No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

The basic problem with all of the above is that Russian domestic market was far from being saturated and it was much more easier to make money on selling all types of the manufactured products in it than by exporting these products. In this specific case what would be incentive for exporting locomotives in big numbers to Spain when they could be easily sold within Russia avoiding the transportation expenses?
Poland and Hungary are just across the border and are parts of the Russian “extended market” economically and politically. Spain is on the other side of Europe, it is more or less French client (or partner) with very limited political and economic links to Russia. Now, if we assume that Russia is getting aggressively (as in “on a large scale”) involved outside its more or less established zone of political and commercial interests, wouldn’t this result in souring relations with France due to the resulting competition?

Yea those made sense, i was thinking about places for Russia to expand its economic reach but as of now Spain isn't as profitable as domestic market (or near abroad), nor is it worth diplomatic trouble.


But why the whole Spanish subject?

It was a long standing subject, but then again Russian economic and geopolitical interests don't have much to do with final Spanish/American resolution.

I already told you while ago that sometimes you are thinking so alike me that it is scary. 😂

Generally i given that Russian Bank's are in better state, Russian empire being more lucrative financial market and Rotchild family already going around Europe, plus different European dynamics i assumed that Amschel will want one of his son's in such up and coming financial capital, then the fact that Russian banking is in it's infancy and would need skilled hand and i couldn't think of better opportunity.

Then i just had to look into which family member was available and Carl was the head of Naples branch (that got closed otl anyway) .
 
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With AII in charge
247. With AII in charge

“Our Russian liberal is first of all a footman and only looks for how to clean someone's boots.”
Dostoevsky
A liberal is a conservative who had not been mugged”
General wisdom
You see, Count, on the one hand, in fact, if the Minister of Railways is a decent person and if he knows his business, then, of course, no committee is needed, because it is a well-known obstacle for the minister's activities, and on the other hand, since we have railways, I have not seen or remember a single Minister of Railways who had been competent and respected. Under such conditions, of course, it is better to manage by the board, that is, the railway council, than the Minister of Railways.”
Witte to Loris-Melikov regarding creation of the Railroad Council​



Russia post 1860.
OTL reference. What was written earlier about Dzungaria is not “piano in the bushes”. In OTL starting from the late XIX Russia was paying a lot of attention to Xinjiang region and was conducting extensive trade there. After the RCW the Soviet government continued this policy and while the proposal regarding an outright annexation was rejected, a lot of effort had been made to maintain rule of a governor who was a Soviet puppet and allowed exploitation of the local natural resources in exchange for weapons and outright military support. During the Muslim uprising, in 1931 the local governor signed a treaty with the Soviet Union granting extensive trade privileges in exchange for the military help (illegality seemingly did not bother either side). Situation ended up in a seemingly bizarre way: pro-Soviet Chinese provincial government had been using the Whites as their enforcement instrument. Presumably, in the late 1940s the Soviets exported the local beryllium for their nuclear project.

AII inherited the empire and now was trying to reconcile the prevailing realities with his generally liberal inclinations, which was not quite easy because majority of the population was rather conservative and because a result of application of some of the internationally fashionable ideas to the Russian conditions was not quite clear to the interested sides. Or sometimes attitude was quite clear and it was negative.
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His freshly appointed Minister of Finances, Michael von Reutern, was a sincere, competent and liberal person acting with the best intentions possible but with the mixed results.

His strict adherence to the financial discipline, consolidation of state’s financial activities and openness of the budget information as a tool for winning the public trust and cutting the waste was bringing the positive results strengthening ruble and increasing budgetary surplus.
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He was an outspoken proponent of the extensive railroad construction and it was going at a high rate but the problems started to show. His idea was to lessen burden upon the state by incentivizing private development. To attract capital to the industry he guaranteed 5% profits for the railroad companies (meaning that if company is getting less, the Treasury compensates the difference).With a noble goal of stimulating the private industries he privatized some of the state-owned railroads but the main problem was that he failed to establish the country-wide standards of the railroads construction and exploitation and this was creating the countless problems and inefficiencies of the whole system. The same goes for an absence of the uniform tariffs. An idea of backing up the construction with the state financial guarantees more often then not was producing the speculations and government’s need to subsidize the private railroads. The attempt to remove the monopolies and replace them with a public ownership of the railroads also failed.

However, the private railroad companies multiplied and construction kept going on. In 1861-1873, 53 railway companies with a share capital of 698.5 million rubles emerged in the country, and in general, more than 60% of the share capital of the 1860s in Russia was accounted for by railway transport. In 1868-1872, the average annual length of laying new lines was 1913.8 km/year, in 1873-1877 - 1,305.6 km/year.

Situation with the railroads had not been helped by the fact that the Minister of Transportation (a brand new Ministry), general Melnikov, while being an outstanding military engineer, a specialist in canals construction, river transportation, fortifications, and a great proponent of the railroads (he wrote a book “Regarding the railroads” advocating their construction in Russia), author of the project of Moscow-St.Petersburg RR, etc., was not a commercial person and had no idea how to organize a proper integration and exploitation of the Russian railroads. Admittedly, this complicated task was made even more complicated by privatization of some of the state-owned railroads and an absence of the mandatory common rules for private RR companies. As a result, each of these companies had been operating as a mini-state with its own bureaucracy creating a lot of a paperwork and following its own rules.

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Introduced program of guaranteed at least 5% profit to the private railroad companies, while stimulating investments into their construction, had drawbacks. Railway tariffs were not regulated by the state. Railroads competed with each other, reduced tariffs, which sometimes led to unprofitable traffic. Roads were not particularly concerned about this, because their profitability was guaranteed by the state, and the railway budget deficit was covered by state funds.

When one unprofitable road applies for compensation from the treasury, it may not be so scary. But when there are a lot of them, there is not enough money for everyone. Large companies immediately realized what to do in this situation: access to the budget could give access to the first person. In the conditions of the monarchy - to the emperor. They began to invite relatives of the emperor and high government dignitaries to the boards of directors of their companies, as well as their relatives, who, thanks to their connections, periodically received not only favorable contracts, loans for the companies patronized by them, but also decisions to pay debts at the expense of the treasury and other ways of "privatizing profits and nationalizing losses". Sometimes, the Emperor himself was ordering to transfer specific state-owned railroads to the private persons. As a result, the well-intended Reutern’s stimulus policy changed the entire system of incentives in the industry: you do not need to try to please the consumer, you need to please the official. It is the proximity to the official, the proximity to the vertical of power that becomes the main competitive advantage. In other words, he created crony capitalism.

Reutern’s support of the private financial institutions was producing almost immediate positive results not only helping to expand a number of all types of the domestic financial institutions but influencing House of Rothschild to create its Russian branch. After this “sign of approval” creation of the banks with the mixed Russian and foreign capital started picking up. Another trend was a growing merge of the industrial and financial capital. So far, the prevailing pattern was opening of the credit institutions by the successful industrialists but in the case of Rothschild it was other way around: it heavily invested into construction of the railroad from Baku to the Black Sea. However, the regulations aimed to avoid creation of the purely speculative credit institutions failed with the few resulting crisises along the way.

Lowering and then cancelling the export tariffs caused over 1 million of the state loss of a revenue but did benefit the Russian exports.

In the area of reforming taxation his record was mostly bad, which was not a big surprise taking the general situation with the land ownership and a failure of the cadaster effort. But outside the rural area he was more successful. The poll tax from the city population was replaced in 1863 by a tax on real estate. He also increased taxation on the small businesses with the predictable detrimental results.
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Replacing of the liquor monopolies with the excise tax was a good idea but its initial implementation (4 kopecks per 1% of alcohol content) proved to be too low and resulted in the increased drunkenness and had to be increased. The excise taxes on tobacco and sugar had been increased more than once hurting both the domestic consumers and Russian export of these products to China. He even tried to establish excise tax on the kerosine but it was done so irrationally and hurting kerosine production and trade so much that within few years it had been abolished. Switching from the salt monopoly to excise was good for the Treasury but salt became more expensive, etc.

His attempt to follow the popular trend and abolish the import tariffs produced such an outcry that it was dead upon arrival. Of course, AII wanted to be “modern” but OTOH being Russian liberal he subconsciously despised his subjects and an argument that they can’t compete with the West on equal terms sounded quite appealing.

On a cheerful side, the newly established zemstvos were seemingly quite popular even if as often as not inefficient in their assigned functions. But step by step they were establishing the locally-funded medical and educational services and from time to time some of their infrastructure projects did not turn into the complete disasters. The good part, from Alexander’s perspective, was that while the successes were one way or another credited to him (as the enabler of these institutions), the failures and inefficiencies were usually blamed on zemstvo itself.

After his father’s attempt to deal with a black hole called “rural community” failed, Alexander tried to make a small step by limiting community size to a single village: traditionally, many of them had been reflecting realities of the old landownership and as a result a community can include a number of villages or a part of a village (quite often the villages had been split between few owners). This step was remarkably successful: it did not face any resistance to talk about and seriously simplified state’s communication with the free communities. This reform also included taxation system: traditional one was considering “communal responsibility” on the case per case basis from “volost” (rural district) level and down to the “community” level creating a terrible mess in the process of tax collection and allowing a great opportunity for tax evasion or underpayment (often with the connivance of the local administration) while the new one lowered the taxed unit strictly to the single village level greatly restricting the chances for cheating.

But there was still a boogeyman called “serfdom”. It already shrunk to below 10% of the rural population but still was a popular subject for the Russian “progressives” including those of them who still lived off the income from their serfdom-based estates. The most vocal one was Alexander Herzen who comfortably established himself in London, publishing a very progressive magazine “The Bell” (using income from his estate) but not even considering to release his own serfs.

Emotions aside, by that time the serfdom became a very tricky issue. The owner’s rights to sell his serfs without a land had been gone. Ditto for the right to act as their judge, except for the minor misdemeanors, and to send them to Siberia bypassing the official judicial framework. The corvee was regulated long ago by Emperor Paul. The military service, while being formally universal, was not so in a reality because Russian Empire did not need that many reserves. This left a serf owner with certain power of choosing the recruits but this right also had been restricted by the explicit rules for the candidates and, after his service was over, the former soldier was becoming a free man and the same applied to his wife and children. Also, he was getting his house and the land allotment. Which meant that the most probably candidates would be the young unmarried men who did not yet got their own household and still lived with their families. To a big degree the system still existed in the cases when both sides.

The estate owner, if he was of a “lazy” type, was renting all his agricultural land to the serfs being paid either by cash or by a share of the product. He could additionally charge for using his forest, pastures, etc. As a result, such a landowner survived without possessing any agricultural tools of his own. He also had the house servants who had been working for food, clothes and lodgings (on a down side, he could not fire them and had to take some care of them till their death). On their side of a bargain, the peasants were getting a land for which they did not have to pay and from which they could not be evicted and there was a hope of putting some of the burdensome family members into the landlord’s household.

More active owners could use advanced techniques on his own fields (and help serfs to improve productivity of their allotments) by hiring the workers and/or he could establish the mills, sawmills, etc. and charge for the services.

Anyway, due to the fact that estate owners belonged to a noble class, the peasants tended to consider them a better protection against administrative activities than community itself.

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Plus, quite a few well-off peasants considered the whole issue of the land ownership as preposterous. To quote one of them (K. Petukhov, elected “starosta” of a village, a successful and literate peasant who even published a brochure reflecting his views):

Prove that it [the land] is your own... Who was owning it, and to whom, and when did you pay money when bought it, and whether you have a plan and an ownership title on your land. It turns out that no, and there is that land is of your lord, and he has a title on it from the Treasury... And don't stretch out your paw to get someone else's property, the land was lord's, so it will be.”

His arguments were well accepted by the “serious” heads of the families because their own well-being strongly depended upon the tradition. Petukhov himself was a typical head of such a family: it included 37 people who lived in two houses, had undivided property and was well off. As a patriarch of a family, Petukhov was pretty much its authoritarian ruler. The decisive voices in the village assembly were those of the family heads like himself both because they were clearly successful and because each of them had been backed by his family. Their life position was rather straightforward: “work hard, mind your business, listen only to what was said in the Church or by their landlord or by the government’s officials and ignore the ‘not serious people’”. The latest category also included the foreigners, unless they were state officials. “The German laws are not our business: do their peasants have or do not have land, how this is our concern? … They have their own ruler and we have our Orthodox Tsar Alexander Nicholaevich. He is God on Earth and the source of light and truth for the Orthodox people.”
Any disruption of a system could disrupt order in their own little empires. So, unless there was an order “from above”, they were quite comfortable as they were and did not care for emancipation or any such nonsense.

None of these considerations did bother the radicals both because it was a matter of principle and because they knew better then the peasants. If the “traditionalists” like Herzen were clamoring for the reforms, the younger (and poorer) writers of the younger generation, like Dobrolubov and Chernyshevsky, were clamoring for the revolution. Needless to say that neither of them had any first hand familiarity with the peasants’ life but this did not prevent them from getting popular beyond their literal talents (none) or sensibility of the ideas they preached.
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As a side note, while Dobrolubov lived only 28 years, he managed to come with something that was making miserable the generations of the Soviet schoolchildren. By the reasons unknown he declared personage of a popular drama as “a sunbeam in the tsardom of darkness” and, because Lenin (who did not have any literary taste whatsoever) elevated him into the rank of the great literary critic, for many decades the kids had been suffering trying to explain why this foolish, superstitious (and sex-starving) woman qualifies as a “sunbeam”. 😢


Well, all these issues were, so far, rather routine with a limited impact on the empire’ “traditional” course in domestic and foreign policies. Alexander, whatever were his inclinations, was not a fool and so far was restricting activities of his subordinates by the favored Russian caveat: “within reasonable limits”.

Unfortunately, the new issues came to the existence which could not be easily resolved by the traditional policies and methods.

The first of them was Caucasus border. For many decades the system of the border fortifications and the “natural borders” worked reasonably well but the “natives” who lived along the Russian border had been growing increasingly unrestful.

Those on the Black Sea side, the “Circassians” (actually, a set of the various tribes without any notion of a statehood) after the Ottoman Empire officially abandoned slavery in 1846 had been deprived of one of their major sources of income and trade with Russia never was extensive. And the tribes needed money because their weapons were getting noticeably obsolete and the more modern ones could be bought but not produced locally. The same goes for many household items except for the locally made rugs, clothes, cold weapons, etc. Of course, there were Abkhazians and further Georgians on the South but they were not much better off. Looting the Ottoman coastal cities was, of course, a possibility but it would cut off their trade altogether. The only good things about the whole situation was that these tribes were not united and that the Ottomans were not too eager to support them. Not a big surprise because, while the Ottomans considered them as the vassals, the Circassian tribes did not think so except in the strictly religious area, acknowledging Sultan’s spiritual authority as a Caliph. Anyway, the raids across the Russian border had been increasing in numbers and the traditional system of the cordon defenses proved to be inadequate unless a much bigger military force had been permanently placed along the Kuban River.

The “center”, Kabarda annexed by Russia, was quiet and its southern neighbors, the Osetians, too weak to become a serious nuisance.
On the Eastern side the Chechens found themselves squeezed on three sides by the Russian territories while having the Persian vassals, Georgians, on the South and being mostly pushed to the mountains from the fertile lowlands.

Of course, there was nothing new there but year by year situation was changing to the worse and from the 1840s there was an escalated border fighting because the tribes of Chechnya and Dagestan had been united under Imam Shamil. [1] Problem was the same as on the Western flank: the containment policy ceased to be effective.

All these developments had been quite distressful for AII, especially taking into the account that they did not quite fit into the intended liberal agenda. But, upon the due consideration that, as was convincingly proven by the Brits, dealing with the barbarian natives had nothing to to with the liberal agenda because they are simply not civilized enough to understand the liberal values (whatever these values could be). His consciousness thus being absolutely clear, Alexander ordered the newly-created General Staff to start planning the pacification operations on the Caucasus.


_________
[1] In OTL he surrendered in 1859 but ITTL the events on the Caucasus are delayed.
 
Implementation of the wishes
248. Implementation of the wishes

“When you want something done you find a way. Otherwise you find an excuse”
General wisdom
Let all your wishes come true”
Chinese curse [1]
“What is that you truly desire?”
‘Lucifer’
“We couldn't retreat from the business we started just because the Circassians didn't want to submit. It was necessary to exterminate half of the Circassians to force the other half to lay down their weapons.”
Berger, "Eviction of highlanders from the Caucasus"
What right do these savages have to live on such a beautiful land?”
General Sleptsov
To resettle to wherever they are being ordered, or to move to Turkey, within a month”
Alexander II, 1861​


In 1861 the Ottoman Sultan Abdulmedjid died to be succeeded by his brother, Abdulaziz. Abdulaziz received an Ottoman education but was nevertheless an ardent admirer of the material progress that was made in the West.
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He continued the Tanzimat reforms started by his brother establishing the new administrative districts, organizing education based on the French model [2], started building up the Ottoman Navy and was a talented classical music composer. In other words, he was as progressive a liberal as was practical for the Ottoman Sultan. Small wonder that when the Russian Ruling Liberal began communicating with the Ottoman Ruling Liberal they easily found a common language and results had been, predictably, really scary.

Now, look at the map below (of course, the borders on it are seriously wrong but it contains some vital information). Let’s start from the Caspian coast on the East [3].
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You can easily identify Baku by the “oil” icon and the line going along the coast toward the North and then to the West is a railroad (in a process of construction) by which the oil is going to be transported to Novorossiysk. The greenish area limited by the dots is Chechen Imamate ruled by Shamil. As you can see, the railroad is going to pass within a close proximity to the Imamate and, to add to the equation, the big deposits of oil just had been discovered just to the North of the Imamate territory. Now, taking into an account the type of relations between the Russian Empire and the Imamate and the general ideas of the XIX century Chechens regarding the trade relations [4], who in his right senses would subject the growingly important industry to the obvious risks? So, this part of the equation was obvious and solution was vary straightforward because no third parties had been involved. The Imamate was invaded.
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For a while the locals held on hiding in the forests and fortified places in the mountains and ambushing the small parties of the invading troops and even gave few battles (which they tended to lose) but the systematic destruction of all auls (villages) showing any sign of resistance combined with the general bribes to his subordinates proved to be quite effective:
“The people hurried in crowds with obedience from all sides. The commander-in-chief gently received the conquered and made generous gifts. Everyone was seized by his generosity, which they did not see at Shamil's, and hurried to come with obedience to get a gift. They forgot Shamil and the oath given to him, seized by gold and silver, and even more promises to protect them from violence and oppression.”
Some areas simply rebelled: Shamil’s rule had been quite oppressive and they were expecting a better treatment from the Russians.
The Avars said: We've been gnawing Shamil's iron for sixteen years, waiting for you to reach out to us. Now his kingdom has come to an end.”

Shamil was losing the territory and finally was surrounded in the last fortress, Gunib (Гуниб), high in the mountains of Dagestan and after it was stormed had to capitulate.
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After his capture Shamil was treated well. He met with AII, visited Moscow and attended a ballet performance in Bolshoi Theater, then went to St.Petersburg where he met AII again after which he was sent to live in Kaluga. On August 26, 1866, in the ceremonial hall of the Kaluga Provincial Noble Assembly, Shamil, together with his sons Gazi-Mukhammad and Muhammad-Shapi, swore an oath of allegiance to Russia. In the same year, Shamil was a guest at the wedding of Tsarevich Alexander, at the same time the third meeting with the emperor takes place. On August 30, 1869, by the highest decree, Shamil was elevated to a hereditary nobility. Emperor Alexander II awarded Shamil a pension of 10,000 rubles in silver per year (then increased to 15,000 rubles). In 1868 he moved to Kiev. On February 16, 1869, Alexander II allowed him to go to Mecca for a pilgrimage. On May 12, Shamil and his family left Kiev. On May 19, he arrived in Istanbul. On November 16, he took part in the opening of navigation on the Suez Canal. On November 20, he arrived in Mecca. At the end of March 1870, after the Hajj, Shamil visited Medina, where he died on February 4 (16), 1871.
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Prince Baryatinsky, Russian commander-in-chief, was made a fieldmarshal.

Now, this was a relatively nice part comparing to what was going to happen on the Black Sea side. Quite a few factors contributed to what was going to happen there.

Abdulaziz:
  • Formally, the “Circassians” (Adyghe) were subjects of the Porte of which fact they were generally unaware and, when pointed to it, tended to take it as a joke, which was humiliating for the Sultan’s dignity. The OE simply did not have resources to enforce its sovereignty claim because logistics of such operation would be terrible but it could not just declare that for now on they are on their own because this also will be humiliating.
  • The “Circassians” did not have any semblance of a statehood, which means that any treaty with them would be pretty much impossible.
  • The main economic reason for the Ottomans to deal with them were slaves, especially the young local girls who had been highly valued in the harems. The locals were so poor that quite often these girls had been sold by their own families. Second category were the male slaves captured during the raids (another Circassians, Russians, Georgians, Abkhazians, etc.). When slavery was abolished in OE, this trade dwindled to the illegal trickle which could not pass through the Ottoman-held ports making them just a burden for the Sultan’s Treasure. But, again, they could not be just abandoned without loss of a face.
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  • On the coast just to the South from that line of the forts was Princedom of Abkhazia with the Ottoman-built and held ports. It was protecting the Ottoman Western Georgia (vassal states of Megrelia, Imeretia, Ottoman province of Adjaria) and it was a mess in all possible aspects. Formally, there was a ruling princely family, Shereashidze, but it did not have too much of a power, to put it mildly: there were countless lesser princes who were closely linked to the peasant families over which they were, at least in theory, ruling and neither them nor the peasants cared too much about the top prince. There was no feudal land ownership in Abkhazia, and free communities (anhai) accounted for 2/3 of the country's population. In other words, serfdom did not exist here as such, unlike Georgia and Megrelia. Anyway, the local “supreme” princes had been trying to maneuver between the Ottomans, who were their formal masters, and Russia with the resulted regular civil wars overlapping with the routine non-political wars between the feudals who also, from time to time had been appealing to Russia for protection. Taking into an account that the Abkhazians had been subdivided to the numerous self-identified minor nations who also had been regularly quarreling with each other, situation was a total mess which was going on for many decades and had a negative impact upon the neighboring Ottoman vassal states and provinces. So far, both Ottoman and Russian policies toward Abkhazia were not clearly defined. The Ottomans had been active there in the XVI century but since then seemingly lost most of the interest limiting themselves to maintaining garrisons in the coastal fortresses and buying the local tobacco and fruits. Russian Empire was avoiding a direct involvement but, in a view of unclear Ottoman position, from time to time provided some material support to some princes. [5]
  • Abdulaziz wanted to put Abkhazia under unequivocal and effective Ottoman control.
  • He also wanted to solve the “Circassian problem” by eliminating the humiliating situation with unrecognized overlordship, cutting expenses on the useless coastal posts and getting as a compensation some considerable amount of money to spend on building the navy,

Alexander:
  • Wanted to secure the western part of the Baku-Novorossyisk RR.
  • The Cossacks of Kuban had been very envious of the good agricultural land across the river and part of the area they were presently holding had an unhealthy climate resulting in a high death rate.
  • Annexation of the “Circassian” territory with the removal of population (or at least a big part of it) would allow to save the big sums of money which had been spent annually on maintaining the fortified line along the border.
  • “Pacification” of the Caucasus and acquisition of a sizable chunk of a territory could boost his popularity at home.
  • Wanted to do it all legally and with a good excuse.
In other words, two great liberal minds had been thinking alike, which meant that the “Circassians” were going to be in a very serious trouble. The only stumbling stone on the first stage of the Russian-Ottoman secret discussion was an obvious question what to do with the “natives”? But since when the trifles like that had been a problem?

The deal was relatively straightforward:
  • OE sells area with the ports to the Russian Empire. For a while the ports will remain in Ottoman possession.
  • Russian Empire relocates most of the natives from the border area.
  • Those who don’t want to be relocated will be offered to emigrate to OE for which purpose the Sultan will provide the transportation from the ports and then will take care of resettlement.
  • When the process is completed, the ports will be ceded to Russia.
  • Russia explicitly recognizes the Ottoman sovereignty over Abkhazia.

And implementation looked as following:
  • Abdulaziz sold the region, both the coastal areas it owned and the territory over which it claimed overlordship, to Russian Empire.
  • AII demanded from the seniors of the tribes an oath of loyalty, which they predictably refused.
  • Russian troops entered territory in the numbers making serious resistance pretty much impossible.
  • The new demand was an oath of loyalty and relocation to the areas designated by the government (the unhealthy parts of the Black Sea coast and swampy areas of the Big Laba river). As an alternative, relocate to OE.
  • The elders appealed to AII promising loyalty but begging not to evict them from their ancestral lands.
  • AII (and quite a few prominent Russian figures) found the letter offensive and a clear indication of arrogance and disloyalty.
  • A desperate battle of 20,000 horsemen against 100,000 regular troops had been fought in 1864. Circassian warriors attacked the Russian army and tried to break through the line, but most were shot down by Russian artillery and infantry. The remaining fighters continued to fight as militants and were soon defeated.
  • Invasion continued with the “natives” being hunted down and forced to march to the ports where the Ottoman ships would be waiting. Their property was captured and looted with big numbers being killed in a process or died on a march.
  • The Ottoman part was mishandled because the numbers were much greater than anticipated (AII promised a gradual process with the resulting numbers of up to 100,000 and in reality few hundred thousands arrived to the ports within a short period of time) and the allocated resources were grossly inadequate. “Hardly half of those who went to Turkey arrived at the place” and those lucky enough to survive the trip had been initially placed on the bad lands practically with no help from the government “A year later, two-thirds of them died... of the 22,000 emigrants who settled near Batumi, only 7,000 remained, of the 30,000 people who settled near Samsun, only 1,800 remained, etc. People died in thousands, as for children, these unfortunate creatures were sold as a commodity.” To be fair, the Ottoman Emigration Commission was simply overwhelmed by the arriving numbers and eventually the survivors had been settled on the border Balkan territories, in Ottoman Syria and Transjordan, and Anatolia, while a smaller number were resettled into the Empire's major cities. Unlike AII who wanted land without the Circassians, Abdulaziz wanted Circassians without the land: they were considered the brave and experienced warriors capable of strengthening the OE’s borders.
Expulsion of highlanders from their slums and settlement of the Western Caucasus by Russians, such was the plan of war... The Russian population had not only to crown the conquest of the region, it itself had to serve as one of the main means of conquest... The state needed the land of the Zakubanians, there was no need for them themselves.” General R.A. Fadeev, 1864

Of course, not everybody was cheering and some eyewitnesses published the terrifying descriptions of the events but their voices were not heard over the celebration of the “glorious” victory over the historic enemies. AII was quite proud of this “achievement”.

Some small pockets of the Circassian tribes did survive along the Kuban River and near Tuapse but most of the territory was colonized by the Kuban Cossacks and migrants from European Russia.

Abkhazia was firmly placed under the Ottoman control and free from the regular Circassian invasions and the local rebels. As a small bonus, the garrison of the fort Gagra built in 1830 had been routinely dying out within less than a year due to the terrible climate and now the fort could be abandoned.

There is a depression between huge mountains on the Black Sea coast, in Abkhazia. The wind does not fly there; the heat there is intolerable from the hot rocks, and, to the completion of pleasures, the stream dries up and turns into a stinky puddle. A fortress is built in this gorge, where the fever rages to the point that one and a half sets of a garrison is dying per year, and the rest leaves with various deadly diseases.” [6]


With all Eastern Black Sea coast now being securely under the Russian and Ottoman control, the two rules started planning an ambitious project of a coastal railroad running all the way from Novorossiysk to the Ottoman Batum and from here through Anatolia….
________
[1] IMO, the obvious way to avoid it being the curse is to choose your wishes carefully.
[2] Which, IMO, was an irrational waste of the time and resources. The same, or even better, results could be easily achieved by implementing the Russian system of education which, according to Saltykov-Schedrin, could be formulated in few words: “without burdening the youths with the unnecessary knowledge prepare them to the effective execution of the orders given by their superiors.” 😂
[3] As you may (or may not) notice, on the XVIII century maps and paintings the East is often on the left and the North is on the lower part but we are already in the modern age and the East (with the Caspian Sea) is on the right, where it belongs, with the North on the top.
[4] Probably they can be characterized as a special case of the “free trade”.
[5] Unrelated but there are “Afro-Abkhazians”. Nobody can tell for sure who they ended up there but they do exist.
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[6] In OTL this was Russian fortress and the place was nicknamed “Hot Siberia”. Things got better when the Duke of Oldenburg decided to make Gagra into the popular resort and dried the swamps by planting the eucalyptus trees. The weather is still hot and dump and the beaches are rocky but a resort did become popular: most of the improvements made by the Duke (beautiful park, restaurant, etc.) survived even to the Soviet times.
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Always happy to see the Sick Man of Europe get closer and close to his deathbed.
You think it does? Why? OE just got rid of the rather expensive ballast and got few hundred thousands very loyal (and bellicose) soldiers. Plus, got a considerable amount of money. Of course, eventually, Abdulaziz will screw up economy (at least in OTL he did) but in 1870s OE had the 3rd navy (after Britain and France) and in 1877 its infantry had better (at least formally) rifles than Russian. Of course, all the weaponry and the big ships had to be bought which indicated a looming problem but ITTL who is going to dismantle it?
 
Always happy to see the Sick Man of Europe get closer and close to his deathbed.

If we are speaking about Ottoman empire it's actually in far better shape than otl, Crimean War that basically almost bankrupted Ottoman treasury was avoided, plus disastrous treaty with the British that destroyed Ottoman industry never happened, so generally Empire should be in better shape overall, i don't really even see Bulgarian uprising of 1876 happening (it was closely linked with reestablishment of Bulgarian Orthodox church, something that may happen in this TL given that Greeks fell out of favor with independence), but even then without Ottoman government raising taxes and thus sparking the tensions between Muslims and Christians i don't see rebellion happening even with Church forming, same with rebellion in Bosnia.
 
You think it does? Why? OE just got rid of the rather expensive ballast and got few hundred thousands very loyal (and bellicose) soldiers. Plus, got a considerable amount of money. Of course, eventually, Abdulaziz will screw up economy (at least in OTL he did) but in 1870s OE had the 3rd navy (after Britain and France) and in 1877 its infantry had better (at least formally) rifles than Russian. Of course, all the weaponry and the big ships had to be bought which indicated a looming problem but ITTL who is going to dismantle it?
My bad! Must have read in the lines wrong due to my eagerness to see the Ottomans dealt a crippling blow. :coldsweat:
 
If we are speaking about Ottoman empire it's actually in far better shape than otl, Crimean War that basically almost bankrupted Ottoman treasury was avoided, plus disastrous treaty with the British that destroyed Ottoman industry never happened, so generally Empire should be in better shape overall, i don't really even see Bulgarian uprising of 1876 happening (it was closely linked with reestablishment of Bulgarian Orthodox church, something that may happen in this TL given that Greeks fell out of favor with independence), but even then without Ottoman government raising taxes and thus sparking the tensions between Muslims and Christians i don't see rebellion happening even with Church forming, same with rebellion in Bosnia.
Fair enough, anti-ottoman vias was talking, really. :coldsweat:
 
If we are speaking about Ottoman empire it's actually in far better shape than otl, Crimean War that basically almost bankrupted Ottoman treasury was avoided, plus disastrous treaty with the British that destroyed Ottoman industry never happened, so generally Empire should be in better shape overall,
Considerably better shape because it has a luxury of having a few trade partners competing with each other and this gives a lot of space for political and economic maneuvering (as happens right now). The OTL pressure from AH is non-existent, Russia is friendly and economically and politically burdensome territories are not abandoned but sold. The border on Caucasus is secure with the raids by the highland tribes being pretty much eliminated (at no cost to the OE). The OE may even start developing some manufacturing including some metallurgy: it has coal and iron deposits in Anatolia.


i don't really even see Bulgarian uprising of 1876 happening (it was closely linked with reestablishment of Bulgarian Orthodox church, something that may happen in this TL given that Greeks fell out of favor with independence), but even then without Ottoman government raising taxes and thus sparking the tensions between Muslims and Christians i don't see rebellion happening even with Church forming, same with rebellion in Bosnia.
And, taking into an account the general geopolitical framework and the better domestic situation within OE, what would be the chances of success for such a rebellion? It would be isolated and defeated. If the Ottomans have problems with that and AII is reluctant to get Russia directly involved against the “little brethren” , Hungary would be happy to oblige because having the new independent or semi-independent Slavic state on its border may give some wrong idea to the numerous Hungarian Slavs and Romanians. The same goes for Bosnia: the Ottoman Serbia is quite enough in the terms of a bad influence.
 
I'd just side with whoever Milman does because really between us he'd be the only one knowing what the fuck is happening there
 
Glory and other things
249. Glory and other things
“- Get me the best of the best!
- They are licking their wounds!
- Then get me the best of the worst!”

animated version of ‘Three Musketeers’ with dogs and cats
If you find yourself in a fair fight, you didn't plan your mission properly."
David Hackworth
War is hell."
Sherman
His stupidity was so dazzling that there was every reason to hope that in a few decades he would get to the Theresian Military Academy or the Ministry of War.”
J. Gashek, ‘Good soldier Schweik’​


With the French Empire being established Emperor Oscar I had few things to consider. To prevent possible speculations, no he was not going to try limiting growing size of the crinolines even if the trend started causing noticeable problems in transportation and the public places.
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The reasons had been obvious:
  • The fashion kept stimulating the French metallurgy and textile industry and even gave a boost for a brand-new rubber production (a material seemingly useless outside crinoline construction, at least so far nobody could find an alternative big-scale application to it).
  • The Empress, being brought at a very conservative court, was all for improving the public morale and considered the crinolines as an important factor in minimizing the occasional affairs. Unlike the conventional skirt, the crinoline required considerable space and effort to come to a desirable point and then to put things back to order (unless, of course, the pair was ready to engage in a rather complicated acrobatics) and as a result indirectly encouraged steadier relations allowing to arrange for a proper logistics.
  • An attempt to interfere legislatively in the issues of fashion, especially the female fashions, could easily result in a revolution or at least a very bloody revolt and a newly-established Empire still was too fragile to risk such a possibility.
So, the crinolines were officially approved and the Empress even established a record appearing in a theater wearing crinoline of more than 7 meters around thus both defying the “scientific” opinion that 6 meters was an absolute practical maximum and squeezing His Imperial Majesty to the very corner of the Imperial box.

No, the issues to consider were much more practical. Here they are in an order of importance:
  • The name. Of course, “Oscar” was definitely fine for a President and could be considered as a far-fetched vision of his great father who anticipated eventual close relations with the Baltic League decades before they did happen. But wouldn’t it be a little bit too “foreign” for a founder of the French imperial dynasty? Being Joseph François Oscar, he was contemplating for a while one of two other names but “Joseph” sounded too Austrian (even it was after his uncle, a famous politician) and “François” could produce association with François I and his military failures and François II, which would be probably even worse. So, after a prolonged consideration and discussion with the trusted advisors he decided to stick to “Oscar”. At least his elder son was a conventional “Charles”.
  • The glory. The “emperor” kind of implied some military glory and his exploits in this area were in the past and in Africa. Something more local and preferably both glorious and low risk would be welcomed. Fortunately, the occasion presented itself without him even trying.
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In 1861 the secret Plombières (verbal) Agreement had been made between the French Empire and the Kingdom of Piedmont. By this agreement France promised Piedmont to help in removing Austrian influence from the Italian peninsula. The idea was quite popular in France even if very few really cared about the future of the Italian peninsula after the Hapsburgs are out. The trade relations did exist and it was not expected that it is going to make much of a difference if there is a single Italian state or few of them. The Hapsburgs were considered a traditional enemy of France and if France could not directly attack them (the minor naval encounter did not count) in 1849, now could be a good time.

Oscar’s personal friend, Jacques Alexandre Bixio, travelled to Turin and was able to pass to his friend, the Piedmontese chief minister, French proposals for an alliance of the two states against Austria. The agreement would be reinforced through the marriage of Princess Maria Clotilde of Savoy, daughter of the Piedmontese King, Victor Emmanuel II, to Prince Charles Bernadotte. Exchange of the unofficial visits was going for a while and when all points had been clarified Oscar met with Cavour discretely at Plombières-les-Bains, a once fashionable health resort in the small ravine of Augronne in the Vosges, reassuringly far from Paris or Turin, and off the beaten track of those following international diplomacy and politics. Oscar began by stating that he was determined to support Piedmont-Sardinia with all his strength in a war against Austria, on the condition that the war was not in support of a revolutionary cause and could be justified in diplomatic terms and, more importantly, before public opinion in France and in Europe. So the whole thing had to be provoked by Austria.
Eventually, the formal alliance of the mutual defense had been signed and the marriage was celebrated at Turin between Prince Napoléon Bonaparte and Princess Maria Clotilde of Savoy.

Following a series of provocative military movements near the Austro-Piedmontese frontier by Piedmont-Sardinia, and having become aware of the Franco-Sardinian alliance, the Austrians took the initiative by issuing the Ultimatum of Vienna on 23 April 1862. The Austrian ultimatum required the total demobilisation of the Piedmontese army. By failing to comply with this demand, the Piedmontese triggered a declaration of war by Austria, thereby fulfilling the French condition that their support for Piedmont-Sardinia would be contingent on Austria being the aggressor in any war. Upon Sardinia's refusal, the war began on 26 April. Austria invaded Sardinia three days later.

The French newspapers properly presented the subject to the public and everybody was enraged about the Austrian boorish behavior. Few Austrian visitors, upon being identified, had been kicked from the “establishments” by the dames of a negotiable virtue: unlike insignificant thing like virtue, their patriotism was not negotiable. With these shows of a wide public support duly reported to him by Minister of Interior, Oscar signed declaration of war with the Hapsburg Empire on 3 May.

With the great Fieldmarshal Radetzky being dead, the Austrian troops in Italy had been under command of Gyulay, the “hero of the lost battles” of Hungarian War. He was “the best of the worst” that Hapsburg monarchy had at that time.

The French Army for the Italian campaign had 170,000 soldiers, 2,000 horsemen and 312 guns. Oscar was in charge. in the belief that it would motivate the French people during the war. That would prove successful. Even more successful proved to be French field artillery and Minie rifles.

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So was the less advertised fact that the real field command was in the hands of Marshal François Marcellin Certain de Canrobert, Mac Mahon and other quite competent professionals.

Seriously, the French still considered élan on the battlefield to be more important than rifle training, and the bayonet was still the weapon most to be relied upon in deciding the issue. However, their light infantry units had been very efficient both in the aimed shooting and in the fast maneuvers. Tactically, the offensive was now carried out in deployed line, reinforced either at the centre or on either flank by battalions in company column. Following Jomini’s theories, any attack should be made en echelon using a V or “inverted V” formation. Light troops advanced in front of the attacking formation in skirmishing order.

The French cavalry, like most of their European counterparts, were still used for shock action and information gathering, although the latter was, to say the least, abysmally carried out by all three armies during the Italian campaign. The main role of mounted troops was in the attack, carried out by massed squadrons employing a “raking charge” when attacking enemy infantry in line; this called for them to approach the enemy from the right, that is on the sword or lance arm, so that they could avoid the destructive fire of the new rifled musket, and once closed on their opponents they were to ride along the front slashing and spearing, causing as much confusion as possible.

The French army took the field armed with 12 pound cannon, and the new 4 pound Beaulieu rifled guns, which far outclassed the Austrian smoothbore.

Administratively, the French army suffered from a rather chaotic mobilization and supply system but, still, the big number of troops had been raised and transported to the theater of war in a reasonably short time. But with no idea of how to deal with the mass movement of troops and supplies by rail or ship, with no forward planning being made beforehand, or study of the complexities of the logistics involved, it was only by sheer good fortune, coupled with the equally disorganised state of her opponent that the whole campaign did not turn into a fiasco.

The army arrived in Italy well ahead of all the equipment and supplies needed for a campaign which had already begun –‘ the opposite,’ as the Emperor telegraphed to Marshal Randon, the new Minister of War, ‘of what we should have done.’ He added that he held the Ministry ‘very much to blame.’ But he himself shared with his ministers and officials the cheerful French belief that somehow things would sort themselves out. When he gave out his first orders, for the general advance of the Allied Army, and Marshal Baraguay-d’Hilliers protested that neither I nor II Corps had yet got artillery, he shrugged the matter off: ‘On s’organisera en route.’ That might have stood as the motto of the whole supply service, the “Intendence.” The ammunition and rations piled up at Genoa because there were no officers with experience or energy to get such large masses of material moving on the largely one-track railway lines. By local purchase or requisition, and with the help of hastily organised civilian transport columns, the army was somehow fed and kept on the move, though at the cost of great hardship to the troops.” By the time of the Battle of Solferino most of the French medical supplies still were piled on Genoa’s docks.
The commanders and staffs were saved from total discredit only by the French genius for improvisation and the still greater incompetence of the Austrians.”

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The Sardinian Army had about 70,000 soldiers, 4,000 horsemen and 90 guns. It was led by Victor Emmanuel II of Savoy, supported by Alfonso Ferrero la Marmora.
Tactics for the infantry were along Austrian lines, although some changes were taking place in the use of company columns and more linear formations. Except for few Bersaglieri units, the infantry was armed with the old percussion muskets.

The cavalry consisted of dragoons, lancers, hussars and carabineers, and the lance itself may have been carried by the first rank of each squadron in all regiments. Battlefield tactics were the same as the French and Austrian, together with the failure in reconnaissance that plagued both those armies.
The artillery remained smoothbore, having 16 pound and 8 pound cannon and 15cm Howitzers mounted on the “Cavalli” gun carriage. The “voloira” or flying artillery consisted of light 6 or 8 pound cannon and was much the same as the French horse artillery.

Frederick Engels, one of the silliest “military writers” of all times [2] valued them highly because “…. with their tasteful dress, military bearing, well-knit but agile frames, and fine Italian features, they look better than any body of bigger men. …”

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The Austrian Army formally fielded more men with 220,000 soldiers, 824 guns and 22,000 horsemen. It was led by Field Marshal Ferenc Graf Gyulay. Gyulay had an advantage in experience, both personal and some of his troops, and disadvantage in pretty much everything else.

Allowing for the fact that the Austrians would be fighting the campaign over familiar ground, they nevertheless were at a distinct disadvantage when it came to mobilisation and supply. Their forces were stretched even during peacetime owing to the commitments of trying to cover their straggling empire. Divided into four Army Commands, the strongest was the 2nd Army with three under strength corps in northern Italy and along the coastal areas around the Adriatic Sea. Also, the Austrians had problems with the “real” strength of their available forces, and the numbers conjured up on paper. There were never more than some 220,000 men available in Lombardy, Istria and Dalmatia, and at the decisive battle of Solferino Franz Josef could scarcely scrape together 120,000 men.

The officers were not interested in any military innovations. When asked by the Prussian military attaché in Vienna in 1854 if his Austrian colleagues were interested in Kriegsspiel, used to train Prussian staff officers, he found that once they became aware that it was not a game played for money they lost all interest.

The Austrian infantry were armed with the Lorenz rifled musket, but their Jäger battalions were the only ones who really became proficient in its use. This was to prove a great handicap as the new rifle could have given them the edge in defensive tactics, and could have been a decisive factor in breaking the French attacks had it been used in more skilled hands. But the Austrians still clung to outdated manoeuvres on the battlefield, preferring compact battalion columns and the bayonet to the detriment of all else.
The Austrian heavy cavalry still was good but seriously handicapped by an absence of the Hungarian horses it was traditionally using and most of the light cavalry was lost after 1850.
All Austrian artillery was smoothbore, consisting of 12 and 6 pound cannon plus howitzers almost unchanged since the early XIX century. In addition each field artillery battery had a rocket section attached to it, though exactly what these weapons actually achieved is debatable.

With the Austrians being noticeably worse off then their main opponent, the French, result was reasonably predictable, especially taking into an account that Gyulay always tended to err on a side of caution and missed an opportunity to beat the small Piedmontese army before the French arrived. On April 29th, with close to 120,000 men and over 300 cannon the Austrian commander crossed the Ticino River and spread out his men along the Sesia, pushing troops out as far as Vercelli. Here he wasted precious time for no apparent reason. He was aware that the French were already pushing forward towards the Mont St. Cenis pass, as well as sending troops to the port of Genoa in steamships. This threat alone caused Gyulai to become obsessed with any turning movement that might occur on his left flank.

Thus when the French Emperor arrived to take command, he had at his disposal close to 200,000 men against Gyulai’s 120,000. Over the course of campaign Gyulai received some reinforcements but their precise numbers are unknown.

Few bloody encounters followed with the Austrians retreating until they reached a final battlefield near the village of Solferino. There are arguments about the numbers engaged on both sides one of them being 120,000 effectives, with 500 cannon and French and Piedmontese up to 130,000 men, with 400 cannon. Oscar, Victor-Emmanuel and FJI had bee present on a battlefield.
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On both sides the battle was remarkable by a faulty initial plans and a lack of coordination but the Austrian had been less coordinated than their French opponents but probably the Piedmontese were even less than the Austrians. Their chaotic attacks on the northern flank had been consistently repulsed by Benedek.
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Eventually, the battle in the center ended up being a butchery in which “Austrians and allies trampled one another under foot, slaughtered each other on a carpet of bloody corpses, smashed each other with rifle butts, crushed each other’s skulls, disembowelled each other with sabre and bayonet”.

Eventually, the French managed to push Austrians out of Solferino village and to start a general retreat. The allied losses are estimated at 17,000 and Austrian at 20,000. Oscar had enough and, without consulting his ally, he signed a peace with FJI by which Austria ceded Lombardy over to the French, who then turned it over to Victor Emmanuel, while Tuscany and Modena were restored to their former dukes. The Piedmontese felt themselves betrayed and their relations with France soured until VE, who completely ignored the treaty, except for getting Lombardy (😉) finally managed to unite the whole Italy with a complete French approval.

Oscar returned to France in triumph even of the empire did not get any territories for its efforts. But the whole thing was a “war for honor and liberty” so this was OK.
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[1] Sorry, but I had to postpone the 2nd Italian War for Independence by couple years. 😢
[2] The only reason why I did not write “the silliest” is because I’m not going to pretend that I read all or even most of them.
 
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