No Invasion of Russia; What Triggers the Sixth Coalition War?

i've finally started making more headway for British history in my ASB ATL, and have gotten on the time of the War of the Sixth Coalition. the War of 1812 still takes place ITTL, and may last a little longer or end earlier depending on what happens in Europe

a major difference here is that Napoleon doesn't invade Russia, so the War of the Sixth Coalition doesn't begin in the same way as IOTL. the War of 1812 begins in the same way, but how can war break out in Europe again? (because i feel its inevitable, considering the rapid succession of Coalition Wars before then)

ideally, this or a subsequent Coalition War will result in Napoleon's exile, though with all those extra troops from not invading Russia, how could this be achieved? through covert means, perhaps? or a pincer maneuver, a replay of Cannae that Napoleon himself is caught in?
 
I think that war between France and Russia was inevitable by that point. Russia was flouting the Continental System in a big way and Alexander seems to have fallen out of Napoleon's spell. The Russians were also pretty annoyed about the very existence of the Grand Duchy of Warsaw. The only way you can avoid it would be to have Tsar Paul remain alive for longer - and in addition to being hated he was also unstable, if not mad.
 
By 1812, only two powers are still able to wage war against France:

*Great Britain
*Russia

Prussia, however ready, lacks the capability to act unless on the verge of "liberation".
Metternich's Austria has arranged itself with Napoleon quite a lot 1810-12. They waited quite a long time even in 1813 before they threw their weight around.

Other states, even Spain or Sweden, are not important enough to make a 6th Coalition war because they ally with Britain.

The UK already wages war so in Spain. My impression is that they found the perfect battlefield there, were the circumstances of Spanish support acted as a force-multiplier to them.
Given their rule of the seas and their global standing, they could go on there infinitely and always hurt Napoleon more than themselves.

Russia might attack if renouncing the Continental Blockade doesn't provoke Napoleon. But...with which motivation? Hatred of Napoleon will not be sufficient. That leaves:
-as mentioned: desire to annex Warsaw
-some very cunning British (money?!) move to get Alexander into war
-Napoleon, restless as ever, decides to meddle with the Ottomans in some way, either attacking them or forging an alliance

Such a 6th coalition war might still be winnable for Napoleon, depending on the theatres chosen and other circumstances. It might still lead up to a march on Moscow. Would that work out different if Napoleon had annihilated the Russian Army somewhere in Poland beforehands? Would it still spell doom?
Might we see Prussia and/or Austria on the French side for the whole length of a Coalition war?
If France loses in the end, and Austria is caught rooting for the French son-in-law for too long, might the peace perhaps end up very damaging to them....?
If Prussia betrays Napoleon in the wrong moment, might we see an end to the Hohenzollern-realm?

That is a lot of stuff for a timeline.
 
Russia, realising war is inevitable makes a pre-emptive strike attacking the Grand Duchy of Warsaw in much the same way that Austria invaded Bavaria in 1809. Napoleon had a plan to defeat such an invasion outlined in Campaigns of Napoleon (David Chandler)
 
Russia, realising war is inevitable makes a pre-emptive strike attacking the Grand Duchy of Warsaw in much the same way that Austria invaded Bavaria in 1809. Napoleon had a plan to defeat such an invasion outlined in Campaigns of Napoleon (David Chandler)

I agree this is quite likely. Russia may seek an early victory in Poland to push Prussia and Austria to move against France as well. Though a French victory, especially a convincing one, could kill the Coalition before it begins.
 
-Napoleon, restless as ever, decides to meddle with the Ottomans in some way, either attacking them or forging an alliance

Such a 6th coalition war might still be winnable for Napoleon, depending on the theatres chosen and other circumstances.
perhaps Napoleon could try conquering the Balkans? for the purposes of the TL, this would draw in the Ottomans, and by extension their Balkan subjects, as well as Britain and their remaining allies. it'd also be close enough to Russia that, with a little pressure, they could join in, too
That is a lot of stuff for a timeline.
lots of stuff for a timeline is what i do ;)
 
perhaps Napoleon could try conquering the Balkans? for the purposes of the TL, this would draw in the Ottomans, and by extension their Balkan subjects, as well as Britain and their remaining allies. it'd also be close enough to Russia that, with a little pressure, they could join in, toolots of stuff for a timeline is what i do ;)

The Balkans might Not Be Worth it. Bonaparte would directly go for Constantinoples, to Close the straits (perhaps After enforcing the Blockade in kopenhagen ,too).

A Balkan Theatre, with everyone involved? An Epic mess!
 
The Balkans might Not Be Worth it. Bonaparte would directly go for Constantinoples, to Close the straits (perhaps After enforcing the Blockade in kopenhagen ,too).

A Balkan Theatre, with everyone involved? An Epic mess!

that's the idea ;) an invasion of Russia, minus Russia :p though you raise a good point about his objectives; i had written it as him traveling down the Adriatic coast and conquering as he went, but Constantinople is a much more viable target than Nowhere In Particular
 
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