No Holocaust: fate of European Jewry?

[Southpaw]

If, for some reason, the Holocaust hadn't happened, what would have become of Europe's large Jewish community? Let's assume a post-WW1 WI, with WW2 either not happening or, if it does, Jews not suffering proportionally more deaths than the other ethnic groups in their countries.

Europe in the 1930s was of course not a nice place to be a Jew even discounting Germany, with the the majority of countries with large Jewish minorities being ruled by dictatorships who were almost all anti-Semitic to some extent, if only to take advantage of a convenient scapegoat, in addition to widespread social anti-Semitism. Even without OTL's horrors, I could see continued emigration to America from countries where this was possible (though now I remember that U.S. immigration restrictions probably made this impossible), but that still leaves quite a few Jews in Eastern Europe.

If a specifically Jewish state is never founded in the Holy Land, I can see America being an even greater center of Jewish life than in OTL.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Without WW2 or specific persecutions they would probably stay in place and most would continue to assimilate. Most European Jews just wanted to be good citizens and many even placed their loyalty to country above their Jewish identity, they just weren't given a chance to be citizens or members of the community by anti-semitic regimes.

There were in fact Jewish groups in Germany that supported Hitler and assimilation above all else:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_German_National_Jews

The Association of German National Jews (Verband nationaldeutscher Juden) was a Jewish organisation during the Weimar Republic and the early years of Nazi Germany that eventually came out in support Hitler.
It was founded in 1921 by Max Naumann who was chairman until 1926 and again from 1933 to 1935 when the association was dissolved.[1] Politically, the association was close to the national conservative and monarchist German National People's Party which, however, refused affiliation with the association.[2]

The goal of the Association was the total assimilation of Jews into the German Volksgemenschaft, self eradication of Jewish identity, and the expulsion from Germany of the Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe.[3] Max Nauman was especially opposed to Zionists and Eastern European Jews, the former he considered a threat to Jewish integration and to be carriers of a "racist" ideology serving British imperial purposes, while he saw the later as racially and spiritually inferior.[3]

A similar contemporary Jewish group in Germany included the German Vanguard (Der deutsche Vortrupp), the German-Jewish followers of Hitler led by Hans Joachim Schoeps,[1] also referred to as "Nazi Jews".

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Joachim_Schoeps

 

[Southpaw]

Without WW2 or specific persecutions they would probably stay in place and most would continue to assimilate. Most European Jews just wanted to be good citizens and many even placed their loyalty to country above their Jewish identity, they just weren't given a chance to be citizens or members of the community by anti-semitic regimes.

There were in fact Jewish groups in Germany that supported Hitler and assimilation above all else:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_German_National_Jews



https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Joachim_Schoeps

Fascinating. But if the post-Great War years go roughly as OTL, Jews will still be persecuted, just not to the same extent, rather than being allowed to peacefully assimilate.

 

[LHB]

Without WW2 or specific persecutions they would probably stay in place and most would continue to assimilate. Most European Jews just wanted to be good citizens and many even placed their loyalty to country above their Jewish identity, they just weren't given a chance to be citizens or members of the community by anti-semitic regimes.

There were in fact Jewish groups in Germany that supported Hitler and assimilation above all else:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_German_National_Jews



https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Joachim_Schoeps

Well there goes OTL being all ASB again.

So what is going to be the POD that stops the Holocaust? If we're talking no Nazi takeover (certainly doable, there was a lot of luck and stupid decisions involved in that affair) then that's one less overtly anti-Semitic regime running amok in Europe. Life for Italian Jews would also improve as it was due to Nazi pressure that Mussolini and Fascist Italy started really cranking up the anti-Jewish sentiment.

Overall I think the supposition that America would increasingly become the center of world Jewish culture is a pretty spot-on one. Emigrating to the USSR in this period isn't easy while America by the 30s has a well-established reputation as a safe harbor for just about anyone who can make the trip (meaning you won't be suffering from pogroms) and a well-established Jewish community.

Another butterfly here is the Polish Jewish community. Before the war Poland had one of the largest Jewish populations in Europe, the vast majority of whom were wiped out by the Nazis with many of the survivors fleeing the country. No Holocaust means that rather large, active community will remain around with all the butterflies and cultural impact that entails.

 

[Blackfox5]

Most Jewish populations would remain where they were. The US restricted Jewish immigrants heavily in this era, and even if European Jews were thinking of emigrating, most couldn't. Most Jews were embedded into their national communities although that was less so in some of the post-Versailles/Trianon states.

There is still a chance for a Jewish state even without the Holocaust. It would be more difficult because there isn't the sympathy for the Jews or people seeing the need for a safe haven Jews can go to. However, the British are still technically committed to the Balfour Declaration, and it is becoming more and more apparent that Palestine can't accommodate both Jewish and Arab nationalist aspirations in a bi-national state.

Even without the decline of power caused by WWII, the British will be looking for an exit from the Mandate at some point even if it occurs a decade or two later. The Israel that exists may be much smaller, and may have restrictions on sovereignty, but there could be a state some of the European Jews could emigrate too. However, without the devastation of the war, I think most European Jews would not want to move to Israel.

Depending on the exact situation, you can create several plausible scenarios.

 

[Southpaw]

Well there goes OTL being all ASB again.

So what is going to be the POD that stops the Holocaust? If we're talking no Nazi takeover (certainly doable, there was a lot of luck and stupid decisions involved in that affair) then that's one less overtly anti-Semitic regime running amok in Europe. Life for Italian Jews would also improve as it was due to Nazi pressure that Mussolini and Fascist Italy started really cranking up the anti-Jewish sentiment.

Overall I think the supposition that America would increasingly become the center of world Jewish culture is a pretty spot-on one. Emigrating to the USSR in this period isn't easy while America by the 30s has a well-established reputation as a safe harbor for just about anyone who can make the trip (meaning you won't be suffering from pogroms) and a well-established Jewish community.

Another butterfly here is the Polish Jewish community. Before the war Poland had one of the largest Jewish populations in Europe, the vast majority of whom were wiped out by the Nazis with many of the survivors fleeing the country. No Holocaust means that rather large, active community will remain around with all the butterflies and cultural impact that entails.

I was thinking of Germany falling under a fairly 'standard' military-dominated government with little time for anti-Semitism except for the occasional propaganda campaign. Poland and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe would still be an unpleasant place to be a Jew, though.

America's status as the center of world Jewish culture would benefit by the non-existence or reduced prominence of Israel as The Jewish Home, but there would still be millions of Jews in Europe.

 

[GeographyDude]

Without WW2 or specific persecutions they would probably stay in place and most would continue to assimilate. Most European Jews just wanted to be good citizens and many even placed their loyalty to country above their Jewish identity, they just weren't given a chance to be citizens or members of the community by anti-semitic regimes.

Wouldn't the baseline be similar to civil rights for African-Americans and greater acceptance and civil rights for persons in the LGBTQ community?

I mean, that seems to be the way it works in most industrialized democracies, for any group of persons who are treated as less than regular and first-class citizens.

 

[Tallil2long]

There is still a chance for a Jewish state even without the Holocaust. It would be more difficult because there isn't the sympathy for the Jews or people seeing the need for a safe haven Jews can go to. However, the British are still technically committed to the Balfour Declaration, and it is becoming more and more apparent that Palestine can't accommodate both Jewish and Arab nationalist aspirations in a bi-national state.
.

From the Balfour Declaration:

"His Majesty's government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine..."

Escape clause 1: "best endeavors" is not a promise of favorable outcome. The British can always claim that they tried, but circumstances prevented success.

Escape clause 2: "nothing shall be done which may prejudice..." If the British claim that it is not possible to create a Jewish national home without prejudicing the rights of other groups, then that's the end of it.


It was a routine part of British diplomacy to never absolutely promise anything that they might want to go back on later. Ask the Indians after WW1, when they thought they had been promised rapid progress towards Dominion status.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Another butterfly here is the Polish Jewish community. Before the war Poland had one of the largest Jewish populations in Europe, the vast majority of whom were wiped out by the Nazis with many of the survivors fleeing the country. No Holocaust means that rather large, active community will remain around with all the butterflies and cultural impact that entails.

Well, the Polish were supporting a Fascist movement of Zionists to fight the British in Palestine and then get out; the Polish government was a military dictatorship that was anti-semitic and supported pogroms against their Jewish citizens, so perhaps they succeed in their plan to get the British to abandon Palestine and then 'persuade' their Jewish community to leave.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(group)#Evolution_and_tactics_of_the_organization

Many Lehi combatants received professional training. Some attended the state military academy in Civitavecchia, in Fascist Italy.[37] Others received military training from instructors of the Polish Armed Forces in 1938–1939. This training was conducted in Trochenbrod (Zofiówka) in Wołyń Voivodeship, Podębin near Łódź, and the forests around Andrychów. They were taught how to use explosives. One of them reported later:

Poles treated terrorism as a science. We have mastered mathematical principles of demolishing constructions made of concrete, iron, wood, bricks and dirt.[37]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(group)#Evolution_and_tactics_of_the_organization

Stern spent the rest of the 1930s traveling back and forth to Eastern Europe to organize revolutionary cells in Poland and promote immigration of Jews to Palestine in defiance of British restrictions (this was therefore known as “illegal immigration”).
Stern developed a plan to train 40,000 young Jews to sail for Palestine and take over the country from the British colonial authorities. He succeeded in enlisting the Polish government in this effort. The Poles began training Irgun members and arms were set aside, but then Germany invaded Poland and began the Second World War. This ended the training, and immigration routes were cut off.[8] Stern was in Palestine at the time and was arrested the same night the war began. He was incarcerated together with the entire High Command of the Irgun in the Jerusalem Central Prison and Sarafand Detention Camp.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Most Jewish populations would remain where they were. The US restricted Jewish immigrants heavily in this era, and even if European Jews were thinking of emigrating, most couldn't. Most Jews were embedded into their national communities although that was less so in some of the post-Versailles/Trianon states.

There is still a chance for a Jewish state even without the Holocaust. It would be more difficult because there isn't the sympathy for the Jews or people seeing the need for a safe haven Jews can go to. However, the British are still technically committed to the Balfour Declaration, and it is becoming more and more apparent that Palestine can't accommodate both Jewish and Arab nationalist aspirations in a bi-national state.

Even without the decline of power caused by WWII, the British will be looking for an exit from the Mandate at some point even if it occurs a decade or two later. The Israel that exists may be much smaller, and may have restrictions on sovereignty, but there could be a state some of the European Jews could emigrate too. However, without the devastation of the war, I think most European Jews would not want to move to Israel.

Depending on the exact situation, you can create several plausible scenarios.

The Balfour Declaration was not legally binding and revoked by 1939:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Paper_of_1939

The White Paper of 1939 was a policy paper issued by the British government under Neville Chamberlain in which, among several key provisions, the idea of partitioning Palestine was abandoned. (It was also known as the MacDonald White Paper after Malcolm MacDonald, the British Colonial Secretary who presided over its creation).

The paper also provided (as alternative to partition) for creating an independent Palestine to be governed by Palestinian Arabs and Jews in proportion to their numbers in the population by 1939 (section I). Further: a limit of 75,000 Jewish immigrants was set for the five-year period 1940-1944 (consisting of a regular yearly quota of 10,000 and a flexible supplementary quota of 25,000); after 1944 the further immigration of Jews to Palestine would depend on permission of the Arab majority (section II); and restrictions were placed on the rights of Jews to buy land from Arabs (section III).

Plus if the Nazis are in power they do have an agreement to facilitate Jewish emigration to Palestine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haavara_Agreement

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Wouldn't the baseline be similar to civil rights for African-Americans and greater acceptance and civil rights for persons in the LGBTQ community?

I mean, that seems to be the way it works in most industrialized democracies, for any group of persons who are treated as less than regular and first-class citizens.

Until the Nazis got to power the Jews were full citizens and integrated into society, with any discrimination being interpersonally, not anything like Jim Crow. Full Civil Rights already existing since the mid/late 1800s. The Nazis and Nuremberg Laws (among several other laws previously) set back Jewish rights to Jim Crow levels and beyond. Without the Nazis then Jews in Germany already were integrated without any issues and in fact had one of the highest assimilation rates in the world. Just leaving them alone would probably see the Jewish community nearly fully assimilated in 4-5 generations, leaving little trace of Jewish identity in Germany (or France, Holland, Belgium, or Britain for that matter). Its was the Holocaust and anti-semitism that actually reinforced and recreated Jewish identities in Europe West of Poland.

 

[Zaius]

Without WW2 or specific persecutions they would probably stay in place and most would continue to assimilate. Most European Jews just wanted to be good citizens and many even placed their loyalty to country above their Jewish identity, they just weren't given a chance to be citizens or members of the community by anti-semitic regimes.

A one-sided view, ignoring the Jews' own very strong indifference and unwillingness to integrate in many areas.

 

[Southpaw]

I was envisioning some sort of general European war still happening (not necessarily a world one, though), but as I think about I actually believe avoiding WW2 would be more interesting, as absent the devastation of Europe and with a different *Israel (some sort of Arab-Jewish duopoly is probably going to have to restrict Jewish immigration to keep ethnic tensions down) or a non-existent one altogether emigrating to the Levant would seem less attractive.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

A one-sided view, ignoring the Jews' own very strong indifference and unwillingness to integrate in many areas.

Sure, its a broad generalization. In the places though where they didn't they were largely barred from doing so, mainly in Poland and Russia. In most of Western and Central Europe they integrated into society willingly, though many retained their unique Jewish identity; in places like Germany though assimilation was increasing before the Nazis took power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_assimilation
http://www.yivoencyclopedia.org/article.aspx/Assimilation
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/judaica/ejud_0002_0002_0_01522.html

 

[dehantp]

What's life without flimsy?

So what is going to be the POD that stops the Holocaust? If we're talking no Nazi takeover (certainly doable, there was a lot of luck and stupid decisions involved in that affair) then that's one less overtly anti-Semitic regime running amok in Europe.

Another option would be: Hitler decides on a different scapegoat earlier in his life? Let's face it: What was "in" and "out" in Hitler's world view always seemed to me as "a tad arbitrary" all in all to put it mildly. He was after all a conspiracy theorist, wasn't he? Was he? Or was he just a guy who knew how to sell conspiracy theory well? Who knows?

Either way: You can still have him go for the at that era popular Social Darwinism / racism in his "teachings" and have him pander this pyramid of races. With (of course) the Germans on top and from there going down to whatever classifications he likes to dream up dow to the "Slavs" and whatever. Let him also sell his idea of Lebensraum and that it of course has to come at the expense of the subraces in the East - not the good (but deluded) brother races like the British.

And he of course will still need to have his big main boogey man. Just: Let him settle on "The Bolshevik" instead. A more social / ideological spin in his prejudice than a racial one. Or rather: pseudo-racial. I mean: Since when are Jews a race please? That's about as convincing as claiming Christians being a race. Or Scientologists. Admittedly: Jews were a super-convenient scapegoat those days. And Hitler tapped heavy into that. If out of convenience if nothing else. But: "The Bolshevik" as the main boogey man also has its perks. It is a much more nebulous term, a "thought crime" so to say to use an Orwellian term. And as such, it can be much easier applied to any opponent or rival. A bit like "reactionary" could be applied to any rival of Mao during the Cultural Revolution.

What kind of POD it would need for Hitler to come to the slightly different conclusion of "Nah ... the Jews are okay. Stupid bunch, like the Catholics, but at least not as annoying like those Witness Jehova (gawd, these guys are a pest) but whatever. ... It is them damn Bolsheviks who are to blame for everything. And they are like a cancer ... blablabla [/rant]" I do not know. But I assume it would not need much given how whimsical Hitler and conspiracy theorists in general are on such things. I seem to remember his anti-semitism was fostered when Hitler, down on his luck during his early years, was lodging in a not-all-that affluent area of Vienna and regularly observed the antics of some Jewish pimp? Well: Then let him as a POD instead lodge in some other area of town where he is more exposed to the antics of some other hapless minority or (as I suggested above) Socialists / Communists. Jews pass under his radar and instead someone else later features in "Mein Kampf" as the main villain.

Interesting thought: A timeline in which Jews are not prosecuted in the Third Reich, fight in WWII as ordinary soldiers just like in WWI, join the NSDAP and SS like others did, get prosecuted if too left-wing, gay or religious like others did ... and in turn also provide their own share of Nazi criminals to the whole tragedy. Or maybe even more than that out of the urge to blend in because they are aware elsewhere in Europe, the locals are much harder on Jews? Jews maybe even flocking to Germany for that reason? Or collaborating more in Eastern Europe with the advancing Germans and the Germans with them vice versa? "Well, he's a Pole, can't be helped. But hey, at least he is a Jew. Those guys can't be all bad, given how much the other slavs hate them"? I doubt Einstein would have worked for the Nazis and that he still would have emmigrated to the US. But you could end up with creepy stuff like this:

"Anne Frank: The Diary of a Hitlermädchen"

 

[ScrewySqrl]

I was thinking of Germany falling under a fairly 'standard' military-dominated government with little time for anti-Semitism except for the occasional propaganda campaign. Poland and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe would still be an unpleasant place to be a Jew, though.

America's status as the center of world Jewish culture would benefit by the non-existence or reduced prominence of Israel as The Jewish Home, but there would still be millions of Jews in Europe.

Another option would be: Hitler decides on a different scapegoat earlier in his life? Let's face it: What was "in" and "out" in Hitler's world view always seemed to me as "a tad arbitrary" all in all to put it mildly. He was after all a conspiracy theorist, wasn't he? Was he? Or was he just a guy who knew how to sell conspiracy theory well? Who knows?

Either way: You can still have him go for the at that era popular Social Darwinism / racism in his "teachings" and have him pander this pyramid of races. With (of course) the Germans on top and from there going down to whatever classifications he likes to dream up dow to the "Slavs" and whatever. Let him also sell his idea of Lebensraum and that it of course has to come at the expense of the subraces in the East - not the good (but deluded) brother races like the British.

And he of course will still need to have his big main boogey man. Just: Let him settle on "The Bolshevik" instead. A more social / ideological spin in his prejudice than a racial one. Or rather: pseudo-racial. I mean: Since when are Jews a race please? That's about as convincing as claiming Christians being a race. Or Scientologists. Admittedly: Jews were a super-convenient scapegoat those days. And Hitler tapped heavy into that. If out of convenience if nothing else. But: "The Bolshevik" as the main boogey man also has its perks. It is a much more nebulous term, a "thought crime" so to say to use an Orwellian term. And as such, it can be much easier applied to any opponent or rival. A bit like "reactionary" could be applied to any rival of Mao during the Cultural Revolution.

What kind of POD it would need for Hitler to come to the slightly different conclusion of "Nah ... the Jews are okay. Stupid bunch, like the Catholics, but at least not as annoying like those Witness Jehova (gawd, these guys are a pest) but whatever. ... It is them damn Bolsheviks who are to blame for everything. And they are like a cancer ... blablabla [/rant]" I do not know. But I assume it would not need much given how whimsical Hitler and conspiracy theorists in general are on such things. I seem to remember his anti-semitism was fostered when Hitler, down on his luck during his early years, was lodging in a not-all-that affluent area of Vienna and regularly observed the antics of some Jewish pimp? Well: Then let him as a POD instead lodge in some other area of town where he is more exposed to the antics of some other hapless minority or (as I suggested above) Socialists / Communists. Jews pass under his radar and instead someone else later features in "Mein Kampf" as the main villain.

Interesting thought: A timeline in which Jews are not prosecuted in the Third Reich, fight in WWII as ordinary soldiers just like in WWI, join the NSDAP and SS like others did, get prosecuted if too left-wing, gay or religious like others did ... and in turn also provide their own share of Nazi criminals to the whole tragedy. Or maybe even more than that out of the urge to blend in because they are aware elsewhere in Europe, the locals are much harder on Jews? Jews maybe even flocking to Germany for that reason? Or collaborating more in Eastern Europe with the advancing Germans and the Germans with them vice versa? "Well, he's a Pole, can't be helped. But hey, at least he is a Jew. Those guys can't be all bad, given how much the other slavs hate them"? I doubt Einstein would have worked for the Nazis and that he still would have emmigrated to the US. But you could end up with creepy stuff like this:

"Anne Frank: The Diary of a Hitlermädchen"

actually, There was a long, long strain of anti-semitism in German nationalism going back at least to the formation of the Confederation of the Rhine. There were, by the 1930s, anti-semitic statements in the platform of every single German political party except the SDP. Jews are the go-to other to hate of choice in Germany for over 100 years by the 1930s.

 

[Faeelin]

A one-sided view, ignoring the Jews' own very strong indifference and unwillingness to integrate in many areas.

::Blinks::

Every chance Jews had to assimilate they did so.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

::Blinks::

Every chance Jews had to assimilate they did so.

Not in every case, as many chose to maintain their Jewish identity over assimilation, but by the 20th century the majority of European Jews would rather assimilate than stand out if given the choice. Of course what assimilation meant was different to every group, as in some cases it meant being whatever nationality and remaining religiously Jewish, or in the case of Germany and Western Europe in large part intermarrying and abandoning the Jewish faith and even in many cases culture.

 

[Southpaw]

actually, There was a long, long strain of anti-semitism in German nationalism going back at least to the formation of the Confederation of the Rhine. There were, by the 1930s, anti-semitic statements in the platform of every single German political party except the SDP. Jews are the go-to other to hate of choice in Germany for over 100 years by the 1930s.

But, despite that, Jews did not have it too bad in the Weimar Republic, did they?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

But, despite that, Jews did not have it too bad in the Weimar Republic, did they?

Legally speaking no, but as far right extremism got worse during and after WW1 socially Jews were getting targeted for violence much more than pre-WW1. A lot of extremists in Germany were deeply enraged by the Spartakist Revolt and what they felt was the betrayal of the nation that cost them WW1 both in terms of that and the liberal politicians at Versailles signing that treaty, as many happened to be Jewish. Plus there were specific issues around the Bavarian Soviet Republic and various unfounded conspiracy theories about Jewish collusion with the Allies (which were to deflect blame for the generals).
http://firstworldwar.com/features/bloodhounds.htm
http://firstworldwar.com/features/munich_intro.htm

After 1919 the far right established death squads to carry out assassinations for various 'crimes' they wanted to punish and Jews were significant targets of these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_von_Schleicher#Black_Reichswehr
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehmic_court#Modern_use_of_the_term

Within the politically heated turmoil of the early German Weimar Republic after WWI, the media frequently used the term Fememord to refer to right-wing political homicides, e.g. the murder of Jewish politicians such as Kurt Eisner (1919), Matthias Erzberger (1921), or Walther Rathenau (1922) by right-wing groups such as Organisation Consul. In 1926, the 27th Reichstag commission officially differed the contemporarily common Fememorde from political assassination in such that assassination was by definition exerted upon open political opponents, whereas a Fememord was a form of lethal vengeance committed upon former or current members of an organization that they had become a traitor of. This definition is also found in the common pseudo-archaic, alliterating right-wing phrase, "Verräter verfallen der Feme!" ("Traitors shall be ostracized!", i. e. killed), as it was often quoted throughout the 1920s in mass media reports regarding violent acts of vengeance among the German Right.[9][10][11]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Consul