No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

[Kriss]

Thanks, it looks nice. What tool are you using?

Inkspace

Sweden is still a little bit of a question mark to me. Based strictly upon the population army it should be able to raise a big army but:

Personally that's why I brought up potential military reforms after the conflict, from one side Sweden expirienced long peace without major war which made it focus internally, from other side it isn't unusual for a state to overestimate it's military strength and assume that it's troops are more than enough for a challenge and there was entire naval build up going on which was dragging away resources.

Generally, shaking up internal status quo is quite hard without good reason. So yea Swedish troops should probably be on a little cheaper side because of sense of security, but still adequate enough for the same reason Russia is keeping it's Baltic fleet around, no power wants to be dependent on other power for it's protection.

 

[Hastings]

I think Sweden will have a fairly large army. Yes Russia is friendly, but Prussia is always a concern. Very few European countries in this era had an army as small per capita as ATL Sweden would have to to only have 30-50k. Also, the Baltics will provide a considerable force. Yes they have serfdom, but that does not altogether prevent recruiting. Like during the Great Northern War, Sweden raised 10,000 men from the Baltic provinces. The Lithuanian provinces will punch below their fair share, but Sweden's ports along the southern shore of the Baltic will both require garrisons and provide a lot of revenue.

If Sweden's role is decidely secondary, I think it is more likely to be because of rot. All the European armies needed reform during this era, and as mentioned Sweden has not fought a major war in a long time. It could easily be as bad as Prussia. Maybe their reserves are badly trained and armed since no one has ever called them up in generations. Maaybe they split up their forces hither and yon and end up in lots of relatively small campaigns with in Pomerania and East and West Prussia with geriatric generals making sure to have very large garrisons and reserves. Tying up a good number of Prussian troops, but not being exactly inspirational.

Only problem is that Gustav III, who you seem to have similar to his OTL equivalent is someone to take more care than that. However, OTL version was assassinated a dozen years ago, and his son could lack any talent for military administration.

 

[CaedmonCousland]

I'd have imagined that Sweden would have keep a significant military force exactly because of the issues with the Baltic provinces and new Lithuanian land. There's a notable difference between internal development and keeping the status quo. A situation where there overseas lands aren't being as productive militarily and Stockholm has to step lightly in terms of legalities to not step on toes of locals seems the exact thing that they'd have been specifically trying to counter during this time of internal development. They are in the position where they can actually focus on that. Their super long border with Denmark-Norway is not at risk, their border with Russia is safe, Poland was beaten down, etc. This is the time when transferring forces to these lands to force changes that create a better hold on these lands than 'we don't provoke them' is arguably the mindset in this time of increasing authoritarian centralization of the nation. Not like Russia is liable to complain, since they're rather notorious for cracking down hard on people who don't play ball with Moscow. They can still lack any real experience in terms of offensive field armies, since they're experience would probably be heavy garrison duties or stomping on minor rebellions flaring, but I don't think they'd be lacking in numbers. Actually, I could see them have neglected formations or castles on the borders they aren't worries about. Anything not across the Baltic.

That is a significantly different internal development though, which is clearly something you've avoided for non-Russian places. Some borders have changed, but the fact that we ended up with Gustav III shows it. That's fine as well. This is a Russia focused TL, and Sweden has been gradually settling into an obvious supporting power for Russia.

 

[alexmilman]

I think Sweden will have a fairly large army. Yes Russia is friendly, but Prussia is always a concern. Very few European countries in this era had an army as small per capita as ATL Sweden would have to to only have 30-50k.

“Per capita” is not an absolute criteria, especially if you take into consideration that (a) Sweden is very secure within the existing framework of the alliances and (b) that apply the Swedish/Finnish model across the board to all territorial possessions may be impractical. How the traditional Swedish system of the “military settlers” is going to work in the areas where the peasants are mostly serfs and the foreigners who don’t speak Swedish or German?
Then, I’m afraid that there is a certain confusion: conversation was strictly about the field army, 50,000 were the reserve contingents raised in addition to the regular army and passed through certain training. The garrison troops in the Baltic ports are not even mentioned.

Also, the Baltics will provide a considerable force. Yes they have serfdom, but that does not altogether prevent recruiting. Like during the Great Northern War, Sweden raised 10,000 men from the Baltic provinces.

Which was peanuts.

The Lithuanian provinces will punch below their fair share, but Sweden's ports along the southern shore of the Baltic will both require garrisons and provide a lot of revenue.

That’s the point(s). The garrisons are staying in the ports and not participating in the field operations, just as the garrisons of the Russian border fortresses.

If Sweden's role is decidely secondary, I think it is more likely to be because of rot.

You can call it this or you can call it an absence of a necessity. 😜

All the European armies needed reform during this era, and as mentioned Sweden has not fought a major war in a long time. It could easily be as bad as Prussia.

But it is substantially different from Prussia. Prussia became an army with the state attached because it was in the midst of a general European mess since the late XVII or even earlier while Sweden secured its territory in the early XVIII and since then was not involved in the major conflict or even in a broader European politics.

Prussian problem in OTL 1806 was not a size of its army but a stubborn neglecting of the new developments. Sweden ITTL may have a relatively small standing army but its system of the trained reserve troops is quite advanced.

Maybe their reserves are badly trained and armed since no one has ever called them up in generations.

AFAIK, in OTL the reserves proved to be reasonably well trained and most of them had been created after the Finnish War. ITTL the clock is moved forward few years but not generations.

Maaybe they split up their forces hither and yon and end up in lots of relatively small campaigns with in Pomerania and East and West Prussia with geriatric generals making sure to have very large garrisons and reserves. Tying up a good number of Prussian troops, but not being exactly inspirationa

Why such a gloomy scenario? In OTL in 1807 Swedes performed quite well during the siege of Stralsund and their performance during the Finnish War was quite good as well until they were outnumbered, outgunned and eventually outgeneralled (but, AFAIK, the geriatric generals were mostly on the Russian side until AI got pissed off and put Barclay in charge).

Only problem is that Gustav III, who you seem to have similar to his OTL equivalent is someone to take more care than that.

What’s wrong for a state which is not being threatened to have a moderately sized good quality army and reserves? Sweden, even prosperous one, is not an overly rich country and having a huge army just in case may destroy that prosperity.

However, OTL version was assassinated a dozen years ago, and his son could lack any talent for military administration.

Well, do you want me to have him dead before war starts? 😂

 

[alexmilman]

I'd have imagined that Sweden would have keep a significant military force exactly because of the issues with the Baltic provinces and new Lithuanian land. There's a notable difference between internal development and keeping the status quo. A situation where there overseas lands aren't being as productive militarily and Stockholm has to step lightly in terms of legalities to not step on toes of locals seems the exact thing that they'd have been specifically trying to counter during this time of internal development. They are in the position where they can actually focus on that. Their super long border with Denmark-Norway is not at risk, their border with Russia is safe, Poland was beaten down, etc. This is the time when transferring forces to these lands to force changes that create a better hold on these lands than 'we don't provoke them' is arguably the mindset in this time of increasing authoritarian centralization of the nation.

In OTL Sweden owned the Baltic provinces for quite a while but, AFAIK it chose to confirm the traditional rights of the local nobility and cities (Russia did the same when got them). And nobility’s rights meant serfdom. As a result, the cities were loyal and nobility provided the big numbers of good quality officers. Which, for all practical purposes, amounted to “a better hold”. Look, we are still in the early XIX and there is no reason to be excessively anachronistic in the terms of attitudes: the Estonian and Latvian peasants were considered the lesser people by the German-speaking nobility and townsfolk and there was no reason for Swedish administration to adopt the views that belong to the end of the XIX.

Not like Russia is liable to complain, since they're rather notorious for cracking down hard on people who don't play ball with Moscow.

Why would Russia get involved? This would be an issue for the provincial ruling classes.

They can still lack any real experience in terms of offensive field armies, since they're experience would probably be heavy garrison duties or stomping on minor rebellions flaring, but I don't think they'd be lacking in numbers. Actually, I could see them have neglected formations or castles on the borders they aren't worries about. Anything not across the Baltic.

Lithuania is still a potential powder keg, especially if administration is trying to infringe upon the nobility's rights so why have never-ending annoyance with the local nobility over the issue about which nobody in Stockholm really cares? Of course, there are Swedish garrisons here and there but excessive military presence costs money (taxes are being spent on their upkeep instead of going to Sweden) and they may start annoying the locals. Unlike Russia, which got areas predominantly Orthodox and with majority of a population speaking languages close to Russian, Sweden got area with a population absolutely “alien” culturally, linguistically, etc. and can communicate with most of its new subjects only through their lords: who is going to start learning Samogitian?

That is a significantly different internal development though, which is clearly something you've avoided for non-Russian places.

Yes, because this is a big and complicated issue on which I don’t feel myself knowledgeable enough and so far I’m trying to avoid “the mighty cranberry”. 😂

Some borders have changed, but the fact that we ended up with Gustav III shows it. That's fine as well. This is a Russia focused TL, and Sweden has been gradually settling into an obvious supporting power for Russia.

Yes..

 

[Kriss]

Yes, because this is a big and complicated issue on which I don’t feel myself knowledgeable enough and so far I’m trying to avoid “the mighty cranberry”. 😂

Now, now don't try to run from it, you pretty much changed fate of France and Spain significantly.

 

[alexmilman]

Now, now don't try to run from it, you pretty much changed fate of France and Spain significantly.

Spain was quite superficial and France is just France with the level-headed rulers instead of Nappy. But making a completely uniform state out of alt-Swedish Empire is somewhat beyond my (plausible) imagination: OTL Sweden did not do it on a lesser territory and the Russian Empire failed to do this as well.

Actually, I don’t see any valid reason for the Swedish government to try: the loyal ruling classes had been keeping the ruled classes under control, the taxes were collected and as long as the government was not trying to enforce some “head-hitting” ideas, everything was working smoothly with a minimal state effort. Changes may produce somewhat better results (define “better”) in a long run but in a short run they will create a mess with the outcome unclear except for a guaranteed administrative headache.
Try couple “simple” things:

1. Revoke traditional guild privileges in Riga. Seemingly right thing to do because in theory it opens city to the new entrepreneurs, businesses, etc. In a reality, there will be a prolonged administrative nightmare of settling quarrels between the newcomers and the old guilds which are going to sabotage and boycott them on each twist and turn with a resulting disruption of an ongoing profitable trade. You can start with the simplest and most obvious issues: where these newcomers will get place for their warehouses and piers in a port?
2. Try to make the “ruled classes” a part of the existing judicial system. The first obvious question is how are you going to communicate with them if they are predominantly illiterate and don’t know either Swedish or German? Time of the educated classes speaking the native language is quite a few decades away. Well, of course there is going to be very unhappy Baltic nobility and, instead of the useful loyalists you are going to get a permanent opposition throwing monkey wrenches into your administrative machine. CII had plans to integrate Baltic provinces but gave up. NI in 1849 introduced serfdom reform for the Baltic provinces but in 1854 Landtag of Liflandia practically abolished it and only in 1860 AII enforced reform to deal with the uprisings of the Estonian peasants. But this is a seriously different historic period.

 

[alexmilman]

d174. A window of opportunity?

“If opportunity doesn't knock, build a door.”
Milton Berle
“Opportunities are like sunrises. If you wait too long, you miss them.”
William Arthur Ward
“If a window of opportunity appears, don't pull down the shade.”
Tom Peters
“Click here for a potential once in a lifetime opportunity! Thank you for entering the Russian roulette tournament.”
Advertisement
“Когда в товарищах согласья нет, на лад их дело не пойдет и выйдет из него не дело, только мука” [1]
Крылов
“I don't believe anyone. I only believe that all people are scoundrels!”
Alexander I
​

1805. Everywhere

The decision-makers in Vienna and Berlin had been engaged in the secret discussions regarding a joined plan of actions for the the future war, which was a rather difficult task because there was no complete certainty about the potential opponents and, as a result, a scope of the future operations and desirable goals.

On the Prussian side the King’s choice of a general planner was General Phull, of the General Staff. “He was a very intelligent and educated person, but did not have any practical knowledge. He has long led such a closed mental life that he knew absolutely nothing about the world of everyday phenomena” [2] and as a result had reputation of a leading military theoretic. Which does not imply that his ideas had been inevitably bad, just that they were not necessarily applicable to the specific circumstances. [3]

It was expected that the Prussian commander-in-chief will be an elderly Duke of Brunswick but he was going to be accompanied by the King with a staff of his choice, a perspective which he actually enjoyed “because he could submit his decision to superior authority, and as he feared that the modesty of the King would prevent him from taking hold of affairs to the extent that the Duke himself wished, he considered the staff of the King almost as a lover's magnet.” [2] Then, the main Prussian army of 14 divisions had to be split based upon the personality issues:

• Principal army led by the Duke (with the King & Co attached) - 6 divisions located in Western Prussia
• Silesian army - 5 divisions under command of Prince Hohenloe. He had already commanded a corps in 1792-3-4; he commenced to be more highly considered in the Prussian army than the Duke was, as he was ten or twelve years younger and more energetic. It was not believed possible to deny him the command of a suitable army, under the supreme authority of the Duke, but an army almost as large as a principal army. Needless to say that he was planning to be as independent as. possible.
• Ruchel’s corps - 3 divisions located in Eastern Prussia.

In total, on a planned main theater Prussia was committing 120 - 130,000.
Plus, there were approximately 20,000 on the Saxon border and similar number on a border with Swedish Pomerania.


On the Austrian side the main planner was, inevitably, general Weyrother who, with the support of Archduke John, preserved his reputation of a great planner intact after the Hohenlinden and even was appointed military adviser to the new Foreign Minister, Graf Ludwig von Cobenzl in the negotiations following the Armistice of Steyr, which led to the Peace of Lunéville in 1801. Of course, his plans had to fit within framework of a general strategy envisioned by Archduke Charles but so far both of them were seemingly in synch on a “cautiously aggressive” approach favored by Charles.

The Austrian forces of 210,000 had been placed on a front of approximately 600 km long, a new Austrian - Polish and, on South-Eastern flank, Austrian-Russian border. Due to not quite clear political situation with the Ottomans and France, 50,000 more had been held spread from Italy to Salzburg. Austria built the largest army in its nation's history, though its fighting quality was hampered by numerous factors. The men were conscripted from across the Austrian Empire and included Austrians, Hungarians, Czechs, Poles, Croats and Serbs; some, including the Hungarians, did not enthusiastically support their Austrian rulers. Conscription focussed on the lower classes of society and the private soldiers, most of the non-commissioned officers, and many junior officers were illiterate. The army was well drilled in massed column formations which were effective against cavalry but vulnerable to artillery fire. The regular infantry were thought too slow-witted to be trained in skirmishing; this role had traditionally been filled by grenzer light infantry units, but their quality declined since the potential conflicts with the Ottoman Empire ended. The deficiency was only partly remedied by recently created volunteer jäger units. The Austrian cavalry was of reasonably good quality, though it was hampered by large numbers of its horses being only partly trained. The artillery was not dynamic, being placed under infantry commanders in the field and lacking proper horse artillery to manoeuvre quickly. The Austrian army was supposed to be supplied by a large wagon train, which restricted its manoeuvrability. Its senior officers were appointed based on aristocratic backgrounds and seniority, rather than ability; this led to elderly generals – the average being 63 and the young Archdukes placed in command well above their qualifications. The field commander, Archduke Charles, was unable to dismiss any of his commanders. He favoured doctrine over flexibility and expected his generals to follow a guide he had published couple years earlier. The field army was divided into 8 corps units, each having between 20 and 35,000. The right flank, two corps under command of Prince Schwarzenberg (40,000) were assigned a passive role of protecting the main force from a potential Russian attack. Which left 170,000 on a main direction.

As far as the military activities were involved, no special arrangements about cooperation had been made. The Prussians had to advance on the left and Austrians on the right and in each specific case when a close cooperation is needed, the issues will be resolved by the commanders of a spot with one of a senior rank taking charge.

General plan regarding division of the Polish territory looked as following:

• Prussia is getting Plock and all territories west of it and Vistula and North of the Pilica River, including Warsaw (with Praga).
• Austria is getting the rest of Cracow vojevodship, the vojevodships of Sandomir, Lublin, Belz and what’s left of Chelm and Wolyn.

Then, depending upon the list of opponents, Prussia was planning to get Danzig, Stralsund and whatever else it manages to grab from Sweden (if it enters the war) and/or a piece of Saxony (if it enters a war). In the case of the acquisitions Austria may compensate itself with the further acquisitions in Poland.

The timing was seemingly favoring the Austrians and Prussians:

• In Ottoman Empire there was an ongoing Serbian revolt, formally in support of the Sultan Selim III against the renegade janissary but by 1805 the victorious Serbs established a government and parliament that returned the land to the people, abolished forced labor, and reduced taxes. So far Selim did not decide if the Serbian autonomy should be recognized or crashed but a major Ottoman operation on the Balkans was not too probable unless the Sultan decides to acknowledge their autonomy and use them against Austria.

• The French Republic did not make any explicitly hostile moves but a recent appointment of general Massena Inspector-General of the Southern Departments looked suspicious regardless the official explanation that the famous general was simply sent to keep troops of the region in a descent shape.
• British government so far was showing no interest whatsoever to the Polish affairs so there was no hope of getting a subsidy but, OTOH, there was no reason to expect any kind of a hostile action.
• Frrederick, Prince Regent of Denmark, kept telling everybody willing to listen about the Danish neutrality.

Which left two big question marks:

• Paul of Russia
• Gustav III of Sweden.

It was reasonable to assume that on his own Gustav is not going to interfere into the war, which would limit a scope of the Prussian ambition but, OTOH, make partition a sure thing. So the key factor was Paul and the latest news were that he is dying from getting a severe cold. Finally, in March 1805 the couriers from Moscow brought dispatches informing the courts of Vienna and Berlin that the Emperor Paul died to be succeeded by his son Alexander, 25 years old.
“As for Grand Duke Alexander Pavlovich, he is charming: angelic character, courtesy, meekness and evenness in character do not change for a minute.” [4]

By reputation he was a nice young man, eager to make a good impression on everybody, seemingly indecisive and definitely not having his father’s strict notions regarding the moral obligations, sanctity of the treaties and other chivalric notions about which he was noticed making cautious jokes during his father’s reign.
When approached by the ambassadors, he flatly refused to discuss any political issues until the year of mourning is over. Chancellor Count Alexander Vorontsov died soon after Emperor Paul and the Foreign Minister, Count Nicholas Rumiantsev, restricted himself to reference to the monarch’s will and to a casual remark that Russia does not have any binding obligations toward Poland. To the questions regarding concentration of the Russian troops in Ukraine he pleaded a complete ignorance on the issues military. Fieldmarshal Mikhail Kamensky, the highest-ranking Russian general who, in his 67, was a little bit peculiar in his behavior [5] but still accepted at court and respected as a surviving relic of the old glorious times, assured an Austrian diplomat that there is a possibility of providing the fellow-Orthodox Serbs and that general Bonaparte will be a logical choice because he knows everything about “these Turks”. After which he switched to one of his endless stories about his service with the late Suvorov and his vis-a-vis beat a hastily retreat wondering if fieldmarshal told the truth or is simply in one of his “peculiar” periods. Anyway, with Alexander was clearly indecisive, it looked like there was a window of opportunity, which may close within few months turning an easy military walk into a serious bloody war. All relevant information was duly and hastily reported to Vienna and Berlin and two squeaky and cumbersome military machines started moving.

Well, probably the diplomats in question (and a considerable part of the Russian Court) would be very surprised if somebody told them that a new emperor is a cold-blooded manipulating bastard who found that a charming appearance is a very convenient facade, especially in the foreign and military affairs. For the last few years he was appointed by his father to serve in the military reform commission of general Bonaparte so by 1805 two of them had a perfect understanding of each other and if Alexander trusted someone, this person was general Bonaparte because Russia was his only chance for a great career.

Of course, Alexander did not have any intention to give Austria and Prussia a free hand in Poland. Not too much because he truly believed in a sanctity of the treaties but because this move would be clearly detrimental to the Russian reputation (and power). Well, and because starting reign with a successful European war will be good for his own reputation as well. During a secret meeting of Alexander, Bonaparte, Barclay (recently promoted to the lieutenant general and made Minister of War) and Count Rumyantsev (to get international perspective) it was decided to keep Russian position unknown for as long as possible allowing Austria and Prussia to stick their necks as far as possible to simplify Russian and Swedish operations. Few recent years made Bonaparte a firm believer in a Russian soldier and the field kitchens and he never had any doubts about his own talents.

Gustav III was secretly informed about the plan and so far limited himself to strengthening defenses of the critical ports. Of course, the plan was more than a little bit cynical because it involved occupation of a big part of Poland by the enemy’s forces but who was going to care and why? The important thing would be let Poniatowski know in the last moment that his best strategy is going to be a retreat North enticing the invaders to follow. Well, and taking Frederick August with him to prevent an early capitulation.

Sultan Selim was promised a serious help with his military reforms (and mediation with the Serbs) and, to improve his personal security, Russian squadron led by “Ushak Pasha” arrived at Constantinople greeted by the Ottoman sailors and making the ill-advised moves by the Janissary and Ulema much less likely.

The Consulate had nothing against a friendly neutrality and giving Massena an important appointment on his native South was a good idea on more than one account, including being a legitimate way to provide him with an extra salary without it looking as a surrender to his never-ending complaints about shortage of money.



___________
[1] When there is no agreement among the comrades, their business will not go smoothly and nothing will come out of it, only aggravation.
[2] Clausewitz
[3] In OTL his plan for the Russian army in 1812 would led to the speedy and complete annihilation of the Russian armies but, in general, an idea of hitting at Napoleon’s communications was good and to a certain degree was implemented during the second part of 1812 campaign.
[4] Princess Gagarina in a letter to her husband.
[5] As in OTL

​

 

[Patukov]

The stage is set

Russia and co seem to hold the upper hand. But if nothing else, their enemies arent exactly pushovers

 

[alexmilman]

The stage is set

Russia and co seem to hold the upper hand. But if nothing else, their enemies arent exactly pushovers

Actually, the Prussians are and the Austrians of 1806 are not the same as in 1809.

 

[alexmilman]

175. War starts

“I have to decide by force of arms to implement the necessary measures that can provide My lands with peace within the state and lasting peace beyond. At this hour, I am fully aware of the importance of My decision and My responsibility to the Almighty. I comprehended and thought it over. With a good conscience, I enter the path that My duty points out to Me… And I believe that Almighty Lord will send down my victory to my weapons.”
Franz Joseph I, August 1914
“We will fight to the last drop of blood of every German soldier. And we will win, even if the whole world has become against us! No one has ever conquered a united Germany! Forward, with God, who protects us just as he kept our fathers!”
Wilhelm II, August 6, 1914
“We will no longer stand up only for an unjustly offended country related to us, but to protect the honor, dignity, integrity of Russia and its position among the great powers.”
Nicholas II, August 1914
“Let's bend the enemy into the lamb's horn! We have the guns and God is with us!”
O. Tumanyan “A drop of honey”
“You want a war? You’ll get it!”
Genghis Khan to Khwaresm Shah Mohammed​

1805.

With Russia seemingly out of the picture, there was no reason for the courts of Prussia and Austria procrastinate even if there was no common plan of actions and even no agreement regarding a scope of the future actions. There was a consensus regarding the PLC and a tentative agreement that if Saxony is not volunteers to interfere on the Polish side, it should be left alone. But Prussian government was hell-bent on the idea to attack Sweden: Danzig-Elblag enclave was a major pain in the posteriors seriously diminishing profits from the trade by Vistula and getting Stettin and Stralsund was an old dream of the rulers of Prussia, which so far had been denied by the Swedish-Russian alliance.
Even if Frederick William may had some doubts regarding a wisdom of going to war in general (“"I abhor war and... know of nothing greater on earth than the preservation of peace and tranquility as the only system suited to the happiness of human kind"), his hand was somewhat forced by his overly enthusiastic wife, Louise, who developed many ties to senior ministers and became a powerful figure within the government. Unlike her husband, the Prussian ministers had been rather bellicose and so was the queen.

Even more so were the military among whom the most popular figures were Friedrich Ludwig Fürst zu Hohenlohe-Ingelfingen

and general Ernst von Rüchel.

While their military talents could be questioned, their bravery and a willingness, if necessary, to try breaking a stone wall with a head [1] were beyond a. disputation and what else could one ask from Prussian general? Then, there were officers of the Prussian Gardes du Corps itching for action and looking for something more serious than an easy promenade across Poland. Surely, the very existence of the Swedish enclaves was a direct challenge to Prussia and must be dealt with. To make their position clear, officers of the Gardes du Corps staged an open provocation sharpening their swords on the steps of the Swedish embassy in Berlin. [2]

There was no reason for the further delays and in the early March the Prussian army marched forward with the Austrians forced to do the same few days later even if the initial plan was to start in May when what passed for the roads in Poland would dry out after the spring thawing.

Austrian and Prussian ultimatums had been sent to Warsaw and rejected after which declarations of war followed. Prussia declared war to Sweden as well. Saxony remained neutral.

The first Prussian action was siege of Stralsund defended by the Swedish governor Hans von Essen and 15,000 troops: three Finnish battalions, Pommeranian Landwehr garrison troops, one battalion of the King's Leib Infantry Regiment and one battalion of the Engelbrechten Infantry Regiment. There were 500 cannons in the fortress.

Without control of the island of Rügen, the Prussians were unable to interrupt Stralsund's sea communications and were harassed by Swedish gunboats so the whole affair consisted of building the investment lines and the regular skirmishes with shifting luck. Eventually, Essen found out that the besieging force is just 12,000 and smaller than his garrison. He launched what was later called “Great Sortie” in which Swedes suffered loss of less than 100 by dead and wounded while the Prussians lost 1,800 men only by captured and the war trophy captured by the Swedes had been worth more than 300,000 riksdaler banco. The siege was abandoned.

Ruchel with his corps marched on Elblag and Danzig. He had 15,000 troops and 40 field pieces. Altogether, there were 25 squadrons from five cavalry regiments, three foot jäger companies, 14 musketeer battalions from seven infantry regiments, four fusilier battalions, two grenadier battalions, three foot batteries, and two horse batteries. The siege artillery was expected to arrive from West Prussia as soon as enough heavy guns could be found in the former Polish cities. Without them and with a complete Swedish control of the sea he had to limit his activities to a simple blockade of Elblag.

Two main Prussian armies had been slowly moving through the sea of mud toward Warsaw.

The Austrians left the II Corps of 20,000 troops under Johann Kollowrat to besiege Cracow. The I Corps under Heinrich Graf von Bellegarde, consisting of 38,000, was to advance west of the Vistula toward Sandomierz with a task to secure crossing there and then match further North establishing defensive perimeter on the left bank of Vistula between Janowiec and the Pilica River and being prepared to cross the Vistula and advance toward the Bug River, if ordered. Center and Reserve, which included Hohenzollern’s III Corps, Rosenberg’s IV Corps and Lichtenstein’s I Reserve Corps, 66,000 total, was to advance west of the Vistula occupying Podlacia and Brest-Litowski. The right flank, under Prince Schwarzenberg, made up of the V Corps of Archduke Louis, Hiller’s VI Corps, and Kienmayer’s II Reserve Corps, a total of 61,000, was to occupy Wolyn and establish a defensive perimeter on the Styr River facing East to protect against a possible Russian attack. The main force on its right and the right flank on its left were going to be protected by the impassable Pinsk Marshes.

Short of the (presumably) short-term offsets with the sieges of Swedish ports and terrible dirt [3] that slowed marches to a crawl, everything was going seemingly well. Except for a rather annoying fact that the Poles had been stubbornly refusing to engage in anything but the minor skirmishes. After leaving garrisons in Cracow, Sandomierz and Warsaw , Poniatovski kept retreating North leaving the obvious question how far is he going to retreat? Is he going to go all the way to the Swedish Lithuania? Is he having an agreement with Russia about marching to the Russian Lithuania?

The news came that Frederick Augustus is with the Polish army while his wife, daughter and the Polish court made it all the way to the Swedish Mitava. There was no indication that he is ready to negotiate so how one is supposed to end a war?

The first alarming news came after 40,000 Swedish troops crossed the Nieman, seemingly marching toward Koenigsberg. This move was placing Ruchel with his 15,000 between 15,000 Swedes in Elblag-Danzig and those marching from the North. Blockade of Elblag was abandoned and he speedily marched toward Koenigsberg sending to the main army, which was still halfway to Warsaw, couriers with the requests for help but not expecting too much because Brunswick’s army was too far away.

On a march he got even more depressing news: a naval squadron, which arrived to block an entry to the Vistula Lagoon and had been bombarding Pillau with noticeable success, included numerous Russian cannon boats.

By the time Ruchel’s advance troops reached Koenigsberg, Pillau was already taken by a sea-born attack and the port was completely blocked from the sea. At best, there was a hope that it may be possible to defend Koenigsberg and a line of the Pregel River until the reinforcements arrive. In the worst case scenario, the East Prussia would have to be temporarily evacuated. Well, this would be not the first time and not catastrophic. The Swedish force was obviously too small to stand up to the main Prussian army so it is only a matter of time when the Swedes will retreat back to Courland.



___________
[1] In OTL he arrived at Jena with 15,000 troops and 40 guns when the battle was pretty much over (which was not his fault and, anyway, Hohenlohe did not have too much of a chance against superior numbers led by Napoleon ) and advanced his corps with both flanks in the air. Being, predictably, attacked on both flanks, Rüchel's troops were ridden over and sent fleeing to the rear in irretrievable rout. Allegedly, before this tactical masterpiece he issued a “historic” sentence: “I’m not looking to the right or to the left, I’m marching forward and attacking the enemy.” To be fair, the idiocy of that type was not limited to the Prussians circa 1806. In a Soviet movie made in 1942, commander of Red Army’s tank regiment upon receiving information that his regiment is surrounded, makes Ruchel’s-style decision of going forward. The results are left out of a movie but probably the Germans would just clear a road waiting until regiment runs out of gas. 😂
[2] In OTL, it was French Embassy.
[3] “For Poland God invented the fifth element, the dirt.” Napoleon.

 

[Patukov]

So much for an easy war

Also, shouldnt it be 1805 instead of 1705 at the top right below the quotes?

 

[McAuslan_in_the_Rough]

So much for an easy war

Also, shouldnt it be 1805 instead of 1705 at the top right below the quotes?

Perhaps Lomonosov has built a time machine?

 

[Kriss]

Wow, way to go Prussia!!! They even gave Alex the excuse to join in and leave everyone wondering if he would have stayed neutral if it was just Poland getting attacked! Such a complex character, that Alex.

Otherwise Prussia will be in need of some serious punishment .

 

[alexmilman]

So much for an easy war

Also, shouldnt it be 1805 instead of 1705 at the top right below the quotes?

Oops. 😢

 

[alexmilman]

176. The law of unintended consequences

“The law of unintended consequences is a frequently-observed phenomenon in which any action has results that are not part of the actor's purpose.. .in the worst-case scenario, … the desired results fail to materialize and there are negative consequences that make the original problem worse”
Ivy Wigmore
«География - наука не дворянская»
Фонвизин ‘Недоросль’ [1]
«Пока живут на свете дураки,
Обманом жить нам, стало быть, с руки»
Б. Окуджава [2]​

1805, May

Poland.
By the mid-May the advancing allies [3] reached the line of the Pregel and Narew rivers with the Polish army being almost completely squeezed from the native territory and the Swedes prudently retreating across the Neman.

Prussians. In a deep Prussian rear none of the Swedish ports was taken even if blockade of Elblag and Danzig had been restored with Ruchel’s force being strengthened to 20,000. Warsaw was still under the siege but its fall obviously was just a matter of time. The main army of the Duke of Brunswick (with a King and his “war cabinet” attached) of 55, 000 was located along the Pregel River and an army of Hohenloe, now only 30,000, placed at the right angle on its right flank between Goldap and Rajgrod on a border of Vojvodship of Trock. Part of the initial force was assigned to the garrisons and siege of Warsaw. There was also a deficiency in effective strength of approximately 20,000 men, “which can be easily explained by considering the system of recruiting and the desertions which followed; the prescribed strengths were rarely obtained, … and that it had been necessary to leave in rear areas the many sick which the army had at the time of mobilization. The rapid and unaccustomed marches had slightly increased the number of sick; finally in view of the lack of practice in war and its strenuousness, the regiments had a great number of detached men who being on special duties...” [4]

Austrians. The II Corps finally achieved surrender of Cracow and was ordered to occupy the rest of the vojvodship. The I Corps, as ordered, occupied Sandomierz vojvodship and now got an order to provide garrison for Lublin and secure crossings on the Wieprz River. The III Corps was in Brest-Litowsk and the IV Corps and I Reserve Corps were in Podlacia. The right flank, V, VI and II Reserve Corps, was, as per plan, occupying Wolyn. Archduke Charles established his headquarters in Drohiczyn on the Bug River.

March across most of the Polish territory during the early spring months was exhausting and both armies needed rest and food both for the people and horses. The huge supply trains had been slowly making their way through the bad roads and the local supplies were scarce even in the East Prussia. Losses of the horses were not catastrophic but they, especially those of the artillery and supply trains, had been exhausted and better not to be used before getting back into shape.

With the Polish army being in a full retreat and only few cavalry parties operating along the front, giving troops a rest was a prudent thing to do and a pause in the operations could be used for the diplomatic activities as well. After all, wouldn’t Frederick Augustus want to get back a part of his kingdom and Gustav III should see that he may easily lose not just Samogitia (who cares) but also Memel and Courland. At least this was Prussian vision of the situation. Archduke Charles was, typically, much more cautious in his views but so far there was no obvious reason for worrying: the known enemies were in a full retreat and the Austrian diplomats in Moscow still were quite optimistic about the Russian preference for peace. The latest piece of news was that Emperor Alexander left for St. Petersburg with the intention to met King Gustav and offer Russian mediation in a conflict between him and the King of Prussia, which he declared to be an obvious misunderstanding within the “Baltic family”. When the Austrian ambassador asked Count Rumyantsev about situation in Poland, the Russian Foreign Minister with a pretended naivete countered with “what this meeting has to do with Poland?”. So the Eastern flank was seemingly secure and, with a new Russian monarch clearly looking for the laurels of a peacemaker, probably the whole thing will end soon with a favorable peace.

However, the idyll did not last for long. On May 5th Russian officer appeared at the outpost of the Austrian IV Corps near Rajgrod delivering to the commander officer two sealed envelops one of which had been addressed to Archduke Charles and another to the Duke of Brunswick. No explanation had been given. Both messages reached their addressees the next day and both commanders in chief found out that as of the May 1st there is a state of war between the Russian Empire and Austria and Prussia. Even more disconcerting news, at least for Charles, was brought by a messenger from the III Corps reporting that the Russians, in the numbers unknown, are approaching Kobryn. It looks like they are coming from Pinsk, which is impossible because it means that they crossed the impassable Pinsk Marshes. Anyway, as of right now the III Corps had been facing the significant odds, could not hold at Brest-Litowsk was pushed Southward toward Lukow leaving a gap between the troops in Podlacia and Schwarzenberg’s forces in Wolyn.

Interlude.
A little bit of a geography. The Pinsk Marshes mostly lie within the Polesian Lowland, and occupy most of the southern part of Belarus and the north-west of Ukraine. They cover roughly 269,400 square kilometres (104,000 sq mi) surrounding the sandy lowlands of the dense network of rivers and rivulets forming on both sides of the Pripyat River, one of the main tributaries of the Dnieper. Dense woods are interspersed with numerous marshes, moors, ponds and streams extending 480 kilometres (300 mi) west to east and 225 kilometres (140 mi) north to south.

By reputation the marshes were virtually impassable to major military forces. [5]

In 1802 major Karl von Toll was given by general Bonaparte a task to conduct reconnaissance of the Pinsk Marshes and to provide a report on how they could be crossed. A permanent road across the region, if practically possible, would be the best option. Required resources are not going to be an issue but the plan, whatever it is going to be, has to be implemented in no more than two years. A reward will be proportional to the success. Being one of the best engineer officers in the Russian army and extremely ambitious, Toll was not wasting time. In less than half a year construction of a road Mozur-Pinsk started. The design was rather complex: two layers of logs, then "road cover" - firewood and soil, peat. Ditches on both sides for drainage. The main road was going North of the river and a narrower and longer one was going South of it forking at Stolyn to provide a way to Wolyn between the Styr and Horyn rivers.
The Prypet river, along which a new road was going, had been used as an additional transportation artery with the banks strengthened, jetties built and extra canals digged out to improve communications and minimize effect of the floods. Less reliable, but still suitable for the infantry with reasonably light train, causeways had been built more or less parallel to the main roads. Few warehouses had been built in the small towns on Prypet’s banks.

As a bonus, there was Oginski Canal connecting Pinsk with the Neman River.

Construction did not attract too much of an unnecessary attention because it was known as an attempt to dry out some of the marshes territory making it suitable for agriculture. Anyway, with the firmly established reputation of the marshes, an idea of the road construction simply was not considered seriously.

Major von Toll was awarded order of St. Anne 2nd degree with the diamonds [6] and an assignment as quartermaster general to the commander-in-chief in a coming campaign.

St. Petersburg. Emperor Alexander really travelled to St.Petersburg to meet King Gustav III but, of course, purpose of their meeting was different from one disclosed to the diplomatic corps in Moscow: it was to discuss the general political and diplomatic aspects of a war, and to stage a “historic event”, meeting of two allies pledging their help to the King of Poland who (surprise, surprise) also conveniently was there expressing everything that he was expected to express. As far as the theatricals had been involved, Alexander was even better (or worse, depending upon how you are viewing it) than his favorite general. Of course, “Think of it, soldiers; from the summit of these pyramids, forty centuries look down upon you…” was something rather hard to beat (even because the Russian history specifically and European in general had been considerably shorter) but surely meeting of three rulers under these dramatic circumstances would warrant some paintings, literary works and general public excitement. It should also greatly improve the Polish attitudes toward Russia making future “problems” less likely but this specific consideration Alexander preferred to keep to himself.

The scene was set in the best theatrical traditions with the dramatic speeches and appreciative audience. Of course, by the time of the now “historical” meeting, declarations of war already had been sent and the troops were already on a march. As far as the declarations were involved, diplomatic protocol was severely breached but such trifle did not matter under the circumstances.

Italy. Trieste.

Rather unexpectedly for pretty much everybody, a Russian-Ottoman squadron of 30 warships appeared at Trieste’s harbor and, after informing authorities that, regrettably, Austria and Russia are now in a state of war. There was no significant Austrian garrison in the city and few small Austrian warships did not even try a fruitless resistance. The city was forced to pay contribution, the custom house and other Austrian official buildings was destroyed but otherwise no harm had been done. Soon enough the schema was repeated with Venice. “Ushak Pasha” established his base in Ragusa (Ottoman vassal) and commerce on the Adriatic came to almost complete stop.

__________

[1] “Geography is not a science appropriate for the nobility” Fonvizin “The Minor”
[2] “As long as there are fools, we can live by deception” B.Oudzava
[3] Just in an unlikely case of somebody being confused, Austria and Prussia. 😉
[4] Clausewitz “The Jena campaign”.
[5] Which in OTL did not prevent the Third Army Corps of the Imperial Russian Army to get through them before the Austro-Hungarian Second Army's transfer from Serbia was complete. In 1944 units of both the Red Army and Wehrmacht passed through them, partially building the ad hoc roads. The first “regular” roads from Pinsk to the South had been constructed in mid-XVIII by a Polish noble Mathew Butrimovich financed by Michael Oginski.
[6] Formally, the orders had just degrees but getting one with the the diamonds was a higher (and visible) honor. Below are St.Anne 2nd degree “standard” and with the diamonds.

 

[dunHozzie]

There is fucked, there is badly fucked, there is clusterfuck and then there is this. I almost feel sorry for the Austrians & Prussians.

 

[alexmilman]

There is fucked, there is badly fucked, there is clusterfuck and then there is this. I almost feel sorry for the Austrians & Prussians.

The key word is “almost”. 😜

 

[St. Just]

Uh oh Germans -- you have fucked up now!

 

[Kriss]

it was to discuss the general political and diplomatic aspects of a war, and to stage a “historic event”, meeting of two allies pledging their help to the King of Poland who (surprise, surprise) also conveniently was there expressing everything that he was expected to express.

Well i would say that Sweden particularly didn't have as much choice here, so when Russian forgein minister said this isn't about Poland he wasn't lying, Alex is rushing to help both Poland and Sweden .

Otherwise regarding Polish King, he was well remember in Poland , so he was either genuine , or really a good propaganda master, in which case he is probably putting up a good show in Saint Petersburg (and Poland is slowly realizing that trying to play great powers against each other won't work and that it needs more secure alliances/patrons).


Otherwise regarding Prussia and Austria i assume that they assumed that Russia will realize it's folly and ditch Ottomans and Sweden in their favor in face of overwhelming power, or something for which i can't technically blame them, Russia still isn't seen as proper great power so trying to be their equal didn't sit well , plus signs were there, new Emperor's silence regarding Austro/Prussian moves against Poland and Sweden and earlier hints about helping the Serbs (from not so reliable source), guess expectation were that Russia will realize that it can't defy the great powers and that earlier victories were just a fluke (using Austro/Prussian weakness from 7 years war to impose unfavorable partition of PLC and then not joining the coalition against France to build a good will).

I assume what Austria and Prussia expected was Russo-Swedish alliance breaking after this and Russia opting for Prussia as it's main Baltic ally and a new war against Sweden for Baltic province's, plus a helping hand to Vienna in the Balkans as recompense and for freedom of fellow Orthodox people ( under Austria ).

So this came as quite surprise , especially the Ottoman's being in coalition and Russia crossing uncrossable swamp, but Austria/Prussia should still be able to win this if they try hard enough, their enemies are quasi European power, Asian power ,failed state and only real European power isn't match for them.

But anyway that's the news from Austrian and Prussian court's , the defeat here will will probably completely change European politics and make Russia a full fledged Great European power that is to be taken seriously , on second hand Prussia is in for a hard year's, i thought Austria will be in trouble but Prussia attacked Sweden so Sweden will want a harsh peace to put it down (for a time) , treaty of Titlist (at least financial equivalent) is coming!