No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Timid proposal: An unnamed member of the House of Orange-Nasau, related to Wilhelm II (godfather?) attempted to travel to South Africa. A number of volunteers and humanitarian aid (caliber 7.92mm) were on board with him when they were intercepted by an RN cruiser. For completely incomprehensible reasons, a shootout occurred during the inspection of the "hunting expedition", preferably in Portuguese waters. The royal blood in question is one of the few victims, many witnesses, doubts about the legitimacy of the actions on both sides...
And Wilhelm was always ready to defend his loved ones to the extreme...
Oh dear. That sounds interesting. In a Chinese sense.
 
Timid proposal: An unnamed member of the House of Orange-Nasau, related to Wilhelm II (godfather?) attempted to travel to South Africa. A number of volunteers
Of course, people are going to a hunting expedition voluntarily so they can be called “volunteers”.

and humanitarian aid (caliber 7.92mm) were on board with him when they were intercepted by an RN cruiser.

A world-wide hunting expedition. Of course, they need a lot of ammunition and weapons to kill all these elephants, lions, tigers, bears (including the polar ones) and all other sorts of animals. And to defend themselves against the natives. The Cape Colony has to be their first stop.
For completely incomprehensible reasons, a shootout occurred during the inspection of the "hunting expedition", preferably in Portuguese waters. The royal blood in question is one of the few victims, many witnesses, doubts about the legitimacy of the actions on both sides...
And Wilhelm was always ready to defend his loved ones to the extreme...
Great idea! Definitely, a number of gross British offenses: stopping ship in the neutral waters for no reason, searching belongings of someone of a royal blood, dastardly murder of such a person. BTW, can the victim be one of the countless German royalties? Or just some young German aristocrat? This would cause a terrible outcry in Germany: the Dutch they may digest but one of their own princes is a different kettle of fish. As an option, this could be a hunting expedition of two princely friends, Dutch and German (or a whole bunch of them) and German is being killed while surviving Dutch tells story to the world. I’ll need the names but this is not a problem.

What a pity that I’d not be able to find photos or political cartoons to illustrate this tragic accident. 😂
 
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What if the Dutch prince in question is the ATL son of Princess Louise of France, the only sister of Charles II Bernadotte, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Orange
Born in 1872, a "genetic shadow" of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haakon_VII_of_Norway - certainly looks dashing enough for the setting.
Let's call him Charles Wilhelm after his uncle and because the Oranges are all Wilhelm-something.

Relation to Wilhem II?
Married to his niece https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Feodora_of_Saxe-Meiningen
With his father-in-law and Wilhelm's brother in law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernhard_III,_Duke_of_Saxe-Meiningen being companion of unfortunate Charles Wilhelm on a shooting trip.

That provides the necessary photos of illustrous victims and gives France additional reason to get involved as the Royal in question is of their kin as well.
 
Additionally if you need further motivation for Britain to act belligerent perhaps you could a fake a letter?

One example would be apparently there was a couple where apparently written to undermine Pratap Singh the king of Kashmir sought the aid of Russia for...reasons? Think the most rational was increasing his influence through the princely state of Chitral which ran through Afghanistan. However these fake letters despite the obviousness of it being a insane risks the British reacted as you imagine with a lot of paranoia.

You know maybe just one or two of the hundreds of Princely states in British sees something similar occur with them mentioning Germany and it hardens Britain's resolve.
 
What if the Dutch prince in question is the ATL son of Princess Louise of France, the only sister of Charles II Bernadotte, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Orange
Born in 1872, a "genetic shadow" of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haakon_VII_of_Norway - certainly looks dashing enough for the setting.

He does (except for the uniform but this is not a big deal) and there is no independent Norway so nothing is lost.
Let's call him Charles Wilhelm after his uncle and because the Oranges are all Wilhelm-something.

Relation to Wilhem II?
Married to his niece https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Feodora_of_Saxe-Meiningen
With his father-in-law and Wilhelm's brother in law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernhard_III,_Duke_of_Saxe-Meiningen being companion of unfortunate Charles Wilhelm on a shooting trip.

That provides the necessary photos of illustrous victims and gives France additional reason to get involved as the Royal in question is of their kin as well.
My only problem is that by 1912/13 they would be in their late 30s - early 40s, too old for being the young idiots. OTOH, who said that the idiots must be young?

Anyway, they could really go on a hunting trip to Cape Colony, which was a fashionable thing to do, even without an extra “humanitarian help” (what they could bring on a yacht would not make a difference, anyway) hence the age is not critical, and being drunk by the time of a whole episode, took the British actions too personally. One thing lead to another and we have a royal corpse.

As an option, the Brits may be aware of the trip which was intended to include a “political gesture” demonstrating the German sympathy to the Boer cause (like the idiotic performance of the wife of Grand Duke NN on French border, it was taken seriously both in France and Germany beyond its real merit) and tried to prevent it by intercepting the yacht, which on itself would be a gross political scandal even without a dead prince on the top of everything else.

Something along these lines. Does it sound plausible?
 
Additionally if you need further motivation for Britain to act belligerent perhaps you could a fake a letter?

One example would be apparently there was a couple where apparently written to undermine Pratap Singh the king of Kashmir sought the aid of Russia for...reasons? Think the most rational was increasing his influence through the princely state of Chitral which ran through Afghanistan. However these fake letters despite the obviousness of it being a insane risks the British reacted as you imagine with a lot of paranoia.

You know maybe just one or two of the hundreds of Princely states in British sees something similar occur with them mentioning Germany and it hardens Britain's resolve.
At least for now I want Russia “neutral”: there are some other plans for it. Anyway, in a naval conflict neutral Russia is more useful to Germany than an ally.
 
Anyway, they could really go on a hunting trip to Cape Colony, which was a fashionable thing to do, even without an extra “humanitarian help” (what they could bring on a yacht would not make a difference, anyway) hence the age is not critical, and being drunk by the time of a whole episode, took the British actions too personally. One thing lead to another and we have a royal corpse.
Feodora was infertile, and if Charles is unhappy in his marital life, a father-in-law of his (who happens to to be also brother-in law to Kaiser Willie) proposes a hunting trip as a way to relieve boredom other than Parisian "cultural institutions" which caused early demise of Charlie's dad TTL likely (but not before continuing House of Orange in male line - I imagine Charles being a second son (Louise having the OTL pregnancy pattern until 1879 when her hubby dearest kicks the bucket, so 3 nephews and 2 nieces for Charles II Bernadotte)).
A 60 years old Duke Bernhard and 40-years old Prince Charles Wilhelm have plenty of reason to get drunk away from their wives (many non-Royals tend to view their dads-in-law as good drinking buddies as well), and drunken frenzy can lead to rage. The victim is related to French and Prussian Royal families and is a Dutch royal, though almost no (unless you stretch an owl onto globe hard enough) relation to Russia so that Russians do not care much about incident other than making jokes about hunting trip away from boring wife and ensuing hilarity.
 
Unfortunately, I don’t have Chukovsky’s poetic gift to come with an appropriate poetic substitute. 😢
It can be alluded to. Me neither. Just realized that this may be a thing.

That said, was glad to help re. developing the poor unfortunate idiots in Afirca idea.

For added fun of this happening in Portuguese waters - we don't know who Charles II of France wife is, and for all intents and purposes she may be a Portuguese - they have an infanta in suitable age bracket who married a German nobody IOTL, so the ATL French Royals existence did not ruin any OTL lineages (the equivalent of Louise Bernadotte in Denmark was a Wittelsbach Swedish princess of random parentage, AFAIK the Swedish Wittelsbachs just like the Romanovs are existing in uninterrupted male line ITTL).
You don't care about this shit, I know. But was just thinking about state of things in France, and this princess became an interesting find.

But that adds nothing other than Portugal and France are reasonably friendly and that nobody expects stupid incidents.
 
From “very unpleasant” to “absolutely lousy”
357. From “very unpleasant” to “absolutely lousy”
“If a patient does not take a proper medical treatment and refuses to follow doctor’s instructions, the illness progresses into the second stage, the final one.”
General medical wisdom [1]
Be firm and courageous, never show weakness. Listen to everyone, there is nothing shameful about it, but listen only to Yourself and Your conscience. In foreign policy, hold an independent position.”
Alexander III, From the Testament to the heir.
"Everyone knew about Emperor Alexander III that, without wanting any military laurels, the emperor would never tolerate the any attack upon honor and dignity of Russia entrusted to him by God."
S. Y. Witte
"Alexander III led the Russian state ship on a different course than His father. He did not believe that the reforms of the 60-70s were an absolute blessing, but tried to make the amendments to them that, in His opinion, were necessary for Russia's internal balance."
S. S. Oldenburg
"Alexander III should not be portrayed short-sighted and dumb, he was a bright personality. Before us is a man who fits into the circumstances of his time. He ruled the state surprisingly easily and naturally, fully aware of the full responsibility of the monarch. The strongest point of his personality is honesty and decency."
A. Bokhanov
Вы в канаву упадёте,
Вы утонете в болоте.
Не ходите, погодите,
Воротитеся домой!”
[2]
K.Chukovsky, ‘Fedora’s Grief’
In the midst of perfect peace the enemy surprises us. Therefore to arms! Any dallying, any temporizing would be which our fathers founded; to be or not to be, is the question for the empire which our fathers founded. To be or not to be German power and German existence.”
Wilhelm II​

Russia. November 1912.
In January 1912 Emperor Alexander III got what he was considering a “boring influenza” which progresses into a pneumonia but by the end of a month his health improved and he stopped taking a prescribed treatment and paying attention to advices of his doctors. He did not look healthy but by the early summer his condition was seemingly stabilized to a degree that allowed his presence on traditional maneuvers near St.Petersburg during which he suddenly felt a sharp pain in a back. The doctors were called again and diagnosed noticeable kidney problems and recommended to move in a dryer climate of Białowieża hunting estate, which was done but as soon as he began feeling better Alexander went hunting, got cold and his condition began deteriorating again aggravated by the neglect of the doctors’ advices and overburdening with state work. More medics had been invited and upon their recommendation he moved into a warmer climate of the Crimea but it did not help. On November 1st the shocking new came from Livadia Palace: Emperor Alexander III died.

Timing of his death was extremely unfortunate: so far, the ongoing military conflicts had been kept reasonably localized (or “compartmentalized”) to a great degree thanks to his strong foreign policy but accession of Nicholas created uncertainty and speculations in this area because nobody was certain about his views on a foreign policy and existing alignments.
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What was known abroad about the new Emperor? Well, not too much:
  • He was seemingly a good-natured person and almost definitely a less stronger and resolute figure than his father.
  • Unlike his father, he was traveling abroad extensively.
  • He was a prominent patron of the Russian movie industry and a ballet, was interested in the automobiles but hardly was deeply involved in the Russian domestic affairs. However, seemingly, he highly valued Witte and Stolypin.
  • For a while, he was deeply involved in the Far Eastern affairs and, notwithstanding the unfortunate accident, was supporting Russian-Japanese alignment.
  • In the military and naval issues he was an outspoken supporter of Grand Duke Alexander Mikhailovich and other proponent of the technological innovations while making warranted and unwarranted critical remarks about the old generation of the Russian admirals and generals.
  • Pobedonostsev considered him too frivolous and not religious enough.
  • Russian intelligencia did not have any clear opinion beyond the famous epigram referencing incident in Japan [3] and a general approval of his movies-related activities.
  • Was friendly but not too close with his German brother-in-law.
  • It was known that Alexander, when his health already seriously deteriorated, had few conversations with his heir but substance of these conversations was not known and it was anybody’s guess if Nicholas is going to follow his father’s course or to chose one of his own.
It was expected that, with the pending funeral, the year-long mourning, coronation and all types of the domestic and international adjustments related to accession of a new monarch, Russian Empire, at least for an year, is not going to be active internationally. Based upon this scant information and a wishful thinking, the wrong conclusions were almost inevitable.

Optimistic expectations
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The first wrong conclusion was made by King Constantine of Greece and his PM Venizelos who decided that the new regime in Russia is not going to interfere into the Balkan affairs or, perhaps, is going to be sympathetic to the idea of breaking the Ottoman Empire. After all, there was a vocal court party led by the Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich (married to Princess Anastasia of Montenegro) and Grand Duke Peter Nikolaevich (married to Princess Milica of Montenegro), which preached breaking of the OE and the direct Russian annexation of the Straits. Grand Duke NN was inspector-general of the Russian cavalry and in this capacity proved to be quite competent and even popular. He was also considered the top military authority in Romanov family, which was not really a big compliment. Grand Duke PN and his wife were known only as the adherents of a mystic cult nick-named "the black peril", a group interested in the occult and characterized by Felix Yusupov as “the central point of the powers of evil”. Two Montenegrin sisters, together with their husbands, had been routinely referenced at the court as “Montenegrin Gang” and behaved accordingly.

Alexander III was keeping them in check but it was expected that a new emperor would not be able to stand up to the pressure and purely physical dominance of NN: while it was pretty much impossible to physically dominate a huge person like the the late emperor, NII was rather short and NN was over 2 meters tall.
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Based upon all these considerations, Greece joined the League even if there was no agreement with Bulgaria regarding sharing of the future spoils.

Russia
Now the “Gang” was making very loud noises regarding the need to help the Slavic brothers and to put a cross back on the St.Sophia and giving some unwarranted assurances that this is what is going to happen in a near future. This was their first mistake: NII considered himself the only person entitled to making any statements on behalf of the Russian Empire. The second mistake was making too much noice about Empress Alexandra being German: being a good family man, Nicholas was not going to tolerate attacks on his wife.

Contrary to the expectations and speculations, NII did not cave under pressure from the “Gang”. His was not a naturally strong character like his father but he was not stupid and absolutely hated an idea of being pressured into doing something by the people to whom he did not feel any respect, no matter how tall and loudmouthed they are. The members of the “Gang” had been ridiculed in the press for their occultism and attempts to turn the Russian Empire into a vassal of Montenegro. The inconvenient questions about financial aspect of NN’s activities as inspector general of the cavalry had been raised in the Duma and, “to avoid scandal”, Grand Duke NN was sent to inspect cavalry in the Asian military districts and PN, due to his complete uselessness, was just ordered to stay, with his wife, in his estate near Moscow until further notice.

The German, French, Austrian, Hungarian and Ottoman ambassadors had been reassured in the Russian adherence to the existing course and readiness to support the Ottoman territorial integrity by all means necessary, including the military ones. These assurances had been followed with the secret discussions regarding the plan of the future actions.

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General situation.
Austria and Hungary were ready to move troops into the Serb-populated OE territories, and, as the only domestic success of the Ottoman government, the Albanians settled for just an autonomy and the Rumania remained loyal: Prince of Romania, Karl of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, already was de facto independent ruler, had nothing tangible to gain by joining the rebellion but could lose if a stronger victorious Bulgaria will try to take from him Dobrogea with its port of Constanta and control over mouth of the Danube. Plus, he was much closer aligned to the German and Russian foreign policies than members of the Balkan League.

By 1912 both Serbia and Bulgaria used their broad autonomy status (which was pretty much e facto independence) and a general ineptitude of the governments of Abdul Hamid II and then Mehmed V to get strong armies of their own and were looking for both a complete independence and territorial expansions. Bulgaria was planning to get Macedonia and Serbia was going to expand all the way to the north of the Shar Mountains. The intervening area was agreed to be "disputed" and would be arbitrated by the Tsar of Russia in the event of a successful war against the Ottoman Empire (which was taking Russian pro-Slavic position for granted and, moreover, was making it a dog wagged by its tail). It was different with Greece, which also wanted (among other things) Macedonia, but this issue was left in a diplomatic limbo with each of the interested parties expecting to get there first and declare possession by the right of occupation.

Armies of the League (immediately available):
  • Bulgarian army - 300,000 people 624 guns (could raise up to 100,000 more).
  • The Greek army -150,000 people with 336 guns (approximately the same number of the reserve troops available).
  • Montenegrin Army - 22,000 48 field guns, 40 siege guns (approximately 30,000 more were in a process of being mobilized).
  • Serbian army - 160,000 men, 624 guns.
    Total: 632,000 people with 1,632 field and 40 siege guns
Naval forces of the League:
  • Bulgaria - 6 torpedo boats on the Black Sea.
  • Greece - one modern armored cruiser, 3 old battleships of Hydra class and 14 destroyers, including 6 new ones.
Aerial forces:
  • Bulgaria - 14 airplanes and 1 dirigible.
As a cherry on the top, there was an ongoing rebellion in Albania: the Albanians hated the Serbs but wanted to get autonomy and return of Abdul Hamid.

Ottoman Empire, in theory, could raise up to 750,000 troops with 2,318 guns but its mobilization was slow, only few divisions from Asia Minor came in time and the army itself was, once again, passing through the reforms which should be completed only by 1915. When the League attacked, it had ready between 445,000 with 898 guns and these troops were stretched over a very long defensive perimeter with, not a big surprise, fortifications mostly being incomplete. It also had anywhere between 388 and 566 machine guns of a wide variety of types.

Ottoman Navy:
Before arrival of Goeben and Breslau, Ottomans acquired two old Brandenburg-class pre-dreadnought battleships, which became Barbaros Hayreddin and Turgut Reis. Along with the cruisers Hamidiye and Mecidiye, both ships were to form the core of the Ottoman battlefleet. By the summer of 1912, however, they were already in poor condition because of chronic neglect: the rangefinders and ammunition hoists had been removed, the telephones were not working, the pumps were corroded, and most of the watertight doors could no longer be closed. Even with the hasty repairs the Ottoman Empire could rely upon the two former German cruisers and good graces of the Russian Navy. On a cheerful side, each of these two components would be enough to destroy everything that the League had afloat.

The Balkan War.
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The hostilities started on March 25 when the Montenegrin troops without declaration of war successfully attacked the Ottomans. Other members of the League followed and had been quite successful. It became clear that the Ottoman troops in their present condition are hardly capable of a successful fighting. As one of their generals put it, “It's not troops, it's bastards! Soldiers only think about how to get to Istanbul as soon as possible, where they are attracted by the smell of Constantinople cuisines. It's impossible to defend yourself successfully with such troops...”
Of course, in some places the Ottomans had been putting a stubborn resistance and even tried to attack but they had been outmanned, outgunned, outgeneralled and, quite often, out of ammunition.

The League looked as a certain winner. For a while…

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On April 25 the Greek army was approaching the city of Thessaloniki, a major trading port where there were many foreign consuls. Upon learning of the approach of the Greek army, they asked the commandant of the city to surrender without a fight, as they feared the destruction and looting of Thessaloniki. Commandant, in charge of a garrison 25,000 strong, was inclined to follow the advice but decision was taken out of his hands: the approaching Russian squadron, without bothering with any communications, started shelling the Greek camp located close to the coast. Commander of the Greek Army of Thessaly, Lieutenant-General Panagiotis Danglis [4], had in his disposal up to 100,000 men and considerable part of that force was near the city but an active involvement of a Great Power raised a number of questions. To start with, was Russian Empire at war with Greece? Probably it was but the general did not have any information on this account.

If one keeps waving a white flag long enough, this would be noticed sooner or later and eventually the Russian barrage stopped and a destroyer approached the coast to take the Greek messenger and transport him to the Empress Maria, a flagship of Admiral Ebergard, Commander of the Black Sea Naval Forces. The news which the messenger brought back were not very cheerful; the war was, indeed, declared and the Russian admiral is intended to keep shooting at the Greek troops as long as they are within the range of his guns. And, in case general Danglis did not yet got these news, the cruiser Georgios Averof had been sunk by Yavuz Sultan Selim and France is at war with Greece as well. And, just FYI, if the Greek troops are going to enter the city, by storm or due to the garrison’s capitulation, the admiral will order bombardment of the city as a fair target and the Greeks will be held responsible for the civilian and especially international losses. Anyway, the commandant already received an order to defend the city.

Commandant, indeed, received such an order (the admiral being top ranking allied commander on the spot) together with a gentle warning that disobedience will be treated as a treason by the Ottoman government. The garrison troops, watching chaos in the Greek camp and being stimulated by a promise of execution on the spot, also displayed at least some willingness to fight. On the other side of the equation an idea of storming the city under barrage of a heavy naval artillery did not look very attractive but general Danglis still was ready to try, reasonably expecting that if he procrastinate, the Bulgarian forces will reach the city and it is going to be lost for Greece. However, as the first step he had to relocate his troops placing them on a land side of the city. Of course, they were still within a range of the reasonably big guns but the fire, even corrected by a naval aviation, which was as of now flying over the Greek camp dropping small bombs, would not be too effective. Not that the whole thing looked now too important in a changed geopolitical situation. General decided to inform the government and wait for the instructions.

In the Athens two main proponents of the war were desperately trying to figure the way out of the existing situation while Piraeus was shelled by the Ottoman squadron. By itself this was not such a big deal but, with more information arriving, situation started looking quite bleak even if the direct attack on Greece’s mainland looked unlikely. But if Bulgaria is going to be kicked out of war, then the Ottomans, with the reinforcements from Asia Minor and a naval support, can invade Greece. Chances are that the Crete can be lost: now the powers may disregard the humanitarian considerations and allow the Ottomans to conduct a wholesale slaughter of the active opposition.

The Bulgarian army, having approximately 2:1 numeric advantage and better armed and trained troops, had been spectacularly successful in their advance along all front and already besieged Edrine when the 2nd Squadron of the Black Sea fleet led by just completed battleship Alexander III (second ship of Empress Maria class) bombarded Varna.

With Bulgaria not being an independent state and, formally, just a rebelling principality of the Ottoman Empire, nobody bothered with the declaration of war and Prince Ferdinand was taken completely by surprise.
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A naval attack on the main port of the principality was a thing bad enough but, to make things more ominous, it was followed by a massive landing of the Russian troops. The 1st wave consisted of two army corps and was carried practically unopposed. The brave crews of the torpedo boats launched a suicidal attack with a predictable result: all of them had been sunk by the Russian destroyers.

To transport almost 50,000 troops with artillery, supplies and all other equipment, it was necessary to commandeer not just most of the available Russian merchant ships in Black Sea ports but also quite a few Ottoman ships and, with blessing of Emperor Charles II, a number of the French merchant ships in the port of Odessa. Upon unloading, they had been steaming back to load more troops and soon enough it was enough of them to occupy Burgos, the second biggest Bulgarian port.

With practically all mobilized Bulgarian forces being engaged against the Ottomans, Prince Ferdinand simply did not have enough immediately available troops to push the landed Russians into the sea or even contain them in the coastal area and it soon was found that the advance contingents of a much greater Russian force are already marching through the Rumanian territory with a full cooperation of Carol I Prince of Romania (second from the left, below). Most probably, Prince Carol expected, as a payment for his services. a piece of Bulgaria. Perhaps even Varna. Or Varna and Burgos, thus cutting Bulgaria from the sea. But perhaps he was ready to accept status quo with some monetary compensation. These details did not matter as long as he was acting against the Bulgarian interests.
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Mobilization of the Bulgarian reserves had been called but it would take time and was not going to produce the numbers adequate for the task because it looked like the new Russian Emperor was fully intended to apply an overwhelming force to show who is the boss on the Balkans and ti minimize his own losses. And this could easily end very bad for Bulgaria. Besides, who said that the Powers involved will not decide to replace hm by some other German (or not German) prince?

There was seemingly still some time: the Russian troops had to march across Rumania and to be transported by the sea, not just appear on the Bulgarian border by a wave of a magic wand. And they’d have to cross the Danube. So all available contingents had been sent to the Danube and those on the front had been ordered to push more aggressively in a hope that the Ottomans will break before help arrives. But would they ‘break’ with an expected arrival of what started looking as at least 200 - 300,000 Russian troops and a complete naval dominance? With Emperor Nicholas being unexpectedly serious and, seemingly, acting in concert with France, Germany, Austria and Hungary, who can guarantee that Nicholas is not going to deploy a whole million?

The part regarding speed of the Russian arrival was quite valid and, while preparations for such an eventuality had started during the reign of AIII, there were no logistical miracles and moving hundreds thousand troops was a complicated process even without a full mobilization. However, preparation of an airfield in the Romanian Craiova was not such a big deal and a distance between Craiova and Sofia is only 184 km as crow (or “Ilya Muromets”) flies, which is just fine for a plane that can fly over 600km without a refueling. Of course, 800 kg of bombs carried by a single plane is not such a big deal but when day by day 30 planes are dropping over 20 tons of explosives on your capital, this becomes very unpleasant on more than one account and you may even began to consider an alternative course of actions.

On the Serbian-Montenegrin front situation was worse. Prince Peter of Serbia found his territory under attack from the north by a theoretically improbable combination of the Hungarian and Austrian forces with Belgrade being besieged and him not having troops to stop the enemies.
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Hope for the uprisings in Hungary and Austria proved to be a wishful thinking and, even with the Ottomans in front of his armies retreating, these victories were of no use if his territory was invaded. The invading forces were, so far, rather limited because neither Austria nor Hungary had time for a full mobilization and Austria also had to maintain serious military presence on Italian border. However, the invaders’ numbers kept growing and while the Serbs were not lacking in bravery, they were short of the weapons and the regular troops.
Even the Montenegrin King Nicholas started losing his usual optimism.

The Netherlands. Perils of hunting.
As in a fairy tale, there was a prince. Not exactly Prince Charming but this is not important. The important thing was that this prince, Charles Wilhelm, was a son of Princess Louise of France, the only sister of Emperor of France Charles II Bernadotte, and William Prince of Orange. To add to the picture, he was married to the Princess Feodora of Saxe-Meiningen, a nice of Kaiser Wilhelm II [5] and, of course, of the Alexandra Feodorovna, the Empress of Russia. In other words, the Prince was “everybody’s nephew”. He was wealthy, his wife was beautiful but the things were a little bit …er… complicated because of the “special relations” between the Prince and his father-in-law, Bernhard, heir to the reigning duke of Saxe-Meiningen.

Not that the wives objected but the husbands wanted, from time to time, to have some time away from a family life [6] and, as befitting the true macho men, they decided to go on a hunting trip to Africa. To be specific, to the Dutch Cape Colony. Of course, they were aware of the fighting that was going on to the north of the colony but what exactly did this had to do with them? They hired a yacht called “Panther”, big and presentable enough to fit their status, loaded rifles, ammunition, a lot of booze and other necessities, invited few mutual friends as a company, hoisted flag of the Duchy of Saxe-Meiningen (as a heir to the reigning duke, Bernhard had a superior rank) and happily sailed to their destination.

By that time, the British government, being understandably pissed off with the flow of weaponry and volunteers to the Boer Republics, decided to restore the old practice of stopping and searching the neutral ships (with the Boers not having access to the coast, everything was carried by the third party ships by definition) going in a suspected direction. Taking into an account that unrestricted application of this practice may result in the unpleasant consequences like closing Suez canal to all British ships and/or banning the British merchant ships from the Black and Baltic Sea or even from the US ports, captain of the RN had been ordered to act judiciously. Which meant, don’t stop ships of the Great Powers and also Swedish, Danish and Dutch. Unless they behave suspiciously (whatever this may mean).

Protracted patrolling off the coast of Portuguese West Africa had been quite boring, especially taking into an account that a list of those whom you can’t stop was much longer than a list of those whom you can so it is not a big surprise that combination of a heat, crumpled accommodations, lousy food and prolonged seemingly pointless cruising in the open sea made the crew of a British light cruiser rather edgy. So when the a ship steaming under absolutely unknown flag had been spotted, the cruiser’s captain jumped to the opportunity to get at least some entertainment. The ship was ordered to stop and when the order was ignored a shot had been fired across its bow to make a point. The boarding crew had been sent to check the papers, cargo and whatever else including the personal possessions.

On the “Panther” its passengers also had been bored to death by a long trip and, the main available entertainment being drinking, it is not a big surprise that the whole noble company was more than a little bit tipsy and, being top aristocrats, got very irritated by the whole episode. Captain of the yacht was trying to calm down his passengers while trying to explain to the British officer with whom he is dealing but failed on both accounts. The British officer knew enough of the German to figure out that “englische Scheiße” [7] has an offensive meaning and took it personally. Pushing and shoving on both sides followed and while it was impossible to find out who fired the first shot, the result was there: Prince Charles Wilhelm was dead. Duke Bernhard sobered enough to restore his grasp of English and shout: “you just killed nephew of three emperors!” Commander of the boarding crew may not fully grasp the full extent of what just happened but he had enough of a common sense to leave yacht in a hurry and inform his commander about what just happened. In a meantime the radioman of “Panther” sent a message: “Prince Charles Wilhelm was shot by the British.” It was picked up by few ships sailing close enough and by radio stations in French and German South-West Africa.

The war with the Boers was damaging to the British popularity, an idea of stopping and searching the neutral ships definitely did not improve it but “the ‘Panther’ accident” just destroyed whatever was left of it. Stopping a ship in the neutral waters was an arrogance but stopping a ship under the royal standard and killing a member of a royal family who was closely connected to three imperial families was something defying a definition.

The continental press picked up the story and the drunken accident grew into a sinister plot (by you can guess whom) with a purpose to prevent a valiant Prince from going to fight on a side of the freedom-loving Boers. Portraits of the late prince and his widow had been selling as the hot cakes surpassing in popularity even the photos of the movie stars.
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The late Prince became, posthumously, Prince Charming and his wife, Fedora, a popular tragic figure and even a subject of a poem “Fedora’s Grief” by a popular Russian poet Korney Chukovsky in which, in the best tradition of the Russian Decadence, the (unnamed) hero travels to Africa disregarding warnings of his wife and ends up being tortured and killed by the evil brigand Barmalei.[8]

But this was all just a noise. The serious part was that, no matter how you are trying to slice and dice it, the British warship did stop in the neutral waters a ship sailing under the royal standard, the boarding crew was warned about presence of the royalties on board but acted violently toward them and killed one of them. Even if the first shot had been fired by a late prince, he was obviously acting in the self-defense when being assaulted.

Apologies from the British government were rejected and the French, German and Dutch government demanded that the whole boarding team and the ship’s commander would be delivered to the Hague (him being Orange-Nassau) for the trial. As expected, this demand was declined and the British counter-offer to conduct investigation and trial in Britain was rejected.

Situation was not, yet, catastrophic but it was definitely beyond “serious”.

___________
[1] As you may notice, there is nothing about an alternative outcome in the case the doctor’s instructions are being followed. The doctors are too smart to be caught in a trap of taking responsibility.
[2] “You'll fall into the ditch,
You will drown in a swamp.
Don't go, wait,
Come back home!”
[3]
«Цесаревич Николай,
Если царствовать придется,
Никогда не забывай,
Что полиция дерется.»
“Tsesarevich Nicholas,
If you’ll have to reign
Never forget
That police is beating the people.”
[4] In OTL chief of staff; the army was commanded by Prince Constantine who ITTL is already a king and does not lead an army.
[5] Credit for this genealogy goes to @Valena.
[6] AFAIK, Duke Bernhard III of Saxe-Meiningen (in 1913 he was just heir to the Duchy) was not involved in anything of the kind. The whole schema inspired by OTL Prince George of Denmark and Greece and his uncle Valdemar of Denmark. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_George_of_Greece_and_Denmark#Marriage_and_family To make the long story short, they had special relations “forever” with a full knowledge of Valdemar’s wife. After George married, Valdemar’s wife explained situation to George’s wife who not just accepted it but became a lover of Valdemar (with George’s full approval and, seemingly in his presence) and then was engaged in a “passionate flirtation” with Valdemar’s son. “In neither case does it appear that George objected, or felt obliged to give the matter any attention” Valdemar’s wife was seemingly OK with all of the above. Then there was a “passionate flirtation” with Aristide Briand. So ITTL is relatively straightforward and simple comparing to the real life. Anyway, my apologies to the ghost of the late Duke Bernhard. 😂
[7] British s—t
[8] As with the hero’s bio, credit for the idea goes to @Valena. Quote in epigraph is, indeed, from “Fedora’s Grief” written by K.Chukovsky. It was a challenge to find in it a piece fitting the narrative because this is actually a children verse about a woman (Fedora) who did not wash her kitchenware and, as a result, all the household items fled from her and returned only after she promised to keep them clean. The quoted piece is a part of her plea to the fleeing things. A part about Barmalei is from his another poem for the children. Needless to say that at the time in question Chukovsky was not yet writing verses for the children: he was a literary critic, correspondent and translator. AFAIK, he had little or nothing to do with the Russian Decadance either. 😂
 
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