Austria doubled its size in the Great Turkish War while France did not gain anything significant in the Nine Years War. Assuming both Wars are avoided and Charles II of Spain still dies around 1700. How does the Spanish War of Succession develop?
Austria doubled its size in the Great Turkish War while France did not gain anything significant in the Nine Years War. Assuming both Wars are avoided and Charles II of Spain still dies around 1700. How does the Spanish War of Succession develop?
my understanding is that the war started with a French invasion of a German electorate as part of the Reunion Policy, NOT a direct attack on Austria. Louis expected another capitulation from other powers, a massive miscalculation, when the rest of Europe said enough is enough.Depends on which of them you want to butterfly away. The Nine Years' War was started by France -- triggered by Louis XIV's desire to attack Austria while the Habsburgs were occupied with a war against the Turks, and also as a response to Britain falling under the control of a hostile monarch.y
A lot of stuff could happen, depending on if your PoD is James II's regime surviving, Koprulu Pasha capturing Vienna and ending the Great Turkish War there then, Louis XIV not revoking the Edict of Nantes (which sparked a lot of animosity between and Europe's protestant countries), any combination of each, whatever have you.
Depends on which of them you want to butterfly away. The Nine Years' War was started by France -- triggered by Louis XIV's desire to attack Austria while the Habsburgs were occupied with a war against the Turks, and also as a response to Britain falling under the control of a hostile monarch.
A lot of stuff could happen, depending on if your PoD is James II's regime surviving, Koprulu Pasha capturing Vienna and ending the Great Turkish War there then, Louis XIV not revoking the Edict of Nantes (which sparked a lot of animosity between him and Europe's protestant countries), any combination of each, whatever have you.
Just two aspects (I’m not even trying to cover everything):
France. Obviously, French finances and economy are in a much better shape and his armies do not suffer significant losses prior to the WoSS. Which means that by 1700 France may be capable of providing all of its infantry with the flintlocks and socket bayonets. The relevant question is if the Reunions are still happening (without triggering a war) giving France a better defensive position with enough time to construct all fortresses Vauban wanted. OTOH, it is an open question if, with a benefit of a hindsight, the whole idea of building these numerous fortresses along the border was a good one: their garrisons and artillery had been coming at the expense of the field armies and perhaps some of the money could be spent on the navy.
Empire/Ottomans. In an absense of the Great Ottoman War and 9YW Austrian finances probably still not very good (it seems that no matter what the Hapsburgs more often then not managed to be out of money). Absence of these wars also means that Austria is out of army (again, it seems that in OTL only experience of the War of the Austrian Succession finally made it clear that a strong army is a necessity). What is at least equally important as a strategic factor is that Prince Eugene does not have a chance to advance his military career to the OTL level. To a significant degree in OTL the Hapsburg army was remaining a fighting force due to his prestige: the troops were not regularly paid and supply system was grossly inadequate. Hungary is not under Hapsburg control but, OTOH, there is no need to deal with Racozi Uprising. However, if the Ottomans chose to attack during the WoSS instead of the OTL schedule, raising an army to fight them off could be a difficult task and the OTL campaigns that resulted in conquest (liberation?) of Hungary look as a luxury the Hapsburg can ill afford.
my understanding is that the war started with a French invasion of a German electorate as part of the Reunion Policy, NOT a direct attack on Austria. Louis expected another capitulation from other powers, a massive miscalculation, when the rest of Europe said enough is enough.
Although the Glorious Revolution probably would have happened any way, as it was being planned before France's invasion, technically the GR started after France's invasion. One wonders what Europe's reaction would have been if the GR started and France hadn't invaded (and touching off the 9YW). France undoubtedly would have backed, to some extent, James. Would Austria and the German powers cheered on William, thus giving France solid proof that everyone stood arrayed against France?
No 9YW definitely puts France on much better footing for the WOSS. a lot of butterflies may ensue as folks who died may live, or careers may take an alternate path (Prince Leopold, architect of the efficient Prussian army, had some of his first action in 9YW, for example).
Assuming Prince Eugene's career is not developing, France seems in a much better position to enforce their demands. So... a Spanish War of Succession with the Ottomans aiding France just against the Austrians is optional? No deposition of Mehmed IV whi could be succeeded by his son Mustafa rather than his ill brothers, no waste of manpower or resources, no execution of Kara Mustafa. Any chance the English/British join in a war against the Ottomans anyway?