No Gulf War

What if the US said “the Iraqui-Kuwati Dispute is a local affair that is not of our concern” and let Iraq annex Kuwait all willy nilly?
 
What if the US said “the Iraqui-Kuwati Dispute is a local affair that is not of our concern” and let Iraq annex Kuwait all willy nilly?
The US had a written military alliance with Kuwait. So, basically, once Iraq invaded our ally, the US had only two logical courses of action: 1) convince the Iraqis to leave peacefully or 2) force the Iraqi's out by military means. The US actually tried number 1, in a variety of ways, but Saddam refused to back down, hence the US went to war with them. I would argue that a more plausible Point of Divergence would be for the US not to support Iraq during its long war with Iran immediately previous to its invasion of Kuwait. Absent US assistance, Iran would almost certainly have defeated Iraq badly, and Iraq would not be in any position to invade Kuwait in 1991.
 
The US had a written military alliance with Kuwait. So, basically, once Iraq invaded our ally, the US had only two logical courses of action: 1) convince the Iraqis to leave peacefully or 2) force the Iraqi's out by military means. The US actually tried number 1, in a variety of ways, but Saddam refused to back down, hence the US went to war with them. I would argue that a more plausible Point of Divergence would be for the US not to support Iraq during its long war with Iran immediately previous to its invasion of Kuwait. Absent US assistance, Iran would almost certainly have defeated Iraq badly, and Iraq would not be in any position to invade Kuwait in 1991.

Only half of the US population were in favor of war, if the number was at 25% in favor of war (which is in the realm of possibility) then their would be no war. Congers would not be able to issue Bush the authorization needed to deploy troops to Saudi Arabia.
 
Only half of the US population were in favor of war, if the number was at 25% in favor of war (which is in the realm of possibility) then their would be no war. Congers would not be able to issue Bush the authorization needed to deploy troops to Saudi Arabia.

Yes John Kerry and Joe Biden among others voted against it warning it would be another Vietnam.

The vote OTL was a near thing due to Vietnam syndrome across the public and political class.
 
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Politically, Bush’s vulnerabilities are more apparent earlier, making his re election chances look bleak earlier than 1992, so I think all the big name Democrats who sat the race out OTL throw their hat in the race, so some other Democrat gets elected President in 1992.
 
I remember it well from uni. War was VERY strange to us, and very dramatic. All we had in our lives before that was the Falklands when it was obvious that Argentina invaded one of OUR OWN overseas territories. Kuwait/Iraq was the first time we had seen the UN flex its muscles. That first night of bombing was... I don't know the word. On the one hand we couldn't really believe it, on the other it was astonishing.
 
As for 'no reaction' from the US, it would set a dangerous precedent in signalling that in the post-cold-war world you could just get away with annexing your neighbor just because you have the bigger army... At least in the eyes of the US. A lot of smaller European countries would be very nervously eying the new unified twice-as-big Germany now. And as a result the post Soviet world would look a lot different, possibly with a morally reformed Russia as the main player.

As for 'all possible pressure, but no war', it would depend on how the sanctions the US with all other major countries imposed on Iraq would work out in the long run. If Saddam responds by pretty much imposing martial law on his own country and cracking down on resistant Kurds and other minorities, we might well see the world gearing up to force him from power by military means as soon as they see an opportunity, just not in February of 1991.
 
If there is no GWI, the US wouldn't have deployed en masse to Saudi and then remained forever after--no Southern Watch No Fly Zone patrols, no constant presence in the country hosting the holy sites of Islam and possibly OBL doesn't have a significant stated reason/grievance for forming Al Queda and all that follows. No Gulf War could butterfly away 9/11. No GWI means Dick Cheney, and possibly Colin Powell do not become major figures--they still hold their prominent roles but a non war victorious SecDef and 4 star under a one term President may not resurface later as movers and shakers for W. No GWI means no opportunity to validate the Air-Centric doctrine employed and that could impact future weapons procurement/development/reliance in areas of stealth, precision weapons which could impact later campaigns in the Balkans.
 
I remember it well from uni. War was VERY strange to us, and very dramatic. All we had in our lives before that was the Falklands when it was obvious that Argentina invaded one of OUR OWN overseas territories. Kuwait/Iraq was the first time we had seen the UN flex its muscles. That first night of bombing was... I don't know the word. On the one hand we couldn't really believe it, on the other it was astonishing.

The Russians thought the US and Allies would get bogged down and lose stacks of aircraft. The first night scared them silly, they had no idea what NATO forces were capable of in the air and those F117 and Cruise missile strikes absolutely freaked them out. NATO had been planning to do just that to the WARSAW PACT on D1 of WW3, the Russians knew but never believed they could pull it off.
 
To support GWI, the CINCSAC took large numbers of tankers and bombers off strategic alert to support the deployment (the Wall had come down, Soviets going thru Perestroika etc, he felt he could manage the risk). after the war not many of those assets went back on alert and shortly thereafter the alert mission basically went away. Probably would have happened anyway but the timing to stand down US strat nuke forces may have been extended which could have impacts. Shortly after that standown the process for reorganizing the USAF started--while a lower level of impact (but decidedly more personal to me) that reorg may not have happened or in the same form. Particularly since the USAF Chief of Staff (Merrill McPeak) who directed the reorg only became CoS because his predecessor (Mike Dugan) was fired by Cheney at the start of Desert Shield for "divulging" the US war plan to strike massively early. No GW, no firing, no McPeak
 
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