No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Good to See that Russia planned this through
Well, in OTL everything went wrong by a set of really foolish reasons. Well before the war Russia had an effective set of the agents both in China and Japan and at the early stage of a war one of the top figures clearly explained that it will make sense to stick with Japan because it is going to be a leading factor in the region. In other words, just not change anything and you’ll be OK: China after the Ili crisis was not considered a friendly state but relations with Japan had been quite cordial. So, basically, the winning scenario was: do nothing.

When S-JW started, AIII died. And Nicky found himself surrounded by the people who were more experienced in pretty much all areas. So it was reasonable for him to listen to their opinions. But even being brilliant does not automatically mean making the right decisions. Witte considered situation from a financial position and it seemingly made sense to provide China with a loan to pay war indemnity to Japan in exchange for getting concession on construction of the East-China RR. Which also seemingly made sense both by providing a nice shortcut to Vladivostok and by ability to get money for transporting cargo across Manchuria. Of course, abandoning Russian route (TransSib) meant that the Russian territory will not be developed but when you are putting the finances first these considerations do not matter. The next step was also “logical”: if Russia is already close, why don’t “lent” Liandong peninsula and turn it into a commercial terminal and naval base? On this move NII was encouraged by combination of Cousin Willy, Witte, and naval leadership. Willy wanted Russia to get stuck on the Far East, Witte was dreaming about competition with the major Chinese ports and the naval personages bought an idea of the “warm water port”. Of course, taking into an account that just recently Russia and Germany forced Japan to leave the peninsula, Japanese reaction had been 100% predictable. Anyway, the Russian money lent to China had been used to built a modern Japanese navy but if the peninsula was left in Japanese possession, a noticeable part of that sum would be spent upon improving ports of PA and Dailan and building fortifications. BTW, with the unknown amounts spent on Dalnij (which did not become what it was expected to be), PA never got anything close to the money and other resources needed for the adequate fortifications but this was not exactly problem of the Finances Ministry.
Boxer rebellion resulted in a serious dislike of the Russians by population of Manchuria and resulting need to keep troops guarding East-China RR, which caused international tensions and strengthened the British support of Japan. And, because, when you start doing something stupid, it is hard to stop, it was reasonable to extend the RR all the way to Korea, which was Japanese protectorate.

But none of the above would have to happen with a little bit of a foresight and even proper consideration of the known facts so I’m just trying to minimize amount of the OTL idiocies to an acceptable level. 😉
 
But none of the above would have to happen with a little bit of a foresight and even proper consideration of the known facts so I’m just trying to minimize amount of the OTL idiocies to an acceptable level. 😉

Now, now they were perfectly logical and bright ideas at the start. It's just that once things started going downhill no one was there to push the brakes.

But yeah it's quite interesting how both Germany and later the British were maneuvering Russia, one was trying to get it focused on the east away from Balkans and conflict with Austria while other was later trying to encourage it to look towards Europe. Ironically correct answer to both problems "Do nothing " .
 
Now, now they were perfectly logical and bright ideas at the start. It's just that once things started going downhill no one was there to push the brakes.
This is exactly the point I was making. The ideas looked logical based upon faulty information or simply a flight of imagination. And Nicky was too weak to stand up to the figures like Witte or his uncle Admiral-General (and those behind him). Besides, while I’m not sure if Witte was seriously into self-enrichment schemas, most of the rest, including the naval and military establishment, were. Linevich was reportedly one of the first to grab some concessions in Manchuria, construction of Dalnij reportedly was a black hole for the money, Bezobrazov’ clique included top court personages, etc. So why would anybody start pushing the breaks spoiling the fun?

But yeah it's quite interesting how both Germany and later the British were maneuvering Russia, one was trying to get it focused on the east away from Balkans and conflict with Austria while other was later trying to encourage it to look towards Europe. Ironically correct answer to both problems "Do nothing " .
Pretty much so. Well, nobody would object against Russia getting a little bit of something: everybody did and this was normal. But OTL looked as a complete insanity.
 
Noooo, at least 3. Pretty please?
Nope. Don’t be such a greedy imperialist (😜). What for? To get an uncontrollable border with China and have legitimately few millions Chinese which will screw all demographics, create a huge crime wave, contribute little to the economy and will be disloyal. And the gain will be what? More taiga forest?

In “doing nothing” option, Chinese Manchuria is almost isolated from the rest of China, which on its own pretty much secures Vladivostok. And friendly relations with Japan plus money not being wasted on the colonial adventures, would do the rest of the trick. In OTL in 1904 - 1905, with all waste and problems Russia raised 7 Siberian army corps units. ITTL with a bigger regional population, more money, more powerful industry and better communications, there could be at least couple more and this would provide all security necessary until more arrive from the west.
 
Nope. Don’t be such a greedy imperialist (😜).
Guilty as charged
What for? To get an uncontrollable border with China and have legitimately few millions Chinese which will screw all demographics, create a huge crime wave, contribute little to the economy and will be disloyal.
Yup. I am definitely not up to speed like you, but change Chinese for Polish, and the commentary is mostly the same. With more troops crime can be fought.
And the gain will be what? More taiga forest?
Well...... let me quote a wiki I found (ymmv)
Petroleum is of great importance in Heilongjiang, as it has the largest amount of oil resources in all of China. The Daqing oilfield is not only the largest in China, but it also serves as one of the few remaining large oil fields in the entire world. In addition to petroleum, several other important minerals are also found in Heilongjiang, including coal, gold, lead, and graphite.

........

Heilongjiang is part of northeast China (Manchuria), the traditional base of industry for the People's Republic of China. Industry is focused upon coal, petroleum, lumber, machinery, and food, and although the economic output in Heilongjiang ranks first in the nation, 90 percent of the materials are exported to other parts of China. Due to its location, Heilongjiang is also an important gateway for trade with Russia.
It's absolutely not that Russia doesn't have this, but easily accessible in the Far East?
 
Guilty as charged

The next thing I expect to hear from you is … well, nevermind.😂
Yup. I am definitely not up to speed like you, but change Chinese for Polish, and the commentary is mostly the same. With more troops crime can be fought.
ITTL the Polish “issue” is absent so why change one pain in the posteriors for another, which would be even greater?

Well...... let me quote a wiki I found (ymmv)

It's absolutely not that Russia doesn't have this, but easily accessible in the Far East?
Russia already was one of the world leading oil producers and the biggest kerosine producer and there is oil on Sakhalin and elsewhere (BTW, AFAIK, China is still importing Russian oil). The problem was not in getting more natural resources, RE has plenty of them, but in making effective use of them so getting more means seduction of the extensive vs. intensive way of development. Anyway, look at the OTL results of getting into Manchuria.
 
The next thing I expect to hear from you is … well, nevermind.😂
😘😘

ITTL the Polish “issue” is absent so why change one pain in the posteriors for another, which would be even greater?
Because they haven't learned from the Polish issue so they don't know beyond some minor issues within the Caucasus, which they found success with.

Russia already was one of the world leading oil producers and the biggest kerosine producer and there is oil on Sakhalin and elsewhere (BTW, AFAIK, China is still importing Russian oil). The problem was not in getting more natural resources, RE has plenty of them, but in making effective use of them so getting more means seduction of the extensive vs. intensive way of development.
You mean like forcing an unwanted population to mine it against their will? Obviously its morally deplorable, but would it be out there for the time? And we know that won't work and isn't worth it, but do they know it ITTL?

Anyway, look at the OTL results of getting into Manchuria.
They don't know that. Plus if the Russians agree with the Japanese that the other parts (with many natural resources as well) go to the Japanese and are not as greedy as OTL, the Russians might actually be able to keep it for long enough to actually profit from grabbing it. Given the better relations as OTL both sides might be open to such an agreement.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if Japan is blocked, do you want your neighbour to become a potential rival? Though I'm not sure they know how rich in resources the part Russia will leave the Japanese to try and take is, so that might be too much hindsight as well.
 
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😘😘


Because they haven't learned from the Polish issue so they don't know beyond some minor issues within the Caucasus, which they found success with.

Is it absolutely necessary to learn things hard way? Anyway, ITTL there is already an official research of the “foreign factor” in the Russian Far East strengthened by the reports from the “64 villages” region and other documentation. The picture is bleak: unauthorized immigration, crime of all types (including counterfeiting), very questionable economic usefulness, “unfair competition” with the Russian businesses, disobedience of the Russian laws, unwillingness to assimilate, etc. As cherry on the top comes a military attack on Blagoveschensk and armed attempts to disrupt navigation on the Amur. What else is there to learn to make the conclusions?

In OTL timing of these factors is different but, FYI, “cleansing” in Blagoveschensk area had been conducted with a heavy involvement of the local “volunteers” and the same goes for the actions against the honghuzies. But there were additional factors absent ITTL:
  1. NII just became an emperor and, generally, did not give a blip until Russia was very deep in <youknowwhat> to easily get out: East China RR was the only communication line to the Far East and could not be abandoned: TransSib was completed only during WWI.
  2. There were numerous private/group financial interests starting from the top and all the way down to the local authorities. Even if we assume that Witte just “had a dream”, quite a few people, including members of the imperial family (for example, Alexander Mikhailovich) considered situation as a way to make money and the same goes for various speculators and the regional civic and military authorities. “Concession” was a magic word and so was “state contract” on a project personally sponsored by the Finance Minister/Chairman of the Committee of Ministers (AFAIK, the exact sums soent on Dalnij never were disclosed).
  3. With a shortage of the Russian population and underdeveloped regional infrastructure the Chinese were “necessary evil” in the terms of food supplies and work force.
None of these considerations exists or critical ITTL, even #2.

You mean like forcing an unwanted population to mine it against their will? Obviously its morally deplorable, but would it be out there for the time? And we know that won't work and isn't worth it, but do they know it ITTL?

In OTL the experience came after the RJW, ITTL it is already there: Chinese as the mining workers already proved to be ineffective and unreliable. Not to mention that their presence was conductive to proliferation of the Chinese organized crime.

Now, if I understand your drift correctly, the answer is: in the terms of a forced labor RE of the late XIX, while not being a paradise on the Earth, was neither Stalinist SU nor modern PRC or the Imperial Japan, which means that there were no legitimate tools for “forcing”. And why bother if everything needed was already available within RE with a better infrastructure making shipping cheaper?

They don't know that. Plus if the Russians agree with the Japanese that the other parts (with many natural resources as well) go to the Japanese and are not as greedy as OTL, the Russians might actually be able to keep it for long enough to actually profit from grabbing it. Given the better relations as OTL both sides might be open to such an agreement.

Strictly speaking, development of the Northern Manchuria would not be in the Russian interests because it meant more Chinese and more difficulties with controlling the border. Putting aside the fact that most of the natural resources were not discovered by the late XIX, there was no shortage of them on the Russian side. The problems were with financing creation of the infrastructure (extraction, transportation, processing, etc.) so can you explain why these capitals and resources had to be better spent outside Russia than inside?


Though I wouldn't be surprised if Japan is blocked, do you want your neighbour to become a potential rival? Though I'm not sure they know how rich in resources the part Russia will leave the Japanese to try and take is, so that might be too much hindsight as well.
Rival in what? Russian trade in and across the Pacific is limited and even with Japan it is rather a good neighborhood than critically important (for Russia) trade. Speaking of which, even with a control of the whole Manchuria Japan did not have enough iron, oil, etc. all the way to 1939 and heavily depended upon their imports (including Sakhalin oil). So there would be no reason to assume in the 1890s that situation is going to be different in a predictable future.
 
That works, good arguments. I still want it though. I'll nitpick one:
so can you explain why these capitals and resources had to be better spent outside Russia than inside?
If we add Heilongjiang to Russia, it is spending in Russia :winkytongue::winkytongue:

One question: how about chasing the Chinese population away, substituting them for Koreans that escaped the Japanese, plus Russians? Still won't work due to sheer size of the current population and there will not be enough of the Russians and Koreans right?
 
Peculiar war
313. Peculiar war
It's sad to be a scapegoat among the aces.”
“The bigger the mistake, with the greater zeal it is defended.”
“Subordinates are also people - and they don't want to think either.”
“I have such an unpleasant feeling that you are right.”

G. Essa
"The army is a bad school, as war does not happen every day, and the military pretends that their work is permanent."
George Shaw
“Stupidity is a gift from God, but it should not be abused.”
Bismarck​



Japanese. Even before all repairs needed after the battle at Yalu were completed, the ships of vice-admiral Ito’s fleet had been actively cruising all over the Bohai Sea. Their task was two-fold: 1st, to watch for the possible movements of the Beiyang Fleet and 2nd, to keep Chinese confused regarding Japan’s strategic plan. Strictly speaking, both activities were excessive because the Beiyang Fleet was not leaving its base at Lushun and whatever was passing for Chinese top command had difficulties to get together enough troops to try defending positions along the Yalu River. But you never can be too careful, especially when planning a daring operation.
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The goal of this operation, for which the whole 2nd Army (28,000 troops with the siege artillery) had been formed, was to take Lushun and the whole Liaoning peninsula. By doing this they’d get a naval base on the Yellow Sea while depriving China of it (and of the only big dry dock). Then, possession of a decent port would greatly simplify landings of the troops and supply issue removing a need to carry supplies all the way from the Korean ports. Importance of the task could not be overestimated so the 2nd Army had been placed under command of a figure no lesser than Minister of War, Marshal Ōyama Iwao [1].
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Taking into an account that after crossing the Yalu River the 1st Army was advancing and extending its front, it was obvious that the 2nd Army would execute the Liaoning operation on its own. The planners had to keep in mind the timing factor: it was the end of October and the weather was getting colder.
Taking Lushun by a direct naval assault was not realistic: on the sea-side fortress had strong modern concrete fortifications with the numerous Krupp and Armstrong guns and would destroy Ito’s fleet within hours. Besides, she shallow inner harbor would deprive Japanese ships of ability to maneuver. So it was decided to attack fortress from the land and the main problem was to decide where to land the 2nd Army.
On October 14 vice-admiral Ito received an order to stop the “mosquito bites” along China’s coast and and concentrate a force adequate for the safe transporting of the 2nd Army to the Liaoning (more than 50 transports carrying troops, artillery, etc.). Ito proposed the landing place but Oyama was against it: the sea was too shallow and the soldiers would have to march almost a kilometer knee deep over a marshy bottom. Besides, the landing was too far from the destination depriving him of a surprise factor. Ito, who knew area quite well, had to spend few days trying to convince a stubborn marshal that any other place would just as bad or worse: all north-eastern coast of the peninsula was shallow with a silty bottom.

Marshal was extremely irritated by the fact that a mere vice-admiral dares to argue with him. Even more irritating was the fact that admiral was absolutely right, and subordinate being right is unforgivable sin in pretty much any culture. The whole well-conceived operation is being at risk due to a nonsense like a silt. So he insisted upon his demand and Ito sent a gunboat for the reconnaissance. The place found was even worse than the initially proposed. The landing ships could not get closer than 4.5 miles. However, the marshal insisted on it, probably just to show who is the boss. On October 23, after a week of a bickering, the first group of 8 transports approached the landing area. The cruisers and destroyers were covering it from the sea. The following groups would be coming each second day not to overburden the landing craft. Landing started on October 24, practically simultaneously with crossing the Yalu by the 1st Army.
All the difficulties that Ito warned about were fully manifested. 150 boats with 15 steam boats could not make more than three flights a day, while they could reach the shore only at high tide. During the low tide the troops had to march across the water for over a kilometer which, due to the silty bottom, was taking more than a hour. The first landed troops were the engineers companies which had to start construction of a pier 200 meters long to allow unloading of the artillery.

There was a brief period of a near panic when Chinese field battery appeared near the landing site and opened fire. It managed to cause some damage to the boats and disrupted the engineers’ work but then left. [2] This delayed completion of the landing by a day or two but three or four batteries properly deployed could make the whole thing catastrophic.

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Intermission. Fortunately for the Japanese, Chinese military situation on the peninsula was chaotic, to put it mildly. When the war started there was some semblance of organization and chain of command.
“Semblance” because because competence of the leadership was quite low and positions had been given based upon the family links, not the military qualifications: Li Hongzhang was a part of the system and, as such, probably was “best of the worst” but not some kind of an exception. Commander in Lushun was his relative (or inlaw) [3] who wanted one thing, to get the Hell out. He did sail out of Lushun and, after Li Hongzhang ordered him to get back to his post (of what usefulness such a commander could be is anybody’s guess), managed to send his property to the “mainland”, which, of course, did not improve the troops spirit. Most of the rest also were also somebody’s relatives or somebody’s cronies.

Anyway, after the fall of Pyongyang most of the trained garrison troops had been transferred to the army defending the Yalu River to be substituted by the troops arriving from various provinces. Besides having varying, and usually very low, level of training, these troops had their own commanders with a result being that there were five or six absolutely independent commanders on the peninsula, most of them not having a clue about the existing defense system and even lesser idea regarding the modern war.
Probably almost the only good quality troops were artillerymen of the coastal defenses in Lushun.

Construction of the Lushun fortifications and naval base started few years earlier and expenses were quite significant. There was an arsenal, a dry dock [4], a big depot for the torpedo storage, big warehouses for storing provision and equipment, and signal posts along the coast. The narrow passage into the inner harbor was well covered by the artillery, the coastal forts had been made of concrete with the steel artillery towers housing large caliber Krupp guns. They were placed on the heights domineering the harbor and allowing to completely close the entry.

On the land side the defenses were much weaker. The concrete was not used, artillery was of various types and calibers. Some approaches were well covered by a crossfire but there were big dead zones. Communications between the batteries and forts had been done by a wired telegraph and there was a system of trenches.

Garrison was supposed to be approximately 7,000 trained troops and up to 8,000 untrained mobilized troops. Plus, all local male population capable of carrying the guns would have to join the defense. Their weapons would be the rifles of all types and calibers: single-shot Mauser, magazine Remigton, Henry-Martini, etc.
1678511881340.jpeg


Back to the Japanese landing. It took 4 days to construct a pier after which unloading of the artillery started. The guns had been loaded on the rafts and tugged by the steamboats to the pier, which further slowed the infantry landings: a single artillery raft had to be tugged by 3 steamboats. The landed troops suffered from the shortage of water and had to be marched deeper into the peninsula, which would be killing Oyama’s surprise factor if the Chinese were at least marginally competent. But during 10 days of the landing Chinese did nothing except for a small initial encounter [5].
On November 3 Oyama started his offensive facing zero resistance. The narrowest space on the peninsula is a chain of the heights only 2.5 km wide protected on both sides by the shallow waters preventing interference from the navy. It was not fortified except for the ancient clay wall nearby and weak earthworks on the heights. The only artillery position, 4 Krupp guns, could be easily bypassed on the flanks and 2,000 soldiers allocated for holding the heights were not enough. It is not that they were only troops available: 1,200 had been holding the clay wall and 3,750 were idling in Dailan. None of these troops were intended for strengthening defense of the heights.
The rest of that stage of the operation was predictable to a boring degree. The Japanese concentrated the whole division (approximately 10,000) with 4 batteries of the field artillery and 1 battery of the mountain guns against the heights. Attack started on November 6 in 7:45AM and in 3 hours the heights had been taken. The city was abandoned by the Chinese without fighting. The brilliantly planned complex operation (one column holding the front with 2 bypassing the flanks) ended up as an infantry skirmish. Chinese general in charge fled to Lushun.

The next day, storm of Dailan started. The city had 6 powerful forts with 30 big caliber Krupp guns covering both sea and land access. The naval approaches to the harbor had been mined and number of the defenders, together with those retreating from the advance positions, was no less than 7 - 8,000. This was the first, in this war, combined army and navy operation, which meant that a reliable communication between these two branches has to be established. Yeah, sure. Oyama considered himself superior in rank to a vice-admiral [6] and in his opinion the navy was just an auxiliary force in his operations. OTOH, Ito considered the army commanders as a bunch of the clueless buffoons who would still be sitting in Hiroshima without his brave sailors. These attitudes would be a sure recipe for a disaster if the Chinese commanders, who considered themselves superior to everybody else, had been marginally competent.

Ito’s ships appeared in Dalian’s harbor on November 6, when Oyama was launching his first brilliant offensive, and with a high tide started closing to the coast sending the mine boats to check the minefields. They were vast but set up with such ineptitude that their removal was easy. Strangely enough, there was no reaction from the Chinese garrison. The next morning Ito’s squadron got close to the coast and started bombardment of the coast. No reaction. A dense fog was obstructing the view and when it lifted on November 9 the Japanese discovered that the town was left by its garrison day ago.
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Now, the task was to find the Beiyang fleet, which was presumably in Lushun or nearby. A cruiser was sent to find out its whereabouts. Two days later it returned reporting that the harbor is empty. This part of the Japanese plan failed but, OTOH, Lushun was left without a naval protection.

The 2nd Army remained in Dalian until November 17 arranging the supply warehouses and awaiting arrival of a siege park. Now for attack on Lushun Oyama had approximately 20,000 troops with 78 guns including reserve of 30 siege guns of 90, 120 and 150mm. The army was accompanied by a huge supply train (1,300 pack horses not counting the carts), hospital, and telegraph park. It was marching in two columns: one by the only available road and another by a trail going along the eastern coast.
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Russians. So far, this was not too much of a military campaign in the terms of a fighting. The Manchurian troops had been either fleeing or surrendering and most of the local administrators had been expressing a complete willingness to cooperate, especially after the news from the South started arriving and the Russians were seemingly holding to their word not to annex the territory. Most of the military actions were related to finding and exterminating the honghuzi gangs. The captured bandits had been delivered to the local authorities who were eagerly arranging for the public beheadings and more cruel ways of the executions, watching of which the local were seemingly enjoying.
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Agreement with the Japanese command was that the Russians will be operating mostly within the Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces unless Japanese command asks for help (which, as both sides knew, would not going to happen short of a completely unexpected disaster). An agreement allowed the Japanese not to worry too much about their Northern flank while the Russians had been sure that no serious Chinese reinforcements would be coming from the South. Actually, situation was developing somewhat not by the scenario anticipated by both partners because after defeat at the Yalu, the big numbers of the Manchu troops had been fleeing north to their home territory both in a relative order and simply as the deserters. Taking into an account that in both cases they were armed, there could be a potential problem. Not because they could fight the advancing Russian troops with any chance for success but because at least the deserters could join the honghuzi.

Under the circumstances, the best decision was to let the local governor, Tan Jixun [7], to take care (under the Russian supervision) of the situation, putting these troops into the barracks and, after disarming, keeping them fed and taken care of. Most reliable troops had been armed and sent to take care of catching and bring back the deserters or helping to deal with the honghuzi . Of course, the arrangement required a strong but diplomatic Russian oversight and Skobelev found a right man for the job, a deputy of the Governor of Amur N. Grodekov who in Geok-Tepe expedition served as a commander of his vanguard and then was chief of staff of the Transcaspian region.
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Besides being a brave officer, he was a highly educated person with a deep interest in geography and ethnography. What was equally important, he was very humane individual and explicitly instructed his subordinates to treat the local with a respect. “There should be no offended Chinese for no reason on their part. The property and property of every Chinese should be treated especially strictly.” This was an attitude to which the Chinese were not used even from their own administrators. The province was kept quiet, rear of the Russian troops was reasonably peaceful and supply lines secure. Skobelev was free to proceed with the main task of his campaign.

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This main task, was to secure for the newly founded (reestablished?) Mongolian Empire the North-Eastern part of the Inner Mongolia in which the Qing loyalists were still strong and which was hard to reach from the Outer Mongolia. The main targets were areas to the east of the Khingan Mountains and specifically the plains between Khingan and Liaoning Province. Expected arrival of Manlaibaatar Damdinsüren with few thousands Mongolian troops was going to stress a “national aspect” of the campaign guaranteeing that the territory will, indeed, join the Mongolian Empire. Of course, these news would not necessarily make happy to local Chinese who already amounted to more than one third of the population but you can’t please everybody.
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Taking into an account that campaign was most probably drag over the winter, Skobelev took what looked as somewhat extraordinary measures for guaranteeing that his soldiers are properly equipped for a potentially harsh winter. [8] The troops were getting the sheepskin winter coats, warm footwear, gloves, etc. The units were adequately provided with the field kitchen, strongly guarded supply depots had been set and everything was seemingly in a good order except for the lousy roads and anticipated difficulties with the logistics.


________
[1] He was the first recorded Japanese customer for Louis Vuitton, having purchased some luggage during his stay in France in the 1870s. Historic importance of this event allows to overlook the fact that in OTL he became a marshal only in 1898: author from whom I “borrowed” the episode probably did not bother to check the date but the story was too good to miss due to such a trifle. 😂
[2] It is just me trying to be nice (😂) in OTL Japanese did not face any resistance all the way to Lushun and even then not too much. The Chinese ineptitude in that war was truly amazing.
[3] Or otherw, does not really matter. Earlier, one of his relatives, in charge of the naval arsenal, refused to give shells to Beiyang fleet because the request was for an amount exceeding the “regulations”. And he got away with this.
[4] There was a “timing factor”: by 1894 this was the only dry dock in China capable to accommodate the existing battleships. Within few years it would be too small to accommodate the new battleships with the displacement over 10,000 tons. In OTL by 1904 Port Arthur became “problematic” on pretty much each and every item. Even with a big volume of excavation, the battleships could stay in a small part of the inner harbor because the rest remained too shallow for anything bigger than a destroyer. The battleships could get out only in a high tide and only one by one. The repair facilities were quite limited (no space, no access to the needed parts, etc.) allowing a single major repair at a time. And adequate land defense was simply out of question with the finances, artillery and troops that RE could realistically spare. But in 1894 it was still a valuable place and the same goes for Dailan (which Russia turned into a well-equipped merchant port to be delivered intact to the Japanese. ITTL, Japan, not Russia, will be spending money.
[5] To be fair, during the CW, Russian commander, Prince Menshikov, also was aware of the allied landing and did nothing to oppose it or to disrupt march to Balaklava.
[6] One more funny lapse from the “source” (sorry, but I do like finding things like that in the historic books, even the good ones; probably has something to do with self-esteem 😪). “The Marshal and the Minister of War considered himself unconditionally the elder in relation to the vice-admiral, and from the satsum samurai. Everyone knows that monkeys are eaten in the south, how can you obey them even for a while?” Ito was, of course, from Satsuma but so was Oyama so the dietary considerations would apply to both of them. And, while (unlike Ito) he did not participate in the rebellion, he was younger paternal cousin to Saigo Takamori. 😂
[7] Actually, of Hubei - could not find the right one. 😜
[8] In OTL during the winter campaign of the Ottoman War of 1877-78 (winter march across the Balkans) his troops were the only ones that did not lose a single soldier due to the harsh weather because he took a thorough care of getting the proper winter clothing, partially paid out of his own pocket, and taking other measures, like ordering every soldier to carry a log of a dry wood; the smirks ended when his troops were the only ones able to make proper fire in the mountains. So doing similar things ITTL would be completely within a character.
 
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8] In OTL during the winter campaign of the Ottoman War of 1877-78 (winter march across the Balkans) his troops were the only ones that did not lose a single soldier due to the harsh weather because he took a thorough care of getting the proper winter clothing, partially paid out of his own pocket, and taking other measures, like ordering every soldier to carry a log of a dry wood; the smirks ended when his troops were the only ones able to make proper fire in the mountains. So doing similar things ITTL would be completely within a character.
Don't tell me he was a good battle commander too, he might actually be the best they had for a long time....
 
Don't tell me he was a good battle commander too, he might actually be the best they had for a long time....
IIRC, Montgomery (“Monty”) declared him to be the best commander of the late XIX so….

He was enormously popular both among the troops and general population and had “European reputation”. Very successful on a battlefield and as a planner of independent operation: logistics for Geok-Tepe was extremely complicated and he handled it almost perfectly if one does not care about number of the dead camels; however these losses were incorporated into calculation and, from a human-centric point of view, it was better them than the soldiers (what do you want, the people were not too “progressive” at that time and could have their priorities confused 😜).
 
The war is going on
314. The war is going on
“Не спрашивай: какой там редут,
А иди куда ведут
.”
“Что все твои одеколоны,
Когда идешь позади колонны.”
[2]
Prutkov, ‘Military aphorisms’
Believe me, with good troops and experienced generals and officers there are no impregnable fortresses...”
“[in diplomacy] You can always move from affection to threats - you can't always do it other way around.”

M. Skobelev
From the point of the view of the nation's power, it was obvious that while we were fighting the Sino-Japanese war, every effort was to be made to avoid adding to our enemies and opening additional fronts.”
Hideki Tojo [3]​

General situation.
In mid-November situation on the fronts looked as following:
  • The 1st Japanese Army split in two parts:
    • One part kept advancing westward chasing the retreating Chinese units and isolating Liaoning peninsula.
    • Another part advanced northward toward Mukden (Shenyang).
  • The 2nd Japanese Army was advancing toward Lushun.
  • The Russian Manchurian Army reached the Liao River but had no intention to advance to the South not to interfere with the Japanese operations. Instead it was concentrating forces on its right flank with a declared intention to advance into the Inner Mongolia.
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  • The Mongolian Army, strengthened by the Dzungarian Cossack host and rifle brigade from Irkutsk Military district, finished cleaning Outer Mongolia of the Qing loyalists and already reaching the Inner Mongolia (on the map below the road is solid line and caravan routes - dashed lines):
    • The main force (Mongolian troops and Russian units), led by Khatanbaatar Magsarjav, had been moving Southward by the only good road going from Urga through Inner Mongolia and all the way to Hebei province of China.
    • The army of Manlaibaatar Damdinsüren, had been riding to the east of it, using the caravan routes. Its task was to make contact with the Russian Manchurian Army in the eastern part of the Inner Mongolia.
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The 1st Japanese Army was advancing westward, to secure operations of the 2nd Army, and to the north toward Mukden. Strictly speaking, the Chinese on that front were, for all practical purposes, in a desperate situation, having over 60,000 Russian troops in their rear but the Japanese pride was their savior: Japanese Imperial Headquarters insisted that the Russians should not advance to the South of the Liao River. The glory must be all their and they did not need anybody help. Which was quite fine with their Russian “partners” (there was no formal alliance and nothing beyond a general agreement regarding not interfering with each other’s operations): their task was to provide independence of Mongolia, preferably in its largest legitimate extent, and Japanese goals were pretty much irrelevant within that framework. The whole point of the cooperation was that Japan, to reach its goals, took upon itself a burden of most of the fighting, which was very nice of its government and deserved some gratitude which will be expressed in a proper manner later. But, and Alexander III, was quite explicit about this in his conversation with Skobelev, the Russian soldiers should not be dying for the Japanese interests.

Battle for Lushun.
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Decision of Li Hongzhang to remove fleet from Lushun had been quite controversial. He was considering Beiyang fleet a higher priority than the port, which probably was a correct logic in theory. However, due to the fact that Lushun was the only place with the adequate facilities for the major repairs, practical usefulness of the fleet without this specific port was questionable. As a psychological factor, this act definitely made already low morale of the local leadership even lower but, objectively, usefulness of the fleet’s presence in the harbor would not make a principal difference because the main attack was going to happen from the land side and the coastal artillery and fortifications were quite adequate for destroying Ito’s cruisers if they risk to come close. The entry could be mined by few boats to a degree making breaking into the inner harbor pretty much impossible and battle at the Yalu made it clear that in the open sea Beiyang fleet was going to be easily destroyed with a possible exception of its two battleships and even they could be damaged beyond ability to repair them in Weihaiwei.

Anyway, the fleet left Lushun, thus killing Ito’s hope to destroy it in Lushun but this disappointment probably was more than compensated by a panic caused by its departure. The Chinese commandant of the fortress of Lushun, Jiang Guichi, as well as many officers and officials, having taken everything valuable, fled the fortress in advance. Of course, it could be argued that the net result was positive: most of the incompetent cowards left and most of those remaining had intention to put at least some fight.
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2nd Japanese Army was marching toward Lushun. The march was very difficult for both columns: the road was passing through a mountains and the coastal path was going through the soft sands of the beaches covered by water during high tide. The huge masses of the people were tightly compressed. It took the whole three days to get to Lushun.
On November 20 Japanese vanguard was within 4 km from the outer line of the land fortifications. The general assault had been scheduled for November 21. The attackers’ front was 9 km long and was within 2 - 2.5 km from the Chinese fortifications. In a process of getting into the position during the night some of the columns got into the wrong places but these trifles were disregarded.
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At 6:30am all Japanese artillery concentrated its fire on fort Isuzan causing serious damages. However, Japanese regiment sent to take it had been met with a strong Chinese fire and attack stalled. Similar thing happened with attacks on other forts. An attempt to take fortress from the march failed and Oyama had to start a methodical siege.

Fleet did some pointless shooting but the next day weather changed to the worse and it left for Dailan.

But the general situation in Lushun was pretty much desperate because there was no single command and very little courage among the remaining generals. General Xu Bandao made a successful sortie from Lushun, defeating one of the Japanese columns conducting reconnaissance of the area, but was not supported by other troops and was forced to return to the fortress with trophies and prisoners. The next day, seeing that the combat impulse of his units was in vain, he left the fortress with his troops and broke north along the eastern shore of the Liaodong Peninsula. The Japanese didn't try to stop his units.
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Discipline within the fortress was steadily deteriorating and in two weeks the defenses were broken and Japanese troops entered the town. In Lüshun, the Japanese seized huge stocks of military equipment and ammunition, a ship repair dock and an arsenal; the total volume of captured goods was estimated at 60 million yen. Chinese troops fleeing Luishun moved north, and after a retreat merged with units of the Huai Army. In the city, Japanese, presumably enraged by the execution of the Japanese prisoners, conducted a mass execution of the POWs and the local civilians.
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After short rest part of the 2nd Army under command of general Nogi was sent to strengthen troops operating in Manchuria.

Li Hongzhang was deprived of all ranks, but he was allowed to remain in his position - a dignitary for North affairs. China decided to take advantage of the offer from the English Rothschilds to implement a 4% loan of £1,200,000 in gold.
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Constantin von Hanneken, a German officer in China service, was appointed commander in chief with a task to form a new army of 100,000 under command of the European officers.

Born in Trier on the Rhine, Constantin von Hanneken served as a Captain in the Prussian Field Artillery before being hired as one of Detring’s military advisors. He moved to China in 1879 and quickly established himself as a close friend and advisor to Li Hongzhang, for whom he worked until 1887. Li put von Hanneken in charge of reorganizing and modernizing the Chinese army and in designing and building several naval forts including, most significantly, Port Arthur. Von Hanneken was highly decorated for having established Port Arthur in 1881, eventually rising to the rank of Chinese general, and later tasked with the fortification of Talienwan and Weihaiwei.

After receiving news of the fall of Lushun the British government ordered to strengthen its naval force on the Far East by adding to it 1st class cruiser Gibraltar. The war was clearly being lost by China and the question was only in the conditions to which Japan will agree (the Russian operations inland were too far from anybody’s sphere of interest and more or less overlooked by other powers). The European states and the US started looking for a way to protect their own interests in a changed situation. Few offers regarding the armistice had been presented and promptly rejected by Japan: now it could dictate China the peace conditions and the main will be Liaodong peninsula. Well, perhaps Taiwan as well but it has to be captured. So, no peace for a while.

This position had been suiting the Russian government just fine (and deserved encouragement): Skobelev’s troops and Mongolian army had been in a process of getting control over Inner Mongolia so an extra couple months of a war between China and Japan would be a perfect distraction. If by the time their task is completed the war is still going on, the Russian troops are going to be in a position which, geographically, would force China to recognize Mongolian independence and accept other Russian demands. So, Japanese government was assured in Russian diplomatic support and, if need arises, other forms of support as well. The war must go on and as a stimulus Witte arranged for Japan through the Russian Rothschilds a loan of 2,000,000 gold rubles at 4.5%.

Japan was preparing to a winter campaign quite well. The troops got warm clothes, the horses had been getting the winter horseshoes and there were even easy to assemble heated barracks. As a side note, due to the absence of a relevant experience, Japanese notion of the warm clothes was slightly on the optimistic side and probably the same can be said about the diet.
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However, winter weather in Manchuria proved to be colder than expected, terrain was quite difficult and Chinese began learning something. One of the 1st victims of a cold weather was commander of the 1st Army general Yamagata: he got a severe case of rheumatism and was replaced by general Nodzu. The 1st Army started facing serious resistance on both directions of its advance and the Chinese even managed to conduct a not only artillery duels on equal terms but also a number of successful local counter-offensives. As a result, by January 1895 advance on Mukden had been stopped and on the west front stabilized on Hunhe River.

Japanese troops advanced more than 600 km from the Yalu River marching through the mountains and were exhausted. Supplies, especially food supplies, started to be a problem again and, due to the cold weather there were thousands of the sick. By January 1, 1895, according to the report of army commanders, the total number of cases had reached 18,000. Hospitals were overflown and the army was losing its fighting capacity. However, the Chinese were beaten to such a degree and hardly capable of doing something until the spring when the Japanese could expect reinforcements.

China. Formally, the Chinese raised 200,000 new troops to cover Pekin direction but in a reality these troops were not battle ready. It was obvious that Li Hongzhang can’t be in charge of all military operations and Prince Gong had been made a supreme commander of all Chinese military forces. Absolutely all the troops in the country were subordinated to him, provincial governors lost the right to manage troops on their territory. The imperial decree ordered execution on a spot of all soldiers and even high ranking officials who refuse to obey. On the same day, the emperor announced the creation of a defense committee, of which appointed Prince Gong, Prince Qing and other persons, a total of six people. The main task of this body was to exercise the supreme command of the Chinese Armed Forces, as it was done by the Main Headquarters of the Japanese Army. But in a reality this was one more meaningless action of a foolish emperor: the committee members were not strategists, neither military nor political. The main occupation of his members was to reread the reports of Li Hongzhang and generals and try to give some speculative recommendations based on their position. Its creation did not improve the real situation at the fronts, but the opportunities to look for the scapegoats remarkable and this was what the committee members had been concentrating upon. Of course, candidate #1 was …. Li Hongzhang, who else?

It became obvious that the Northern Army alone can’t stand up to the Japanese and decree had been issued about moving to the theater armies of the Southern provinces. Which was another “brilliant” idea. All these armies consisted of the Southerners most of whom never saw snow. Their weapons were obsolete and their commanders worthless. Experience of fighting a well-armed modern army was absent and the obvious fate of these armies was death from cold and enemy’s fire. And, of course, these armies had been sent to the North to prevent capture of Mukden [4]. Their first offensive failed and fighting on that theater temporarily dwindled to the local skirmishes.

At the court “party of war”, Li Hongzhang's opponents, led by the Minister of the Ceremonies, were joined by the main intellectuals of the country - professors of the Hanlin Academy, the first among them was lecturer Wen Tingshi (emperor’s tutor), and had a field day. Most of the generals and officers from the fighting army had been put on trial and demoted or executed to be replaced by the “true patriots”. Li Hongzhang was demoted, removed from a military command but was left responsible for the coastal defenses. War all the way to the victorious end was the slogan.

To avoid misunderstanding, the “peace party” of Li Hongzhang was not for immediate capitulation. Its members was for continuing a war until it was practically possible with a purpose to sign a peace on the acceptable conditions and use the breathing time for strengthening China by further development. Obviously “development” meant that the traditionalists will lose their influence and perhaps wealth as well so they were for the victorious war no matter the cost.

Japan. In a meantime in Hiroshima the Main Headquarters was trying to figure out a way out of the situation in which the 1st Army found itself. It task was to take Mukden and march on Pekin (aka advance in two seriously different directions) to dictate the peace conditions. But winter in Manchuria created absolutely unexpected situation: the army was sniffing, sneezing and complained about the aching joints. After a thorough discussion it was decided not to take Pekin, at least for a while, and instead attack Shandong Peninsula, Weihaiwei Naval Base and the Main Canal, through which rice was delivered from the south to Beijing. Now the main trophy of a war is going to be Taiwan. A new plan required creation of a new, 3rd Army, which would have to take Weihaiwei by end of the winter, before the Chinese raised strong reserves and before domestic opposition in Japan started asking questions about the military expenses.

Inner Mongolia.
While all excitement in Manchuria was going on, 50,000 Russian troops of the “Manchurian Army” had been concentrated in Horqin region just to the east of the Yan Mountains with the advance detachments already controlling the Gubei Pass, the Xifeng Pass, and the Leng Pass and the Shanhai Pass on the coast being within easy reach. The “Mongolian” army of 20,000, most of which being the Russian troops, stopped for the winter in a rich Hetao region of Inner Mongolia with a detachment in Jining on China border protecting communication with the “Manchuriam Army” and Outer Mongolia. Supply lines had been stretched but they were secured and supplies had been steadily coming and, not too surprisingly, the locals were ready to sell food for silver . The soldiers, most of them from Siberia, had been much better used to the cold than Japanese and so far there were no health issues.
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An ordinary soldier of the Russian army was prescribed such a daily diet: 1,539 grams of rye bisquit or 2.2 kilograms of rye bread, 238 grams of cereals, 716 grams of fresh meat (or canned food instead of this norm), 20 grams of butter or lard, 17 grams of flour (for the soup), 6.4 grams of tea, 20 grams of sugar, 0.7 grams of pepper. The soldier also relied on vegetables. Per day - about 250 grams of fresh or about 20 grams of dried vegetables (a mixture of dried cabbage, carrots, beets, turnips, onions, celery and parsley), which went mainly to soup. Food was given twice a day - in the morning and in the evening. Usually it was porridge, that is, a thick rich dish made of cereals, with meat, vegetables and spices crushed in it. And the second time they gave soup - a dish about the same in composition, only a little more liquid. Three times per week soldier was receiving 150 grams of vodka.

________
[1] “Don't ask: what kind of redoubt is there/Just go where you are being lead.”
[2] “What are all perfumes when you are marching at the end of a column.”
[3] Of course, this was about the second war but still applicable
[4] Mukden was a traditional burial place of the Qing emperors. Not being a strategic genius, can’t comment on its military value.
 
“What do you desire?”
‘Lucifer​
"That you leave"
-anyone with two brain cells
“Explain to me: will we be responsible to God for the mass of people we killed in battles.”
M. Skobelev [1]
Yes, yes you will
. Don’t be such a greedy imperialist (😜).
Calling us out like that
Guilty as charged
🧐🤭
“Stupidity is a gift from God, but it should not be abused.”
Bismarck
Not sure it is from God...
I mean, see the guy above
 
Twists and turns
315. Twists and turns
«От вот тебе до на тебе» [1]
Unknown (to you) author
You should accept that unexpected events will occur and that doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world. Unfortunately, none of us are exempt from the tumult of sudden change.
“Since nobody is perfect and everyone makes mistakes, you need to avoid trying to blame yourself or others for unexpected events.”
Kathryn Cannon, ‘8 Ways to Manage Unexpected Events And Keep Cool’
“Complete trust borders on madness.”
Sobi Agatsuma
It's hard to believe that a person tells you the truth when you know that if you were him, you would lie.”
Henry Louis Menken
You can only rely on yourself, and this is a pretty shitty scenario if you are an unreliable person.”
Jody Picolt
You can trust anyone, but you can count firmly - only on yourself.”
Max Fry
You can only betray someone who trusts you.”
Sergey Mavrodi​


Winter of 1894-95. China.
The top priority of Qing government (or rather the party of war, which got an upper hand) was to get Japanese out of the Southern Manchuria with the most important part being prevent capture of Shenyang (Mukden). Not because it had some strategic or economic value but because it was a “sacred capital” of the Manchu.
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Actually, it was a capital only from 1625 till 1640s but it was hosting a palace in which treasures of the royal house had been kept, and the tombs of the early Qing rulers. In other words, was something of a “spiritual capital” of the dynasty and, on both sides, a disproportional efforts (and losses) had been taken to protect/capture a strategically insignificant point on a map.
1678650740738.png
t
With Li Hongzang being removed from a military command, Liu Kunyi was made the commander of all military forces. Not to be confused with Prince Gong who was a supreme commander, which position, just as a membership in the Defense Committee, did not require any military experience. Liu Kunyi entered the Hunan army in 1855, and worked under Li Hongzhang during the suppression of the Taiping Rebellion. Since then he was holding administrative positions or was advising the emperor on the diplomatic issues but at least 40 years earlier he did participate in the military activities, which was better than nothing. As his second in command he got Song Qing who did have the most recent experience, which happened to be demonstrable lousy, in case you forgot, he was in charge of the troops defending the Yalu river and his leadership was so “inspiring” that the troops were deserting in big numbers even before the Japanese came close. Now he was expected “to perform even better”.

Shanhai Pass or Shanhaiguan is one of the major passes in the Great Wall of China, being the easternmost stronghold along the Ming Great Wall, and commands the narrowest choke point in the Liaoxi Corridor. It is located on the east bank of the Shi River between the Yan Mountains and the Liaodong Bay coast.
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The most strategically important part of the ongoing circus was that, by the order of the military geniuses in Pekin, the motley assembly of the ill-trained and badly equipped troops by the early January of 1895 marched through the Shanhai pass eastward leaving Pekin practically undefended. This decision was what was later defined as the “calculated risk” based upon quit reasonable assumption that only a madman is going to try crossing the mountains in a midst of a winter and, anyway, with the Japanese attacking the important places, nobody paid serious attention to the events in Inner Mongolia. It was assumed, quite reasonably, that the bulk of Russian troops is occupying Northern Manchuria and is going to stay there while the small mobile detachments are operating in the Inner Mongolia: whatever was a declared goal of their operations, it was obvious that they want to annex one more piece of the Manchurian territory to have Vladivostok, Blagoveschensk and communications by the Amur fully secured while the whole nonsense about Mongolia is just a smoke screen.

From Skobelev’s order to the troops: “We will face a difficult feat worthy of the proven glory of Russian banners: today we are starting to cross the mountains [2] with artillery, without roads, making our way, in view of the enemy, through deep snowdrifts... Do not forget, brothers, that we are entrusted with the honor of the Fatherland.”
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Of course, it would be easier for Skobelev to march toward Mukden or, alternatively, toward Jinzhou, putting Chinese between his and Japanese troops and forcing surrender with or without a major battle. From a purely military point this would make sense but diplomatically not necessary so:
  • After their military successes cooperation with Japanese government and military commanders was getting increasingly difficult. Of course, in their communications both sides remained very polite but the Japanese commanders kept insisting on clear separation of the operations. Getting together will most probably create serious problems in developing a joined plan of the operations which will be inevitably happening on a very narrow front and arrangements for a joined march along a single road to Jinghou, Shanhaiguan and further will be a complete nightmare. So far, Russian supply lines were rather stretched but they did work reasonably well, especially in combination with a generally kind policies toward the locals and payments for the services and food, which were in an open contrast with the Japanese practices. Marching together will result in a serious dependence upon the Japanese logistics and, even if there will be a willingness, there would not necessarily be physical resources. Not to mention that the soldiers’ diets were seriously different. The same goes for ammunition. Actually, for this stage of campaign, if it proves to be a prolonged one, considerable depots had been created in Jining and Hothot and, when the winter is over, they could be relatively easily brought to Hebei region by the road going along the southern slopes of the Yan Mountains.
  • So far, Japanese government did not demonstrate any intention to develop a formal alliance or even formulate a joined agreement regarding the peace conditions. And if they were intended to pursue exclusively their own goals, then Russia was completely free to do the same.
In other words, there was not a single reason for Skobelev to have his soldiers dying for the Japanese interests. You wanted military glory? It’s all yours, sayonara.
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As a result, while the Chinese and Japanese troops had been engaged in the severe fights across the Liao River and a brand new 3rd Japanese Army [3] was being formed to sail to Dalian, the government in Pekin suddenly was informed that unknown, but seemingly big, numbers of the Russian troops are entering Hebei Province through the passes of the Yan Mountains and already crossed the Great Wall at Gubeikou
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And report came that the enemy’s troops approached the gates of the Great Wall at Zhangjiakou on border with the Inner Mongolia.
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Situation was, obviously both catastrophic and serious and the high-ranking Chinese officials had been send to ask for the armistice and negotiations. They were turned back with a request to send Li Hongzhang as a representative with full power. He was immediately restored in all his titles and privileges all the way to getting back the three-eyed peacock feather and sent to talk with Skobelev being accompanied by the Russian Ambassador in China, Cassini: the whole Sino-Russian situation was in a rather confused state and while, in theory, rejection of the Russian ultimatum amounted to a declaration of war, the negotiations regarding status of Mobgolia kept going on and the ambassadors never were recalled. Fighting in Mongolia was quite minor and in Manchuria almost non-existent with the local administration being left in place.

Li Hongzhang was ready for the tough negotiations expecting Russian requests regarding territories of the Northern Manchuria but there were none. The conditions were few and simple:
  • Full Russian control over the territory of 64 villages.
  • Cooperation of the Chinese government in the border control.
  • Indemnity of 10,000,000 rubles paid in gold paid over 2 years.
  • Chinese recognition of the full independence of Mongolia, both Outer and Inner, with the exception of the Hetao and Ordos regions, which will remain within China.
That was it. The treaty was signed on January 15, 1895 by Skobelev and Cassini for Russia, Manlaibaatar Damdinsüren for Mongolia and Li Hongzhang for Qing Empire.

Li Hongzhang returned to Pekin to receive the hero welcome. The Russian and Mongolian and Mongolian troops had been marching back to their homes. True to the promise, the Russian troops had been leaving Manchurian territory.

Emperor Alexander was quite pleased with the campaign and its outcome: Russian military power had been demonstrated with the minimal losses, Mongolian independence secured a big stretch of the empire’s border in Asia and the pain in posteriors on Amur had been dealt with. All this with the expenses being compensated by the indemnity and without any tensions with any of the Powers. The awards were numerous and generous. Skobelev got St. George 2nd class, which was extremely high military award, and became the full general. The lesser personages also were not forgotten: a special medal “for bravery” on St. George ribbon was minted [4], together with a medal commemorating this campaign and awarded to all participants.

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Concession had been obtained from the Mongolian government on railroad construction to Urga and then further all the way to Hohhot: it was reported that there is a huge number of the cashmere goats in Inner Mongolia and it looked like there are promising coal deposits in Bayan area near Hohhot so, with a minimal lack, there would be no problem with running the locomotives. Of course, besides those mercantile considerations (up to Witte & Co), a railroad going close to the Chinese border will have a definite strategic value.

Of course, Mongolia celebrated its independence. Even more so after receiving 1,000,000 out of the Chinese indemnity. The main problem of Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren and his government was to prevent the Bogd Khan from using too much of it on the religious institutions instead of an army and other necessities.

All this was nice but China’s war with Japan continued and situation was not improving for China. But a signed peace produced serious international ripple effect because quite a few things went contrary to the expectations:

  • Expectation that Russia will try to annex a big part of Manchuria and end up having a quarrel with Japan over the spoils did not materialize.
  • Expectation that Russia will get bogged down in a war also did not materialize.
  • Expectation that Russia and Japan will conclude a formal alliance that would make effective interference of the “interested parties” difficult to almost complete impossibility did not materialize.
This meant that Japan is on its own and potential Russian interference on its behalf, if any, can be only diplomatic. And this meant that Japanese’ excessive cockiness can and even must be addressed promptly and decisively. With Russia now playing a neutrality, the main interested (in the terms of existing or planned investments and all types of concessions in China) parties were Britain, Germany and the US. France was somewhat lukewarm but also had noticeable investments in the Southern China. Together, these powers had currently deployed in Eastern Asia 38 ships with a displacement 95,000 tons while the whole Imperial Japanese Navy had only 31 warships in total with a displacement of 57,000 tons. Taking into an account that some of the powers’ ships were newer and more powerful than what the IJN had and that, if push comes to shove, a much greater number of the ships including the modern battleships, could be brought into the picture, stubbornness all the way to a direct confrontation was not a good idea.

The only question was: are the “powers” ready to flex the muscle and show the Asiatic upstarts who is the boss? Not surprisingly, the driving force was Kaiser Wilhelm. Not only was he making fiery speeches about maintaining world’s peace and stability dutifully picked up by the German newspapers, but the German diplomacy had been actively engaged arguing in a favor of stopping Japan before it’ll completely destroy China (and existing and planned investments). While the Americans remained relatively indifferent the Brits, who were already “in” for millions in the loans, concessions and other investments, were much more attentive and when Wilhelm announced readiness to send three protected cruisers and perhaps even SMS Brandenburg to preserve peace in the region, the British government expressed willingness to join the “action committee” if he abstains from doing this.

As a result, when the 3rd Japanese Army was ready to embark and sail to Dalian, PM Ito received a string-worded message from Britain, Germany and France demanding to agree to a ceasefire right now and proceed with the meaningful talks. Of course, none of these powers had a significant military force anywhere nearby but, as was confirmed by Admiral Ito, their combined force present in the region could sunk most of the Japanese fleet quite easily and disrupt supply of the armies in China turning the earlier victories into a catastrophe. And insistence on presence of their representatives at the talks meant that the favorite game of the cheating and procrastination is not going to work. The concession he managed to get was to have negotiations on Japanese soil. With the news being publicized, the US and Russian Empire immediately jumped into the bandwagon offering their services as the honest mediators.

_____________
[1] Favorite expression of a friend of mine, which, if considered literally, does not make any sense in Russian and (I suspect) can’t be translated to any human language. The deep philosophical sense, if presented in the simple terms comprehended by a general public (like myself), boils down to following: “there is a big distance between what you want and what you are going to get.” 😂
[2] In original “Balkans”.
[3] These armies were 2 divisions strong thus being equal to an usual army corps.
[4] There was certain problem with the awards. While St. George of the 2nd and 3rd class could be awarded for a skillful command in a war, St. George 4th class could be given for the personal bravery in a fight, saving the colors, capturing enemy’s guns, etc. The same applied to the soldiers’ crosses of St. George. While the officers could get other awards, like St. Anne and Vladimir with the swords, the soldiers could not and in a war which involved a lot of maneuvers and a very little shooting, this meant that only few soldiers would get the awards. So the way out was to introduce a medal on the same ribbon. In OTL a medal “for bravery” on St.George ribbon (and, as the cross, having 4 degrees) had been introduced for the military services outside those defined by the status of St.George cross and, as with the cross, the recipients were granted annual payments depending on its degree. Within medal’ “extended definition”, the brand new categories of people became eligible for individual awards. For example, medical personnel helping to carry wounded under enemy’s fire or the Muslim soldiers who could not be awarded a cross.

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