what if: in 1975 due some reason in Saudi Arabia a revolution broke out where the royal family was toppled and the Islamic Republic of Arabia was proclaimed. As a responds the shah of Iran not wanting to remove himself begins making reforms which prevents the 1979 revolution from taking place. How will the future look like with the Islamic Republic of Arabia (OTL version of Iran) and the Empire of Iran (OTL version of Saudi Arabia) facing each other.

In 1965 there was a coup attempt by Nasserist pan Arabian secular officiers with the goal to overthrow the monarchy and instead create an Arabian Republic .
 
Possibly they decide that having the Iranians move into the oil rich Shia populated coast, the UAE and Qatar moving into areas the Saudis threatened them into, then letting Jordan or Iraq try setting themselves up as the next dynasty.
 
Something similar to the OTL 1979 Grand Mosque seizure could have succeeded, bringing to a Mahdist regime. However, I don't think it is feasible: The bigger oil reserves and smaller population make SA able to better control its population with enough monetary incentives to avoid creating a too big disenfranchised class that could turn towards political radicalism.
 
SA has one big thing that everyone involved will have to take into consideration: it's home to the two most holy Islamic sites. Anyone thinking to attack them will have to be VERY careful....
 

celt

Banned
An Iran in this timeline would undoubtedly be the preeminent military and economic power in the Middle East, with possibly nuclear weapons, especially after the Indian and Pakistani coming out in the late 1990s. What would be interesting though would be the Pakistani-Saudi relationship in this timeline and whether or not this revolutionary Saudi Arabia concentrates on countering secular Arab forces and the Soviet Union. The Afghanistan War probably will not happen in this war with a strong Iran still there so it might be more likely there will be more push back to American influence in the Gulf. Still whoever is in charge in Riyadh needs to sell oil to the West to make the country tick over, otherwise you would see a counter-revolution happen quite sharply. In my eyes a revolutionary Saudi Arabia would concentrate on spreading its dogma around the Arab/Muslim world , a bit like our timeline, before contemplating confronting the West.
 
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