No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

gold, iron and copper are widely available IITL Russia and it is more interested in exporting its own copper to China than to keep buying Japanese copper, bringing it to Manila and selling it to China.
True, but I was more thinking like this: occupy Luzon, mine gold, iron and copper. Take the refined ores to RFE, that can't easily use the resources in the rest of Russia. On the return trip, take furs and trade as you propose. Most players in the region wouldn't care if there were Spanish or Russian overlords, but it would be cheaper to Russia and it would mean a more sustainable RAC.

But enough about this, it was a tangent in the wrong direction apparently
 
Peaceful life in the troubled times
126. Peaceful life in the troubled times


1758.
On 14 October 1758, the day of Frederick's defeat by the Austrian forces of Leopold Josef Graf Daun at the Battle of Hochkirch, the widowed Grand Duchess Sophia (Sophie Wilhelmine of Prussia) died [1]. Although Frederick had lost many friends and family to death throughout his life, Wilhelmine's hit him the hardest. “He suffered from severe illness for a week following news of Wilhelmine's death and fell into a depression from which he never fully recovered.” [2] In Moscow all the proprieties suitable to her rank had been preserved but very few people had been truly sorry: she never seriously tried to blend into the Russian society and to her last days remained first and foremost he Prussian princess.

In secret, Alexey felt some relief: he was getting old and did not want any improper influence upon his successor. Relations between the deceased Grand Duchess and the new Young Court had noticeably cooled after Sophia got unhappy with Grand Duchess Maria’s “disloyalty” to the Prussian cause and with her own son they were spoiled when he abruptly told her that he is Grand Duke of Russia and not a subject of the King of Prussia.

So, the pro-Prussian party at the court went from a weak to non-existent and the ongoing war had been viewed from the strictly neural positions and the trade opportunities, which this war had been presenting.

Needless to say that in most of the aspects Britain remained the most important trade partner. In addition to the growing demand for the “strategic materials”, at least in 1757-58 request for the Russian grain sharply increased: the summer of 1756 was "the wettest summer in the memory of man" (a familiar phrase) and according to Tooke the harvest was "greatly deficient through the greater part of Europe." As a result, there were widespread food-riots in the years 1756 and 1757. The riots of 1757 resulted from the bad preceding harvest, though the harvest of 1757 was itself still deficient and once again an embargo was placed on the export of corn.

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OTOH, a need of the British cooperation in Canton and ability to use the British-controlled ports during the circumnavigations were to a certain degree a restraining factor in a natural desire to take a full advantage of the immediate British needs.

Spain also suffered from few bad harvests and was buying certain amounts of grain but hardly could be considered a stable big-scale importer of the Russian goods. However, there was a reasonably stable, if not too big, volume of the Spanish imports to Russia: mostly wine, fruits and colonial goods. And the good relations had been necessary to maintain the Russian presence in Manila.

France was in a relatively good agricultural situation and as a result not a meaningful importer of the agricultural products. It was also not too interested in other types of the Russian exports and could not offer too much in the terms of its own exports, except for the wines.

Prussia, thanks to Frederick’s policies of limiting imports, was of no serious value as a buyer and, while its agriculture had been negatively impacted by the ongoing war, promotion of the potato and turnip cultivation was compensating for food shortages. Thanks to the war Russia became an attractive alternative to the German immigrants [3].
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Trade with Austria was not significant enough to be a serious factor in the Russian politics.

In other words, out of the main belligerents only Britain was the really important partner but the previous experience demonstrated that even the mutually-profitable trade should not be confused with a true friendship leading to a reliable long-term alliance and some kind of the serious obligations.

1759 in Europe was pretty much “business as usual”:
  • In April the French repelled the British-German army at Bergen.
  • In August the British-German army defeated the French at Minden. The interesting parts of that battle were (a) the French idea to place cavalry in the center and infantry on the flanks [4] and (b) Hanoverian general Spörcken confused the order, advanced with the infantry against the cavalry and, contrary to everybody’s expectations, repelled its attacks.
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  • In November Austrian general Daun forced the surrender of an entire Prussian corps of 13,000 in the Battle of Maxen. This was a classic example of the prevailing strategic thinking: threatening the communication lines by spreading one’s own army instead of concentrating the force and crushing the enemy. To induce the Austrians to abandon the Saxon capital, on November 15 Frederick made the decision to detach the body of General Friedrich August von Finck from the main army, sending him to infiltrate the rear of Daun to threaten the lines of communication; the move, however, inevitably ended up isolating Finck's troops within the much larger Austrian forces, inviting Daun to attack him. Prussian corps was surrounded and after losing 3,000 capitulated.
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  • The French decided to invade Britain, had been defeated in two naval battles and had to give up an idea.
Not too many things had been happening in Russia except on the Far East. An attempt to negotiate with Japan permission for the Russian trade in Nagasaki failed. In response, it was ordered to establish the Russian presence on Sakhalin, which was, anyway, pretty much dictated by establishing Russian presence on the Amur Estuary.

This created a tricky situation:
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  • The Qing first asserted influence over Sakhalin after the 1689 Treaty of Nerchinsk by the border being established on Stanovoy Ridge. Qing imposed a fur-tribute system on the region's inhabitants. In 1732, 6 hala (clans), 18 gasban (villages), and 148 households were registered as tribute bearers in Sakhalin, – those who paid with fur were rewarded mainly with Nishiki silk brocade, and every year the dynasty supplied the chief of each clan and village with official silk clothes (mangpao, duanpao), which were the gowns of the mandarin. Those who offered especially large fur tributes were granted the right to create a familial relationship with officials of the Manchu eight-banner organization (at the time equivalent to Chinese aristocrats) by marrying an official's adopted daughter. Further, the tribute payers were allowed to engage in trade with officials and merchants at the tribute location. Tribute was supposed to be brought to regional offices, but the lower Amur and Sakhalin were considered too remote, so the Qing sent officials directly to these regions every year to collect tribute and to present awards. It was never spelled out explicitly in the later treaties that Sakhalin is now Russian but it was not explicitly said that it is not so the Russian side decided that it definitely is and that the Qing must stop tribute extortion from the Russian subjects.
  • In 1635 Matsumae Kinhiro, the second daimyō of Matsumae Domain in Hokkaidō, sent Satō Kamoemon and Kakizaki Kuroudo on an expedition to Sakhalin. One of the Matsumae explorers, Kodō Shōzaemon, stayed in the island in the winter of 1636 and sailed along the east coast to Taraika in the spring of 1637. In an early colonization attempt, a Japanese settlement was established at Ōtomari on Sakhalin's southern end in 1679. The Matsumae clan was nominally in charge of Sakhalin, but they neither protected nor governed the Ainu there. Instead they extorted the Ainu for Chinese silk, which they sold in Honshu as Matsumae's special product. To obtain Chinese silk, the Ainu fell into debt, owing much fur to the Santan (Ulch people), who lived near the Qing office. The Ainu also sold the silk uniforms (mangpao, bufu, and chaofu) given to them by the Qing, which made up the majority of what the Japanese knew as nishiki and jittoku. As dynastic uniforms, the silk was of considerably higher quality than that traded at Nagasaki, and enhanced Matsumae prestige as exotic items.
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  • Now, the Russians started landing on the Northern Sakhalin from Nikolaevsk-on-Amur. To add weight to the diplomatic and, if necessary, military activities, Siberian Military Flotilla, which so far consisted of the relatively small ships (brigantines, galliots, etc.), was seriously strengthened by the new arrivals from Kronstadt: 4 52-gun frigates "Pallada", "Diana", “Mercury” and “Thunder”, 44-gun frigate "Aurora", 20-gun corvette "Olivutsa", 10-gun transport "Dvina" and 4-gun schooner "Vostok". Lesson of. “Nadezda” and “Neva” with their puny guns had been learned: the “Asians” has to be intimidated to get some results.
At least for a while there were no military conflicts but the Russian fortified settlements kept moving Southward. The Ainu on the “covered” territories had been assured of the Russian protection against both Qing and Japanese… No furs for Qing and no Chinese silk for Japanese.

______________
[1] As in OTL.
[2] As per wiki. The depression clearly did not impact his military and diplomatic activities in any noticeable way and definitely not his eagerness for the territorial grabs. But probably he was doing all the above with ha. sour face. 😉
[3] About a thousand new villages were founded in his reign that attracted 300,000 immigrants from outside Prussia.
[4] It is possible that this was a subtle strategy by Marshal de Contades: the enemy knows that cavalry should be on the flanks so when he sees cavalry in a wrong place he’ll get confused (because what should be the center is actually a left flank) and easily defeated. It is all explained in some details in “Fanfan the Tulip”. 😂
 
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That's pretty early for gunboat diplomacy 😉
Not if you have the gunboats. Vasco da Gama started it in the XVI century.😂

Well, of course without the Paxton guns it may be not as impressive in the terms of producing a big “boom!” but it still better than nothing (which is what the other side has).
 
Is it possible for Russia to take control of Hokkaido given the lack of involvement in Napoleonic wars? Tokugawa shogunate took direct control of the island only around 1855, or so and island interior wasn't properly colonized until Meiji Restoration. That leaves plenty of times for Russia to increase's it's influence there. Thought that's far of in the future, but lack involvement in Europe will definitely speed up colonization of Sakhalin and Kurils.
 
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Is it possible for Russia to take control of Hokkaido given the lack of involvement in Napoleonic wars? Tokugawa shogunate took direct control of the island only around 1855, or so and island interior wasn't properly colonized until Meiji Restoration. That leaves plenty of times for Russia to increase's it's influence there. Thought that's far of in the future, but lack involvement in Europe will definitely speed up colonization of Sakhalin and Kurils.
Afaik you'd cripple Japan in the process. The food coming from there - and later the coal - is rather vital if Wiki is to believed.
 
Is it possible for Russia to take control of Hokkaido given the lack of involvement in Napoleonic wars? Tokugawa shogunate took direct control of the island only around 1855, or so and island interior wasn't properly colonized until Meiji Restoration. That leaves plenty of times for Russia to increase's it's influence there. Thought that's far of in the future, but lack involvement in Europe will definitely speed up colonization of Sakhalin and Kurils.
The usual question: to which purpose? It is XVIII century and the remote future is unknown. Sakhalin makes sense because it gives a full control over Nevelskoy Strait and allows a shorter route southward. Even then, only the Northern part is critical for that purpose. As far as Japan is concerned, the Russian goal is to be allowed to trade through Nagasaki: Japan is not expected to be a major importer of the Russian goods and, AFAIK, the same goes for its exports but to have an access to at least one Japanese port improves communications with Manila.

Siberian products, fish, crabs, seaweed, Sakhalin coal, timber, etc. could be successfully exported to Japan. For the Russian Far East, the import of rice, salt and other basic necessities from Japan was of great importance due to their high cost in the city of Nikolaevsk and other cities of Primorsky region. As you understand, the volume and nomenclature makes trade of mostly regional importance. Probably a relatively small volume of gold and/or silver (in coin): Russia was routinely melting the foreign coin to make its own money.
 
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The usual question: to which purpose? It is XVIII century and the remote future is unknown. Sakhalin makes sense because it gives a full control over Nevelskoy Strait and allows a shorter route southward. Even then, only the Northern part is critical for that purpose. As far as Japan is concerned, the Russian goal is to be allowed to trade through Nagasaki: Japan is not expected to be a major importer of the Russian goods and, AFAIK, the same goes for its exports but to have an access to at least one Japanese port improves communications with Manila.
Siberian products, fish, crabs, seaweed, Sakhalin coal, forest, etc. could be successfully exported to Japan. For the Russian Far East, the import of rice, salt and other basic necessities from Japan was of great importance due to their high cost in the city of Nikolaevsk and other cities of Primorsky region.
Given Hokkaido became the granary of Japan ( 1/4 of the arable land ) after its colonisation ( till the 19th Century is Ainu territory) , think you answered your own question.
 
Given Hokkaido became the granary of Japan ( 1/4 of the arable land ) after its colonisation ( till the 19th Century is Ainu territory) , think you answered your own question.
Shogunate took a direct control over Hokkaido in the XIX century but it was controlled by Matsumae family since the XVII (there was one revolt in 1789). Just by the reason you described, conquest of Hokkaido would most probably mean an earlier direct involvement of the Shogunate and a serious war while Sakhalin was at that time more or less Matsumae family affair not seriously impacting broader Japanese interests.

In OTL “After the arrival of Adam Laxman in 1799–1821 and 1855–1858, the Tokugawa shogunate took direct control over Hokkaidō in response to a perceived threat from Russia. Leading up to the Meiji Restoration, the Tokugawa shogunate realized there was a need to prepare northern defenses against a possible Russian invasion and took over control of most of Ezochi.”
 
Eastern borders
127. Eastern borders

Everything that is French must be in France and everything Italian must be in Italy. Otherwise, why do you need a border?”
The law is a law”
“In strategy, the longest way round is often the shortest way home.”
B.H.Liddell Hart
Where power is right, the law is powerless”
“Victory goes to the one who will endure half an hour more than his opponent.”
“If the problem can be solved, then do not worry about it, if it cannot be solved, then it is useless to worry about it.”

Japanese proverbs

Kuril Islads.
  • The first information about the islands was obtained by the Japanese during an expedition to Hokkaido and Sakhalin in 1635. In 1644, following the results of expeditions of 1635-1637, the first Japanese map of Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands was compiled on Hokkaido.
  • In 1643, the islands were surveyed by the Dutch led by Martin de Vries. This expedition made more detailed maps and described the lands. On June 20, 1643, the expedition discovered a strait between the islands of Iturup and Urup (now the Friza Strait). On the same day, June 20, Dutch sailors landed on Urup for the first time. On June 23, 1643, de Vries installed a wooden cross on a flat top of the high mountain of the island of Urupa and declared this land the property of the Dutch East India Company.
  • The Russians first saw the northern Kuril Islands in 1697, during Vladimir Atlasov's campaign to Kamchatka, and entered the Kuril land - in August 1711, when a detachment of Kamchatka Cossacks led by Danila Antsiferov and Ivan Kozyrevsky landed on two northern islands of the ridge - Shumshu and Paramushir Then, as the interests of the empire moved down the ridge, decades of "unsystematic" colonization of the Kurils were followed by Russian fur hunters, traders, industrialists. Ainu residents of the islands were occasionally declared Russian subjects and subject to Yasak (tribute); the archipelago was mapped. By mid-XVIII Russia nominally included the Kuril Islands in its legislative acts, but they were not actually managed by the state; strong control over the islands south of Urup, despite extracting tribute from their population, Russia could not establish. Did not contribute to the loyalty of the local population the abuse and ill-treatment by Cossacks, industrialists and merchants, who often ignored Russian laws on the unsupervised lands.
[In OTL official Japanese on the Southern Kuril islands started in the late XVIII - early XIX as an answer to the Russian expansion: at the turn of the century, representatives of the Japanese administration evicted Russians on Iturup, installed a pillar on the island proclaiming it a possession of Japan and organized guard posts here and in Kunashir.]
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With a newly-found interest on the Far East the Russian government considered it logical to establish a clearly defined and effectively maintained border on the Pacific. Not that there was, so far, an obvious threat to the Russian possessions but having a reliable fence around your backyard looked as a good idea and, anyway, what is a state without a border?

Time of the “wild East” came to the screeching halt when the ships of Siberian flotilla started landing on the major islands the Russian administrators and garrisons. The most “enterprising” Russian merchants and Cossacks had been sent to the mainland, abuses of the locals did not fully stop (this would be unrealistic and not even expected) but put down to the …er… “acceptably low level”, size of the tribute was lowered and its proper collection controlled. Of course, the officials had been not 100% honest and the merchants were cheating the locals on the trade deals but all these things had been happening in moderation to ensure loyalty of the locals to their new masters. This was easier to do on the major islands simply because there was not enough resources to cover all inhabitable islands at once.

Logically, the process had to start from the most vulnerable Southern flank, which also included 3 out of 4 biggest islands, Kunashir, Iturup and Urup, and, before anybody (means “Japanese”) could react, the well-garrisoned forts had been constructed on the Iturup and Kunashir islands with a small naval base set at Iturup.
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Of course, what is and what is not logical strongly depends upon the point of view and Matsumae clan was seriously worried with the competitors appearing on Sakhalin and too close to Hokkaido and daimyo Matsumae Michihiro sent a high-ranking member of his clan to find out what is going on in Sakhalin and informed shogun Tokugawa Ieshige about appearance of the Northern barbarians.

As a side note, on Hokkaido Isolation laws were not so strictly observed and the residents traded with Russians visiting the South Kuril Islands. So the ongoing events were not a complete cultural shock for both sides.
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Shogun, being of ill health and generally uninterested in government affairs, left all decisions in the hands of his chamberlain, Ōoka Tadamitsu. His his younger brothers Tokugawa Munetake and Tokugawa Munetada did not play any role in the state affairs and his 1st son, Tokugawa Ieharu (in whose favor he was planning to abdicate) still was too young (born in 1737 and in OTL his reign was rather unremarkable). In other words, the government was not ready for the drastic actions unless they were unavoidable. Michihiro’s decision to start with investigation of the situation was approved.

Daikokuya Kodayu (Jap. Ko-daya (大黒屋 光太夫 Daikokuya Ko) was a merchant who, together with other Japanese, was taken to sea on the ship Shinsho Maru and after landing on shore spent about 10 years in Russia. His ship Shinsho Maru reached land in the Aleutian Islands after a seven-month voyage in 1745. The Japanese landed on the island of Amchitka. During their stay on the high seas, one of seventeen crew members died; seven more died in four years of their residence in Amchitka, and three died in Kamchatka. In 1750, the survivors were transferred to Okhotsk, from there - first to Yakutsk, and then to Irkutsk. Under the pretext of returning shipwrecked to their homeland, a mission was organized to establish Russian-Japanese relations headed by Adam Laxman.
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During his stay in Russia, Daikokuya became friends with Eric Laxman (below his Japanese portrait), a minor local official who accompanied his in his travel to Moscow where e repeatedly met with Emperor Alexey and his entourage and helped in drawing up new maps of Japan.
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Now Laxman was on his way to return [1] Daikokuya and his surviving companions and, of course, to conduct a diplomatic mission. During the time spent together Daikokuya learned Russian while Laxman learned not only Japanese but also some important facts about traditions, which were, of course, quite different from the European and could led to the catastrophic cultural lapses. In his instruction it was proposed to use cooperation of the population of one of the Kuril Islands or Hokkaido to send an application for getting access to Edo and to pass letter to the Japanese government explaining the purpose of the embassy - to establish trade relations.

The current events proved to be even more fortunate because they provided an opportunity to pass a message through one of the high-ranking Japanese clans (which had a vested interest in profitable trade). [2] It was easily decided that, until decision being made in Edo, the both sides will stay were they are avoiding advances and any hostile moves.

Of course, in a view of the new developments Laxman’s mission could be considered as just the first step which, if general mutual understanding is being achieved, will be followed by a high-ranking Russian mission capable to discuss the mutually acceptable territorial solutions.

Laxman’s ship arrived to the harbor of Nemuro on Hokkaido when he and his crew had been received quite friendly and met with the officials sent by daimyo. Subsequently, officials admitted that they were afraid of traveling to Nemuro because from the Dutch theybhad repeatedly heard about the "cruel and barbaric" treatment of foreigners in the Russian Empire, but now they have formed a positive opinion about the Russians, which they planned to report to the government of the country, which for the same reasons was afraid to conclude an alliance with Russia. According to one of these officials, Tanabe Yasuzo, the Dutch will not like such an alliance, because the Russians have "everything the same as they bring," but the Russian state is closer.

Since for the first time a foreign power again wished to open Japan to trade, the shogun government perceived it as a serious state event. The Japanese authorities have given the following instruction: "If a foreign ship crashes, it is necessary to monitor it. If the ship's crew resists, destroy the ship and people. Otherwise, to deal with them peacefully, detain them and wait for the instructions of the Bakufu government."

Eventually, the imperial decree came with a permission to send one Russian ship to Nagasaki and with this permission Laxman sailed back. A positive result of Laxman’s mission was that “Detailed messages D. Kodayu and T. Isokiti about Russia convinced shogun Ienari and his government of Russia's benevolent attitude towards the Japanese, of its intention to establish good-neighborly relations with Japan without imposing trade with it by force, aroused their desire not from the Dutch, but directly from their compatriots to obtain the first reliable information about Russia.”

In order to avoid possible conflicts with foreign ships, the Shogun issued a new instruction to the leadership of the coastal territories: "...it would be undesirable if we, by misunderstanding, complicated the matter by acting too rudely ... Therefore, we draw your attention to not to apply decisive measures without sufficient grounds."

Laxman had been criticized in Russia by some officials for not using a good attitudes for sailing to Nagasaki and continuing his mission to which it was objected that “A. Laxman and V. Lovtsov could not establish official relations with Japan, because they did not receive powers from the Emperor, occupied a low position, did not have moral merits and diplomatic abilities...”

Now, it was the time to start serious diplomacy.

___________
[1] Terminology was very important taking into an account Japanese tradition never to release or exchange the prisoners (who were expected to commit suicide). But helping the guests to return was a laudable deed providing Laxman with some credit.
[2] In a process of fantasizing the whole scenario I occasionally found that in OTL (few years later) Laxman really sent his later to Matsumae Michihiro.
 
VOC and other problems
128. VOC and other problems


Denk aleer gij doende zijt en doende denk dan nog". [1]
The Dutch proverb
“Die Majorität der Dummen ist unüberwindbar und für alle Zeiten gesichert. Der Schrecken ihrer Tyrannei ist indessen gemildert durch Mangel an Konsequenz.” [2]
A.Einstein
Uneducated samurai confused origami with harakiri and died not only quickly, but also beautifully.”
unknown author
“When the enemy rubs his hands with pleasure, it's time for revenge if your hands are free!”
Stanisław Jerzy Lec​


1760. So far, the “knowledge base” from the Russian-Japanese contacts boiled down to the following:
  • Laxman’s expedition provided an useful groundwork for the future Russian-Japanese contacts but he did not, and by his position could not conduct any serious negotiations: in a society as sensitive to the “proprieties” and protocols as Japanese the successful diplomatic talks required not a ship commander but an owner or administrator of a big territory or some other high-ranking official.
  • It became clear that the Japanese are quite sensitive (in a negative way) to the proselytizing issue and specifically to the attempts of spreading Christianity on their territories.
  • Japanese attitudes toward the military activities, all the way down to the minor accidents, are much more serious than the western ones and this also applies to the fate of the prisoners. Which means that, unless there is a very serious reason, the direct military confrontation has to be avoided because patching relations after it happens will be very difficult.
  • There were certain tricky issues of a ceremonial which have to be thought through in advance so that the Japanese etiquette could be satisfied without a damage to the dignity of the Russian side [3].
  • While the Japanese officials engaged in the negotiations with Laxman seemingly developed a favorable attitude toward the Russians, they were quite open regarding the fact that there was a constant flow of a negative information coming from the VOC Dutch residents in Dejima settlement in Nagasaki. Which, among other things, meant that some alternative entry port (or ports) have to be negotiated because Dejima was completely under the Dutch control with the obvious resulting problems fir the Russian settlement and trade there.

Dejima was a small fan-shaped artificial island in the bay of Nagasaki covering an area of 120 m × 75 m (390 ft × 250 ft) or 9,000 m2 (2.2 acres), and is listed in old Western documents Latinised as Deshima, Decima, Decuma, Desjima, Dezima, Disma, or Disima. Dejima was built in 1634 to house Portuguese traders and separate them from Japanese society by digging a canal through a small peninsula. The Dutch (VOC) were moved to Dejima in 1641 and during most of the Edo period the island was the single place of direct trade and exchange between Japan and the outside world. Dejima was abolished after the Treaty of Kanagawa in 1854.
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On the administrative level, the island of Dejima was part of the city of Nagasaki. The 25 local Japanese families who owned the land received an annual rent from the Dutch. The island was linked to the mainland by a small bridge, guarded on both sides, and with a gate on the Dutch side. It contained houses for about twenty Dutchmen, warehouses, and accommodation for Japanese officials. The Dutch were watched by several Japanese officials, gatekeepers, night watchmen, and a supervisor (otona 乙名) with about fifty subordinates. Numerous merchants supplied goods and catering, and about 150 interpreters (tsūji 通詞) served. They all had to be paid by the VOC. As the city of Nagasaki, Dejima was under the direct supervision of Edo through a governor. Every ship that arrived in Dejima was inspected. Its sails were held by the Japanese until they released the ship to leave. They confiscated religious books and weapons. The Dutch were not allowed to hold any religious services on the island. Despite the financial burden of maintaining the isolated outpost on Dejima, the trade with Japan was very profitable for the Dutch, initially yielding profits of 50% or more. Trade declined in the 18th century, as only two ships per year were allowed to dock at Dejima. The chief VOC trading post office in Japan was called the Opperhoofd by the Dutch, or Kapitan (from Portuguese capitão) by the Japanese. According to the Sakoku rules of the Tokugawa shogunate, the VOC had to transfer and replace the opperhoofd every year with a new one. And each opperhoofd was expected to travel to Edo to offer tribute to the shogun.
Originally, the Dutch mainly traded in silk, cotton, and materia medica from China and India, but sugar became more important later. Also, deer pelts and shark skin were transported to Japan from Formosa, as well as books, scientific instruments and many other rarities from Europe. In return, the Dutch traders bought Japanese copper, silver, camphor, porcelain, lacquer ware, and rice. From 1671 to 1715, about 5 Dutch ships were allowed to visit Dejima every year. From 1715, only 2 ships were permitted every year.
The foreign merchants were generally not allowed to cross from Dejima to Nagasaki. Japanese civilians were likewise banned from entering Dejima, except interpreters, cooks, carpenters, clerks and 'Women of Pleasure' from the Maruyama teahouses.
The Opperhoofd was treated like the representative of a tributary state, which meant that he had to pay a visit of homage to the shōgun in Edo. The Dutch delegation traveled to Edo yearly. The lengthy travel to the shogunal court broke the boredom of the Dutch stay, but it was a costly affair. Government officials told them in advance and in detail which (expensive) gifts were expected at the court, such as astrolabes, a pair of glasses, telescopes, globes, medical instruments, medical books, or exotic animals and tropical birds. In return, the Dutch delegation received some gifts from the shōgun. On arrival in Edo, the Opperhoofd and his retinue (usually his scribe and the factory physician) had to wait in the Nagasakiya (長崎屋), their mandatory residence, until they were summoned at the court. During the stay they were permitted to visit the city, under escort.


Obviously, VOC did not enjoy a perspective of adding the foreign competitors to this cozy arrangement. Especially taking into an account that after 1730 VOC started getting problems due to the wide variety of factors:
  • There was a steady erosion of intra-Asiatic trade because of changes in the Asiatic political and economic environment that the VOC could do little about. These factors gradually squeezed the company out of Persia, Suratte, the Malabar Coast, and Bengal. The company had to confine its operations to the belt it physically controlled, from Ceylon through the Indonesian archipelago. The volume of this intra-Asiatic trade, and its profitability, therefore had to shrink.
  • From 1720 on, the market for sugar from Indonesia declined as the competition from cheap sugar from Brazil increased.
  • All trade had to go through Batavia, which was causing considerable delays while competitors like the EIC and the Ostend Company shipped directly from China to Europe.
  • Salaries were low, and "private-account trading" was officially not allowed. Not surprisingly, it proliferated in the 18th century to the detriment of the company's performance.
  • The high mortality and morbidity rates among its employees. This decimated the company's ranks and enervated many of the survivors.
  • The dividends distributed by the company had exceeded the surplus it garnered in Europe in every decade from 1690 to 1760 except 1710–1720.
The VOC consisted of six Chambers (Kamers) in port cities: Amsterdam, Delft, Rotterdam, Enkhuizen, Middelburg and Hoorn. Delegates of these chambers convened as the Heeren XVII (the Lords Seventeen). They were selected from the bewindhebber-class of shareholders. The Amsterdam Chamber with its 8 delegates was the most important one. Which was posing a big problem for everybody because Amsterdam was the main Russian trade partner in the Netherlands and now the Baltic interests of its merchants had been in a potential conflict with the Asian interests of its other, or maybe the same, merchants who bought VOC shares on Amsterdam Stock Exchange.

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Taking into an account that the Baltic- and Archangelsk-based trade with the Dutch was in the Russian interests as well, both sides had to tread softly avoiding the obvious but potentially dangerous actions in one place, which could backfire in another.

However, while Russian Empire had a single and effective ruling authority, the United Provinces did not: after the death of Willian IV in 1751 position of Stadtholder was formally held by his son, William V, who was still a child (born in 1748). His regents at that time were:
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  • Duke Louis Ernest of Brunswick-Lüneburg, from 1759 to 1766. From the death of William V's mother Anne in 1759 to William's majority in 1766, he was William's guardian and led the Netherlands' state affairs in his name. The Duke also was the Dutch field-marshal, an Austrian field-marshal and Protestant Generalfeldzeugmeister of the Holy Roman Empire. As a result of his administrative reforms, there was no efficient administrative device in the Republic, nor an equitable apportioning of offices.
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Anyway, Stadtholder had the limited and a real power laid with the States-General in which each province had a vote and which were continually in session (in Binnenhof, Hague) between 1593 and 1792. The main problem for that system is that any specific locality and, especially a major city like Amsterdam, could ignore with impunity the decisions coming from Hague. And, of course, VOC, which was still pretty much state-within-state, could ignore any interference into its internal dealings and ignore the interests which laid outside its colonial empire.

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So, as far as the Russian interests had been involved, pressuring the Dutch on the Baltic would not necessarily be an effective tool for influencing VOC behavior. An additional consideration was a current Russian relative naval weakness on the Far East. The last consideration was addressed in following ways:
  • An additional squadron of 4 big (52 guns) and 2 smaller (44 guns) frigates had been sent from the Baltic Sea to Nikolaevsk-on-Amur.
  • A big wharf had been established in Nikolaevsk-on-Amur: the guns had been shipped by the Amur from the plants in Baikal region, timber was widely available locally and other needed supplies had to be carried from the European Russia or, as in the case of the cables, could be purchased in Manila. The experienced shipbuilders had been sent from the other wharfs (both the big ones in Europe and small ones in Okhotsk and Petropavlovsk) with enough locals, Russians and the “natives” to do the low skilled jobs. Of course, a major naval buildup would take time and even then VOC could do a considerable mischief to the Russian merchant ships traveling from Manila to Europe by the Indian Ocean.
  • Consistently good relations with Britain (in exchange for some niceties) allowing to use ports in the British colonies along the route.
  • If needed, Swedish and Danish trade companies could provide an extra support at least in Canton.
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Anyway, to send a message, a major search for a contraband had been conducted on the foreign ships at St-Petersburg harbor. While (surprise, surprise) nothing was found on the British ships (good boys, but don’t forget to thank the port authorities for a timely warning), the Dutch merchants were not that lucky and had to pay a considerable fine with the illegal merchandise being confiscated (nothing personal but the law is a law). Not too big an event to stir an international scandal or to spoil the relations, just a friendly warning. 😉

Meanwhile, not to waste time, candidacy of the Russian ambassador to Japan had been decided upon and he was sent by the Siberian Tract to Nikolaevsk [4]. Even faster courier had been sent ahead with an order to the Governor-General of Dzungaria to provide a couple Oirat officers (preferably of the aristocratic descent) for the Ambassador’s retinue.

The Ambassador himself, Yevfimiy Vasilyevich Putyatin, was a descendent of the old Russian noble family, Adjutant-General in the entourage of the Emperor and a Vice-Admiral [5]. Besides the naval service, he already successfully conducted the diplomatic missions in the Ottoman Empire and Persia.
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In accordance with the earlier agreement, a single ship, frigate “Pallada” had been chosen to bring the embassy to Nagasaki. The ship arrived there in June of 1762 and it took couple weeks before the Japanese officials accepted the formal letter from the Russian Minister of the Foreign Affairs after which Putyatin was informed that it will take few months to get a response.
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Not to waste time, Putyatin sailed to Manila and arrived there in the late June.

On 24 September 1762, a British fleet of eight ships of the line, three frigates, and four store ships with a force of 6,839 regulars, sailors and marines, sailed into Manila Bay from Madras. The expedition, led by William Draper and Samuel Cornish, captured Manila, "the greatest Spanish fortress in the western Pacific". Their task was simplified by the fact that, due to the death of a former governor, Archbishop of Manila Manuel Rojo del Río y Vieyra was acting as temporary Lieutenant Governor and, not being a professional military, committed a number of mistakes trying to defend the city. On 6 October 1762 the British forces broke into the city and “the soldiers turned to pillage” in which the Spanish soldiers and the civilian denizens of Manila also gladly participated for the next 30-40 hours.
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Of course, “Pallada” was not harmed and the British commanders had a presence of mind to put the post at the Russian Consulate. From that point things started getting really interesting. Obviously, the looters had been looking for the rich victims with the merchants being the obvious targets. Few of those, mostly Chinese, found a refuge in the Russian consulate and among them was a rich and influential Japanese merchant Takadaya Kahe from Hokkaido who traveled to Nagasaki on his ship “Kanze Maru”. [6]
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His ship being looted and burned, Takadaya gladly accepted an offer to travel to Nagasaki on “Pallada”…



__________
[1] “Think before you are doing something and keep thinking while you are doing”
[2] “Most of the stupidity is insurmountable and guaranteed at all times. The horror of her tyranny, however, is mitigated by the lack of consistency.”
[3] This was the usual problem with the Russian, and European in general, diplomats sent to the Asian courts. The culture-related requirements had to be somehow reconciled with a dignity of a monarch whom ambassador was representing and, unless the specific Asian ruler was already beaten into a submissive position, a compromise could be tricky, especially when the tangible results had been expected.
[4] Unlike the usual travel, not to mention one of a trade caravan, a courier travel by the “tract” (a reasonably well maintained road with the post stations at the regular intervals) could be quite fast: on every post station the fresh horses and, if needed, food and rest had been provided for such a VIP.
[5] While not being a governor of anything, his rank was considered high enough to satisfy the Japanese demands regarding a suitable ambassador’s status. Of course, the OTL mission and resulting treaty happened almost century later so no European portrait, the uniform would be too anachronistic. Provided Japanese portrait looked vague enough. 😉
[6] This, of course, is a complete BS because he was involved in Golovin Incident, which happened many decades later, and his main operations were between the Kuril Islands and Hakodate (on Hokkaido). But his influence proved to be quite useful during Golovin Incident so why not IITL? Especially, taking into an account that the annual turnover of his trading house was commensurate with the budget of the whole of Japan.
 
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Diplomacy
129. Diplomacy

A diplomat is a specialist who is paid a salary for solving problems and difficulties that would not even exist in the world if there were no diplomats who create problems and difficulties.”
Martti Larni
“Diplomacy exists to be able to speak, and be silent, and listen.”
Talleyrand
On Putyatin’s return to Nagasaki, there was still no reply, so he renewed his threat to go directly to Edo. The alarmed Nagasaki bugyō urged Edo to accept Putyatin’s terms. Based upon the Manila Accident reported by Takadaya Kahei whom the Russians saved and returned with his crew, they are quite accommodating and friendship with their huge empire could be to Japan’s advantage.

Again, there was no response. Putyatin grew increasingly impatient and renewed his threat to sail to Edo, when a response came in the form of the officials Kawaji Toshiakira and Tsutsui Masanori, asking for a delay of three to five years for a counter-proposal. Putyatin rejected this proposal and chose Osaka Bay, which caused immediate consternation among the Japanese for its proximity to Kyoto. After remaining in Osaka Bay for two weeks, Putiatin set sail for Shimoda. Putiatin was met in Shimoda by Kawaji and Tsutsui, and negotiations began on December 22.


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One of the first issues raised was Japanese traditional concern about attempts to spread Christianity. To this Putyatin pointed out that two high ranking officers accompanying him (both referenced as the “princes” to underscore his own high status) are Buddhists and if Russia does not force its own subjects to convert, why would it try to do anything of the kind in Japan?

Then came a seemingly absurd but actually very serious issue of an etiquette. There was a seemingly insurmountable contradiction. The Japanese could not allow foreigners to enter the inner chambers in boots and, moreover, into the audience hall, where important officials would kneel on the floor. According to their proposed procedure, it was necessary to remove the boots at the entrance and stay in stockings. Putyatin did not want the representatives of the Russian Empire to look comical: in ceremonial uniforms, in a hat, with a saber and without boots! The Japanese insisted on observing their traditions, and Putyatin understood that this concession would make the Russians laughinstock in the eyes of the whole of Europe. Takadaya Kahei was desperate - an agreement could collapse due to a contradiction in traditions and a discrepancy in the concepts of etiquette. Then Putyatin found a compromise solution. He ordered the sailors to bring a chair and replacement boots from the ship. He ordered to leave all this in the hallway (there was no furniture in Japanese houses and, if they did not bring the chair, the members of Russian delegation would have to jump on one leg while changing the shoes). Then the Russian delegation had to walk down the street in the boots, deliberately rough, and in the hallway to change into other boots, which were called "leather stockings". The Japanese authorities highly appreciated this compromise: on the one hand, perseverance in compliance with their laws of honor, on the other hand, compliance and respect for national traditions. [2]

On February 7, 1763, the long-awaited Russo-Japanese treaty of friendship was signed at the Chōraku-ji Temple in Shimoda
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by Putiatin as Russian Imperial Ambassador and Japanese representative Controller Moriyama Einosuke
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signing the Dutch-language version (the official version), Iosif Antonovich and Koga Kin'ichirō [ja] signing the Chinese-language version, and Toshiakira Kawaji and Tsutsui Masanori signing the Japanese-language version. The Treaty contained the following items:
  • Mutual peace between the Empire of Russia and the Empire of Japan, including safety of persons and property of both nations.
  • Establishing the border between Japan and Russia to be on Kunashiri Suido/Catherine’s Strait (aka, Japan got Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai islands closest to Hokkaido) . Sakhalin goes to Russia with the Japanese having the fishing rights along its shores. [3]
  • Shimoda, Hakodate and Nagasaki to be opened to Russian vessels.
  • Shipwrecked sailors to be rendered assistance.
  • Trade permitted at Shimoda and Hakodate. Russians are allowed to freely visit the cities of Edo and Osaka for trade, to live in open ports. [4]
  • Russian consul to be established in either Shimoda or Hakodate.
  • Any questions or issues regarding Japan are to be determined by the government of Japan.
  • Mutual extraterritoriality for citizens of Russia and of Japan in each other's country.
  • Most favorable nation status for Russia.
  • Treaty to be ratified within 18 months of signing.
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On his return to Moscow Putyatin was elevated to a count, made a full admiral and appointed commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet.

Takadaya Kahei expanded his business by establishing trade between Russian Pacific territories and Hokkaido. He later developed trading routes to the Kuril Islands and operated many fisheries around Nemuro, a town on Hokkaidō's east coast. Takadaya is also known for his services in developing Hakodate. He repaired streets, cultivated the land and forested trees for lumber.

The treaty was ratified by the emperor Peter II: emperor Alexey died in March 1763.

____________
[1] This really happened in 1854.
[2] In OTL this happened during the proceedings related to Golovin Accident.
[3] In OTL Japan used the Russian difficulties (CW was going on) to get a better territorial deal.
[4] The last provision is from the next OTL treaty (1858).
 
Peace at last?
130. Peace at last?
It is not enough to win a war; it is more important to organize the peace.”
Aristotle
“Treaties exist in order for them to be fulfilled by a weaker.”
Karel Čapek
“If your friends ask you to negotiate with your enemy, then the traitors have already agreed behind your back”
Al Capone
The history of fanaticism is written by tears and blood; each page is written by them and dried on the fire of bonfires.”
Claude-pierre Boiste​


The Seven Years War was over. Treaty of Hubertusburg, between Austria, Prussia, and Saxony, was signed on 15 February 1763, at a hunting lodge between Dresden and Leipzig.
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Negotiations started there on 31 December 1762 because the sides involved managed to fight each other to a complete exhaustion without reaching the goals each of them had when the war stared. The treaty simply restored the status quo of 1748, with Silesia and Glatz reverting to Frederick and Saxony to its own elector. The only concession that Prussia made to Austria was to consent to the election of Archduke Joseph as Holy Roman emperor.

As a result of the war both Austria and Saxony were bankrupt and while Frederick had some money, Prussia was exhausted and, most importntly, his army suffered huge losses, especially in its generals and officers, who had been required to lead the troops (literally) by a personal example. The only gains were in the prestige area: Prussia emerged as one of the European great powers.

Austria demonstrated that its army is not as bad as it used to be but it did not return the lost Silesia, Bohemia and Moravia were absolutely exhausted, there was a clear need of the substantial reforms and no money, Still, it did not loose territory and scored some military successes securing its status of a great power.

Britain was a big winner and, geopolitically, another winner was Russia who did not fire a single shot in this war: French influence in the PLC was, for all practical purposes, eliminated. Now the new Emperor Peter II was facing a dilemma: what to do with this “gain”. An advice given by his father was: “let it rot as long as the wind is not blowing in our direction and you don’t smell the stench. When you do, act decisively and bury the corps.”

In October 1763 August III of Saxony died and the smell was there because the PLC needed a new king. Candidacy of Frederick Christian was not seriously discussed because he was considered the Austrian client and “nobody” wanted to disturb the fragile power balance reached after the 7YW. Frederick was not in a position make demands so in the letters exchange with his nephew he was very circumspect leaving decision completely in his hands [1]. Peter was quite sympathetic to the idea of choosing a Pole and it was more or less obvious that a choice would be a member of the powerful Czartoryski family (“the Family”), even if just because there were no other plausible options. Which meant choosing from one of two candidates:
  • Prince Adam Kazimierz Czartoryski, characterized by one of his contemporaries as "débauché, si non dévoyé" (French: "debauched if not depraved"), who declined the offer preferring instead to be a patron of the arts. [2]
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  • Stanisław Antoni Poniatowski who was “nephew of the Family” with a (formally) considerable diplomatic and administrative experience. Among other places he served for a while as a secretary of the British ambassador in Russia and then as a Saxon ambassador in Russia and in both capacities made a favorable impression at the Russian court. So why not?
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Stanisław Antoni Poniatowski, who now became Stanisław August Poniatowski, had been elected the king. The whole election process was on a rather silly side. While there was no viable alternative to Antoni/August, there was a noticeable number of the protesters who were simply against his candidacy without offering anything positive. There were even some minor clashes as a part of the traditional national entertainment. Of course, “The Family” immediately asked for the Russian subsidies, not because it was really short of money but because this also became something of a national tradition. Not being too eager to subsidize an ongoing circus, Peter II gave only 500,000 rubles [3] and let it be known that there will be no free cheese in the future. At the moment his warning was taken as just a form of speech. Anyway, during the convocation sejm on 7 September 1764, 32-year-old Poniatowski was elected king, with 5,584 votes.
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And, which was not a big surprise, almost immediately he proved to be a major disappointment.

Taking into an account that by the time in question the PLC (at least from the Russian perspective) was a completely insignificant entity militarily and economically, the main things requested from its king were (a) “not to rock the boat” and not allow his subjects to do this and (b) when he is “asked” politely to do something, work effectively to make this happening.

Well, unfortunately there was such a request, which made the first one rather hard to accomplish. It was an issue of the “dissidents” in which Russia, Prussia and Sweden had explicit interest. Logically, it would be reasonable to expect that a weak country surrounded by the stronger neighbors would try not to alienate these neighbors by oppressing their co-religionists. Not only wasn’t this a case but it was quite opposite: Catholic zeal in the PLC grew stronger.

Now, Peter II, Frederick II and Charles XIII were not exactly religious fanatics. However, each of them had certain considerations which could not be ignored:

  • Of course, Peter was a reasonably devoted Orthodox but he was ruling a multi-religion empire and pushing the Orthodoxy down the throats of his Muslim. Buddhist, Protestant and pagan subjects was not a recipe for a successful and quiet rule. But, OTOH, he could not to ignore forever the bemoaning of the Russian Church hierarchs about ongoing oppression of the fellow Orthodox Christians across the border. These practices has to stop. Preferably by the diplomatic measures.
  • Frederick probably did not give a damn, following principle that in Prussia everyone can save himself in any way he wants (as long as they are paying the taxes), but the fact that there were numerous Protestants on the PLC territory which laid between Pomerania and East Prussia could be considered as a Sign from the Above and to ignore it would be as close to the “heresy” as the Old Fritz could imagine.
  • Charles XIII probably would be inclined to ignore the whole thing but, OTOH, defense of the Polish Protestants could be considered as a part of the venerable tradition created by Gustav Adolph and his own father. Plus, it looked like the maintaining this tradition could potentially bring some tangible rewards (shouldn’t one expect a reward for a virtuous behavior?).

And, which was clearly a sign from the Above, there was a very aggressive idiot in the PLC working very hard on destruction of his own country.
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Kajetan Ignacy Sołtyk, bishop of Kiev (which did not belong to the PLC for over the century) and then bishop of Krakow was just a man for the task. In 1753 he was involved in a blood libel process against Jews, which resulted in 13 of them being sentenced to death. As a politician he was known to use unethical means - from nepotism through forgery of documents to bribing the local szlachta (Polish nobility) at sejmiks (local parliaments). During the reign of Augustus III of Poland, known to be the height of political corruption and anarchy in the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, he became one of the most important politicians at the royal court, working closely with the de facto ruler of Poland, Count Heinrich von Brühl but then distanced himself from him.

Kaetan Soltyk opposed granting Uniates, Orthodox and Protestants equal rights with Catholics (dissident issue), he issued a special manifesto, called for prayer for the preservation of faith and national freedom. The Polish nobility needed very little of an incitement to pass from words to the deeds and these “deeds” were along the usual lines of killing, looting and burning made easier by the fact the the Polish Orthodox belonged to the lower classes.

And here was a problem because the issue of the “dissidents” became international:
  • By the Treaty of 1689 the PLC acknowledged freedom of religion for its Orthodox subjects (“no oppression of any kind and no forcing to accept Catholic or Uniat religion”). Support of this issue had a strong backing in the Russian society. Notice that this was not an issue of the “equal rights” because the Orthodox believers had been practically absent among the PLC nobility. So the “rights” issue in the practical terms meant the the Orthodox Bishops, to be equal to the Catholic Bishops, had to get places in the PLC Senate.
  • One of the commitments made by the Saxon Elector Frederick-August II was to ensure freedom of religion for "dissidents" after he received the Polish crown. Of course, he did not even try to deliver.
  • The emperor of HRE was the guarantor of the rights of religious minorities in the empire, and the outbursts of Catholic fanaticism in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth caused Jesuit activity in Silesia and Hungary, where there were many Lutherans. In addition, it caused demarches from Protestant princes of the Empire, supported by England and Sweden.
But in the PLC the issue was producing a negative reaction bordering on a complete insanity and Soltyk was one of its most vocal opponents but even without him the PLC nobility was going berserk even at the mentioning of this subject and Prince Adam Czartoryski acknowledged that even bringing it on a Sejm would endanger his life. Being the king, Stanislaw August probably did not risk his life but, still, he did not dare to bring up the subject to the Sejm and for a while was getting away with the assurances that the next time he will be in a better position to do so.
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Russian ambassador in the PLC, Prince N. V. Repnin, kept reporting to Moscow that the only way to get desired results is to move Russian troops into the PLC because even the bribes will not work in this case. He got an instruction to keep bringing the issue but not push it and definitely do not waste money on bribes: soon enough situation is going to change.

Expectations within the PLC were that, just as with the previous rulers, “for a while” is going to stretch to “forever” but these expectations were too optimistic because their neighbors were getting increasingly inclined to find their own solution and even to make the Hapsburgs a part of it…


_______________
[1] As in OTL with CII on this subject.
[2] This is wiki version. According to S. M. Solovyev, in OTL it was CIIs insistence on her former boyfriend’s candidacy: candidacy of Prince Adam was rejected because he was too rich and influential to be a puppy. Of course, as was often the case, CII miscalculated because her preferred candidate simply did not have any influence and could not push through her pet project regarding the Orthodox bishops.
[3] In OTL CII gave 2.5 millions while, by her own admission, Russian treasury was empty. This, not counting the pensions given latter to “The Family” and other presumably pro-Russian magnates. Plus, she ordered the Russian troops to be present near the election site. A massive waste of the resources pretty much for nothing.
 
The treaty was ratified by the emperor Peter II: emperor Alexey died in March 1763.
73 years old. The Romanov record to be remembered.
But then the Lopukhin genes (ITTL saved in the pool) helped with the matter - Stepan Lopukhin, first cousin of Alexey's mom, had a handful of children to live past 70.
 
73 years old. The Romanov record to be remembered.
But then the Lopukhin genes (ITTL saved in the pool) helped with the matter - Stepan Lopukhin, first cousin of Alexey's mom, had a handful of children to live past 70.
So were couple of the OTL Grand Dukes. Then, add to the picture deaths from the unnatural causes, including an extreme stress in the case of NI, and we simply don’t have a reliable statistics.
 
So were couple of the OTL Grand Dukes. Then, add to the picture deaths from the unnatural causes, including an extreme stress in the case of NI, and we simply don’t have a reliable statistics.
IOTL we weren't dealing with MALE LINE Romanovs unlike ITTL, so we pretty much only have 17th century statistics to work with and exclude genuine disabilities.
The Lopukhin family statistics though works in favor of the late Tsar (and his offspring). And given that ITTL the Wurttemberg bride is unrelated to Peter II (as she's a sister-in-law to Frederick II niece and not her daughter), being born instead of Eugene Ludwig in 1729, the longevity is not going to be ruined by closely related matches either.
That said, Peter is going to have an interesting brother-in-law.
Having an Imperial Reichspost manager as your in-law is beneficial to spy networks and all such things.
 
Or he may not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duchess_Auguste_of_Württemberg
was to marry a French prince of blood.
So quite likely ITTL when her ATL sister is a Russian Empress, the match can be attempted.
With this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_François_Joseph,_Prince_of_Conti (another possible match is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Joseph,_Prince_of_Condé but he's a bit young agewise).
With the idea that MAYBE now Russians can make him a Polish king, though they are fairly set on the idea of the Family, and the law preventing the elections of foreigners passed, so we got Poniatowski instead.
 
IOTL we weren't dealing with MALE LINE Romanovs unlike ITTL, so we pretty much only have 17th century statistics to work with and exclude genuine disabilities.

That’s true and statistics is too small for any conclusions.
The Lopukhin family statistics though works in favor of the late Tsar (and his offspring). And given that ITTL the Wurttemberg bride is unrelated to Peter II (as she's a sister-in-law to Frederick II niece and not her daughter), being born instead of Eugene Ludwig in 1729, the longevity is not going to be ruined by closely related matches either.

Even better. 😜
That said, Peter is going to have an interesting brother-in-law.
Having an Imperial Reichspost manager as your in-law is beneficial to spy networks and all such things.
Thanks for this information.
 
Or he may not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duchess_Auguste_of_Württemberg
was to marry a French prince of blood.
So quite likely ITTL when her ATL sister is a Russian Empress, the match can be attempted.
With this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_François_Joseph,_Prince_of_Conti (another possible match is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Joseph,_Prince_of_Condé but he's a bit young agewise).
With the idea that MAYBE now Russians can make him a Polish king, though they are fairly set on the idea of the Family, and the law preventing the elections of foreigners passed, so we got Poniatowski instead.
Partition being an ultimate goal (there is already a beautiful map 😉), no need to get more players and factors involved.
 
Partition being an ultimate goal (there is already a beautiful map 😉), no need to get more players and factors involved.
So Auguste marries to Thurn and Taxis, though personally (maps discounting) Conde match is relatively better for her than OTL one (another goal is the Condes surviving TTL, as IOTL Louis Joseph has only a single male child with his wife, and Augusta was more fertile).
Also, if we try to relate this ATL auntie to the OTL Maria Feodorovna, her sibling NEEDS a high-ranked match (IOTL sister of Maria Feodorovna was a wife of Francis II of Austria - Prince Conde is lower than this but better than Reichspost manager).
Also, given than Maria is OLDER bigger sis and better married, Princess Conde is going to be a Russian vector of influence at French court rather than vise versa.
 
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