No Indochina War

MrHola

Banned
Is there any way we can avoid the First Indochina War the French fought in the late 1940s, thus avoiding the Vietnam War in the '60s/'70s? Maybe if Leclerc survived?
 
Is there any way we can avoid the First Indochina War the French fought in the late 1940s, thus avoiding the Vietnam War in the '60s/'70s? Maybe if Leclerc survived?

My understanding is that a lot of the colonial uprisings, the Indochina one included, had to do with native perceptions of Europe as weak following their decline in economic strength and colonial military supremacy as their assets were deployed in Europe during WWII. Therefore, it would take some pretty serious butterflies to pull this one off.

Maybe if France was lost entirely and the remnant of the French government moved to, say, Algeria. This would force them to concentrate not on holding mainland France, but their colonies, thereby retaining significant interest in Indochina. It's a longshot, but maybe it would work.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Having Leclerc survive would help--he was pragmatic about the inevitability of Vietnamese independence--but you need to get rid of Admiral d'Argenlieu. He did everything he could to derail the Ho-Sainteny agreement for a negotiated independence process, and seized the pretext of a minor incident in November 1946 to order his fleet to shell Haiphong, killing thousands of civilians and prompting the Vietminh to choose armed struggle.

Or you could change Chinese history in 1912 ;)
 

MrHola

Banned
D'Argenlieu was severely wounded when he was fired upon in his small and unarmed craft on September 23, 1940, during Battle of Dakar. Let's say the wound kills him, then what?
 

Hendryk

Banned
And let's also suppose that Leclerc isn't killed.
If d'Argenlieu dies one way or the other (the battle of Dakar is a good possibility), the shelling of Haiphong in 1946 won't take place, and the butterflies will ensure that Leclerc doesn't take that fateful plane the following year.
 

MrHola

Banned
What will France do about Algeria and the Suez Crisis if no Indochina War? I assume that Ho Chi Minh will lead Vietnam until his death in 1969. Who will succeed him? I can see Vietnam becoming the Yugoslavia of south-east Asia.
 
You could go the route with Leclerc, or you could have the US begin supporting Ho Chi Minh during the war. They support there demands for independence and snub DeGaulle at the same time.
 
or you could have the US begin supporting Ho Chi Minh during the war. They support there demands for independence and snub DeGaulle at the same time.
I read somewhere that most of the French force sent to Veitman was transported on US Ships, and supplied with US eqipment.

Now the OSS was very inpressed by Ho Chi Minh and his Veits during the war.

So Have Donavan and his OSS remain instead of the CIA, and have Donavan ally with the Anti Colonialists in the state dept.
Together they convince Truman that Ho is a Nationalist, like Sahatro in Indonesia.
The US refuses France the use of US transport, and recognizes Ho Chi Minh.
 
In such a situation, Vietnam would be solid ally for the US in Southeast Asia. I imagine that communist china would still have tried to invade and set up a puppet state, but can you imagine the Viet Minh armed by the US? I wonder how long the Chinese stay before giving up.

And Vietnam would probably come out with no were near as many people killed with no civil war or war with the US. And they would be in the same pool of "Dragon Economies" on the Asian Pacific Rim.
 
Top