No Imjin War

Possibly, the Imjin War was very expensive for the Ming and contributed to their financial woes. The damage to Korea economically and in terms of physical damage should also be taken into account. A stronger and wealthier Joseon will effect the regional dynamics, and have effects on what the Manchus are up to. They might concentrate on raiding Korea rather than trying to crack a tougher Ming nut, which might see a later Ming intervention to offer succor to the Joseon against a growing Manchu threat. This could have rather similar effects to the Imjin war in terms of Chinese finance, and could see the same sort of internal problems arise to topple the dynasty. That would probably be a native Chinese dynasty, though.

One thing to take into account is what the Japanese are going in the meantime. If Hideyoshi's power collapses, and another generation of warfare keeps Japan busy, then when someone does manage to unify the country they're going to have the same issues with large numbers of men in arms with nothing to do. That might encourage a bid for Asian supremacy by Japan a generation later. A generation of warfare plus European trade might also mean the Japanese are even better armed. A weakened and rebellion-prone Ming, an expansionist Japan, a slightly less damaged Korea, weakened Manchus and possible Mongol wildcards might lead to some interesting times in the early-to-mid 17th century.
 
I was always under the impression that the Imjin War simply sped up the demise of the Ming and that would fall eventually. Whether it be to themselves or some of the Norhern horse types.

The fate of Korea does have me thinking. It is logical they would be attcaked by the Manchurians as they wou;d be richer and considerably weaker than the Ming.

As for Japan, I'm sure without the Imjin War they could find other ways to keep all those soldiers busy. Japan was in need of a major rebuild afteralll.

Either way, this has got me thinking about more stuff than before.
 
THe Imjin war gave Tokugawa Ieyasu the chance to build up his power (he was left in charge of Japan while Hideyoshi was in Korea). With no Imjin war I can see the Toyotomi dynasty carrying on. Whether they become less isolationist depends on the ruler and how they react to certain situations.
 
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