Also, given that Conde is responsible for Maria Leszczynska ending up Queen of France instead of Russian Grand Duchess (provided she DID instead of Danish candidate), this family being used as a Russian vehicle of influence in France is interesting
Which to be honest is as silly as Marta Skavronskaya randomly turning up ITTL.Maria Leszczynska ending up Queen of France instead of Russian Grand Duchess (provided she DID instead of Danish candidate),
Which to be honest is as silly as Marta Skavronskaya randomly turning up ITTL.
Leszczynski was propped up ITTL but it happened AFTER the marriage was decided IOTL.
An interesting personage to end up as Queen of France is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyxena_of_Hesse-Rotenburg (which only takes a small butterfly of this girl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Christine_of_Sulzbach,_Princess_of_Piedmont living to 1725).
You wouldn't even need to invent alternate Princes of Blood for France (which you won't anyway) - just more manageable number of Mesdames, 3 instead of 7.
That's not an involvement, that's a marginal vector for influence (while potentially more important than Austrian).Thing is that I'm not sure that Russia wants to be involved in French affairs, especially given what's about to happen , not to mention that such involvement has more potential to produce more troubles.
Russia already got everything what it wants from France, their Influence in Poland is gone, with upcoming partition Russia should reinforce itself as a mediator of central and Eastern Europe and prove it's diplomatic dominance (beside it's alliance with Sweden Russia will have ability to play Austria against Prussia and vice versa). Poland on it's own post partition will have to play good with Russia and if anything most resurgent thoughts will be directed mostly to Prussia,Austria and Sweden as they have more valuable Polish lands opposed to Russia who has poor and mostly Orthodox lands (not that Russia will support such thoughts).
Otherwise only conflict with France could be in in influence in Ottoman court and even there it's unlikely that Ottomans will attack them on French beckoning, especially given that France doesn't want conflict with Russia and Russia can always find ready ally in Austria in case of this attack.
Otherwise trade relations are more or less minimal, so ultimately extending bribes and political favors to influence French court that's to far from Russian sphere of influence seems like needles waste of resources.
That's not an involvement, that's a marginal vector for influence (while potentially more important than Austrian).
A discussion of involvement would happen if say Polyxena of Hesse is a Queen of France, dies as OTL and there is a discussion for Louis XV to remarry to an ATL Elisabeth Petrovna (who would be 23 at this point).
Or he may not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duchess_Auguste_of_Württemberg
was to marry a French prince of blood.
So quite likely ITTL when her ATL sister is a Russian Empress, the match can be attempted.
With this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_François_Joseph,_Prince_of_Conti (another possible match is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Joseph,_Prince_of_Condé but he's a bit young agewise).
With the idea that MAYBE now Russians can make him a Polish king, though they are fairly set on the idea of the Family, and the law preventing the elections of foreigners passed, so we got Poniatowski instead.
That depends on how good the relations between the new Empress and her sister are, though. If they are minimal, why not? But this is to keep situation reasonably close to OTL when Paul I and Francis II were brothers in law, while using previous generation, and Prince Conde is the best of OTL proposals for Auguste.Bringing prince of French blood on polish throne, or making concessions there for that Vectors could theoretically be worth far less than said Vector on the French court . Especially since this has potential to reverse loss of French influence in Poland.
Personally i believe that concessions in Poland that is on Russian border and part of carefully planned diplomatic situation are far more costly than vector of influence in France that won't be Russian concern for a time.
Basically it's sometime better to keep your cards close to heart and not overextend while moving in to secure current situation.
I tend to agree with @Kriss that from the Russian position the closer French links do not worth trouble, especially as far as the PLC is concerned.That depends on how good the relations between the new Empress and her sister are, though. If they are minimal, why not? But this is to keep situation reasonably close to OTL when Paul I and Francis II were brothers in law, while using previous generation, and Prince Conde is the best of OTL proposals for Auguste.
Russian court can always pretend to not care, especially since unlike her mother-in-law Maria Feodorovna seems to be not interested in any kinds of intrigues, let alone the one on behalf of in-laws of her younger sis.
Agree to this. So either Auguste of Wurttemberg gets the OTL husband, or marries Conde AND Louis XV scraps the plans as he scrapped IOTL, as even in the world with Polyxena of Hesse as Queen of France he's still going to marry Dauphin to Saxony, and thus would veto anything that makes the Condes too grand.I tend to agree with @Kriss that from the Russian position the closer French links do not worth trouble, especially as far as the PLC is concerned.
To start with, IITL King Stanislaw is a nobody and there are absolutely no moral or political restraints in doing to the PLC whatever Russia, Prussia, Sweden and Austria want. Replacing him with a French prince may create at least some diplomatic problems; not that they’d mean much practically but why have them? Then, in this scenario the French court may want to back its prince by providing him funds for bribing the Polish nobility and creating at least some support base and, finally, a French prince (unless a complete idiot) is less likely to embark upon the course of reforms which in OTL resulted in Bar Confederacy and other events leading to the first partition because for him the PLC is just a foreign place which provides him with a royal title; the “reforms” will be limited to the things like establishing a theater, inventing the fancy uniforms for his personal Guards, etc.
Stanislav was, seemingly, a sincerely patriotic and wished well to his country but he was not up to the task and in OTL he was pushed by CII into suicidal political course. IITL the push is weaker but he still has the “good intentions” which will led him to you know where.
As far as other components are involved:
- During the decades of peace and extensive trade Russia is almost doomed to have at least as strong footing at the Ottoman court as the French and its trade relations are more important (food supplies for Constantinople). There are no OTL ideas about further expansion at the Ottoman expense, meddling into the Ottoman handling of its Christian subjects, etc. And it is a little bit too late for a party of revenge to argue for a new war: the political conditions which brought the second Ottoman war of CII simply do not exist.
- Internationally, after the 7YW France is of no serious importance for the growing Russian naval trade because the friendly relations with the Brits are more important both in the terms of having the ports to stop on the route, cooperation in the places like Canton and perhaps in putting a joined pressure upon the Dutch VOC. The same goes for the traditional trade: Britain is, by far, more important trade partner with whom Russia has a positive trade balance while France does not even bother to sign a profitable trade agreement. It may turn into a major wheat buyer in the future but so far nobody has a crystal ball and in OTL this future was rather remote.
That said, switcheroo situation "Polyxena of Hesse-Rotenburg as Queen of France, third wife of Polyxena's OTL hubby as his second wife, Maria Leszczynska as Comtesse de Clermont" is possible, plausible in the TL when in 1710ies Maria's father is a nobody, and does not entangle Russia with anything. The only thing that gets wildly altered with this is second line of first tier French nobility should you be needing to move any personage from later time to the frontlines, as if Maria still has the huge bunch of daughters as OTL, the Clermont daughters are not important enough for foreign marriage but good enough to marry into Rohans, Richelieus and so on.Agree to this. So either Auguste of Wurttemberg gets the OTL husband, or marries Conde AND Louis XV scraps the plans as he scrapped IOTL, as even in the world with Polyxena of Hesse as Queen of France he's still going to marry Dauphin to Saxony, and thus would veto anything that makes the Condes too grand.
And in fact, MAY veto Auguste's match to Prince of Conde for these very reasons, so she ends up in OTL Thurn and Taxis match, leaving the higherborn stuff for the OTL Paul's generation.
Which makes perfect sense as a) you can't just give Lorraine to a French prince of blood, even though descending from House of Guises; b) you CAN give it to his sonless father-in-law, which ensures the Conde-Clermonts inherit Lorraine when old Stanislaw kicks the bucket; and the first tier history of Europe looks reasonably preserved.Maria Leszczynska as Comtesse de Clermont
Grandfather? Because Alexey had some story with his son and ousters happen.In 1763 Peter II inherited from his father the empire which was in a seemingly good condition politically, economically and militarily which does not mean that there were no known problems: Emperor Alexey dedicated too much time and resources expanding the Russian Empire, absorbing the new territories and expanding the trade to start major domestic reforms even if such plans had been in work.
Well, so far there is no reason for it to be poorer but it is probably more unstable because so far the Russian troops backing Stanislav are not on its territory and he has no means for fighting the confederacy (or confederacies). Of course, it can be argued that these troops by the very fact of their own presence had been adding to the instability so it is rather hard to say if without this factor and without OTL Catherine’s meddling the domestic situation is better or worse but it does not really matter because the PLC is obviously very weak and its neighbors want to use its weakness to their advantage. Excuse for the Partition always can be found.So is TTL Poland more unstable/poorer than OTL or just only slightly worse?