NO HINDENBURG (Prittwitz din´t panic before Tannenberg 1914)

After Russian victory in battle of Gumbinnen. German 8th army commander Prittwitz panicked, He on 20 aug informed Moltke that he must retreat as far as the Vistula, leaving East Prussia altogether,

Latter Prittwitz got his panic in control and with his staff planned for battle of tanneberg but Molkte replaced him with Hinderburg on 23 aug, Hindenburg just executed Prittwitz staff plan for Tannenberg, So POD is Prittwitz don´t panic after battle of Gumbinnen and call Moltke

what are butterfly effect on Great war with that POD

1, no Hindenburg command in east

2, no transfer of two corps to east
two corps came form Bulow 2th army and Hausen 3th army
Hausen 3th was close to beat Foch 9th army in battle of marne
can battle of marne end in bloody draw with 2 extra corps ?

3, Moltke don't get replaced with falkenhayn in September 1914 because battle of Marne
 
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Tyr Anazasi

Banned
Some quick remarks on this:

1. If Prittwitz doesn't panic and relies on Hoffmann we have his name as victor of Tannenberg. The Russians get routed as well.

2. The two corps could have closed the 30 km gap and stop the French 18th and 3rd corps on September 7th/8th so that the German front remains intact. Furthermore the French are not able to send another division to help the Brits and thus the BEF will not advance.

Because of that the Entente forces will not be able to push the Germans back. However, the Germans will not be able to crush the French. The distrust between French and Brits will grow because of the help not coming in time. Likely the front will be hardened here.

From here on the butterflies are very active. However, given the war continues as it did, in 1918 the German Operation Michael would likely be successful in capturing Paris in time and thus ending ww1.
 
In this scenario Tannenburg is fought pretty much as OTL I assume. However Prittiz' panic did add 5 divisions to the 8th Army for the Battle of Mansurian Lakes, which was a major success. What's more the 9th Army was formed partly from the now expended 8th Army as well as corps from the west. So the deeds of the 9th Army in 1914 would be reduced because the units that formed it wouldn't be available.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Some quick remarks on this:

1. If Prittwitz doesn't panic and relies on Hoffmann we have his name as victor of Tannenberg. The Russians get routed as well.

2. The two corps could have closed the 30 km gap and stop the French 18th and 3rd corps on September 7th/8th so that the German front remains intact. Furthermore the French are not able to send another division to help the Brits and thus the BEF will not advance.

Because of that the Entente forces will not be able to push the Germans back. However, the Germans will not be able to crush the French. The distrust between French and Brits will grow because of the help not coming in time. Likely the front will be hardened here.

From here on the butterflies are very active. ...
Would it have been possible from the point of available forces (on both sides atm), that Germany 'wins' the following 'Race to the sea' aka : establishes a front along the Somme up to the channel coast ? I.e.: coast - Abbeville - Amiens - Continy - Chantilly -Meaux - Epernay - Chalons - Verdun (hold by France) ?
 
Would it have been possible from the point of available forces (on both sides atm), that Germany 'wins' the following 'Race to the sea' aka : establishes a front along the Somme up to the channel coast ? I.e.: coast - Abbeville - Amiens - Continy - Chantilly -Meaux - Epernay - Chalons - Verdun (hold by France) ?

The German 1st army would be trying to push the 6th back into Paris, with more time this TL, they lightly held Amiens OTL and would continue this TL, the German are holding Reims as well, and would focus on encircling verdun for a bit.

I think the French solidly held Abbevile so likely the British will try to hold coastal cities like Calais and Bougoulne as fortresses backed by naval fire, its too important not to (even if the Germans hold the meat of the interior of the pas des calais region.

Big question is those two German corps brought east did do stuff post Tannenberg. A Russian strategic victory in the Carpathians or Silesia might compensate for German gains here.
 

Deleted member 1487

Its hard to say what the two extra corps at the Marne would mean, it still probably means the Germans pull back, but probably not nearly as far, perhaps stopping on the Marne itself, rather than moving all the way back to the Aisne. If that happens then Verdun is probably lost in 1914-15 and along with it some French divisions, a bunch of fortress artillery that was critical to the French in 1915, and a bunch of shells and other stores in the fort, plus the huge morale hit that its loss would mean. It also probably means the Race to the Sea is a German victory, with very bad results in the long term for the Entente. In the East 1st Masurian Lakes pretty much cannot happen, nor the Germans move and push to the Vistula in Autumn. That actually is probably beneficial to the Central Powers as the A-Hs won't get worn down on the attack in October-November mud and have to pillage the stores of Przemysl, which led to its early surrender in January 1915. Instead the Austrians can sit back and recover from the disaster of the Summer while the Russians have the fun of trying to supply forces forward in Galicia in the mud without a rail connection.

There are of course obvious benefits to not having Hindenburg and Ludendorff around messing with OHL, while Moltke is virtually guaranteed to get replaced by Falkenhayn due to Moltke's nervous breakdown and his generally weak heart (he died of it in 1916 IOTL):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmuth_von_Moltke_the_Younger#Later_life
He was too fragile to be in command and was going in 1914 no matter what for health reasons. Even if the Marne wasn't as bad for the Germans as it was IOTL it was the end of the offensive and with it the end of Moltke, who was already in despair, much like Ludendorff in 1918.

So in the long run likely its a much better result for Germany overall provided that the two extra corps not sent East results in the Germans not pulling back as far as IOTL after the Marne.
 

trajen777

Banned
ok i think that :

1. Tannenberg happens
2. M Lakes happens but with less success
3. No unsuccessful attack into central Poland
4. The extra corps not moved east will / might be the balance in the b of Marne, i disagree that if the Germans fight an inconclusive b here that this is the new battle line, the Germans would retreat to the defensive line that they did in real time,
5. I think more likely as they win, are unable to surround Paris, but take more ground in the race to the sea.
6. IN the East things go the same however you do not end up with the political turmoil of the East vs West factionalism
7. Falkenhayn takes over
8. Germany in better situation in West - Same results in East -
9. Less likely USW and USA most likely out
10 . Negotiated settlement in the West with BL active in the East
11. Peace treaty might be AL up for plebiscite and a German fleet based upon some % of Brit fleet
 
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