No Hitler: A Polish Civil War?

Hi all,

Reading about Intewar Polish politics, I was wondering about the possibility of a Civil war during a world without Hitler. It seems to me that by the end of the 1930s, Poland was facing a fair amount of tension; the Ukrainians had been sufficiently radicalized, and the most active Ukrainian group, the OUN, had frankly adopted terrorist tactics and envisioned creating a Ukrainian Piedmont in Galicia (Said organization, of course, was supported by the Germans and Czechs. Lots of love in Eastern Europe). The country was sharply divided politically, with the Socialists and other opposition groups launching a series of general strikes across the country throughout the decade.

So, I'm wondering about the feasibility of a civil war along the lines of the Spanish Civil War. Any thoughts?
 
I doubt it as any civil war opens the door to soviet and german invasion.
Exactly. Germany being regarded as dangerous was not limited to the time when Hitler was in power. The same applies to Russia without Stalin.

As for the OUN I could see them becoming a full-blown terrorist organization, but in the context of the whole of interwar Poland their support base was too low to warrant a succesful rebellion or civil war.

As for the sharp political division that is somewhat true, still as of the 30s I don't see any faction attempting to claim power by force. Also note that in 1926 and 1918-19, when there were more suitable condition for a civil war it still didnit happen.
 
Exactly. Germany being regarded as dangerous was not limited to the time when Hitler was in power. The same applies to Russia without Stalin.

Agree completely.

As for the OUN I could see them becoming a full-blown terrorist organization, but in the context of the whole of interwar Poland their support base was too low to warrant a succesful rebellion or civil war.

Sure. I'm envisioning them as analagous to the Basques or Catalans in Spain. Sorry if I was unclear.

As for the sharp political division that is somewhat true, still as of the 30s I don't see any faction attempting to claim power by force. Also note that in 1926 and 1918-19, when there were more suitable condition for a civil war it still didnit happen.

I suppose I'm envisioning something analagous to the Civil War. The Sanacja is overtaken by a reformist president, or brought down by sweeping victories in local elections. This leads to an unstable new Constitution, and a leftist candidate wins the presidency. This in turn, triggers a militarist coup (something Poland has experience with, thanks to Pilsudski) but it goes off half cocked...
 
If ethnic tensions were exacerbated between Poles, Polish jews, and Polish Ukrainians, maybe it could happen. Poland wasn't a particularly democratic nation, and the first reaction would probably be to clamp down on autonomist movements.
 
I suppose I'm envisioning something analagous to the Civil War. The Sanacja is overtaken by a reformist president, or brought down by sweeping victories in local elections. This leads to an unstable new Constitution, and a leftist candidate wins the presidency. This in turn, triggers a militarist coup (something Poland has experience with, thanks to Pilsudski) but it goes off half cocked...

I think your analogy fails because Poland wasn't really that similar to Spain.
Spain teritorial integrity wasn't in danger, nor did the Spaniards just regained their independence after 100 years of foreign rules. This difference made Polish political classed more reserved about excalating the political conflict into a civil war. This was already quite evident during the 1926 coup, where General Sikorski (future Polish Prime Minister-in-Exile) who commanded the trops in South-Eastern Poland refused to support the government out of fear of Soviet and/or Ukrainian action, and then the Government capitulated despite calls to continue fight from Poznan
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I think Prem is right, the Ukrainian need to be sure that the Russians doesn't invade before they rebel, or the have to be treated worse than the Ukrainians in USSR (quite unlikely).
 
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