Without Arnold might Tom McClintock win? Looking at the results he got just over 13 percent with Arnold in the race and taking 48 percent himself. the Democratic candidate Bustamante does not seem too popular, having lost his race for Insurance Commissioner in 2006. Even if we assume many voters stay home, might it not be plausible for McClintock to eak out a win? I think he'd have a tough time getting reelected in 2006, being more conservative then Arnold and facing a tough year for the GOP nationally, but I'm not sure who would succeed him, or what their chances of reelection would be in 2010.