No Invasion of Sicily during WW2

My impression of WW2 is that if you have a battleship in harbour, it actually takes multiple attacks or something fairly substantial such as a magazine hit to take it out permanently; otherwise it's a case of patch it up, refloat it, and send it to a repair yard (or carry out whatever maintenance you can in the current Norwegian inlet, in the case of Tirpitz).
Granted once a battleship is in a repair yard it has at least temporarily ceased to have any immediate threat value as a fleet-in-being.
 
That is correct for penetrating the armor for a serious kill. Often the airmen were hung up on precision bombing with the largest bombs possible with the intent of getting inside the armor & getting a hard kill. The alternate is is to smother the exterior with medium size bombs & strip away the operating bit exposed there. The AA battery, the catapults, the range finders, the funnels, & all the other bits lightly armored or unprotected. This happened to a few capitol ships & they were out of action just as effectively as if a heavy bomb had got inside the main armor.
 
Get a few AA mounts damaged/destroyed and the ship has to go back to the yard.

Though with newer guided weapons and ships with less armor, it can be easier to gain those hits.
 
A example of small ordnance disabling a capitol ship would be the Hiei off Guadualcanal. Japanese survivors indicate the ship was hit by approx 50 207mm (8") & 85 128mm (5") cannon projectiles. The main armor was not penetrated, but the steering was disabled, the electrical system failed, fires were started at multiple locations. For nearly a hour the Hiei has so many fires it served as a reference point for the accounts of the survivors trying to described the night battle. The Hiei was certainly repairable, but after sunrise dive bombers from Guadalcanal hit the stationary ship with several 1000lb bombs, which did inflict catastrophic damage. Had the Hiei been underway direct hits may have been avoided, and certainly a lot fewer made.
 
And in despite of hits from small ordnance during WW2 campaigns in the Pacific (or being struck by kamikaze aeroplanes in the vicinity of Okinawa) a number of US battleships on active duty not only did not retreat/withdraw, but were able to carry on with whatever it was that they were doing at that time. E.G. USS Tennessee, and USS Maryland.
There are WW2 examples of capital ships being disabled by small ordnance and there are counter-examples of capital ships carrying on in despite of hits (and damage) from small ordnance - some of it received in very hostile operational environments.

This is getting some way away from the mooted topic of the thread; at this point can we agree that in the event of an Italian non-surrender, the Regia Marina would probably provide a distraction and call for a diversion of (edit: some naval and aircraft) resources - although for just how long is a matter of dispute?
 
Ya sure.

To redigress to the previously digressed from... Perhaps a major question here is how long Mussolini & the residual fanatics struggle on before things get just too bad in Italy. Absent the additional blow of losing Sicilly does the Fascist Grand Council take action in September anyway? Or in November, or January 44? Alternately do the Communists have any chance of wiggling out from suppresion and organizing anything significant? I think the two key factors here are the actual state of food supplies in September 1943, and coal. Once either falls below a critical level the social order starts breaking down, and panic emerges.
 
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