No Governator

Without Arnold might Tom McClintock win? Looking at the results he got just over 13 percent with Arnold in the race and taking 48 percent himself. the Democratic candidate Bustamante does not seem too popular, having lost his race for Insurance Commissioner in 2006. Even if we assume many voters stay home, might it not be plausible for McClintock to eak out a win? I think he'd have a tough time getting reelected in 2006, being more conservative then Arnold and facing a tough year for the GOP nationally, but I'm not sure who would succeed him, or what their chances of reelection would be in 2010.
 
Yet at the same time, California is Ultramarine Blue (Or should that be Blood Red), everything that's occurred IOTL in Californian politics from 2000-2010 was a perpetuation of a status quo that would not have survived the first recession to hit it. Even without the Governator I doubt that would've ended up changing the OTL situation all that much, though the Democrats might've made a serious push to get rid of 2/3rds budget vote as opposed to changing the redistricting process.

But that's just it. Steady Democratic leadership during the recession and the decade before it gives Campbell an additional boost within and beyond the GOP in 2010.
 
Without Arnold might Tom McClintock win? Looking at the results he got just over 13 percent with Arnold in the race and taking 48 percent himself. the Democratic candidate Bustamante does not seem too popular, having lost his race for Insurance Commissioner in 2006. Even if we assume many voters stay home, might it not be plausible for McClintock to eak out a win? I think he'd have a tough time getting reelected in 2006, being more conservative then Arnold and facing a tough year for the GOP nationally, but I'm not sure who would succeed him, or what their chances of reelection would be in 2010.

As a rule, incumbent GOP governors did surprisingly well in 2006 given the national tide against the Republicans that year. Nonetheless, the problem becomes boosting McClintock, who, if memory serves, is well to the right of Ahhnold and is amenable to northen California but not really the southern part of the state.
 
McClintock did have fairly high approval ratings during the recall campaign; CNN's exit poll had him at 55% favorable 37% unfavorable. Schwarzenegger's favorability rating was slightly lower (51%-44%), and Bustamante's was terrible (37%-58%). If those numbers would hold with Schwarzenegger out of the race, McClintock would have a pretty good chance.

It probably depends on when Schwarzenegger drops out. IOTL, McClintock drew very little ire from Democrats because they were concentrating on Schwarzenegger as their main opponent. The longer McClintock's the Republican frontrunner, the more time Bustamante and other Democrats have to chip away at McClintock's favorability.
 

FDW

Banned
As a rule, incumbent GOP governors did surprisingly well in 2006 given the national tide against the Republicans that year. Nonetheless, the problem becomes boosting McClintock, who, if memory serves, is well to the right of Ahhnold and is amenable to northen California but not really the southern part of the state.

You have to remember that Schwarzeneggar barely managed to his first term IOTL, with McClintock being farther to the right all you would really need to beat him is a Democrat with a pulse (Such as Jerry Brown). And you also have to remember that California's major politicians have tended to come from the Northern part of the state, so Southlanders will latch onto anyone from their part of the state who runs for a major office.
 
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