No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Basically all side's have a good reason for Partition. Russia wants to resolve Orthodox question and opposed to otl i don't think they have as big of influence in PLC as they share it with Sweden, Sweden has been eyeing Danzig weary , weary long and won't stay uninvolved if chance presents itself (and no one refuses free clay), Prussia and Austria had just exited a costly war with lot of prestige , but little gain and they are eyeing free recompensation, not speaking about Frederick having territorial pretensions.

And ultimately this is perfect chance for Russia to set itself as a regional mediator.
 
Basically all side's have a good reason for Partition. Russia wants to resolve Orthodox question and opposed to otl i don't think they have as big of influence in PLC as they share it with Sweden, Sweden has been eyeing Danzig weary , weary long and won't stay uninvolved if chance presents itself (and no one refuses free clay), Prussia and Austria had just exited a costly war with lot of prestige , but little gain and they are eyeing free recompensation, not speaking about Frederick having territorial pretensions.

And ultimately this is perfect chance for Russia to set itself as a regional mediator.
Yes, all of the above plus 2 extremely important considerations:
1. It seems that everybody (as in “everybody who is still reading this TL”) expects Partition to happen and I don’t like the PLC strong enough to go against Vox Populi.
2. There is already a beautiful map depicting results of this event and avoiding the Partition would be a gross impoliteness to @Hastings and everybody else who took part in shaping it.
😂😂😂😂😂😉😂

Seriously, without the Partition the PLC (at least ITTL where it is under Russian military occupation) is with a high probability going to involve Russia (and perhaps Austria as well) into war with Sublime Porte which, unlike OTL, is pretty much meaningless for Russia (and for the Ottomans) because it already got from the Ottomans pretty much all that it really needed at that time (without getting into the insane Caucasus adventures or wasting enormous effort on ending up with tiny Bessarabia).

Well, there could be Ottoman War somewhere along the way but so far I can’t come with a single non-idiotic reason for it on both sides. The ideas are welcomed but “non-idiotic” means “none of the OTL reasons” so it may be challenging. 😜
 
1. It seems that everybody (as in “everybody who is still reading this TL”) expects Partition to happen and I don’t like the PLC strong enough to go against Vox Populi.
I know I haven't been commenting, but I actually didn't think the Partitions would happen.

Sweden was established earlier in the TL as deciding it had enough land already, even if Danzig is a prize. Sweden is probably worried about Prussia enough that I doubt they'll exactly be thrilled with its new territorial integrity bordering several . Actually figured any major territorial gains for them would, a big maybe, be a lucky personal union with Denmark-Norway if they're intermarrying.

Prussia got off a bit easier in the Seven Years War, but doesn't have more of Swedish Pomerania. Austria managed to not lose without Russia, but still absorbed more damage. They're both very weak right now.

Sort of feel this move largely helps those less involved. Feels like this could have been handled without the all around cooperative partition. Another short war to punish the PLC. Maybe a few minor gains. Not like both Austria and Prussia would likely work together to support PLC, and they're weak even if they did.

Not keeping too much track though of everything though, so I'm just accepting what you're giving out.
 
I'm just here for a competent Russian Empire that is as close as possible in size to OTL before the RCW, maybe adding Mongolia and as much as Manchuria as can feasibly add value. Which you already told me is very little many times. Finland and Poland I easily would donate to allied Sweden or Independance.
 
Another short war to punish the PLC. Maybe a few minor gains. Not like both Austria and Prussia would likely work together to support PLC, and they're weak even if they did.

Thing is that PLC became such a mess that there would need to be more wars to punish it and as said opposed to OTL they aren't Russian protectorate, if anything they are more no man's land in between everyone that everyone are worried about with potential to draw them in major conflict (when France drawed them in war of PS), or in this case Russia vs Ottomans. Basically there is no wested interest to maintain PLCs territorial integrity while there is internal pressure to expand, main purpose of PLC is to be a buffer state in this TL and they are leaving a good chunk of Poland to fulfill that purpose.

Otherwise regarding Prussian/Austrian weakness, they are weak for now, but once again once they regain their power they will interefere and it isn't in Russian interest to fight either of them on behalf of PLC, Sweden on other hand is quite secure thanks to it's alliance with Russia and even though many have pointed out Swedish fear of Prussia, it's important to note that they didn't act on it and that Sweden is still seen as Great Power and by their expirience from BFW they believe that they can take Prussia on.

Ultimately it's better for both Russia and Sweden to act now in accord with other Great Powers while Austria and Prussia are weak to get what they want, especially Sweden which has a small window of opportunity to get massive gains for little sacrifice.
 
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Yeah, Poland-Lithuania is a giant mess sprawled across much of central Europe. Just doing a war is not going to straighten it out. That is just the road to having to randomly invade it or have permanent garrisons. And if you are regularly moving troops in, might as well annex it so you have a securer grip and collect taxes. Everyone carving off a chunk will still leave it an unstable mess, but at least a smaller-scale one. Prussia and Austria are weak, true, but integrating their chunks won't be unmanagably difficult, and this is not a era where great powers were prone to turning down free land (also Frederick had an insatiable appetite for land and West Prussia in particular). Russia gets several advantages. First, the Orthodox question. Second, it makes sure that everyone has a stake in not feeding Polish nationalism. Austria in particular could eventually decide to prop up either a Polish nationalist or Habsburg in Poland. Giving them 2 million subjects is a very generous gift, but also greatly reduces the chances of them developing any problematic temptations.

While the current boundaries make a lot of sense, I think there is a good chance of a final partition 30 or so years down the road along similarish boundaries to the 3rd partition OTL. Poland is likely to continue to be rather unstable and prone to random fits of violent militant nationalism. That wouldn't be terrible for Russia (or Sweden) as while western Belarus, Chelmland, and Volhynia were more unruly and did join the great revolts, they probably wouldn't have been too much of a problem if Alexander the Idiot hadn't decided he wanted to add the Polish heartlands to his territory, making them be in the same realm, (didn't go great in OTL and could easily have gone worse), since the Polish heartland would be the Austrian/Prussian share of the pie.
 
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I know I haven't been commenting, but I actually didn't think the Partitions would happen.

Sweden was established earlier in the TL as deciding it had enough land already, even if Danzig is a prize. Sweden is probably worried about Prussia enough that I doubt they'll exactly be thrilled with its new territorial integrity bordering several . Actually figured any major territorial gains for them would, a big maybe, be a lucky personal union with Denmark-Norway if they're intermarrying.

Territorial integrity on its own is not a critical factor even if Fritz’s own description of the “corridor” was “poor lands”. Sweden is getting a valuable price and, being a part of the League, it has all reasons to consider it secure.
Prussia got off a bit easier in the Seven Years War, but doesn't have more of Swedish Pomerania. Austria managed to not lose without Russia, but still absorbed more damage. They're both very weak right now.

Yes, and there can be two basic behavioral models:
1. To use their current weakness to the hilt generating a lot of bad feelings due to them not being allowed to participate in the Partition.
2. “Generously” allow them to participate so that they also have their hands dirty. If done properly, aka, not as stupidly as in OTL, they and not Russia and Sweden are being seen in the rump PLC as the main bad guys even if because they are grabbing pieces of Poland proper.
Sort of feel this move largely helps those less involved. Feels like this could have been handled without the all around cooperative partition. Another short war to punish the PLC.

Short war of “punishing” the PLC is pointless because it is not a state with which a reliable peace treaty can be concluded. In the absence of 100% hostile surrounding there will be hostile actions (supported by Austria and Prussia) with a need of a protracted Russian occupation, extensive involvement in the PLC domestic affairs, etc.. Pretty much as in OTL.
Maybe a few minor gains. Not like both Austria and Prussia would likely work together to support PLC, and they're weak even if they did.

In OTL Austria was giving a refuge to the Bar confederacy either on Austrian or Hungarian territory. There could be all types of support. Not critical but resulting in a protracted annoyance.
Not keeping too much track though of everything though, so I'm just accepting what you're giving out.
 
more reforms
133. More reforms…

When I see a trail in the garden, I say to the gardener: make a road here.”
Alexander I
“All reformers are likely to go to hell because they will have nothing to do in paradise”
Machiavelli
“Each great reform was not that something new was introduced, but that something old was destroyed.”
Henry Thomas Buckle

Military reforms were one of the favorite occupations of Peter I and Alexey so Peter II simply could not leave this area without contribution of his own. The previous wars demonstrated that Russian army was good on a battlefield, both in Europe and Asia, but this did not mean that it was ideally organized, which was not a big surprise because wars on the different theaters had been producing ad hoc changes without a general plan and while on the lower, “fighting”, levels these changes were allowing to solve specific issues, on the top level they kept adding to the already existing mess. Having an outstanding fighting general (Munnich) as a minister also had its own disadvantages because his main attention was to the preparedness of the troops (which was great) while general organization was rather neglected (which kept causing problems). Munnich had been kicked upstairs becoming a head of the military department of the State Council, aka, supervisor of the Ministry of War. To position of the Minister of War Peter appointed general Milutin [1], a well-educated officer who served as Rumyantsev’s chief of staff in 2nd Dzungar War, then was Chief Quartermaster of the Caucasian Line Troops and then appointed to be at the disposal of the Minister of War and Quartermaster General of the General Staff.

By the beginning of the reorganization, the Ministry of War, according to Milutin, was an "organ of inconvenience, delay and arguing." It included a number of departments:
  • The General Staff dealt with the deployment of troops, the development of dislocation maps.
  • The Imperial Department was in charge of the personnel and internal structure of the troops, excluding artillery and engineering units that were not subordinate to the Minister of War.
  • The food department supplied the army.
  • The Commissariat was in the knowledge of the monetary and clothing supply of troops, the organization of hospitals and their provision.
  • Medical and veterinary services were provided by the medical department.
  • Military court cases were within the competence of the Audit Department.
  • The artillery and engineering departments were in charge of economic issues.
  • The general management of the artillery and engineering troops was carried out by the Feldzeichmeister General and the Inspector General of the Engineering Forces, respectively. These positions were not subordinate to the Minister of War and had the right to report directly to the Emperor.
  • Training of military personnel was in the hands of the chief of military educational institutions, also independently of the Minister of War.

The Military Ministry under the new structure consisted of:
  • The Imperial Main Quarters and the Military Chancellery of His Majesty
  • The Military Council. 5 main committees were formed under the military council: military-codification, of the arrangement and formation of troops, military-educational, military-hospital and military-prison.
  • The Main Military Court
  • The Chancellery of the Military Ministry (responsible for the military intelligence and counter-intelligence).
  • The General Staff which now covered all branches of the staff service. Its officers had to graduate from the General Staff Academy and were equal to the officers of the Guards.
  • Main departments - infantry, cavalry, artillery, engineering, military medical, military educational institutions, and regular troops, military court.
  • The Committee on the Wounded.
  • Science Committee - responsible for technical innovations (including collection of information regarding technical military developments abroad).
Another part of the reform was elimination of the excessive centralization. Partially, this was already done in the CA during conquest of the khanates but now all empire (except for the Don Army Region, which was in a special position) was divided into the military districts: Kazan, Kiev, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kharkiv, East Siberian, West Siberian, Orenburg, Turkestan.

The district was headed by a commander (aka Governor-General). The powers of the district commander made it possible to eliminate the pre-existent inconsistencies and disputes between combat commanders and economic authorities. In case of war, the district headquarters became the headquarters of the active army. But, as always, the seemingly logical system did not stand up to the criticism of the Organizational Commission created for working out the details of implementation:

In the structure of the army, to apply from the beginnings of the territorial system only what can be useful under the conditions of our fatherland, while maintaining the possibility of moving and concentrating troops, but allowing constant, from certain areas, the recruitment of each part of the army in peacetime and its replenishment to military personnel, when brought to martial law...”

Based on this, it was decided, according to the project of the General Staff, to divide the entire European Russia into recruitment areas (on the territory of one or more uezds). Each site had to provide at least one infantry regiment, one separate battalion, two artillery batteries, one cavalry squadron.

The reasons for this deviation from the initial “ideal plan” were obvious: experience of the previous wars demonstrated that the needs for the wars in Europe and Asia had been distinctively different.
  • While in the European wars a standardized corps system was more efficient, in Asia operations had been routinely conducted by the smaller units, often created on ad hoc basis to fit the specific needs and more often than not having greater percentage of the irregulars (Cossacks, Dzungars, Kazakhs) then the armies which fought in Europe.
  • While in Asia a military district was a convenient way for raising a fighting army, in the case of a major European war the system would result in creation of the numerous small armies with a resulting spreading rather than concentrating the forces and difficulty of their coordination. Not to mention that having an army in Moscow or Kazan did not make too much of a practical sense. Obviously, in the case of war the corps units from few military districts would have to be combined into a single army with its own staff structure outlined by the earlier reforms and modified to improve the supply and medical services.
Experience of the wars in Asia and analysis of the 7YW forced to reevaluate some of the existing methods of the military education. Disciplinary Charter was introduced and a special order was issued for the training of recruits, which ordered them to be trained with a musket, charging and shooting, the rules of loose and rank system, with a stress of conscious understanding as a mandatory requirement. Great importance was attached to training in shooting at the target, drill and fire training with application to the terrain. In other words, the Prussian system of turning soldiers into the automatons and stress upon the rate of fire instead of its precision had been rejected.

All irregulars had been turned into the Cossack hosts and Cossack units that were on active duty were put on an equal footing with regular troops.

Old standard corps organization remained without the changes but was limited only to Europe. In the Asian military districts it was allowed either not to use the corps units at all or to form them based upon the local needs. Division level was formally preserved but it became more administrative than a battlefield formation, usually with a much greater addition of the irregular units than in the standard “European” divisions.

The General Staff was a venerable institution created by Adam Veide soon after the LNW. Initially, it was responsible strictly for the quartermaster services but gradually its functions had been expanding to all aspects of the staff work requiring the officers with a good theoretical base.
1652845749926.jpeg

During most of its existence General Staff remained a rather problematic institution. While, in theory, importance of its role was recognized and appreciated, the practice was not always up to the theory. The same goes for his position within the military structure: at various times it was either independent organization or a part of the Ministry of War and not always in one piece.

Its officers assigned to the field units, when they volunteered to join an acting army, had been something of the outsiders with no clear responsibilities and authority and had a reputation for dispensing the “free advices” not always based upon adequate knowledge of the situation (unless the relevant chief of staff was willing to supply them with all available intelligence) and looking down their noses at the army officers even of a superior rank unless they had a sign of graduation from the General Staff Academy on their uniform.
1652845940699.jpeg

Some of the military commanders held a strong opinion that the officers of the General Staff are volunteering to the acting army mostly for getting an award and treated them with a great suspicion [2]. General Staff officers were mostly unfamiliar with the combat service and they had a double subordination: to the General Staff and to the unit to which they were assigned. However, the prejudices aside, the well-educated staff officers had been needed both at the time of peace and at war.

However, this was different for the graduates of the General Staff Academy who, while having “of General Staff” addition to their rank, had been serving in the army units as the staff and quartermaster officers, often growing to the high-ranking military commanders.

***​
There were some other aspects of the reform:
  • Regardless the social rank (unless one happens to be a Grand Duke 😂 or was promoted from the ranks for bravery during the war), a person could not get an officer rank without a minimal military education. This requirement resulted in expansion of the Junker military schools. Graduate of a Junker school was automatically getting a lowest officer rank.​
  • The soldiers’ children ceased to be a “property” of the Ministry of War and became free people. However, they retained a right to get into the schools preparing non-commissioned officers (especially those used for various staff functions).​

__________
[1] Real Milutin conducted military reform of AII part of which happens more than century earlier IITL.
[2] Muraviev-Karski wrote this in his diaries and consider them something of an inevitable evil of a questionable usefulness. Not that he and his likes can be blamed because competence and usefulness of the General Staff officers always varied in a wide range, from Moltke down to Weyrother. And even in the top (Moltke) case the field commanders often ignored his orders even during the Franco-Prussian War. 😜
 
Territorial integrity on its own is not a critical factor even if Fritz’s own description of the “corridor” was “poor lands”. Sweden is getting a valuable price and, being a part of the League, it has all reasons to consider it secure.

I am under the impression that this description was a ploy by Fritz. The lands of the corridor were as poor or rich as Brandenburg and by the grace of Vistula could export their produce easily and thus with low cost.

I have to admit that was of a similar impression as @CaedmonCousland : I would expect that this Russia with a very different foreign policy would be against the partition of the PLC. Instead of a buffer state, it gets borders with Major Powers that increase the chances of involvement in european wars that they are more or less try to avoid. And it makes the strategic situation more precarious for Russia. To be honested, what I expected were further russian land grabs in PLC but not a partition.
 
By the beginning of the reorganization, the Ministry of War, according to Milutin, was an "organ of inconvenience, delay and arguing."
That is very much an understatement. Is it something they fixed OTL around this timeframe as well? To me it's blatantly obvious this is a mess, but hindsight is 20/20.

And I'd like to see some cross decentralised wargames as well. Sure I presume the committees (research and the others) are responsible of finding benefits and learnings and sharing those, but friendly competition would be good. Maybe even mixed competition, e.g. by mixing districts so it's not one district wargamingnvs another, but an army build from multiple districts vs an army of multiple districts. You can't make it huge and many limitations like the lack of railroads etc exist, but semi-annual games would be good.
 
I am under the impression that this description was a ploy by Fritz. The lands of the corridor were as poor or rich as Brandenburg and by the grace of Vistula could export their produce easily and thus with low cost.

I have to admit that was of a similar impression as @CaedmonCousland : I would expect that this Russia with a very different foreign policy would be against the partition of the PLC. Instead of a buffer state, it gets borders with Major Powers that increase the chances of involvement in european wars that they are more or less try to avoid. And it makes the strategic situation more precarious for Russia. To be honested, what I expected were further russian land grabs in PLC but not a partition.
Unilateral land grab will inevitably cause the resentment. The most relevant example is the 1st Ottoman War of CII which resulted … in the 1st Partition because Prussia and Austria were considering it a destruction of the existing balance of power (and, IIRC, this opinion was shared by the Brits). Having borders with these Major Powers is not a problem: Sweden already has border with Prussia and why should Russia be afraid of the short border with Austria or feel itself obligated to be involved in any war in which it does not want to participate? As a buffer the PLC is meaningless, anyway. But removing PLC border with the Porte is a plus both in the chance of getting involved in the unwanted war with the Ottomans (as in OTL) and in security of the operations if such war happens (as did happen in OTL).
 
That is very much an understatement. Is it something they fixed OTL around this timeframe as well?
With some “adjustments” these are real Milutin reforms of the 1860s-70s.

Of course, IITL Russian military organization is approximately century ahead of the schedule and OTL Barcklay’s reforms mostly happened during the reign of PI so it is realistic to expect that there were “unsystematic” additions in between in the administrative part of the army.


To me it's blatantly obvious this is a mess, but hindsight is 20/20.

Strictly speaking, Milutin’s reforms also created a lot of a mess and were far from perfect, especially in their tactical part but this is irrelevant in the mid-XVIII because the modern weaponry is not there yet.
And I'd like to see some cross decentralised wargames as well.
What do you mean?

Sure I presume the committees (research and the others) are responsible of finding benefits and learnings and sharing those, but friendly competition would be good. Maybe even mixed competition, e.g. by mixing districts so it's not one district wargamingnvs another, but an army build from multiple districts vs an army of multiple districts. You can't make it huge and many limitations like the lack of railroads etc exist, but semi-annual games would be good.
Maneuvers had been introduced by PI but I’m not sure that they were conducted in any meaningful form in the XVIII century and under NI they became a formalized routine conducted year by year in the same allocated areas.
 
What do you mean?
Sorry I see a word was dropped. What I meant was "cross district decentralized war games". So like I said a couple of lines later (and you replied to already), but the key issue of decentralization is that synergie and sharing gets lost. Plus there might be rivalry, which is even worse for mutual gain. Hence the proposal to mix armies from multiple districts so they have to work together and drive to mutual success. But like you already said it is pretty much to advanced / early
 
Sorry I see a word was dropped. What I meant was "cross district decentralized war games".

This would be a very expensive entertainment.

So like I said a couple of lines later (and you replied to already), but the key issue of decentralization is that synergie and sharing gets lost. Plus there might be rivalry, which is even worse for mutual gain. Hence the proposal to mix armies from multiple districts so they have to work together and drive to mutual success. But like you already said it is pretty much to advanced / early
The military districts, as originally planned by Milutin, even with the allowance for the improved communications (railroads) had been a rather bizarre idea: who and to which purpose would need an army formed in Moscow, Kazan or Orenburg? Even more bizarre because in OTL Milutin abolished the corps level leaving only divisions, which meant that in the case of war there would be a need in creating a brand new corps level structure.

The German system of Wehrkreis (military districts) was much more meaningful: a district was linked to an army corps; thus Wehrkreis took over the area that Armeekorps had been responsible for and sent replacements to the same formation. Of course, during WWI the system broke down. In practical terms, Milutin’s military districts are functionally closer to the army inspectorates of the Imperial German Army created after 1870 but Germany was quite different geographically from the Russian Empire and inspectorates were (as I understand) pretty much headquarters (2 of them in Berlin) while the troops for the future armies could be raised elsewhere and not necessarily in the same area.

So, as applicable to the mid-XVIII century, the system ITTL ends up as a purely administrative one allowing to arrange a reasonably organized raising and training of the troops. Besides, the requirements toward commander of a military district as a peace time administrator are not the same as to the army commander at the time of war.
 
So this is just a curiosity, but regarding Ottoman empire borders? From my understanding in this TL a war between Russia and Ottomans that happened around 1708 left Ottomans heavily defeated and losing Crimea , this in turn potentially butterflied away rise of revenge party and Ottoman - Venetian war of (1714-1718) which in turn butterflied away Austro-Ottoman war of (1716-1718) as Austria was guarantor of peace of Karlowitz which Ottomans broke with war against Venice.

So am I right to assume that Ottoman European possessions still have borders defined by treaty of Karlowitz?

@alexmilman
 
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So this is just a curiosity, but regarding Ottoman empire borders? From my understanding in this TL a war between Russia and Ottomans that happened around 1708 left Ottomans heavily defeated and losing Crimea , this in turn potentially butterflied away rise of revenge party and Ottoman - Venetian war of (1714-1718) which in turn butterflied away Austro-Ottoman war of (1716-1718) as Austria was guarantor of peace of Karlowitz which Ottomans broke with war against Venice.

So am I right to assume that Ottoman European possessions still have borders defined by treaty of Karlowitz?

@alexmilman
Honestly, I was not thinking about the European repercussions of the IITL Russian-Ottoman war of 1707-09. But I would not discount them because defeat in that war did not mean a complete annihilation of the Ottoman military force and the peace conditions were generous enough for the Ottomans being able to fight elsewhere. OTOH, at least the Austrians could be encouraged to fight the Ottomans by their bad performance against what is still considered as a second rate power.
However, the war of 1737 looks less likely.

But, I repeat, the Austrian-Turkish wars are the grey area as far as this TL is involved and you have a complete freedom of assumptions and contributions, if you wish: I would not mind a sub-TL on this subject.
 
Honestly, I was not thinking about the European repercussions of the IITL Russian-Ottoman war of 1707-09. But I would not discount them because defeat in that war did not mean a complete annihilation of the Ottoman military force and the peace conditions were generous enough for the Ottomans being able to fight elsewhere. OTOH, at least the Austrians could be encouraged to fight the Ottomans by their bad performance against what is still considered as a second rate power.
However, the war of 1737 looks less likely.

But, I repeat, the Austrian-Turkish wars are the grey area as far as this TL is involved and you have a complete freedom of assumptions and contributions, if you wish: I would not mind a sub-TL on this subject.

Personally i believe that a war in 1714-1718, or a war around that time period would still happen given Ottoman defeat could potentially provoke them to seek an easy target elsewhere (Venedik) and Austria would feel confident to go to war, so i would say that war happens more, or less the same as it did in otl with same results. Treaty of Passarowitz was more, or less in line with what Russians would be willing to allow Austrians to get and British and Dutch (their intervention ended the conflict otl, this time they would be joined by Russia with same results) would see it as a balance to Russian acquisition of Crimea in previous war.

I also agree with the war of 1737,or in that time period not happening (at least one started by Austria), as it would cause tensions with Russia and i don't believe that Ottomans would start it , especially since in1739 entire fiasco with Nader Shah took place. Otherwise no war is scheduled until (1788 - 1791) and i don't see that happening.
 
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reforms and other distractions..
134. Reforms and other distractions…

“- A treatise on the dangers of reforms in general." Isn't it superfluous?
- It is the main idea of Your Excellency that all reforms are harmful at all.
- Yes, indigenous, decisive; but if you change anything, improve anything, I don't say anything against it.
- In this case, it will not be reforms, but amendments, fixes.

A. Ostrovsky ‘Enough Stupidity in Every Wise Man’

«чтоб русская держава спаслась от их затеи, повесить Станислава всем вожакам на шеи»
А. К. Толстой ‘порой веселой мая…’ [1]​


Initially, avalanche of the reforms was met with a general enthusiasm because, with the most touchy issue, the serfdom, being treated cautiously, nobody had serious reasons to object and even the newly opened universities and gymnasiums had been viewed favorably: deficiencies of the home education for the young nobles were quite obvious both due to the related costs and the generally low results. The military schools generated a considerable enthusiasm, especially among the poorer nobility (aka, majority of the noble class) because not only the government was taking care about the education but the graduates of these schools had a guaranteed place in the officers’ corps (the old Petrian system required service from the ranks and, even there were widely used loopholes, they required connections and money and even then a young noble could start with a non-com position) and, depending upon success in education. the graduates could have, in theory, a right to chose placement in the most prestigious regiments all the way to the Guards [2].
The same applied to the civic service: an university education was guaranteeing entry into the service with a “class” position [3] instead of one of the lower level clerks who were required to pass through the special exam to raise to the lowest rank of College Registrar.

But at some point the reformers got overly enthusiastic. The first proposal at the first glance looked relatively harmless because it was about the definitions. Subjects of the Russian Empire had to be divided into 3 major classes, each with its own set of the “rights”:
  • The nobility has civil and political rights;
  • "Middle class" has civil rights (right to movable and immovable property, freedom of occupation and movement, to act on its own behalf in court) - merchants, burghers, state peasants.
  • "Working People" has general civil rights (civil freedom of the individual): they are serfs, workers and domestic servants. And any citizen could rise a step higher when acquiring any property.
While pretty much everybody was OK with the first two items, the third one produced a severe backlash: what “civil freedom” was supposed to mean for a serf? Is his lord deprived of a right to punish a serf, within the limits defined by a law? Can a serf became free person if he acquiring some property? Etc.

It went from bad to worse when the idea of an elected Council of State had been floated. It was proposed that its members have to be elected though the multi-step step of the elections (uezd-gubernia-state). Of course, the emperor would retain a complete freedom of interrupting the Council’s meetings and ignoring its decisions but this did not help because an idea of any kind of a highest level government organ being elective rather than selective was a taboo. Of course, this being 1760s and the Age of Enlightenment (the late Emperor Alexey even exchanged letters with some of the so-called “philosophers” and used services of some of them for purchasing books for the State library in Moscow [4] ), the enthusiasts had been spared the spectacular punishments of which Peter I was fond of. Instead of being impaled or even a milder punishment of being beaten by the knout and deprived of a tongue, they retained their positions and even got some state awards. It is just that their intellectual capacities being channeled into what Peter considered as more productive activities.

Which did not prevent the loyal supporters of the absolute monarchy from coming with their own declaration called “A treatise on the dangers of reforms in general”, which started with the following:
What does the reform contain? The reform involves two actions: 1) abolition of the old and 2) putting something new in its place. Which of these actions is harmful? Both are equally bad: 1st) by sweeping away the old, we give a space of dangerous inquisitiveness of the mind to penetrate the reasons why this or the other is rejected, and draw such conclusions: something unsuitable is swept away; such an institution is discarded, so it is unsuitable. And this should not happen, because this is exciting freethinking and a kind of challenge is made to discuss what is not negotiable. 2nd) by supplying new things, we make a kind of concession to the so-called spirit of the time, which is nothing more than the fabrication of idle minds. “ [5]

With the dangerous foreign ideas being discarded some of the definitely useful ones had been adopted and speedily put into implementation.
The most important of them was the British practice of making the muskets out of the standardized components. This allowed both improve the productivity and to get rid of the existing problems (with the high discrepancy of the non-standardized muskets each soldier had to prepare his own bullets and the shooting performance was all over the place).
The second was deployment of the road construction technology developed by Pierre-Marie-Jérôme Trésaguet.
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Of course, it was impossible to implement it for all Russian roads so the trial run was on Moscow - St. Petersburg Road.

***​
The distractions
Caucasus.

The border line by Kuban and Terek rivers was depriving the locals of some of their traditional pasture lands so, of course, they were not happy. But they could do little because the region was a loose confederation of the tribes lacking any semblance of a modern army. However, what they were lacking in the terms of organization and weaponry, they expected to compensate by the bravery and horsemanship. The main problem, as they saw it, were the Russian fortifications, which they had no means to take.
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In January 1764, several Kabardian nobles led by Atajuq Misost Bematiqwamet met with the representative of the Russian Kizlyar commandant N. A. Potapov and unsuccessfully demanded the demolition of the Mozdok fortress built by the Russians. By that time the Russians had Azov-Mozdok and Kuban-Kizlyar fortified border belts the last of which was going along the Kuban and Terek rivers, with over 30 fortresses and smaller forts and redoubts placed every 30 versts.
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In June 1767, Bematiqwa, by himself, started a military operation against Russia, but many other Kabardian nobles did not want a war and preferred to surrender. In the middle of 1768, fifteen of the Kabardian princes who decided to surrender reported to Kizlyar that they were ready to "take an oath" of allegiance to Russia. Misost Bematiqwa and some other local princes, refused. However, their main problem was an absence of allies. Sultan Mustafa III, in his capacity of a caliph, sent a secret message that he is approving a holy war against the infidel but in his secular capacity (which included a formal protectorate over the region) he did not have any intention of spoiling relations with Russia, not to mention going to war. So Bematiqwa and his followers had to go to war on their own. In the same year, Russian army fought a battle against the Kabardian Circassians with the support of the Kalmyk Khan's 20,000 cavalrymen, and were victorious as they destroyed the whole Kabardian army. After this the hostilities dwindled to the small border skirmishes with the settlements being burned on both sides but no meaningful changes of the situation.
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Caspian pirates. The Russian and Turkmen piracy on the Caspian had history many centuries long. With the Cossacks of Don falling under control of the Russian government, this component was gone but the Turkmens remained active. Peter I installed a severe naval order in the Caspian Sea, after which piracy came to naught. Warships caught up and shot the small boats of the "gentlemen of luck." But a decade after the death of the first Russian emperor, in 1735, when his Caspian flotilla ceased to be given funds from the treasury and it began to become unusable, pirates reappeared in the Caspian Sea. The Persian authorities begged the Russian government to take action against the Turkmen gangs attacking merchant ships from the islands: after Khiva became Russian protectorate the Turkmens formally became Russian responsibility even if in a reality most of them never were truly controlled by the Khanate.

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Turkmens on light boats began to attack coastal Persian settlements and smash them, stealing prisoners and cattle and the Russian government had to recreate the Caspian flotilla and establish the naval station on the island of Ashur, lying at the entrance to the Gulf of Astrabad. On this Persian island, Russian military sailors checked Turkmens going to Persia, issued them passports and took away weapons. However, as contemporaries wrote, the Turkmens still managed to hide their guns and, albeit on a limited scale, continued their activities.


___________
[1] “To save the Russian Empire from their ideas, decorate their leaders with the state awards” A.K. Tolstoy “merry month of May”
[2] This right meant little in practice because, without a serious financial backing from home, an officer simply could not afford to serve in the Guards: the “social” part of the service was too expensive. However, the graduate from a poor family still could choose placement in a prestigious regiment with a great military record.
[3] One of those listed in the Table of the Ranks.
[4] They proved to be cheaper than the pure-breed greyhounds and much more fun.
image of Greyhound

[5] Stolen from “Enough Stupidity in Every Wise Man” 😉
 
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Personally i believe that a war in 1714-1718, or a war around that time period would still happen given Ottoman defeat could potentially provoke them to seek an easy target elsewhere (Venedik) and Austria would feel confident to go to war, so i would say that war happens more, or less the same as it did in otl with same results. Treaty of Passarowitz was more, or less in line with what Russians would be willing to allow Austrians to get and British and Dutch (their intervention ended the conflict otl, this time they would be joined by Russia with same results) would see it as a balance to Russian acquisition of Crimea in previous war.

I also agree with the war of 1737,or in that time period not happening (at least one started by Austria), as it would cause tensions with Russia and i don't believe that Ottomans would start it , especially since in1739 entire fiasco with Nader Shah took place. Otherwise no war is scheduled until (1788 - 1791) and i don't see that happening.
Neither do I (unless I completely run out of the ideas). 😂
 
A source of turmoil and irritation…
135. A source of turmoil and irritation …

«На зов Пулацкого и Паца Встает шляхтецкая земля И — разом сто конфедераций...»
Т.Шевченко [1]
Peace of Olive. Oh, how peaceful and how beautiful it sounds! It was there that the great powers first noticed that the country of Poles was literally created to divide it.
Hans Friedrich Karl Günther
For a suicidal optimist, the poison gtube is half empty.”
Unknown author​


Definitions:
  • The Confederation (Polish: konfederacja) was a temporary political union of the gentry in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the XVI-XVIII centuries. Sometimes the confederation turned into a rokosh.
  • Rokosz (Polish: rokosz, literally - rebellion, rebellion) is an official uprising against the king, to which the gentry was entitled in the name of protecting its rights and freedoms. Nobility of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, who gathered for Rokosh, formed a noble confederation against the king.
Necessary background: The “dissidents” (not Catholics) represented a minority both in the PLC population and in its nobility. Which means that Russia, Sweden and Prussia had been interested in preservation of the liberum veto because this was the only way for the minority to impact the political process. In other words, these 3 powers, and the dissidents themselves, had been interested in supporting the “golden liberties”. However, their interests were at odds with the “patriotic” nobility which wanted preservation of these liberties but also was adamantly against the equal rights for the “dissidents”. The government of Stanislav August was more or less supportive of the exclusive right for the Catholics (but ready to some concessions if pressed by the dissidents) but wanted to abolish the liberum veto or at least to limit its application.
[If anybody has an idea how all these contradicting interests could be peacefully reconciled, I’d really like to see this scenario. 😉]

The obvious inability or unwillingness of the government of Stanislav August to solve any problems facing the PLC resulted in creation of the numerous confederations. First, there were 3 of them, all created by the “dissidents”:
  • The Slutsk Confederation was an alliance of the Greek Catholic, Calvinist, Lutheran and Orthodox gentry of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, formed in Slutsk, where Protestant magnates ruled, on March 20, 1767. In fact, the only Orthodox bishop of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth George Konissky played an important role in her activities, although he was not formally a member, not being a nobleman. The establishment took place in the Slutsk Holy Trinity Monastery. Confederacy elected its marshal - Y. Grabovsky. The act of confederation was signed by 248 people, including Belarusian Bishop George of Konis, General of the Lithuanian Army T. Grabovsky et al.
  • The Torun Confederation (Polish). Konfederacja toruńska) was an association of the Orthodox, Calvinist and Lutheran gentry of the Crown of the Kingdom of Poland, formed in Torun on March 20, 1767. Lieutenant General Jerzy Wilhelm von Goltz (Prussian separatist) was elected Marshal of the Confederation. The premature death of Goltz (he died in April 1767) interrupted his activities, which were continued by brothers, Crown Generals Henrik and Stanisław August von Golz.
  • The Radom Confederation was an alliance of the gentry of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, formed on June 23, 1767 in Radom to preserve the former state system of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth against the attempts of the new King Stanislav Poniatowski to strengthen central power. This one was strictly Catholic. On June 23, 1767, 178 ambassadors from the Crown and Greater Lithuanian Confederations gathered in Radom, who elected on August 14 K.C. Radziwill as Marshal of the Radom Confederation, a united Confederation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Martsin Matushevich became the secretary of the confederation.
Karol Stanisław Radziwiłł «Panie Kochanku». One of the richest and most influential nobles of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. The main estate, Nesvizh Castle, was located in the city of Nesvizh.
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Karol owned many cities, towns and villages, and his income was equal to annual revenues to the treasury of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Population of just Nevel and Sebezh counties belonging to the Radziwills amounted to 80,000 people.

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In 1762, his father died, and Karol took possession of the Nesvizh Ordination. At the same time, his father did not take care of transferring a number of starostws [2] to Karol. Wishing to get them, as well as the positions of voivode of Vilnius and Field Hetman of Lithuanian, which became vacant after his father's death, “Pane Kohanku” arrived in Warsaw. There he tried to bribe the first minister Heinrich Brühl to help obtain these positions, but did not succeed in it. Czartoryski were trying to take advantage of Radziwill's inexperience and prevent him from taking office as a Vilna voivode. However, Karol, returning to Nesvizh, began to influence the Sejmiks in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania asking them to include in the instructions for delegates to the Sejm recommendations to elect him for vacant positions. In the end, he enlisted the support of influential people and achieved this position. His next goal was the place of the Great Hetman of Lithuania, which was previously occupied by his father. In 1763, he launched a struggle for this position, but faced stubborn resistance from the Czartoryski. He tried to force the issue by using his private army but eventually situation was resolved diplomatically. After the death of August III Karol actively supported the Wettin candidacy and after election of Stanislaw was trying to oppose it by a military force but had been defeated and forced to escape to the Ottoman Empire. After that, the General Confederation condemned Karol in absentia and recognized him as an enemy of the fatherland on 16 counts. His property was sequestered, and the position of Vilna voivode was transferred to Mikhail Kazimir Oginsky. The Czartoryski were intended to take away most of his possessions from Pan Kohanka in order to deprive him of any political weight in the future. Karol was in exile for almost three years: he stayed in Bratislava for about a year, from there he moved to Prague (October 1765), and then to Dresden (February 1766). First, in August 1765, with the mediation of the Viennese court, Radziwill was offered return to his homeland, but with conditions to pay all debts and relinquish the post of Vilna voivode. This proposal was rejected, and Karol went to Dresden, hoping to later get the help of Frederick II. At this time, King Stanisław August Poniatowski and his brother Casimir began to consider forgiving Karol, which was negatively met by the Czartoryskis: they were afraid that the king hoped to receive influential support in this way to be independent of the Czartoryskis. Karol sent letters to senators and ambassadors to the Sejm of 1766 with a request to repeal the confederation decree. At the Sejm, several ambassadors tried to start discussing this issue, but the Czartoryski interrupted them. At the same time, Karol sought support from the Russian ambassador to Dresden Beloselsky and, through agents, from the ambassador to Warsaw Nikolai Repnin. Russian representatives supported Radziwill, as at this time Stanislaw August Poniatowski began to pursue a policy of strengthening the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. In April 1767 Radziwill got an official letter about being under the Russian protection and after return to his estates started establishing contacts … with the Russian opponents. On June 11, he was elected Marshal of the Podlasie Confederation, created by Hetman Grand Crown Jan Clement Branicki. A few days later, he took part in the proclamation of the Radom Confederation. On June 14, he signed an obligation to follow Repnin's instructions during the future confederation. On June 23, he was elected Marshal of the new confederation. On the same day, the anti-radziwill decree of confederation of 1764 was repealed. However, Repnin refused to assist Carol in returning all his former possessions, citing the need for an appropriate court decision. On October 5, 1767, Carol was elected Marshal of the Sejm of 1767-1768, although he was not an ambassador. A little earlier, however, he came into contact with people who were preparing the confederation against possible Russia's actions. In 1768, Radziwill was in active contact with representatives of the Bar Confederation. Karol justified his support for the Bar Confederation by participating earlier in the Podlasie Confederation, which called for the protection of "faith and freedom". [3]

He was extremely popular among Szlachta due to his life style. Having a huge income (according to various estimates, from forty to two hundred million zlotys per year), he preferred to live on a wide footing. At the same time, Karol constantly complained about his own poverty - in particular, he claimed that he could not afford constantly breaking porcelain dishes. This did not prevent him from giving grandiose feasts, to which thousands of bottles of the best wine and champagne, barrels of oysters, hundreds of pounds of coffee and other delicacies were brought. Karol did not seek to copy Western European fashion and adhered to old noble traditions, which impressed a significant part of the conservative gentry.

Needless to say that none of these confederacies achieved anything but the “traditionalists” still were unhappy with the restrictions placed upon the liberum veto and with the reforms in general [4] and assembled their own confederacy in Podolian town of Bar.

  • The purpose of the Bar confederation created in 1768 was to preserve all the ancient rights and privileges enjoyed by the Roman Catholic gentry and to resist the efforts of the Russian and Prussian parties to develop equality for Orthodox, Greek Catholics and other dissidents. The Bar Confederation was directed against the king who tried to preserve the state, and counted on the support of Turkey, France, Saxony and Austria. Initially, it was assumed that, thanks to the concession to Turkey of Podolia and Volhynia, Turkish troops would fight for the Bar Confederation [5]. Of course, under the normal circumstances, one may question patriotism of the people who were ready to give away a piece of their country to preserve their privileges, but in the PLC the attitudes and priorities had been quite “specific”.
Confederacy had the following leaders:
  • Warden of the Warecki Józef Puławski (he was elected marshal - head) with his three sons;
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  • Casimir Puławski, the most active of his sons, who replaced his father as warden of the Warecki;
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  • Adam Stanislav Krasinsky, Bishop of Kamenets,
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  • Michal Krasinsky, Ruzhansky podkomory. [6]

In the north of Poland, where the confederation opposed mainly not Orthodox, but Protestants, the actions of the confederation were led by its Visegrad marshal Józef-Savva Tsalinsky.

The military activities started immediately and Franciszek Ksawery Branicki, Hetman wielki koronny, had been sent to crush the rebellion (was it already a rokosz?).
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The band of Bar Confederacy scattered across Ukraine, committing terrible atrocities against the Orthodox believers. Massacres, mass executions of Uniate priests due to the inability to catch a few Orthodox priests, the destruction of Orthodox churches and monasteries, not to mention the mockery of Ukrainians, became a mass phenomenon. The answer was the people's Haydamak uprising. The uprising began in May 1768 in the area of the Motroninsky Monastery where a detachment of dissatisfied peasants led by Cossack Maxim Zheleznyak gathered.
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The uprising gripped Bratslavshchina, Podillya, Volyn and reached Galicia. Gaydamatsk detachments killed Poles, Greek Catholic priests and Jews in Podillya and Volhynia - in Fastov, Zhivotov, Tulchin and other places. More than ten thousand Poles and Jews took refuge in the city of Uman. Having learned about the approach of the Gaidamaks, the Polish governor of Uman, who defected to the side of the Confederates, sent the court Cossacks of Francis Salesius Potocki under the command of Ivan Gaunta against the Haydamaks ( Potocki himself was an opponent of the Confederates, so he was not in the city). But Gonta, together with his detachment, sided with the Haydamaks and from June 18, 1768 took part in the siege and assault of Uman, followed by a massacre that lasted two days during which more than 10,000 "official enemies" (Jews, Poles, Uniates) had been massacred together with 2.000 “occasional” victims. When the uprising had been suppressed more than 300 rebels had been beheaded, hanged, quarteted, broken on the wheel or impaled.

Before this happened a band of confederates pursued by the Gaidamaks fled to the Ottoman-held Balta. The pursuing Gaidamaks retreated, leaving a small detachment, which was attacked by the Ottoman garrison. In retaliation the returning Gaidamsks kicked the Ottoman garrison out of Balta and then defeated a new Ottoman detachment arriving to Balta and then looted Dubossari.

Now, this, put everybody into a very awkward position which could potentially lead to very unpleasant consequences:
  • Russia denied any involvement.
  • The Ottomans, encouraged by the French and Austrian ambassadors, were pointing out that there were some Russian subjects (Cossacks from the Russian part of Ukraine) among the Gaidamaks and that it can be considered as a violation of the Treaty of Karlowitz.
  • To which the Russian side pointed out that, thanks to the Austrian, Polish and Ottoman efforts, it was not a signatory of this specific treaty and that Russia and Ottoman Empire signed a separate Treaty of Constantinople that does not say a single word about the Polish borders.
  • To which the Ottomans objected that, no matter who signed what exactly, the Ottoman Empire is a guarantor of the Polish territory and that, anyway, there was an invasion of the Ottoman territory.
  • To which the Russian side pointed out that (a) during the last decades it proved to be a reliable friend of the Ottoman Empire but (b) if the Ottoman Empire values some Polish rebels higher than this friendship, then The Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca can be reviewed with the help of 200,000 Russian troops. Ship carrying this message was accompanied by by 20 ships of the line, which stopped just outside the Bosphorus. During a friendly card game in the British Embassy Austrian Ambassador was jokingly asked if Maria Theresa really wants to go to war with Russia and Prussia.
  • To which the Ottoman side answered that it never wavered in its friendship with the Emperor of Russia and will be satisfied if the Russian subjects involved in the unfortunate incident will be punushed.
  • To which the Russian ambassador assured the Grand Vizier that, as soon as they are caught, these criminals are going to be punished according to the Russian laws.
  • After which both sides agreed to consider the issue settled and Grand Vizier got some really nice furs as a present. Suitable presents had been exchanged between Sultan Mustafa III and Emperor Peter II.
  • In Moscow, ambassadors of Prussia and Austria had been informed that the PLC became nothing but a source of turmoil and irritation and that in a view of the readiness of Bar Confederacy to dispose of the Polish territories, the Russian court does not see why the PLC neighbors should consider the PLC territory more sacred than its subjects. Of course, if decision on this subject is being made, everything must be done in the orderly fashion and both Emperor of Russia and King of Sweden are ready to act as the mediators, if asked. However, first and foremost, the Bar Confederacy must be crushed and law and order restored. After this, or in parallel, a conference of the sides actively involved will be called to define who is eligible to what.



_______________…
[1] “The land of Szlachta raises to the call of Pulasski and Paz - and there are hundred of confederacies” T. Schevchenko.
[2] Estate formally owned by the crown but governed by an appointed administrator, starosta. The starosta would receive the office from the king and would keep it until the end of his life. It usually provided a significant income for the starosta.
[3] If somebody can make some sense out of his activities, such an insight will be greatly appreciated because I’m totally lost. 😢
[4] In comparison with the Polish Szlachta an author of “The treatise on the dangers of reforms in general” looked like a liberal extremist. 😂
[5] In OTL this looked as a beginning of a pattern: each subsequent uprising started in expectation that some external power is going to fight on their behalf (usually, the power in question was not consulted).
[6] Judge for disputes over the boundaries of estates.
 
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